Can the Leafs Make the Playoffs… Next Year?
You’ve read about the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, you’ve read about the Leafs’ current predicament, and you’ve read about Howard Berger getting “pwned” by Ron Wilson. Let’s take a gander into the Leafs’ crystal ball and see what awaits the club next season, shall we?
Let’s make this clear; the Leafs will not make the playoffs this season. You can subtract, divide, multiply, or do whatever complicated math equation you want, they will not make the post-season. We could argue about whether they should tank or not, but let’s discuss something a little more positive– and will also allow us to focus our hate on Habs and Sens fans (those bastards)… instead of each other.
In what appears to be a yearly routine, the Leafs are on a late-season surge, proving to be a heap of trouble for contending teams. While Tank Nation is cringing at the thought of moving down in draft positioning, these games are serving as great experience for the Leafs’ many youngsters. Here’s an interesting stat: Toronto leads the league with 323 games played by rookies. Mikhail Grabovski, Luke Schenn, Nikolai Kulemin, John Mitchell and Jonas Frogren are all players who are playing their first complete seasons in the NHL.
It wasn’t long ago when the Leafs were criticized for building their team around veterans– halting any development for their young players. Fast forward a few years later and the Leafs lead the league (the league!) in games played by rookies. As Bob Dylan once said, “The times they are a-changing.”
But the ultimate question is whether or not this change in philosophy will result in a 14th Stanley Cup. Let’s be honest, the Leafs’ prospect cupboard is not superb by any means, but it has instilled a solid foundation that will allow them to build a strong team for the future. And that, ladies and gentleman, is a start. I am not suggesting that reaching 8th place in the Conference will suffice for the Leafs’ last 40 years of mediocrity (although it may seem that way when it happens), but if they manage to reach that level next season, with the young team they currently have, it is undoubtedly a step in the right direction.
So, pertaining to the topic, can the Leafs make the playoffs next year? It is a question that is asked every year, and while Leafs fans are privy to their team’s inconsistent efforts, next year could very well be THE year. Not THE year in terms of a Stanley Cup, but for the playoffs. That may seem like a nonsensical goal, but it is a crucial first step for the Leafs and their quest to reclaim the Cup. For the first time in years, reaching 8th place will actually prove beneficial for the club, rather than some useless goal that will only prolong the Leafs’ mediocrity.
But the Leafs aren’t out of the woods yet. Building a foundation of promising young players is a step in the right direction, but the Leafs must not only continue to strengthen their prospect pool, but also begin to build around their future core.
Going into the off-season, Brian Burke has plenty of options to bolster his club for next season. Not only will the Entry Draft allow him to import more young players into the Leafs’ prospect pool, but it will grant him a chance to trade defensemen Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina. It is unlikely that he will trade both defensemen, but unloading one of them is certainly a possibility. Kaberle’s value could potentially get the Leafs a 1st round draft choice, and a prospect. Kubina’s value may be a little lower, but his 14 goals will also make him a hot commodity on June 26. I’m also a believer in replacing Tomas Kaberle with Anton Stralman. The Leafs, as proven, can survive without #15 on the blue-line. While Anton Stralman hasn’t been spectacular, he’s providing some decent offensive skills on the back-end. His development as a defenseman in the NHL is evident, and allowing him to flourish as one of the Leafs’ go-to guys – atleast on the powerplay – could generate some encouraging results next season.
Another date that will be circled on Burke’s calendar is July 1. He has expressed interest in signing collegiate hockey players, so you can expect the Leafs to be in the Matt Gilroy sweepstakes. Then there are the NHL free agents. While there are a number of players available this summer, I can’t help but do a one-handed fist pump at the thought of Mike Cammarelli in a Leafs uniform. He may lack size, but he’s the kind of scoring forward the Leafs could build around.
The Leafs will basically have the same team next season, as Grabovski is the only core player who is a Restricted Free Agent this summer – he will likely be resigned. So, with the Leafs currently sitting 7 points out of 8th place in the Eastern Conference, is attaining the post-season really an unrealistic goal for next season?
Not only have the Leafs’ players gained valuable experience this season, but what if Burke does unload Kaberle and/or Kubina this summer? And what about the free-agency period? The Leafs, with their current roster intact, could make the playoffs next season. Add in some outside help from a free agent or two (*coughCammelleri*cough), as well as the assets from trading one of our top defenseman, and the Leafs could end up competing post-April.
