Saturday Morning Scoop

by on January 17, 2009 in Uncategorized - 369 Comments

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The latest from a source:

“The Leafs can’t get Toskala to improve his play and that is a huge problem. The only reason Pogge is not starting with the club is that they are trying to improve Toskala’s trade value and he just won’t cooperate. There is a feeling that he knows he is not in Burke’s/Wilson’s plans and most frustratingly his work ethic and focus has been abysmal. The only possibility at this point is to trade him to rid salary because the return wouldn’t be anything really. The fact Raycroft has decent numbers in Colorado helps a little as it implies to some teams that no goalie could play well with the Leafs’ defense core.

Brad May was brought in to assess the dressing room more than anything as Burke trusts his player’s assessments and May is known as a great teammate and a winner. Not surprisingly, the word soft is being used frequently when organizational discussions take place. Burke is also in a bit of quandary, some tradable assets who started off well (i.e. Antropov, Stajan) have tailed off with the Leafs play as of late and there is a belief in the organization that to maximize value the team and the players must not be on a downswing. Burke would like to wait closer to the deadline but he may feel the need to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. There are some deals in place but none that wow him.”

One certainly wonders about the impact the impending changes have on the psyche of those named in rumour circles. Pierre McGuire speculated during the Carolina game that Nik Antropov has been affected by the real possibility of a trade out of town. This team has definitely come down to earth after modestly overachieving during the first third of the season… and maybe some of the keenness in the dressing room to impress Burke and Wilson has sort of worn off in lieu of the major and inevitable changes ahead.

Another very interesting point made about the potential precedent set by Andrew Raycroft’s recovery since being chased out of town, which would seem to play into Gus Katsaros’ point that other management teams know goaltenders aren’t going to look good behind this Leafs’ defense core. May we all pray this is the case.

Your thoughts?

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Garon just got traded for a package of spare parts basically.

    He’s very comparable to Toskala in many ways. Same age, similar career stats, struggling this season.

    Toskala has a lower career GAA which is probably a result of playing behind better teams (i.e. San Jose), but he and Garon share the same career save %.

    Toskala carries a cap hit roughly 4 times as big, but he has another year on his contract (is that a good thing? Would he really get more than $4M on the open market as a UFA this offseason?)

    All in all, I don’t see Toskala getting traded for much more than what Garon got, let alone getting a 1st rounder in return.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    The latest indicator of Vesa Toskala’s trade value:

    To Pittsburgh: Mathieu Garon
    To Edmonton: Ryan Stone, Dany Sabourin, 4th round pick in 2011

    That about sums it up.

    Garon has struggled this season, but has managed to outplay Toskala (although Garth Algar could do that, so maybe it’s not such a big feat). Garon, it should be noted, was one of the top goaltenders in the league last year, again outplaying Toskala.

    Leaf fans, listen up. I know you don’t want to hear this, but you need to. If Mathieu Garon can only bring in a mid-level prospect, a career backup goaltender, and a 4th round pick in a draft two years from now, how in the heck can some of you realistically expect a great return for Toskala? At this point, a 2nd round pick would be the sales job of the century.

    Especially considering that Edmonton and Pittsburgh have just set the trade market for goaltenders in 2009, and that statistically, Garon is and has been a much better goaltender than Toskala … and has done so while playing for a “rebuilding” team.

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  • Alan

    Hey Moron (previous post) How many games has Garon played? He’s been behind a better team than Toskala for the past 2 years, not to mention he’s never been to the playoffs. Edmonton rebuilding? They sure got some talent and skillz, not sure about that.

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  • goldenleafs

    The fact is, there will never be a deal that will “wow” Burke. We don’t have the skill on this team to get a “wow” deal. The only player that would even come close would be Kaberle. So, start pulling the trigger, start rebuilding with whatever you can get.

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  • Juicy

    I don’t think anyone, Leafs fan or otherwise, truly believes Toskala is going to bring back a big return. At this stage I think it is more about getting his salary off the books and giving Pogge a shot.

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  • Blair

    Is it worth trading Toskala at no-value rather than have him split duties with Pogge and hope he can either recover his ability so he can get traded (because why would he want to play back-up to Pogge?) or at least wait until there is market demand for goalies? I wouldn’t trade him for spare parts. The Leafs would need a back up even if they do call up Pogge and he steals the reigns. Besides, the Leafs have enough spare parts.

    By the way, what is up with the Blue Jackets grabbing Doubbie from the Islanders’ waiver wire?? Something is going down over there.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    Alan,

    When comparing goaltenders, GAA is reflective of team play, whereas SV% is reflective of the individual goaltender’s play (allowing 3 goals on 20 shots is much different than allowing 3 goals on 40 shots, for instance). Let’s take a look at last year versus this year.

