Is Stempniak A Part Of The Future?

Maybe it’s too early to determine, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt… for now (dun, dun, duunnn).

Lee Stempniak, who was acquired via trade from the St.Louis Blues for Alexander Steen and Carlo Colaiacovo, has a total of 13 goals and 39 points in 65 games this season – scoring 10 goals and 26 points in 51 of those games with the Leafs.

Many critics have questioned if Stempniak can sustain a future role as a top-six forward for the Leafs. He has, unfortunately, garnered a reputation of inconsistency. So if he wants to stay on Brian Burke’s club for the foreseeable future, he better start pulling his pants up.

Looking at Stempniak’s production in the NHL thus far, it’s evident that consistency is not his strong suit.

2005-06 – 57GP, 14 G, 27 PTS

2006-07 – 82 GP, 27 G, 52 PTS

2007-08 – 80GP, 13 G, 38 PTS

2008-09 – 65 GP, 13 G, 39 PTS (on pace: 15 G, 45 PTS)

Stempniak, who was a star with the NCAA’s Dartmouth College (produced 63 G, 151 PTS in 135 GP), seems to be a player who is establishing himself in the 40-50 point range. While there’s nothing wrong with those numbers, he should (and will) be producing at a higher level.

Stempniak, who is currently riding a hot streak with 10 points in his last 13 games, is best utilized in the offensive zone. He has solid hockey sense and vision, and owns speed that allows him to get around defenders with more ease. Stempniak is not afraid to throw his body around either, – owns a menacing 5’11, 200 pound frame – as he is ranked 4th on the team, and 1st among Leafs forwards, with 99 hits. Considering his small stature, his physical play will help him maintain a lengthy career.

An area of Stempniak’s game that requires polishing is his defensive play (-22 rating in his NHL career). Many times he can be found out of position in his own end. Another area that needs improvement, as I stated above, is his consistency. Many nights I’ve wondered if he was either scratched without my understanding, or if he had stolen Frodo Baggins’ cloak.

When discussing Stempniak’s future with the Leafs, his potential must be the focal point. I believe he has the offensive tools to become a 20-25 goal, 60-65 point player in this league.

Stempniak earns a fair $1.882 million dollar cap-hit. He becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent after next season, and could be re-signed at a reasonable price.

Considering the Leafs’ current situation, they have nothing to lose in giving the 26 year-old a try-out for a top-six position. If he doesn’t pan out, no harm done. If he turns out to be a reliable, 50-60 point player on the second line, then clearly it was a risk – a minimal one, at that – worth taking.

But I’m interested in reading what you, good-looking and super successful, MLHS followers think. Is Stempniak – is it just me, or does Stempniak resemble a chipmunk? It’s quite possible I’m going insane, but I’m just wondering – a part of the future? Will he be asking for spare change at the corner of Yonge in the summer of 2010? Would you rather have Steen and Colaiacovo back? What’s your say?

You stay classy, MLHS.

ronguillet@mapleleafshotstove.com

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  • king

    I’d give him one more year before making any serious judgments to be honest. He hasn’t really played a full season with the Leafs and now that he is getting accustomed to Wilson’s system he might start picking it up. If he turns up flat next year then we might have to part with him. In regards to wanting Steen and Cola back over Stemp, I wouldn’t mind Cola back but Steen can stay in St.Louis lol.

  • hockey_guru

    Let him play next season and hope he gets hot… then try to move him. He hasn’t been anything special.

  • Roacho

    I don’t get the feeling that he is the kind of guy to thrive in this market. I’d give him another shot next year, if he can’t get it together, I’d try to trade him as a rental at the deadline for whatever I could get.

  • Blair

    It’s not like Steen was consistent either and neither was Cola consistently healthy. I think Carlos was more frustrating because you KNEW if he stayed healthy he was a top defenceman… but every game you’d see him limp off the ice. I’m pleased with Stempniak but I’m not sure he has a future with the Leafs. I say Burke flips him as part of a package this summer.

