A Look Ahead To The Entry Draft

by on March 14, 2009 in Uncategorized - 70 Comments

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As the 2008-09 season moves into the stretch drive, it is perhaps time for fans of teams most likely not making the playoffs to take a closer peek at the top prospects entering the draft.

Based on the Maple Leafs‘ current spot in the standings with 13 games to go, it is safe to assume that this team will not finish last overall, and perhaps not even in the bottom five.   A finish anywhere from 23rd to 26th overall (picking 5th to 8th) appears most likely at this point.

With that in mind, here is a modified version of the International Scouting Services (ISS) mid-season rankings which were released in February.  Modified, in that the list is #3 – 12, as those are most likely the players that the Leafs will be looking at come the first round of the Entry Draft.

MAGNUS SVENSSON-PAAJARVI (LW)
Fast, fast, fast.  His jets were on full display at the WJC, where he turned the heads of scouts and fans alike with both his speed and his shot.  He has some size (6’1 200), but doesn’t play a physical game.  His defensive game is also lacking, but his skating abilities should help compensate for that.  He compares well to Markus Naslund.

MATT DUCHENE (C/W)
Perhaps the most complete player in the draft, Duchene is as adept at scoring goals as he is setting them up, and equally comfortable on the wing as he is at his natural centre position. He is also an excellent forechecker.   Generally reliable without the puck, Duchene is rarely caught out of position or left chasing the opposition.  Zach Parise comparisons would be fair.

BRAYDEN SCHENN (C)
Luke’s younger brother is a gifted two-way centre who balances good offensive instincts with sound defensive play.  The big pivot is just as comfortable in a shutdown role as he is on a scoring line.  His gritty play and willingness to do all the little things it takes to win have made him a team leader wherever he has played.   A good comparison might be Mike Richards.

JARED COWEN (D)
Injuries may affect how high he is drafted, but Cowen remains arguably the top defender in this draft, following Hedman.   Cowen is a defense-first defenseman, and a rock in his own end.  The big (6-5 218) blueliner skates well for his size and is positionally sound.  He plays with a chip on his shoulder, forcing opposition forwards to keep their heads on a swivel.   Compares favorably to Karl Alzner.

EVANDER KANE (C/W)
An aggressive, in-your-face player, Kane is equally effective at all three forward positions.  A smaller player (5-11 160), Kane plays the role of the pest to perfection, combining a physical style of play with deft playmaking ability.   Very good defensively, Kane is a mainstay on the PK unit.   Without a doubt, he is the Esa Tikkanen of this draft.

NAZEM KADRI (C/W)
Less heralded than many of the other top-ranked players in the draft, Kadri will soon be known for more than just being the guy who was designated as the ‘player to be dealt later’ in a trade for Steve Mason (he was named in the trade but not actually moved until the offseason).  Kadri is a smooth-skating playmaker with uncanny vision in the offensive zone.   Athough his offensive insticts are sound, his defensive game and physical play leave a fair bit to be desired.  Compares well to Paul Stastny.

DREW SHORE (C)
If you just said “who?” you are not alone.  Perhaps the sleeper pick of the 2009 draft, Shore has quietly risen up the scouting rankings.   A project player who is a few years away (he will be joining the NCAA ranks next season), Shore has excellent on-ice vision and playmaking ability.   He is not the most aggressive player, however, and needs to work on shooting the puck more often, and battling harder for the puck.   Has drawn comparisons to Scott Gomez.

JACOB JOSEFSON (C)
A solid two-way pivot, Josefson combines high-level offensive skills with dependable defensive play.  Josefson’s willingness to battle for the tough areas of the ice, relentless effort at both ends of the rink, and soft hands around the net have drawn favorable comparisons to Henrik Zetterberg.

JORDAN SCHROEDER (RW/LW)
A smaller player (5-8 165) with excellent offensive instincts, Schroeder is perhaps the most offensively-gifted player to come from US hockey in years.  Lightning-quick on the ice, Schroeder possesses an accurate shot, terrific playmaking vision, and simply knows how to get open in the offensive zone.   Concerns over whether or not he can withstand the physical rigors of the NHL have led to his recent slide in the ISS rankings.   Is similar in many respects to Patrick Kane.

