Leafs Must Be Patient with Pogge

I like Toskala … but there is no way the Leafs will get a first rounder for him.

It’s not even his play this year … it’s the fact that he is in his 30s and has never been a starter until last season … and his numbers last season, on the whole, were above-average at best.

He has one year left on his deal, he was okay as a starter his only year in that role, and has struggled mightily this season. How does any of that equate to a first-round return?

If I’m looking for a netminder, why would I move a first rounder for Toskala, if Khabibulin is available? Who would better help my team, the until-recently career backup, or the guy who’s been a starter for most of his career, and won a Stanley Cup?

Just because JFJ gave up a lot for Toskala, doesn’t mean anyone can expect a lot in return for him. His performance simply doesn’t warrant a first-rounder, nor does anything he’s done in his career to date.

Like I said, I like the guy, I think he is an above-average goaltender who is having a tough season … but above-average and 1st round pick do not, and never will, compute.

Look, if I’m an opposition GM, and I’m interested in Toskala (though why I would be right now, I don’t know), all I’ve got to do is point to the Huet deal.

Yeah, a bunch of media guys thought Montreal could have gotten a 1st. Fact is, they did not … clearly no GM felt that he was worth that. Which is all that matters.

Statistics do matter in a trade. And Huet has outperformed Toskala. So if he is only worth a 2nd rounder in the eyes of opposition GMs, how is Vesa worth a first? First-rounders are given up for players that GMs believe can be difference-makers in the playoffs, and I don’t buy that Vesa has proven that he can be that guy.

Look, I’m not knocking him. I like him, I think he is a decent goaltender … certainly his skill set is well above average, but his positioning, and his focus, are consistently inconsistent, at best. He is good, but not great. And that’s what separates him from the goaltenders who are worth a 1st rounder, such as Khabibulin … who, unlike Toskala, has a fair amount of playoff experience.

I think the equivalent of the Huet deal is what we can expect for Vesa. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing. Leaf fans all want to believe this guy can get a 1st rounder, largely because one was part of the package to acquire him in the first place. But his performance hasn’t equated to that, and that is how other GMs will judge his value.

You’ll say he plays for a bad team. A fair and valid point. However, I would point out that the only stat that really matters for goaltenders is save percentage. GAA and Wins are false stats … they are impacted by the quality of the team’s defense and offense, moreso than the goaltender’s actual skill. Save %, on the other hand, is the real indicator.

For instance, on a lousy defensive team that is giving up 40 shots per game, a GAA of nearly 3.00 is not at all unreasonable to expect. That equates to 37 saves on those 40 shots, which adds up to a very solid .925 save percentage. The goaltender has a lousy GAA, but the save percentage indicates that he has been a great performer on a lousy team, and could be a real difference-maker for a good team. Which makes a first round pick a worthwhile return for that goaltender.

Now let’s look at Vesa Toskala’s numbers.

30 games played, 13-10-5 record. Respectable, but since he plays on a team that has been scoring a fair bit, it is not a fully convincing stat.

3.30 GAA. Doesn’t look good, but then again the Leafs have not been the most defensively-sound team this year. Let’s check the shots per game before making a judgment call on this one.

794 shots against, which equals roughly 26 per game. Which means on average he is stopping between 22 and 23 of 26 shots per game. Or, allowing 3 to 4 goals on 26 shots, on average. That doesn’t exactly spell dependable.

.882 save percentage. 41st in the league. Which means that the other 29 starting goaltenders, and another 11 backups, are having a better season than he is.

Why would I, as a GM, give up a 1st round pick for a guy whose save percentage – the only stat that really matters for a goaltender – is worse than every starter in the league, and a third of the backups as well? Especially considering that his experience as a starter is extremely limited? Makes no sense.

Sorry guys, but the numbers don’t lie. Don’t kid yourselves if you think they’ll get a 1st based on last year’s numbers … a .904 save percentage that had him ranked 31st in the league is decent, but doesn’t exactly set the world on fire.

GMs focus on the numbers, and will use this year’s performance as leverage in any trade. Which means a 1st rounder is a pipe dream, unless the rival GM happens to be smoking a particular pipe of his own.

Like I said, I think a deal similar to the one for Huet is the best we can expect. And if we get that, look at the bright side: a 2nd rounder in a deep draft is not all that bad of an acquisition, in and of itself.