  • brokensilence

    stempniak doesn’t really seem to fit with the leafs. his speed is nice, and he is one of the few right-handed forwards (if i remember correctly…), but i just don’t really see him as part of the leafs’ future…

    i would rather have cola back. even an injured cola is better than a healthy stempniak…

  • Rober

    I agree that he should be kept, and if he stays hot trade him at the draft for a another 2nd rnd and use that to move up or down (depending where we’re at in the 2nd rnd) and get Koskinen a goalie from Finland…..The Finns are the best goalies. Or wait till next yrs deadline.

  • the Surreal McCoy

    well, i’m not a fan of Stempniak. not in the least. though, as you said Ron, he does have speed, and he’s not afraid to throw his weight around, even though he’s not delivering any crushing bodychecks, at least he finishes them, and he does have potential, so… unless he goes in a package this summer, the buds almost HAVE to keep him and hope for more next year, but that’s more based on what we gave up to acquire him (2 former first rounders) than on what he’s shown he’ll bring on a consistent basis. in a perfect world, he’ll play well enough to be worth a 2nd at the trade deadline, but i’m not going to hold my breath. besides, it’s pretty unlikely that whomever we draft this year, or any of our prospects, Tlusty aside, are even close to being ready to make the jump to the show and play 2nd line minutes. best to let the Stempmunk play out the season, and hope for the best from within the organization for the following year.

  • sash

    I personally would of rather seen the Leafs hold on to steen and coliacovo and possibly deal them at the trade deadline. If whole goal wasnt to win now, it makes no sense trading two younger guys for one guy a couple years older. I beleive the Blues won this trade, coliacovo has gathered quite a few points, and the blues are on cusp of making the playoffs.

  • dan

    “Many critics have questioned if Stempniak can sustain a future role as a top-six forward for the Leafs. ”
    .
    He can’t even sustain a top-six with the club now, and we’re filled with rookies and AHL’ers. Unless someone comes looking for him, or the right package comes along… I think we use him next year and trade him at the deadline (for a 2nd depending on his performance)

  • LeafsFan41

    When this trade went down, I was initially giddy. I think Stempniak is really under-rated as a player. He has definitely grown a little more comfortable after logging 20 games as a Leaf, and I think he’s beginning to understand what is expected from him and how he can play within his skill set in the Wilson system.

    I’m not ready to throw in the towel on this guy yet. I think he has a chance to be a part of the future, but I’m not sure in a top 6 role. I see him as a 3rd line guy that can step into the top 6 when there is an injury or a message needs to be sent to another player. The guy has a bullet for a shot, and it doesn’t hurt to have his speed in the lineup. I think his d-zone coverage will get better, and I love that he finishes his checks…Grabo & Kulemin could and should learn from his example in that regard.

  • sash

    I agree with Dan, if hes not a top six on the current leaf roster, how can he be at all expected to be a top six on the leafs in the years to come (this is assuming Burke creates a playoff contender)

  • Ron Guillet

    With one season left, I’m interested in seeing what Stempniak’s got to offer. He’s got alot of untapped potential, so he certainly can be a top-six in the future…it all depends on next season….huge season for him!

  • Roacho

    Yeah Ron you’re right I mean unless your name is Antropov, most players exceed expectations in their contract year (as did Blake in his last season with the Isles). I think Stemp could have a big year next year and if that materializes, Burke will have to decide if he extends him or trades him for a decent return at the trade deadline.

  • B Leaf

    no.

  • Wasted Years

    I think he is a border line 2nd liner probably better suited to the third line. Having said that, BB has an idea of what he wants out of his third liners. He seems to want that to be a shut down line that can go against the other teams big guns on a nightly basis (see Niedermeyer/Moen/Pahlson during Anaheims cup run) so if one of his struggles is his D zone coverage I don’t see him being a Leaf for long.

