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One Quarter in the Books

by on November 23, 2008 in Uncategorized - 361 Comments

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With the Leafs blowing 3-0 and 4-2 leads, eventually leading to a 5-4 overtime loss, we have now hit what can pretty much  be considered the quarter pole of the ’08-’09 season.

Some Quick Thoughts on what’s transpired so far:

- Hagman: Boy was this ever a great signing by Cliff Fletcher. Currently on pace for 26 goals and 56 points, leads all Leaf forwards in TOI with over 18 minutes/night. Brings a ton of energy every night, and will only be celebrating his 29th birthday in about 2 weeks time.

- Toskala: Not pretty. 3.23 GAA, .878 SV% coming into tonight’s play, and those stats got worse. The year Andrew Raycroft got eaten alive by Toronto fans, he put up a 2.99 GAA and .894 SV% even though Toskala has the benefit of a better defensive corps and a defensive minded coach.

- Grabovski: Huge surprise so far this season, yet another shrewd acquisition. Despite a slow start, he is currently on pace for 37 goals and 58 points. I think he will remain a legitimate Calder all season long.

- Stajan: What the heck has this guy been eating? 2 more points tonight, and could’ve had another one if he convereted the penalty shot. 19 points in 19 games played so far, and they really haven’t been flukes either. He’s looked very good playing on that top line.

- Steen: Ugh. 4 points in 20 games and playing on the 4th line. Ron Wilson seems to have some kind of magic formula that he gives to players who are benched (see White, Blake, Stajan), so hopefully Alex gets a dose of that soon. His protective “prospect” bubble is slowly starting to fade, and with a new GM on the verge of coming in, he better show some signs of life soon or his days in Toronto may be numbered.

Food For Thought: Comparisons at the 20 game mark

’08 Leafs: 7 – 8 – 5, 19 points, 63 goals for (3.15 GFA), 72 goal against (3.60 GAA), -9 goal differential

’09 Leafs: 7 – 8 – 5, 19 points, 62 goals for (3.10 GFA), 69 goals against (3.45 GAA), -7 goal differential

Statisically, this team looks eerily similar to the team they iced last season isn’t it? The main difference? A sense of pride, enthusiasm and general optimism toward the future. These players’ best years aren’t behind them, they haven’t even begun yet.

So what are your thoughts on the Leafs start to the season thus far? 10 Questions:

1) Who is your 20-game mark Leaf MVP?

2) Who has been the biggest surprise?

3) Who has been the biggest disappointment?

4) Is this team underachieving, meeting expectations or overachieving so far?

5) Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from now?

6) Is Mikhail Grabovski for real? Where do you see Grabovski as a player 3 years from now?

7) Has keeping Luke Schenn up past 9 games been a good decision?

8) Which offseason move has been the best? Which one has been the worst?

9) Will this team make the playoffs?

10) Predict the Leafs record at the 40 game mark.

Always a pleasure,

Alex Tran

[email protected]

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  • Scot Loucks

    Great post Alex…. seems you and I had something to say at the same time :)

    Cheers

    1) Who is your 20-game mark Leaf MVP?

    Stajan…. he has made sure they had another scoring line.

    2) Who has been the biggest surprise?

    Van Ryn…. Who would have thunk he would be so much better than McCabe?

    3) Who has been the biggest disappointment?

    Blake… without a doubt. He has been given every chance by Wilson and minus a couple games he should be gone.

    4) Is this team underachieving, meeting expectations or overachieving so far?

    Overachieving …. without a doubt…. They can actually score and the kids (who the leafs weren’t supposed to have) are pretty special.

    5) Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from now?

    Third line centre…. and a good one. With Steen as a third line winger… a good one.

    6) Is Mikhail Grabovski for real? Where do you see Grabovski as a player 3 years from now?

    Totally…. the guy has it all. Major talent here.

    7) Has keeping Luke Schenn up past 9 games been a good decision?

    Tough one…. still not sure it was the right decision. I think he should have been sent back to Junior to work on his offense, to lead the Canadians in the WJC and not have to play thru the current version of the Leafs.

    8) Which offseason move has been the best? Which one has been the worst?

    Hollwweg and Mayer were the worst.
    Grabovski was the best.

    9) Will this team make the playoffs?

    Maybe…. but who cares? This team is building ….. If Sundin comes back they make the playoffs and will be in tough against the real teams in the east (Boston, Philadelphia).

    10) Predict the Leafs record at the 40 game mark.

    LOL …. Five Hundred.

    Cheers

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  • Burn

    1) Who is your 20-game mark Leaf MVP?
    Stajan – I think he really getting it done at both ends of the ice (especially on offense) and really becoming a leader (Which I said he would).

