Post-Game: Firesale? How ’bout a mini-sale

by on December 22, 2008 in Uncategorized - 33 Comments

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Ron Wilson appears to have assembled a winning combination up front. After an 8-5 beating at the hands of the Boston Bruins, Wilson re-united the line of Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan and Alexei Ponikarovsky atop the roster, kept in tact the dynamic third line of Jason Blake, Dominic Moore and Jeremy Williams and it’s resulted in two dominating wins by a collective score of 13-5. For the first time since early October, the Leafs have surpassed the .500 mark at 14-13-6 after winning five of their last six.

To say the Stajan-centered top unit was superlative in tonight’s 6-2 win over Atlanta would be an understatement. The trio combined for three of the Leafs’ six goals, including a beauty of a tic-tac-toe finished off by Stajan. Their offensive-zone pressure was relentless and they possessed the puck for an estimated 90% of their time-on-ice. Stajan looked like a bona fide number one center as he performed perhaps his best ever game in a Leafs uni. Thrashers head coach John Anderson looked like he didn’t know what just hit his team, although that look may be on permanent status as of October. The trio had three points a piece on the night and even managed to turn an empty net goal into a thing of beauty.

The Leafs’ third-line looked similarly inspired as they caused problems for the Thrashers’ maligned D with speed and finesse. Jeremy Williams sniped again to record his fifth goal in six call-up appearances. It’s safe to say we can just about slash that call-up label. You can’t say enough about his release and offensive bent around goal.

The Leafs’ offense is firing on just about all cylinders at the moment. The lone exception I would make is for Lee Stempniak. Stempniak’s been tried in every situation with a plethora of different line-mates but can’t seem to find chemistry no matter where he plays. I guess the only option is to hope Stempniak comes around and establishes a connection somewhere in the line-up, but I certainly don’t like to see Kulemin playing eight minutes on the fourth line while Stempniak provides a dead weight on the Leafs’ second unit.

Onto Justin Pogge. The Leafs as a team did a tremendous job defensively in blocking shooting lanes and limiting the Thrashers’ forwards to peripheral shots which made the night fairly easy on Pogge for the most part as he faced but 21 shots. The 22-year-old made his stamp on the game with a sensational toe-save in the second period. Otherwise, he was there when called upon and couldn’t be blamed for either of the Thrashers’ goals. He was very nonchalant for a youngster admittedly nervous before the game. It was an impressive debut performance and it should be interesting to see if he gets the call against Dallas tomorrow night in the ACC. I would think after this performance Wilson and Burke will want to see how he handles the next step, performing in front of a home crowd against a better team (although an underachieving one standings-wise).

Defensively, the Leafs have limited the opposition to but 41 shots over the past two outings.

It’s games like these that make you truly realize that the Leafs are not a bottom three team by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I don’t think they’re even bottom five.

The Leafs’ success has been keyed by their now-seventh placed offense (just passed the Capitals). Repeat – seventh best offense. When you look at the forward core, it’s by no means veteran heavy. The top performers up front have been Matty Stajan, Antropov, Poni, Grabovski, Williams and to a lesser extent Kulemin and Mitchell. This is not an offense that’s being kept afloat by veterans that are on their last legs. When you hear talk of this roster being “blown-up” by Brian Burke, I can only wonder what there is exactly to blow up? Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Antropov have proven the real deal sans Sundin and are just entering the prime of their careers. Williams has the potential of becoming a top six sniper from the looks of it and Grabovski has also shown promise. There is definitely a need to peddle one of Kubina or Kaberle (and possibly Toskala) in order to pick up an additional first-rounder so that Brian Burke can locate a couple of top six forwards via the draft. A pair of skilled forwards are what this team lacks. I’m not sure if the need to re-build goes too much further than that. To move future components such as Stajan, Antropov and Poni as has been suggested seems like backwards thinking.

But maybe it’s the win talking.

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  • vesku35

    Alec, this was a fantastic post. Could not have said it any better myself.

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  • Burn

    Nice job Alec!!! I ‘d like to see Pogge again tomorrow at home. I thought he had a real solid game. He made 2 beauty stops, and was solid the rest of the way. Pogge was names 3rd star!! The Stajan and Moore lines were amazing tonight!!

    What more can you say about Williams?? He’s here to stay now, he has to be!! The guys a sniper.

    All around solid game!!

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  • http://admin Alec Brownscombe

    Not that it matters ;) , but the Leafs are now one point out of a playoff spot. Just sayin’

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  • deMarcus

    The Ragin’ Freakin’ Stajan

    Great blog.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    It’s probably the win talking Alec =)

    We’re seeing the Jekyll side of the Leafs right now.