    Good to see Carlo panning out in St.Louis. The kid always had it, we always knew it, and it’s unfortunate he had to leave to reach the potential. I think he is a 40 point D-man who can log 20-22 minutes a night. Didn’t seem as though he was going to fit in with Wilson though. However, initially it didn’t look good for White either.

    Steen was soft and I was glad to see him go. He and Stajan have frustrated the hell out of me for long enough and now all I can hope is Stajan follows him out the door this summer.

  • puckbuddy

    I like Stempniak. I think he’s still adjusting both to a new system and new city. Also you have to remember that he has only 3 seasons experience prior to this one so he is still learning. He has some skills sets that are unmatched on the team. I think his best trait is his puck pursuit and recovery. When he has the puck he can hold on to it or release it quick with a very good shot. I dont know, I’ve watched him play and there is just something there, whether or not Wilson can get it out of him, is the big question.

  • Leafswest

    Another NCAA Hockey East guy. Didn’t we sign one yesterday. Thats Burkes territory. Leafs looking like a project for USA Hockey. Has anybody seen Burke at a Sudbury Wolves game checking out Marcus Foligno.

  • http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com Pension Plan Puppets

    Has anybody seen Burke at a Sudbury Wolves game checking out Marcus Foligno.

    I’m sure they have scouts watching the OHL.

  • Ron Guillet

    I live in Sudbury, and I gotta say, if we get our hands on Marcus Foligno……..*squeals like a school girl*

    He’s the exact kind of player Burke would be interested in. He’s big, he scores (not his strong point), fights, HITS (like a mad man!) and he is, for all intents and purposes, a pure ENERGY player.

    I would definitely take him the 2nd round.

  • J Reinhardt

    I would hang on to Stemp for another year unless there is a trade that would include him that makes sense. To me, if he cannot play one of the top 6 positions I do not think that he can play the defensive style required of a 3rd liner. With Kulemin and Tlusty and others…I think that they could fill the same type of spot as he does and they are younger and cheaper.
    To me we need to bring up some of the young guys next year and see how they play…give them a chance like we have with Mitchell this year.
    Do not rush the rebuilding process.

  • leafswest

    Ron, I live in Vancouver and I’m so happy to hear Mapleleafshotstove has a writer from the great City of Sudbury. You’ll keep the rest of us honest.

  • Ron Guillet

    Leafswest, do you come from Sudbury? I’m glad to hear Sudbury is not totally forgotten in Canada haha…..after all, we do have……the……Big Nickel?

  • Scot Loucks

    I like Stempniak. I think that Wilson does as well … Stempniak was the only forward with over 20 minutes ice time last night.
    .
    Like all young players his production will have a lot to do with who his line mates are. It’s not like the Leafs have a whole bunch of Savards on their team.
    .
    According to Burke his model is 6 top forwards, with the other 6 offering grit and defense. I’m not confident that he will achieve that model for next season. I think it will probably be closer to 3 top forwards and 6 forwards auditioning for the second line position.
    .
    I think Stajan will be gone this summer. I think Blake would be too if they could find a taker….. but assuming Blake stays the Leafs will have:
    .
    Grabovski
    Kulemin
    Ponikarovsky
    Mitchell
    Blake
    Stempniak
    Hagman
    Tlusty
    Stapleton
    .
    I think you can probably add 2 more UFA’s that Burke will sign to a Hagman type contract. (one a play making centre).
    .
    All of those players will be fighting for spots on the top 3 lines….. unless they are traded this summer.
    .
    If nothing else it looks like a training camp to look forward to.

    Cheers

    btw…. You are in Sudbury Ron? Was there last October on my way out to Winterpeg. Split my time between Winnipeg (most), Ottawa and Toronto.

  • Leafswest

    Ron. No, just an old prairie dog retired in Vancouver but have lived in Ontario and met lots of great folks from Sudbury.

  • gnashings

    Rober:
    “The Finns are the best goalies”

    Like that Brodeurkinnen fella…