    2) Who has been the biggest surprise?
    I think there have been a few nice surprises – Stajan(For his improved play), Van Ryn has been solid all year (lot more stable than McCabe) and Grabovski (I didn’t imagine he’d be this good/proficient)

    3) Who has been the biggest disappointment?
    I’m going with a trio on this one too. Blake (I think we all know and agree why on this one). Toskala just hasn’t been getting it done. Finally, I’m going to say Steen (2 goals, 4 Pts in 20 games isn’t good enough. He doesn’t even look like he getting chances. He’s not dangerous when he’s on the ice. I really think he’s going to be the first to go when Burke get here.)

    4) Is this team underachieving, meeting expectations or overachieving so far?
    Overachieving

    5) Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from
    now?
    I think he’s for real. I can see him a couple years from now as a pretty good second line center who can score about 25 goals and about 55PTS.

    6) Is Mikhail Grabovski for real? Where do you see Grabovski as a player 3 years from now?
    I think he for real too!! I see him as a guy who could be a really good second line center or so-so first liner who can score 30 goals and about 65PTS.

    7) Has keeping Luke Schenn up past 9 games been a good decision?
    I don’t really know. I can see the benefit of both. I really wanted him to go back to Junior though. I think that the WJC would have been invaluable for him. I do see RW’s point though that if he so much better than the rest of the guys in junior that he could develop bad habits.

    8) Which offseason move has been the best? Which one has been the worst?
    Best – Grabovski, Hagman and Van Ryn.
    Wost – Meyers, Hollweg and not moving Toskala when his value was highest (assuming there was interest).

    9) Will this team make the playoffs?
    Don’t think so.

    10) Predict the Leafs record at the 40 game mark.
    .500

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  • LT73

    1) Who is your 20-game mark Leaf MVP?

    Grabovski

    (I’m just concerned about his attitude. Has that almost-classic Russian air of indifference about him. Will this, and the realization that he is our most talented player cause us problems in the dressing room in the future)

    2) Who has been the biggest surprise?

    Grabovski

    3) Who has been the biggest disappointment?

    Alex Steen

    (I expect less from Jason Blake. He’s a 20 goal man in my eyes. I think people get disappointed in Blake because with his speed he should be able to do more, but not I. He’s not now, nor will he ever be, smart enough, on the ice)

    4) Is this team underachieving, meeting expectations or overachieving so far?

    Overachieving

    (Most people pegged the Leafs as last overall in the NHL by a wide margin. I just don’t see it. We’re too fast, and too hard working for that to happen.)

    5) Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from now?

    (Great question. I do believe Matty is for real. He’s a very smart player, which seems to make up for his lack of strength and tenacity – something of which I hope evolves over time. If I’m the Leafs I want to develop Matt Stajan as a pure playmaker.)

    6) Is Mikhail Grabovski for real? Where do you see Grabovski as a player 3 years from now?

    Grabovski is for real. This guy is undoubtedly the quickest and most talented player on our team. He may also be one of our best defensive forwards as well – He always helps out our D, and always seems to come out of the corner with the puck. Get him a playmaking winger and another winger with his sort of skills and look out. He may just score 40 goals.

    7) Has keeping Luke Schenn up past 9 games been a good decision?

    Let me just start by saying that I love Luke Schenn. Having said that, no. He’s just not developed enough for a full season with the Leafs, and he’s not getting better either. I think this move is going to look worse as the season goes on. Damn.

    8) Which offseason move has been the best? Which one has been the worst?

    The best – Hagman. The worst – Perhaps, not signing Wellwood (couldn’t the Leafs have done what Vancouver did, and hire this guy a full time baby sitter?)

    9) Will this team make the playoffs?

    No.

    10) Predict the Leafs record at the 40 game mark.

    Less than .500 – On their way towards drafting a top-flight player.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    I think Grabovski is a legit 2nd line winger in the future, good for 60-70 points.

    I think Stajan is an excellent 3rd line centre, capable of 50+ points.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Leafs at the 40 game mark: Probably around 38-40 points.

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  • http://www.leftcoastlock.blogspot.com/ blurr1974

    1 – Hagman. He’s awesome!

    2 – Stajan. Never could have projected him as a point a game player, but he’s actually making me think, maybe he could be a #1 center…

    3 – Toskala – I expected a lot more from this guy, but so far all he’s given me is nostalgia for Raycroft…

    4 – Overachieving. They were pegged as last place, and they’re scrappy enough to squeak in as an 8th seed

    5 – Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from now?

    6 – Grabs, still too early to tell. This is his first stint with real ice time, but he sure seems to be the real deal…

    7 – Yes. He has not looked out of place, and can only grow and gain valuable experience for next year.