RYAN ELLIS (D)
Another smaller player, size concerns are maginfied with Ellis due to his being a defenseman.  However, what he lacks in physical play he makes up for with sound positioning.    That said, Ellis will always be known first and foremost for his offensive skill set.   A great skater, Ellis possesses an accurate point shot and is a precision passer whose tremendous offensive instincts make him a deadly weapon on the powerplay.    Compares well to Brian Rafalski.

View the ISS top 30 player rankings at TSN

So, who would you like to see the Maple Leafs draft in the first round?   Kane, Schenn, or Josefson would be the best fits for Wilson’s aggressive-forecheck style of play, in my opinion.    What do you think?

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  • Gerard

    @Wook:
    Are you suggesting with a straight face that Kubina is better than any of those guys???
    Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

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  • daniel marois

    Kubina is going to be easier to move next season when another team has sustained major injuries on D and the fact you will only be paying a portion of his $5 million for the year plus will not be on your books for the 2010-2011 season which is when the cap will really go down. The more attractive d-man for teams will be Kaberle at the draft. His value will only decrease once he has one more year left on his contract or less. Burke knows the disappointment people had at the trade deadline and he did say that he will be active in the offseason. Burke will sign free agents (NCAA) and make a trade or two.

    As for Kane, we know he would fit the Burke mold but not sure how badly Burke wants to move up to draft him.

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  • Wook

    @Garett: Yes, as you had gathered, I was speaking solely from a statistical perspective, and putting our own biases aside one has to consider how he ranks amongst the league leaders. From a trade-return point of view, Burke has a much more reasonable chance to receive a 1st round pick back for Kubina than Antropov. Again, using Schneider’s return as a gauge (albeit slightly skewed from the deadline-perspective), Burke must demand at least a 1st round pick during the window in the summer or he must hold onto him until the deadline.

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  • B.B

    Kaberle and Hayes to LA for 1draft 09, Hickey and Moller

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  • brokensilence

    i think kane is the best choice for the leafs, but i still really want b. schenn… burke would earn my undying love and devotion if he somehow manages to finagle another top-10 draft out of another team’s hands…

    oh, and i would think kubina is worth far more than antropov… especially since he’s only got 1 year left on his contract, thus the money is a non-factor for the dreaded ’10/11 season. not to mention, $5 mil isn’t nearly as much now as it seemed to be before, plus it’s still cheaper than the 5.75 that mccabe is earning — and caber has TWO years left on his contract.

    also, for the same reasons, it’s not too much of a stretch that kaberle could still fetch close to the asking price… his contract and his proven value as a PP quarterback make him valuable to any team, whether it be a team looking to spend close to the cap limit, or one looking to be competitive without spending too much. plus by setting the price high, burke is giving himself lots of room to bargain — he won’t get the pick/prospect/player deal that would “get the deal done,” but getting a 1st and either a good prospect or a good young roster player shouldn’t be out of the question.

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  • crayn

    Schenn is better than Kane, easily.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    Kubina’s value must be measured in terms of what else is out there. Yes, the argument that he has more value than Antropov is valid in the sense that experienced defenders are harder to find than 25 goal scorers.
    .
    However, a player’s true value is ultimately determined by what other teams are willing to give up. The argument that Antropov was worth a first was widely supported by most hockey writers … however, on deadline day, the market for his services topped out at a 2nd round pick. Burke held onto him until the end trying to get the 1st round pick, but nobody was interested in paying that price.
    .
    What I am suggesting is the same thing that happened at the deadline will happen at the draft. Just because fans and writers and talking heads suggest that a player is worth a first-round pick doesn’t make it so. I fully agree that Kubina should net the Leafs a first-rounder, but I highly doubt that it will actually happen.
    .
    I believe firmly that the trade market has shifted, and 1st-round picks are at a higher premium now than ever before. What was once first-round value may now be second-round, at best. No matter how much Burke pries and pulls at the other GMs, at the end of the day he will only receive what the other GMs are willing to give up. Just because Burke wants a 1st round pick does not mean that he will be able to get one. Negotiations are always a two-way street … it’s as simple as that.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    @Crayn:
    They’re both good players, and would each fit very well into the type of team that Burke is trying to build. Most Leaf fans would be happy with either of those two, and hopefully one of them will be available when the Leafs are on the board.