What will ultimately make the difference next season, in my opinion, is the coaching of Ron Wilson. I mean no disrespect to Pat Quinn and Paul Maurice, but Wilson’s “play hard or go home” attitude will go a long way with this young club. No matter what the predicament, Wilson does not accept anything less than trying your absolute best. The Leafs have been inconsistent this season, but as mentioned, they have played a vast amount of rookies. As the experience mounts, the consistency will come…and when that happens, the Leafs will officially be a team to be reckoned with.
I believe 2009/10 will be a pivotal season for the Leafs. Their young players will begin to establish their roles in the NHL, and the puzzle that is the Toronto Maple Leafs will start to slowly come together.
And since this blog is lengthy already, I’d like to note that Luke Schenn will be our future captain. He will raise Lord Stanley one day… mark my words.
You stay classy, MLHS.
ronguillet@mapleleafshotstove.com
March 26th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
i like the thought of signing cammilleri if the price is right. if the leafs can get a solid prospect a la schenn, kadri, etc in the first round they could have good pieces in place. I expect another forward to be shipped out the summer but what about signing a player like travis moen?
March 26th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
I agree about Schenn, but I think he’ll be our next captain. They’ll probably go with three A’s again next season, giving #2 another season to mature before pasting the C on his chest. He’s got heart and has “franchise player” written all over him. Plus, he symbolizes the youth movement and is already a fan favourite. If Cindy Crosby can become a captain at 21, so can The Human Eraser.
March 26th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Via tsn last night, they were talking about how much Camm will get via free agency … 6 million per was the consensus. What do you guys think, is the price right? Also, since we’re talking salary cap … anyone looking for someone to join a salary-keeper pool? I’m dieing to join one.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
i think next season is going to ride on vesa toskala.If vesa played as good as he did last year this year we would be sitting in the playoffs right now
March 26th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
I like what the Leafs are doing letting there young players play . But i like to see them get a top 5 pick without having to use draft picks to move up they can’t afford to do that. 6 mil for Camm is way to much. they can’t afford to make mistakes like locking him up for big bucks . I think Burke is smarter than to do something like that…Also when you call Sydney Crosby Cindy you make me sick you act like Montreal fans and thats about as low as you can go… He’s a class ACT just a great kid give him a break if he was a Leaf you think you think he was GOD…
March 26th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
I’ll go out on a limb and guarantee the playoffs next year. A full year of people buying into Wilson’s system would probably have gotten *this* lineup into the playoffs, Losskala or no Losskala.
The difference, of course, is that getting into the playoffs is only a first step. For too long around here it’s been the goal. Oh, nobody will say that flat out, but they sure do imply it with the “make the playoffs and anything can happen” patter.
They’ll finish 7th in the conference next year and probably bow out in the first round. Most teams do their first time in after having missed a number of years. But come 2010-2011, I expect them to go into the third round at least.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Good shift of conversation, Ron… I agree that as modest a goal as it may be, making the playoffs next year is both desirable and reasonable. Of course, it’s pretty hard to predict, given that once again the roster could look rather different next October. But I think it’s quite possible based on a few things others have noted: first, we’re not THAT far out right now with what is essentially a glorified AHL roster; second, the team does seem to be slowly but surely adapting to Wilson’s system and playing better as a result; and third, I have to assume that on the whole we’ll get better goaltending next year. I also think that ‘rebuilding mode’ or not, Burke will look to improve the roster in a reasonable, long-term way over the summer, and will have some cap space to do it with.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I’d say Camm for 6mil is about 1mil too much. Also, Cindy Crybaby a class act? Give me a break. I don’t consider guys who nutshot a guy who’s fighting someone else, or someone who jumps a guy right off the faceoff with no warning or someone who bitches to the ref every opportunity they get a class act. He’s a damn good hockey player but not exactly a class act.
March 26th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
As much as I`d love to see the Leafs in the playoffs I`m still not sure it will happen next year. Last year Edmonton was in a situation where they had some great prospects developing in the NHL (Cogliano and Gagner) and then look what happened, they both took steps back this year and a team that looked so promising may not make the playoffs. Not all Leaf players are going to take a step back, but the 2nd year is a tough year for players and if they trade Kaberle and/or Kubina then they will again be taking steps towards redeveloping. This team has great work ethic, but the talent to make the playoffs probably won’t be there until 2 years from now.
March 26th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Schenn as captain in two years? Absolutely. He already acts like the captain out there; he has since day one when he stuck up for his team mate over a hit on Stajan. He’s got a long ways to go, but you can’t help but like the kid.