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  • vesku35

    You’re more than a little biased towards tanking though Alex, seeing as how you have undying love for prospects haha (pssst, they turn out being NHLers just like the rest of them)

    So you want to re-build a youth movement (meaning trade Stajan, Antropov, Poni). Why exactly? You’ll get a low first rounder for Antropov. Antropov is in his prime and he’s a 30 goal scorer. Why would you make that deal? I bet that low first rounder doesn’t turn out as good as Antropov.

    Ponikarovsky will retrieve a 2nd rounder at most. If we’re lucky, that second rounder will be as good as Poni.

    Stajan is the same, a 2nd or 3rd we would be lucky to get a player as good as he is.

    As Alec said, thats backwards thinking. This doesn’t need to be done all through the draft, it seems many like yourself are ignoring the talent that we already

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  • vesku35

    …have

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  • http://admin Alec Brownscombe

    Exactly, vesku. We would be dealing young players for picks which would, if we’re lucky, wind up as good as the players we are trading to begin with.

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  • Troy

    I agree.

    This team can compete with any team right now when they play there ‘Jekyll’ game, and they have, I believe, 7 rookies on the roster. Those rookies will develop over the next two years and put this team over the top with Pogge back-stopping.

    Burke could look like a genius by not doing anything but sign these guys on long-term contracts (with one or two exceptions maybe).

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  • Troy

    …In the mean-time, keep the draft picks they’ve got.

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  • Jason L

    Great positive blog Alec!

    I have never been part of tank nation, and I don’t see the rationale or have the patience to see that through. I think the idea is to draft smart, especially if you are out of the top five or ten. Anyone can draft a Crosby or Ovechkin, but it takes something special to find a Zetterberg or Datsyuk. I can’t imagine watching the Leafs in the bottom five for the next three years just to build on a couple kids that you hope will turn out. I think we have to keep in mind that franchise players like that don’t come around very often, unless you are Pittsburgh and have Gary pulling for you in the “behind closed doors” draft lottery.

    Although Tavares and Hedman are exceptional talents, I don’t believe they are on the same level as Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, etc. and I won’t be horribly upset to not get them, especially if it means watching a young, exciting, above .500 leaf team.

    Hopefully Burke does not blow this up, but concentrates on improving at every position, while drafting intelligently; someday finding that hidden 7th round gem.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Let’s not forget that in addition to getting prospects in return, you’re also getting cap space.

    With the cap crunch due to set in because of an economic downturn, you constantly need picks, prospects, and young players on cheap, entry-level contracts.

    I’m not advocating trading everyone for mid round picks, but like Alec, I think that you gotta move some of the big cap hits on defense.

    Antropov I think can be an integral part of a very good team.

    Ponikarovsky I’m a little skeptical about. Breakout year or career year at age 28?

    Stajan I’m still a little skeptical about too. I don’t think we should deal him, but I would wait a while before counting on him as a key cog in the future plans.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Jason L, not even Malkin was expected to be Malkin good.

    For what it’s worth, Hedman and Tavares are going into the draft with a heckuva lot more expectations and “projected potential” than Malkin did.

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  • Jason L

    I would also love to see Kulemin back on the Hagman, Grabovski line. I thought he has really progressed throughout the season. Besides, I can’t help but think he would have buried at least one or two of the chances that Stempniak missed.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    On another note, how about that Bobby Ryan?

    I’ve definitely underestimated his NHL readiness.

    21 years old with 14 points, +10 rating, in 16 games played so far for the Ducks.

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  • http://admin Alec Brownscombe

    Could not agree more with you Jason on all accounts (I don’t trust that we’ll wind up with either of the top two picks even if we were to finish last. I’m highly skeptical of the lottery system).

    Plus, as you said, banking on a couple of kids to turn out has its risks if you’ve tanked in order to obtain them. It’s worked out in a few instances – Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh – but also failed in others – Columbus, Florida, Atlanta.

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  • Troy

    The way the cap rises each season, I don’t think it will be much of a problem in the near future.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    “Montreal Canadiens president Pierre Boivin said yesterday that next season’s NHL salary cap will go down if revenue and the Canadian dollar remain low, but a league source said the players will actually take a hit to their wallets in a different fashion.

    The source said that barring an unexpected turnaround in the North American economy, the players will lose all of their escrow money next season – millions of dollars in salary – for the first time since the system was established after the 2004-05 lockout. That will effectively cut the salary cap by almost $9-million (all currency U.S.) from this season’s $56.7-million.