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  • http://www.leafspace.com BlueBomber

    Are you guys actually debating that Kane is more of a Burke-type player the B. Schenn ?!?!?!?

    Seriously ?!?!?!?!

    Let’s examine the fights, the defensive acumen, the size, the overall game play, attitude.

    I know most of you are on Kane’s side because of his offensive output, but let’s be honest.

    B. Schenn is more of a Burke-type player, period.

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  • brokensilence

    bluebomber: they’re both burke players, but what the leafs need right now is a skilled offensive player, preferably a sniper. schenn can certainly score, but i’d take kane’s 47-48-95 in 60 games over schenn’s 31-54-85 in 69 games any day.

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  • Face

    @ Garrett,

    Thanks for the update on Cowen. Been through knee surgery myself and know that it’s not a fun injury to recover from. You think he’ll fall to the 10-15 category? Probably right. When he recovers though, he’ll be quite a steal, like you said. Great article. Keep them comming.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    Yeah, I think an estimation of 10-15 is realistic at this point in time. However, if teams feel confident enough in his recovery by the draft, you could yet see someone take a risk on him in the top ten. However, I would not be surprised to see fast-rising (and healthy) defense prospect Oliver Ekman-Larsson come off the board before Cowen.

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  • http://www.tmlfans.ca Schenn

    I’m hoping for Schenn, but if Duchene is still available when we pick, I’d have to take him over Brayden!

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  • Roacho

    Although I’ve read a lot but haven’t seen many of these players play. I’d have to say that I would prefer 1)Duchene 2)Schenn 3)Cowen. It’s a little less exciting drafting a dman, but Cowen could really round out the defence on this team. Schenn is said to be strong and a good checker, but at only 6′, I worry that that element of his game will be lost at the NHL level. Duchene is lighting it up with Brampton of the OHL, I get he impression that this guy is being overlooked due to the fact that Hedman and Tavares are taking the spotlight.

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  • LT73

    Brayden Schenn:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGOgf1Mc3HA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDTC8uWc8RI

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  • Wags

    Just a thought, Burke signs Bouwmeester to a Brian Cambell like contract, (which no-one else can do), then at the Draft, Trades Kaberle, Blake, and 2nd pick to Isles for #1 overall pick, trades Kubina to the Lightning for their 1st pick, keeps his own pick #7… Results… Tavares (Isles)…Cowen(lightning)….Schenn(Leafs)….Its ok to dream isn’t it, but I really believe that there is more to come from the Tampa trade (buyout) at the deadline, (maybe a swap of 1st rounders???) its gonna be interesting… Trust in Burke ….

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  • CarltontheBear

    lol Wags it’s ok to dream…but…lol

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  • Roacho

    Wow that quite the pipe dream Wags. Lol. I think those players could definitely get the Leafs to move up in the draft. I sincerely hope it’s feasible, to get a player of significance in this draft. Cowen’s injury is bothersome, I would have Kane or Duchene in the crosshairs.

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  • Blue Max

    Our greatest need is for a #1 centre. If BB gets to move up in the draft I hope it’s for him, and him only. If you’re hoping to sign guys like Nash, and Cammaleri, you need to have some other 1st line material to play with them for years to come. Shenn, and Kane are 3rd-2nd at the best.
    Otherwise a big shutdown dman like Cowen will complete our blueline. You take the best players available, and one WJC does not a player make (Pogge anyone?).

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  • Blue Max

    Sorry in that first line I was talking about Duchene. BB should trade up for him.

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