A Look Ahead To The Entry Draft

by on March 14, 2009 in Uncategorized - 70 Comments

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As the 2008-09 season moves into the stretch drive, it is perhaps time for fans of teams most likely not making the playoffs to take a closer peek at the top prospects entering the draft.

Based on the Maple Leafs‘ current spot in the standings with 13 games to go, it is safe to assume that this team will not finish last overall, and perhaps not even in the bottom five.   A finish anywhere from 23rd to 26th overall (picking 5th to 8th) appears most likely at this point.

With that in mind, here is a modified version of the International Scouting Services (ISS) mid-season rankings which were released in February.  Modified, in that the list is #3 – 12, as those are most likely the players that the Leafs will be looking at come the first round of the Entry Draft.

MAGNUS SVENSSON-PAAJARVI (LW)
Fast, fast, fast.  His jets were on full display at the WJC, where he turned the heads of scouts and fans alike with both his speed and his shot.  He has some size (6’1 200), but doesn’t play a physical game.  His defensive game is also lacking, but his skating abilities should help compensate for that.  He compares well to Markus Naslund.

MATT DUCHENE (C/W)
Perhaps the most complete player in the draft, Duchene is as adept at scoring goals as he is setting them up, and equally comfortable on the wing as he is at his natural centre position. He is also an excellent forechecker.   Generally reliable without the puck, Duchene is rarely caught out of position or left chasing the opposition.  Zach Parise comparisons would be fair.

BRAYDEN SCHENN (C)
Luke’s younger brother is a gifted two-way centre who balances good offensive instincts with sound defensive play.  The big pivot is just as comfortable in a shutdown role as he is on a scoring line.  His gritty play and willingness to do all the little things it takes to win have made him a team leader wherever he has played.   A good comparison might be Mike Richards.

JARED COWEN (D)
Injuries may affect how high he is drafted, but Cowen remains arguably the top defender in this draft, following Hedman.   Cowen is a defense-first defenseman, and a rock in his own end.  The big (6-5 218) blueliner skates well for his size and is positionally sound.  He plays with a chip on his shoulder, forcing opposition forwards to keep their heads on a swivel.   Compares favorably to Karl Alzner.

EVANDER KANE (C/W)
An aggressive, in-your-face player, Kane is equally effective at all three forward positions.  A smaller player (5-11 160), Kane plays the role of the pest to perfection, combining a physical style of play with deft playmaking ability.   Very good defensively, Kane is a mainstay on the PK unit.   Without a doubt, he is the Esa Tikkanen of this draft.

NAZEM KADRI (C/W)
Less heralded than many of the other top-ranked players in the draft, Kadri will soon be known for more than just being the guy who was designated as the ‘player to be dealt later’ in a trade for Steve Mason (he was named in the trade but not actually moved until the offseason).  Kadri is a smooth-skating playmaker with uncanny vision in the offensive zone.   Athough his offensive insticts are sound, his defensive game and physical play leave a fair bit to be desired.  Compares well to Paul Stastny.

DREW SHORE (C)
If you just said “who?” you are not alone.  Perhaps the sleeper pick of the 2009 draft, Shore has quietly risen up the scouting rankings.   A project player who is a few years away (he will be joining the NCAA ranks next season), Shore has excellent on-ice vision and playmaking ability.   He is not the most aggressive player, however, and needs to work on shooting the puck more often, and battling harder for the puck.   Has drawn comparisons to Scott Gomez.

JACOB JOSEFSON (C)
A solid two-way pivot, Josefson combines high-level offensive skills with dependable defensive play.  Josefson’s willingness to battle for the tough areas of the ice, relentless effort at both ends of the rink, and soft hands around the net have drawn favorable comparisons to Henrik Zetterberg.

JORDAN SCHROEDER (RW/LW)
A smaller player (5-8 165) with excellent offensive instincts, Schroeder is perhaps the most offensively-gifted player to come from US hockey in years.  Lightning-quick on the ice, Schroeder possesses an accurate shot, terrific playmaking vision, and simply knows how to get open in the offensive zone.   Concerns over whether or not he can withstand the physical rigors of the NHL have led to his recent slide in the ISS rankings.   Is similar in many respects to Patrick Kane.