Camm for 6 mill’ is way too much. Let’s not forget who he’s playing with this season – the first season he’s put up solid numbers and been consistent. I’d take a flyer at 5 million over 3 years – which is highly unlikely, but who knows how the market will be changed this offseason. I would still rather get a skilled player with grit and size to build around.
As for the suggestion to pick up Moen, I can see it happening. There’s a lot of Brian’s former Ducks and Canucks available this off season. Toronto has different needs than his teams in the past, but I am certain he will show interest in his former charges.
March 26th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Since its in the ethereal, why not the Sedins and trade up for a top 6 draft?
Tlusty is rising and Kaberle brings another key piece.
Add a healthy Toskala to the mix and that’s a lot better than an 8th place team
March 26th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Cammaleri won’t be enough … we need two first liners… not sure who… I am hesitant to say Gaborik… we could sign both Sedins (no matter how “soft” they are… they still can pour in the points).
March 26th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Sidney is a great kid , there is not one star who don’t complain he plays with class . If you watch the way he’s treated you would know , i feel sorry for you guys who think you know hockey to bad. Im a leaf fan i love to have him on my Team…
March 26th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Good article Ron.
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First thing that everybody has to take into consideration is the (almost for sure) reduction in the Cap come 2010/2011.
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That in itself is going to have two major effects on the UFA market this summer. GM’s are going to be very wary of spending to the cap (past next year) …. and UFA’s are going to be surprised at the low ball offers they receive.
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Toronto currently has 41.2m committed to 16 players for the coming season.
They have 17m committed to 5 players in 2010/2011. Not a bad position to be in.
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I agree with you about Kaberle. I would like to see him gone for assets before the draft. Kubina? May well be worth holding onto until the trade deadline in 2010. If Burke goes after Beauchemin then I imagine both are gone.
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As for signing free agent forwards I doubt that Burke goes after Cammalleri. Not Burkes type of player first off and I don’t see him committing the kind of money that Cammalleri or the Sedin’s are going to be looking for.
My guess is Franzen from Detroit and Moen from San Jose.
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So that would be 4 UFA’s on Burkes list. Franzen, Moen, Beauchemin and a decent back up goalie for Toskala. One that could play half the games if necessary…. or 2 fwds, 1D and 1G….. with no contracts over 3.9m per year and no players over 30. (Except maybe the goalie).
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Besides…. the UFA list for the summer of 2010 is far more interesting than this years crop.
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As for making the playoffs next year. I’d be willing to bet on it…. for the same reasons I stated on Michaels article.
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Add a healthy Toskala to a lineup with a number of sophomore players. Add Tlusty who is looking like he is ready. Add a Stapleton if you want a small centre that can score. Add a couple free agent forwards with Hagman type contracts. Add a shutdown guy like Beauchemin and a goalie that can split the season with Toskala if required….. I’m pumped for next year.
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Cheers
March 26th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Look at A.O. a great player with no Class no respect for the other team, trying to be like the idiot T.O he should join the nfl thats where all the idiots hang out…………………………
March 26th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
yes most people tend to forget Franzen is out there as well, he would be a nice pickup and it would finally give him a chance to have a first line role in the NHL. Moen and Beauchemin will most likely be signed by Burke, I would really be surprised if Burke doesn’t get them locked up quickly.
March 26th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
“i feel sorry for you guys who think you know hockey to bad.” – odd man rush
Have you ever heard the saying, don’t throw stones if you live in a glass house?
March 26th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
i can definitely see the leafs getting into the playoffs next year. with a healthy toskala and a bit more consistency they could’ve made it this year. so with more experience under the rookies’ belts, and a few key UFA acquisitions, i see no reason why they won’t at least compete for a spot next year.
March 26th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
I really feel like we need to land an elite young centre or forward. I wonder if Tampa Bay would deal their first round pick. In return we would send Kaberle and our first round pick. We may need to take back some salary. If Matt Duchene is available at the three spot do you make that move? Does it put to much pressure on him? Is it a mistake to invest that much in an unproven player? Sooner or later we need to draft a “franchise” forward.
March 26th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
Total agreement on the free agent signings, and i think we can get quality agents as well, or at least one of them. If this so called decrease in cap space actually come true, then it would mean that teams will need to unload or can’t sign key pieces. So with only a few teams like TO that have cap space, which i think its only 5 or 6 teams that can stay comfortable after a little shopping this summer.