    Garon

    2008-09: 15 GP, 6-8-0, 0 SO, 3.17 GAA, .895 S%
    - SV% 39th in league, GAA 41st in league
    - Garon has faced, on average, 27.2 shots per game

    2007-08: 47 GP, 26-18-1, 4 SO, 2.66 GAA, .913 S%
    - SV% 17th in league, GAA 25th in league
    - Garon faced, on average, 28.9 shots per game

    Toskala

    2008-09: 39 GP, 15-16-6, 1 SO, 3.34 GAA, .883 SV%
    - SV % 44th in league, GAA 44th in league
    - Toskala has faced, on average, 27.2 shots per game

    2007-08: 66 GP, 33-25-6, 3 SO, 2.74 GAA, .904 SV%
    - SV% 31st in league, GAA 31st in league
    - Toskala faced, on average, 27.3 shots per game

    Edmonton Oilers
    2008-09: 44 GP, 22-19-3, 47 PTS, 122 GF, 132 GA, 9th in West
    2007-08: 82 GP, 41-25-6, 88 PTS, 235 GF, 251 GA, 9th in West

    Toronto Maple Leafs
    2008-09: 45 GP, 17-21-7, 41 PTS, 133 GF, 162 GA, 11th in East
    2007-08: 82 GP, 36-35-11, 83 PTS, 231 GF, 260 GA, 12th in East

    Quick notes:

    - Toskala is facing the same number of shots as he faced last year, but his save percentage is 21 points worse.

    - Garon has experienced a Toskalian decline his his numbers, this season, also. This season, he has faced the exact same number of shots per game as Toskala has, which suggests that defensively the Oilers are about the equivalent of the Leafs this season. Last season, Garon faced more shots per game than Toskala (suggesting Edm’s D was worse than TO’s), yet managed better numbers.

    - By the numbers, the Edmonton Oilers were only 5 points ahead of the Leafs, and are 6 pts ahead of the Leafs this season.

    I rest my case.

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  • glgbill

    Attended the Avs game last night, and have seen Raycroft several times this year. Yes, he’s posted decent numbers of late, but it’s more due to tighter team defensive play than any personal improvement, imo. He’s still prone to the soft goal. And that glove hand? (Heavy sigh…). Anyway, I’m happy for the guy, and hope Gus’ theory holds true, but all teams have scouts and I’m not sure they’ve seen a ‘reborn’ Andrew Raycroft.

    That said, I think the biggest boost for Toskala would come from a backup that can truly challenge him. Fear of losing your job is a great motivator and good goalies can be had for cheap right now — someone with a short contract willing to fight for the opportunity. If we truly want to improve Toskala’s trade value, we need someone besides Cujo to push him harder, someone who’s a viable threat.

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  • http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com Pension Plan Puppets

    Alan – are you really unable to argue your point without resorting to ad hominem attacks?

    Toskala’s value only goes as high as the GM taht can convince himself that his team can fix him decides. Looking at the Garon trade, if anyone is willing to take that kind of gamble the return will be miniscule.

    Stajan’s drop off started with the eye injury and it really worsened Antro’s slide. Hopefully, as you mentioned Alec, they can get some momentum going before the deadline. If Antro’s slide is really tied to the thought of being traded then hopefully Burke tries to gauge how badly he wants to stay in Toronto. There might be a chance to sign him for a very affordable deal.

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  • Scot Loucks

    I don’t think giving Toskala away is the answer. Better to have him split time with Pogge. It’s not like cap space is much of an issue for the Leafs right now.

    Next year being an Olympic year I’m sure that playing for Finland is in the back of Toskala’s mind somewhere.

    Bring up Pogge and start off with using the same approach Boston was using with Thomas and Fernandez. It would seem the only way to motivate Toskala to a better performance.

    As long as Pogge isn’t sitting on the bench as a back up I wouldn’t have any problem with that one….. if Toskala regains his form prior to the deadline ship him out… otherwise keep him till next year/this summer.

    As for Antropov I think if I were Burke I might sit down with Nic and his agent and see what their expectations are for a new contract. Then determine which way to go with Antropov. He may be a trade able asset but will the return be worth giving up a top 6 forward? I thought his game last night with Hagman and Grabovski showed some promise (as a line).

    Stajan will only be as good as his wingers. I still think he is a good third line centre at best…. same category as Moore. To me Mitchell has more offensive upside than Stajan.

    The more I think about the more it looks like Burke will have very few options at the trade deadline. Other than Kaberle and Kubina (who he has stated the won’t ask to waive their no trade) there isn’t a whole lot there that would be on other teams wish lists. It’s more likely he will garner some draft picks by picking up other teams salary problems.

    Cheers

    Cheers

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  • Georgie

    Jackets claim Dubielewicz off waivers from Islanders. There was speculation Toronto was after LeClaire, perhaps that deal could be done sooner than later. I, for one, hope it does.

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  • BoltsSuck

    @Garrett Bauman

    Unfortunately amounts of shots allowed is not the best indicator for the caliber of a defence core. In reality there is none. You cannot assume that since both goalies faced an equal amount of shots, that they also faced an equal amount of scoring chances. Toronto has regular lapses in their defensive play that often sees players walking into the goal area with clear scoring chances.

    Toskala is a small goalie who is retreating into his net too often. The issue with Toronto is rather obvious, their goalie coaches are amongst the worse in the league. Toskala has been beat over top and between his legs more times than I wish to count this year. He never improves in these areas. Someone needs to step in and teach him better positioning, coming out to fight only appropriate goal chances, and to not drop down at the first sign of trouble.