RYAN ELLIS (D)
Another smaller player, size concerns are maginfied with Ellis due to his being a defenseman.  However, what he lacks in physical play he makes up for with sound positioning.    That said, Ellis will always be known first and foremost for his offensive skill set.   A great skater, Ellis possesses an accurate point shot and is a precision passer whose tremendous offensive instincts make him a deadly weapon on the powerplay.    Compares well to Brian Rafalski.

View the ISS top 30 player rankings at TSN

So, who would you like to see the Maple Leafs draft in the first round?   Kane, Schenn, or Josefson would be the best fits for Wilson’s aggressive-forecheck style of play, in my opinion.    What do you think?

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  • http://www.leafspace.com BlueBomber

    Great article !!!!

    Let’s be honest guys, Kane is going to move past Svensson-Paajarvi (sp?) once the WHL begins it’s playoffs. I think with the impact of the WJC the NHL will be looking at the hometown boys a little harder (with the exception of Hedman, of course).

    Now as for who I think we should draft, simple. BRAYDEN SCHENN.

    This family has been on Burkes radar for some time now, and if you don’t think all the moves that Fletcher and Wilson made before Burke’s arrival weren’t Burke’s idea, then you have been bamboozled !!!

    I think this has been one huge elaborate plan from the get. Brayden WILL be drafted and will play one more year of junior before becoming our second line center behind our first line of Sedin-Sedin-Nash.

    MARK MY WORDS !!!!

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  • wheatkings09

    He better play one more year of junior if the wheaties are going to win the Memorial Cup next year :)

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  • taterchips

    I would LOVE for the Leafs to finish bottom 6 for at least a chance of 1 of the first 4 on your list. Any of those players would be a great addition. But I’m frightened of a winning streak…very, very frightened.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Depends on who you talk to obviously cause everyone’s got differing opinions, but according to the scouts I’ve talked to here are a couple contrasting points:

    #1 – Duchene is not the most complete player in the draft and his defensive game needs a lot of work, and this was accentuated upon at the Ivan Hlinka tournament.

    #2 – Kane is not a small player, as he went through a growth spurt over the summer to reach roughly 6’1 180 lbs. He’s not really a playmaker, and is a pure sniper by every definition of the word.

    #3 – A Minnesota product, Schroeder is probably the player who best compares to New Jersey’s Zach Parise. Undersized, fast, offensive instincts, combined with a strong two-way game and excellent leadership ability.

    Great post Garrett! Never too early to talk the draft!

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    For those who have yet to see Kane in the WHL:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X6bB2mwq1c

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  • betterforsome

    @ Alex Tran would have been better with the original Zeppelin… that’s gonna affect his status.

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  • barrybell

    I find it noxious that Tampa is again in the mix for a 1st overall.
    That represents all that is wrong with the NHL in a nutshell.

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  • Greg Johnson

    Thanks for the link Alex!

    Even though he’s only 6-1, he just seems like a Brian Burke type of player. Is he full grown yet, because he could be a solid power forward in the NHL if he bulked up.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    @ Greg, Nope he’s only 17 years of age right now. He put on about 20+ lbs this past summer, and we’ve seen how much it’s helped his game as he’s completely dominated the league this year.

    Now at 6’1 180, he says he hopes to continue to get stronger in order to better play his crash-the-net style of game.

    The one scout I talked to said that one factor that may push Kane ahead of the rest of the forwards not named Tavares is the fact that he’s not yet as physically mature as guys like Schenn, and so projects to have so much more to offer.

    Sky-high potential.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    Oh and Greg, I should add that most project him to play a hybrid “athletic power forward” kind of game at the NHL level. The kind of power forward that has explosive speed and a sniper’s mentality ala Jarome Iginla.

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  • taterchips

    At 17 years old he might still add a few inches as well.