    “Next season, the cap won’t go down much because the selling season [for NHL teams] is largely complete,” the source said. “But through escrow next season, the cap will go down to about $48-million.”

    The NHL executive, who wished to be unidentified, said the salary cap will officially make just a small drop next season to $55-million at worst. That would be the first decrease since the cap was introduced in the summer of 2005.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081120.NHLESCROW20/TPStory/Sports/columnists

    Potentially just the tip of the iceberg.

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  • Jason L

    I like Tavares, he has looked good this season and in the U19 pre season. So far, Hodgson and Ellis have impressed me the most. Hedman ran hot and cold in the game against Canada, but when he was on, he was pretty amazing. I still really don’t like his lack of physicality, and I wonder how that will translate on the smaller ice surface against NHL caliber players. But, I will reserve my judgment when I have seen more of him.

    Unfortunately Alex, projected potential doesn’t mean a whole lot. There have been many first round, sure fire draft picks that were total busts, or went on to marginal careers. I was once expected to go in the first two rounds of the OHL entry draft. A blown ACL, MCL and I am now watching hockey and and commenting on this site. I will take your word for it when it comes to prospects, a topic you seem to know a lot about; which is something I only pay attention to during the U19 tourny.

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  • http://admin Alec Brownscombe

    I’d also like to see Kulemin moved back up to play alongside Hagman and Grabovski, that was a dynamite second line for a good stretch of games.

    Here’s the problem – I don’t think Stempniak needs a message sent to him by way of fourth line demotion. Stempniak’s problem right now seems to be a lack of confidence more than anything. Demoting him to the fourth line obviously won’t help in that regard. And demoting a player you acquired in exchange for two of your former first round draft picks doesn’t project well.

    But it’s tough to ignore the possibility of creating a really strong three line attack.

    Poni – Stajan – Antropov
    Hagman – Grabo – Kulemin
    Blake – Moore – Williams

    Nice.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    It’s the win talking, Alec. :-)

    The Leafs did a nice job, but then again, this was Atlanta they were playing … one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

    Realistically, though, some guys will have to be moved. I do agree that Stajan should stay, after all he is only 25 and has shown he has a bright future. He is versatile, and will be an established veteran leader by the time the Leafs are competitors.

    Antropov, on the other hand, has an injury history, and will be in his 30s by the time this team is ready to compete. Further, he has never been a “go-to” player until this year … nine years into his career. My feeling is, if you can get something for him now, from a team looking to make a playoff run, you do it. There is no guarantee that he re-signs next year, and if he gets 35 goals or so, will his price as a UFA be worth it, considering his age and the likelihood of injury?

    If it is between keeping Antro and Poni, I’d rather keep Poni … less of an injury history, skates better, uses his body more … basically he is less talented offensively but plays a more complete game. Poni has shown he can be effective on any of the top three lines, and that versatility may make him worthy of keeping around. Plus, given his streakiness, I seriously doubt what the market for him may be … I think he falls into the “best trade is no trade” category, personally.

    Kaberle should go, also, if for no other reason than no Leaf player will command a larger return. Kubina, I don’t know. There is something to be said for a veteran presence on the blueline who has the trust of the coach … and we all know how much Wilson likes him. I would listen to offers, but would only move him in a sweetheart deal … if all that is offered is the equivalent of a 2nd rounder, then the Leafs are arguably better off keeping him. Some large contracts will be necessary, after all, for these guys to remain near the cap floor.

    Which brings us to Toskala. Another Wilson favorite, and given his recent play, he may be unmoveable. At least, not moveable for anything useful. One line of thinking is, the best thing for Pogge’s development might be for him to have to earn the starting role, rather than inherit the job. Going into next season with Toskala in his last year of his deal, and Pogge having to fight, as the backup, to prove that he is the guy may not be all that bad of an approach. I’m thinking a 50-30 game split (appx) would be the perfect apprenticeship for Pogge, and if he shows he is capable, the starter’s job is his the following year. Yeah, so you get nothing for Toskala trade-wise under that approach … but you do (arguably) get a better Justin Pogge out of it.

    Speaking of #29 …

    Pogge played very well, as did the defense which held the opposition to the perimeter for much of the game. When the Thrasher players finally decided to show up in the third, their defensive woes had already gotten the better of them. It will be interesting to see how Pogge handles a “good” team, if given the chance … I am inclined to hold off on joining the “goalie of the future” bandwagon until we’ve seen more of him in pressure situations. I will say that his performance tonight has left me cautiously optimistic about his future as a #1.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    In other words, I am not a fan of tank nation … more a fan of rebuild-while-maintaining-a-core nation. We’re a small group, but we’re growing.