    Has anyone else noticed that when Toskala skates to a post to take away a scoring chance, often times he turns and faces the net when he is attempting to get back into position. He literally leaves an open net with his back facing outwards and takes twice the time to turn. This is an obvious mistake that the goalie coaches are just looking over. Just one of many issues being over looked in his current play.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    Bolt,

    Fair enough. I think there is a lot of merit in save percentage as the best indicator of a goaltender’s ability (the notion of allowing 3 goals on 25 shots versus allowing 3 goals on 35 shots), but perhaps the way I worded it suggested more of an emphasis on the actual # of shots stat than intended.

    Personally, I agree with most of the people above, that Toskala should be retained. Splitting time with an up-and-coming player like Pogge could be the perfect tonic for his game. However, I am only for it if it is a 50-50 or 60-40 split … it will do Pogge no good, developmentally, to simply sit on the bench.

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  • Ryan

    Plain and simple Toskala can’t handle the pressure that was put on him before the season started. He was supposed to be our one bright light this year and has failed to do so. I think they should retain him until next season when we should have a much better defence core, since Burke builds from the defence out we should see a few more reliable defenceman than we have this season….I hope. Let Tosk and Pogge alternate every now and then and really see if Pogge is who we think, and if all goes well then maybe we can deal Tosk next deadline and actually get something of value, and then the rest is up to Pogge. Either way it is going to be a good deadline for Leafs fans.

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  • taterchips
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  • Garrett Bauman

    I think now that Columbus has 3 goaltenders (just picked up Dubliewicz), the time may be right to go after Pascal Leclaire.

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  • Wook

    Disclaimer: I have high hopes for the Burke-Nonis tandem (and perhaps a little too optimistic). Nonis’ influence (i.e. patience) on Burke’s decision making process is probably more significant than that in the past, and hopefully, will be ever increasing.
    .
    Unlike in our recent memories, I do not believe that Burke and his staff will succumb to the pressures from the media to make hasty decisions. He did make it quite clear to all of us that he strongly believes in rebuilding the team from the posts and out. The current situation would dictate for either Toskala being removed to bring in a new number one or Pogge being called up to compete for the job. It does not make any sense to me to trade away Toskala for almost nothing without first having a clear vision for the future. Perhaps it will take the entirety of this season to figure this out. If Toskala is to be moved, I would first expect the Leafs to establish whether Pogge will be the future starter and to have at least a solid 1B option in place (or traded for).
    .
    I know we are all excited about the rebuilding process, but why the rush? I thought we had all agreed that there will not be an overnight fix. I do think that the trade deadline will be when our movable pieces will harbour the greatest value regardless of how they are playing right now.

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  • http://www.downgoesbrown.com Down Goes Brown

    If Toskala can’t build any value this year, then I say hold onto him. Have him split time with Pogge next year — heck, back him up if Pogge wins the job. At $4M he’s overpaid but it doesn’t really matter since the Leafs will be under the cap by a good margin.

    Then, next year, you get another chance at moving him at the deadline. Maybe he turns it around next season, or maybe some team gets desperate.

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  • glucker

    I don’t think the Garon trade is that good an indication of Toskala’s value… Garon was the backup goaltender on a much better team, and his numbers where similar to Toskala’s starting numbers on a much worse team… I think if we deal Toskala, we’ll see a Huet-like return

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  • http://msn wayne scarlett

    This trade was floated on 960 the Fan,in Calgary this morning.

    Atropov and Kubina to the Rangers for Mark Staal and a 1st in either 2009 or 2010.

    Don’t know who the guy was who said it,but I’m not sure if the Rangers would have the Cap space,let alone whether or not Staal would be someone they would move.As for Toskala,if the “fans” and “media” are so intent on running him out of town and ruining Pogge,by putting him in too early,how about this.Trade Vesa to Minnesota for Backstrom.No picks involved,and then when he walks July 1st,the Leafs have an extra $3.3 million to spend.

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  • http://msn wayne scarlett

    All of you saying 4 million in regards to Toskala,are overstating his actual salary.He signed a 3 year deal worth $ 10 million.This is the first year of that deal,at 3.3 and he gets the same next season.His salary the following year is 3.4. Where anyone gets 4 million plus is beyond me,unless they are quoting the figure(which is wrong) from the XBox 360 version of NHL 09.

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  • http://msn wayne scarlett

    Garrett you sure you want Le claire? My friends in Columbus could very well be describing Toskala when they tell me that LeClaire is a moody un motivated player.He is also injury prone and the big problem is that he milks it.

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  • goleafsgo1328

    “All of you saying 4 million in regards to Toskala,are overstating his actual salary.He signed a 3 year deal worth $ 10 million.This is the first year of that deal,at 3.3 and he gets the same next season.His salary the following year is 3.4. Where anyone gets 4 million plus is beyond me,unless they are quoting the figure(which is wrong) from the XBox 360 version of NHL 09.”

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=TOR has all the cap figures for the Leafs, and has Toskala’s at 4 million…

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  • leaf believe

    WAIT and good thing will come. Whats the hurry.

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