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  • Greg Johnson

    Well from what I’ve heard of him, he would be a great selection if he’s available when the Leafs walk up to make their pick. I’m also intrigued by Brayden Schenn because I think he’d be motivated to play with older brother Luke and Brayden seems ready for the NHL. I’ve also heard he’s comparable to Mike Richards, who is a two-dimensional force. BTW, looking forward to contributing to MLHS alongside yourself and the other bloggers!

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  • leafs4life

    I think from reading this post and everybodys comments I would say its safe to say that Kane is the most likely best candidate to be selected by Burke and the boys if he were available. My heart says get Schenn because Luke is an exceptional player and will only get better but I can see that Kane will probably be the right player to take. Maybe Burke can pull off some magic and get both schenn and kane. that would be just crazy. looking forward to the draft and and free agency as well as what our team will look like come 2009-10 season. I predict 2010 will be the first year in many we make the playoffs and will make some noise. within 5 years, we will be legitimate stanley cup contenders.

    great site guys. awesome posts. and welcome to the site greg. looking forward to what you have to offer.

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  • CarltontheBear

    Duchene, Kane, Schenn, MSP, Cowen, Schroeder, Kadri, Ellis, Josefsen, Shore is the order I ‘d put them in.

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  • Face

    From what I’ve read and seen so far, I think it would be great if the Leafs could sign one of Schenn, Kane or Cowen. Burke has said that he likes to build fromt he net out, and I’m not convinced that he wouldn’t be interested in Cowen. That being said, Kane looks like he might have all the tools, and Schenn would have size, grit, and the family connection. Outside of those, Kadri looks like an intriguing prospect, right up Burke’s alley. A quick question on Cowen. Is it his knee’s that he injuried, and how is he coming along in his rehab? Thanks guys.

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  • Roger Boucher

    Garrett or Alex,

    Do you think the Leafs would consider trading Kabs or Kub to get another pick, one that we could use to move up and get another player from this list? Reason, is that the Leafs need another Dman (like Ellis) in the ranks that’s not afraid to shot or get into the lane, unlike Kabs, and Kubs won’t be around after next season and Stralman needs a partner.

    And I would prefere Kane over Schenn…….watched Giant games on Sportsnet Pacific and he was always in the slot or in front of the net ready to score and he’s got some skating that would complement Tlusty or Mitchell on a line.

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  • Garrett Bauman
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  • Garrett Bauman

    @Roger:
    That is a very good question. I don’t see Burke backing down from the price tag he has placed on Kaberle, so unless a team is willing to offer up the farm I imagine Kaberle will stay right where he is. That is not my personal preference, but at the end of the day I just don’t see a team offering up the motherlode that Burke wants for #15.
    .
    As for Kubina, he could be moved at the draft, especially if it appears Kaberle will remain a Leaf. However, expectations must be tempered in terms of a possible trade return for Kubina. If the Trade Deadline taught us anything, it was that with an expected cap decrease on the horizon (assumed to be 2010-11), draft picks and prospects are at a premium. Which means a 1st rounder straight up for Kubina simply isn’t going to happen.
    .
    If Kubina is dealt, I imagine it will be for one of two returns:
    (a) swap 1st rounders and pick up an additional 3rd round pick
    (b) straight up for a 2nd round pick
    .
    Using the Trade Deadline as a point of reference, I don’t see how fans can realistically expect any more than that from Burke. Perhaps he can pull off a miracle dealing Kubina – I will never discredit that possibility – but I wouldn’t bank on it at this point in time.
    .
    Also, if one of Kubina or Kaberle is dealt, expect to see the other remain with the team. The cap floor will still need to be met, after all.