    I think if Burke can move Antropov and Kaberle for decent returns, the Leafs will be in a good position come draft day, and the start of next season.

    BTW if Antropov were signed through the next couple seasons I would probably advocate keeping him. However, his pending UFA status, coupled with him being on pace for around 35 goals or so, makes me nervous about the kind of contract he would want next season. Jason Blake money would be the starting point in negotiations … so we’d be looking at a 29-year-old wanting a 4-5 year deal at a minimum of $4million. Given that Blake’s contract is unmoveable, do we want another $4mil contract for a player with an injury history, who is coming off a career year that he has never duplicated in the past? Sounds like the dreaded Contract Year Performace where athletes raise their game in UFA years, get the big money, and then never come close to the same production again. We’ve seen it time and again — why go down that road if a team desperate to get into the playoffs offers up a first, or a top prospect?

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  • Troy

    Alex, thanks for that info.
    I forget about the state of the economy being the way it is. (I’ve returned to College as a mature student, therefore it hasn’t yet affected me).

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  • Blair

    It was said earlier this season by Leafs management that they would rather assemble a dynasty than a team with a one off shot at the cup (think of how Ottawa rose and fell). A chance to rebuild properly doesn’t come along often and it should be taken full advantage of. Sure Antropov and Poni aren’t very old right now, but if the Leafs don’t compete for the cup for another three years they will be veterans and probably not very good ones.
    Strike while the iron is hot. If Burke is smart he peddles these players that don’t make up the physicality component of his projected team while they are scoring machines. Their value may have been low to start the season but when a player is playing great currently it’s hard for other teams to not be tempted to give up more. Look at Doug Weight resurging on the island. He suddenly has trade value again. I doubt the Leafs will ever get more out of Poni than right now and I also doubt they will ever get more for him than right now.

    Burke could set a record for number of first round picks in this years draft.

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  • Wook

    Gents, great discussion based on an excellent blog.

    Alec, I have been meaning to thank you for starting up a site dedicated to blogging about the Leafs. I must say that the timing could not have been more appropriate considering the current status of our beloved team.

    I enjoy reading the comments on this site (much more than the “others”) as they reflect a nice blend of thought and passion. I am generally more of a reader than a writer, but this thread has hit a personal note.

    Many years have passed since my time in the GTA, but I haven’t missed a single Leafs game since, both at the Saddledome and more recently at the TD Garden. Wearing my Leafs jersey to these games have been a proud tradition, but I am finding it to be increasingly difficult to do so.

    Case in point, my wife gave me a lecture last Thursday night on the responsibilities of being a husband and father of a toddler. This was shortly after her having learned that a shoving match had taken place during the exit from the Garden and I had a guy’s throat in my left hand. I am right-handed by the way.

    I consider myself to be a very nice guy, and I am quite shameful of my actions. I don’t know why I reacted in such a manner as I am quite used to being yelled at by drunken Bruins fans (followed by chants of Canada-sucks and U-S-A). Perhaps it was having learned during the game that Mats had signed with the Canucks. Perhaps it was the horrible goaltending by Toskala, Cujo, followed by Toskala again. Perhaps it was the quarter that was thrown at my back coming out of the game.

    Having a few days to cool off and read this thread helped me to finally realize the basis of my ephemeral madness – I had subconsciously faced the reality that I may have to literally sit through and drink eight dollar drafts for five more years of this “rebuilding process”.

    It is really easy for me to sit behind my laptop screen and agree with everyone that we have to rebuild the right way. However, the few times I get to see my boys in action, I really wish that there was a fast-forward button.

    Like what others have pointed out, what good will Antropov and Ponikarovsky do for the rebuilding process? Even if we may not get players of their talent levels back through draft picks, we will have extra shots at using the experience of Nonis and others in the management to potentially grab some surprises, especially in a deep draft class.

    I agree with Blair in that I do not wish for the Leafs to experience what the Senators are facing this year and many more to come. I think that we have the right pieces right now to move, and I for one am willing to sit through five more years of this in my Leafs jersey. All I want is hope (e.g. young prospects), and I do think that we have a great coaching staff and management to shape our hope for the long term. Plus, having Burke as the GM, we are bound to see some crazy maneuvers to keep us entertained during this spectacular rebuilding process.

    I think that it is great right now that most of our movable pieces are playing well – keep them riding high and trade them for the future at their peaks. Value pieces like Hagman and Stempniak that cannot be moved this year can be moved next year. Heck, at the pace that Blake is going now, maybe he will be movable with a bag of pucks.

    Here’s to a hope of a full barn, and Go Leafs Go!

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