    8 – The Grabvoski and Hagman deals are by far the best moves. Worst is looking to be the Mayers and Hollweg signings…

    9 – It’ll be touch and go, but so long as they don’t have their annual swoon in January, anything is possible.

    10 – I suck at these, so here’s a WAG – 17 – 13 – 10

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  • http://leafs.hockeyanalysis.com [email protected]

    Decent dissection of the season thus far.

    I’m not sold on the idea that Steen will be gone. He is a defensively minded player with a skill set that hasn’t been tapped quite yet. I’d say Burke might foresee him as the Leafs future Sammi Pahlsson… but that might be overestimating things a tad at this point.

    On to your questions:

    1) Who is your 20-game mark Leaf MVP?

    This is a toss up for me, between Nik Antropov and Nik Hagman. Those two have been the Leafs most consistent offensive performers so far this season, and they’re a threat offensively every time they’re on the ice. They also both play solid D.

    Stajan is getting a bit too much credit for his play recently, and frankly I think a lot of it has to do with Antropov and Ponikarovsky, who are sort of flying under the radar – just like they seemed to with Mats between them. Leafs fans can’t get past it I guess.

    2) Who has been the biggest surprise?

    I’d have to say Stajan. I was amongst his biggest detractors coming into this year. He had had tonnes of opportunity and had yet to develop much scoring punch. His production so far is extremely unexpected. I don’t really know if it will continue either.

    3) Who has been the biggest disappointment?

    For me personally it would be Steen. 4 points is a let down. Toskala would be the biggest disappointment on the team though.

    4) Is this team underachieving, meeting expectations or overachieving so far?

    They’re roughly meeting my expectations. Not those of the masses though apparently.

    5) Is Matt Stajan for real? Where do you see Stajan as a player 3 years from now?

    Unfortunately I don’t think he’ll keep up a point per game pace. Nobody seems to expect him to in response to this question so far, which is why it’s weird they keep saying “yes he’s for real”. If he were a point per game player, they should be predicting 80 points a year for him… not second line centre getting you 50 points. I’m a bit confused by that.

    6) Is Mikhail Grabovski for real? Where do you see Grabovski as a player 3 years from now?

    Centering the Leafs second line. He’s definitely a keeper, and his offensive instincts and speed are awesome.

    7) Has keeping Luke Schenn up past 9 games been a good decision?

    Nope. Said I didn’t think so at the time, and I still don’t think it was.

    8) Which offseason move has been the best? Which one has been the worst?

    Best – signing Hagman.
    Worst – Trading for Hollweg and Mayers.

    9) Will this team make the playoffs?

    Nope.

    10) Predict the Leafs record at the 40 game mark.

    13-19-8

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  • Mark Ribble

    Great post Alex….
    Here’s my two cents…
    1. My 20-game leaf MVP is Hagman. This guy is incredible with the puck and just as impressive without.
    2. Biggest surprise so far for me has been the play of Van Ryn, up until his injury. Projected by many to be the 6th, 7th or 8th d-man, he led the defence corp in many categories until he got hurt.
    3. The biggest disappointment for me has been Blake. I really thought he would have a good year, but I haven’t been too impressed yet.
    4. I think they are meeting expectations. Mine anyway.
    5. Matt Stajan has come on like a house afire that last little while. I think we’re finally seeing what he’s capable of. He’s obviously bought into Wilson’s system and may flourish for many years to come.
    6. I think Grabs is everything he was touted to be when acquired. A speedy creative forward with incredible puck handling ability. If he can stay focused he will remain a 50-60 point man.
    7. I am sitting on the fence on this one. He certainly played well enough over the first 9 games to deserve a spot. He’s appeared more human since then, but still a strong d-man.
    8. Best off-season aquisition: A Tie between Grabovski and Hagman. Worst: It appears to be Mayers. I expected more from him.
    9. Will this team make the playoffs? I’d like to think they have a shot, but unless Toskala gets with the program in a big way, I don’t think so.
    10. The Leafs, at the 40-game mark will be 16-16-8

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  • Richard

    1) Stajan, he’s silently becoming the team’s leader.

    2) Grabovski, great start, but I’m not sold just yet on his defensive positioning.

    3) So far, Kaberle, he’s the team’s only all-star, and he hasn’t preformed that way.

    4) With out a doubt overachieving, but can they keep it up?

    5) Stajan will be a solid second line center, hopefully in the same class as Mike Fischer.

    6) Sadly, I think Grabovski will fade over time, too many bad memories of Sergei Berzin come to mind.

    7) I’d say yes, i don’t think that he’d get much better in the minors.

    8) Best: Trading up for Luke Schenn? If that doesn’t count, signing Hagman to a fair price, he’s beginning to look like a legitimate NHL threat.

    9) No, they’ll fade down the stretch

    10) 13-19-8

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