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  • Garrett Bauman

    @Face:
    Cowen was injured in February, and his rehab is expected to take up to five months (he should begin skating again in July if all goes well, so barring any setbacks training camp is a definite possibility).
    .
    However, the extent to which he can return to form is the question that nobody can yet answer. The injury was described as a “sprained MCL and high-grade ACL injury” … which basically means he tore the ACL.
    .
    Recoveries from knee injuries are never easy to estimate. It could take him all of next season to get his game back to where it was prior to the injury, or he could return to form within a few months of skating. There is really no way to estimate a timetable for that at this point … everybody’s body recovers at a different rate, so prognosticating the impact this injury will have on his career is a guessing game at best. He could easily be in the NHL next season … or just as easily not, depending on how the post-skating portion of the recovery goes.
    .
    Most likely, he will continue to slide down the draft boards of many teams given that he suffered a very serious knee injury, but I would be very surprised if he slid right out of the first round. The good news is that nobody has suggested the injury is career-threatening at this point. The bad news is, nobody knows when he regain his top-notch level of play on the ice. I’d say he is still worth the risk in the first round … and I imagine other teams will feel the same way.
    .
    Bottom line: in my opinion, some team is going to get a steal in the 10 – 15 spot.
    .
    More on the Cowen injury here

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  • Darkjester

    I could see kubina and a 2nd being traded for a first rounder that might be in th 10-15 range maybe to grab someone like Kassian or glennie (if he’s still on the board). Especially if they draft Schenn, Glennie would be a great person to draft as those two have great chemistry already. and maybe with there remaining 2nd grab a Goalie. I’m aware this doesn’t help our god awful D situation. Which might have to be the focus of next years draft.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    @ Roger, I’m really hoping that Kaberle is the Ace Burke has up his sleeve in order to land another bonafide blue-chip prospect. Toronto has very little depth on the blueline in the farm system and a defender like Ryan Ellis, Simon Despres or John Moore would do wonders.

    And in regards to Kane, you’re preaching to the choir my friend. On my draft board, Kane’s #3 behind Tavares and Hedman.

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  • daniel marois

    I think Burke will be talking with those teams that missed the playoffs about Kaberle or Kubina once the regular season ends till the day of the draft. That’s three months from April till June to formulate a deal to Burke’s likning. What team is willing to give up what Burke is demanding I don’t know. But teams who missed the playoffs would be interested in getting a player like Kaberle to help get into the playoffs next season.

    Getting back to the draft debate, I think Kane is the one forward every team is going to want after Tavares is gone.

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  • Wook

    @Garett:
    “If Kubina is dealt, I imagine it will be for one of two returns:
    (a) swap 1st rounders and pick up an additional 3rd round pick
    (b) straight up for a 2nd round pick”
    .
    I realize that the market was pretty tough at the deadline but what are you basing these returns on? With the exception of the +/- stat, Kubina is pretty much at par with Weber, Souray, Chara, Kronwall, Pronger, Phaneuf, and Blake and ahead of Bieksa, Suter, Keith, Bouwmeester, and Hainsey, and Kubina gets less time than most of these guys per game. His contract is also cheaper than most of these guys, plus he is known to be a great team mate, a leader, etc. Surely one can expect more than a Schneider’s return?

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  • Garrett Bauman

    Statistically, you can make that argument, sure.
    .
    But if I asked you who you would rather have on your team, Kubina or Weber, what would you say? That’s where I am coming from.
    .
    I wholeheartedly disagree that Kubina is a better defender, or more highly-skilled, than most of those you mentioned (I’ll give you Hainsey, Bieksa and perhaps Souray).
    .
    The simple fact of the matter is, Kubina is not mentioned around the league in the same breath as most of those players on your list. So when I suggest a deal like that above, I am basing my estimation on reputation moreso than a basic comparison of numbers. And Kubina is certainly not viewed as belonging to the same category of defenders that you mentioned. All you have to do is compare scouting reports to see that.

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  • Roger Boucher

    @ Garrett.

    I was a little dissapointed at the deadline, like most, so i’ll assume that Burke will either ride out their contracts, use the next deadline or resign them. I’m afraid that the ride out or resigning might be the outcome.

    @ Alex

    Thks, Kane will hopefully be on Burke’s list, he’s just the Burke type of player…more then some………and the Ellis thing…..wow he won me over at the WJC and even though he’s small, he reminds me of a St.Louis type of defense.

    Oh, off topic a little, but how far do you think Stalberg is from the NHL, he’s doing great right now in the NCAA, and is Chad Rau…..but i was reading an article http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/team/app/?servic…rticleid=413712 , just wanted your guys thoughts.

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