So how it will be easier to attract players to come here, well if we can unload Kabs and/or Kubs before July 1st, we’ll have enough money to make a shoot at obtaining two players. Catch, their one year deals at (15m in space) at a max of 6m a piece.
Candidates ( Cammalleri, Franzen, Hossa, Hulder, Orr, Rupp, Beauchemin, Moens and Clemenson “yes i’m serious”) any two of these players would be piece to solidify the foundation.
My picks – Franzen or Rupp and Clemenson, one with playoff experience and excellent work ethics, and the other proving that he’s still a great backup.
March 27th, 2009 at 12:20 am
I hope the only free agents we sign come from collegiate hockey.
March 27th, 2009 at 12:27 am
Is Komisarek a shoe-in for going back to the Habs?
March 27th, 2009 at 12:56 am
looking forward to following the Catamounts through the frozen four. Looks like we might have a good player in Stalberg. He’s listed at 6-3 208 and putting up great numbers in Hockey East.
BTW
Dido: 14pts in 4 games. That’s not a typo.
Stefanovich: 4 goals in 4 games
Drummondville has slaughtered Lewiston.
Dale Mitchel is doing right by himself as well.
March 27th, 2009 at 7:55 am
I don’t think BB will spend too much on UFA this summer unless the Sedins hit the market which I doubt. Although it’s hard to gauge what will happen next year, I don’t see the Leafs making the playoffs next year. Leafs nation IMO will need to be patient, I think the 10-11 season will be the year the Leafs make a triumphant return to the post season.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Toronto will definitely be improved next season, especially if they pick up a few keys pieces this summer. But I also think Ottawa is going to be much better than this season with Campoli and LeClaire. A healthy Buffalo would make a strong push as well. Both teams which are currently out of the playoffs. So yeah it completely depends on what pieces are added this summer because the Leafs aren’t the only team going to look to improve their chances of making the playoffs.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:10 am
Cammy is a good sign if its for 5 mil or less….the panels will say hes worth more but they are being biased because he plays for a canadian team and has alot more attention. I think its a good idead because having him here attracts other people, ie nash if he wants to walk from colubus, or other guys. I also cant wait too see the small moves Burke makes this summer. I really like the way the team is going and I am thinking we can push for the playoffs next season, and while its not a must and I wouldnt be dissapointed to not make it, its the first step towards a cup winning team in the future
March 27th, 2009 at 9:27 am
Trade Stempniak for Jared Boll and a draft pick
Sign Mike Cammalleri July 1
Sign Matt Gilroy July 1
Resign Gerber to a modest back-up goalie contract
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Blake – Cammalleri – Hagman
Kulemin – Grabovski – Ponikarovsky
Tlusty – Mitchell – Boll
Mayers – Stajan – Devereaux
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Kubina – Stralman
Schenn – Van Ryn
Finger – Gilroy
Frogren
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Toskala
Gerber
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I think with a team that looks similar to that we can absolutely make the playoffs. I’m not including any of our draft picks from the upcoming draft because outside of Tavares, none will be in the NHL next year. Also… impossible to predict Kabby’s fate right now. I think he will be gone, and Stralman is the ideal replacement. But who knows if he will be used to acquire an additional 1st round pick, to move up in the draft, or bring in some other high end talent. So the above roster could look potentially better depending on how Kabby is moved.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:35 am
I think that looking for the postseason next year is something the club should be striving for (next year and every year), but I think expecting or predicting it seems overly ambitious.
This year’s Leafs have been carried on the back of strong rookie performances. That’s great, and it bodes very well for our club in the future. However rookies and sophomores are known for nothing except inconsistency, and strong debut performances often lead to lukewarm follow-up years.
It’s been proven by this club over the years that free agency does not often lead to immediate success, new players often need an adjustment period, and the effectiveness of skilled forwards is often tempered by coaching or the talent and personalities surrounding them.
In short, I think expecting continued excellence on the part of our newer players is reasonable, but historically speaking not guaranteed. And while free agency can add valuable pieces to a skilled lineup, free agency cannot be counted upon drastically improve a team overnight. As evidenced with the 06/07 Leafs, a team a few points out of contention that signs a few free agents for depth does not automatically move up the standings the year following.
With regards to rookies and free agents patience is required from all, and the Leafs need to make sure that whoever they add or keep is signed with long-term goals in mind.
March 27th, 2009 at 10:41 am
@Dan
Jared Boll is yet another fighter who can’t win a fight. I don’t see the point in targeting a guy like him. Kind of reminds me of Hollweg and we all love watching Hollweg get his ass handed to him
March 27th, 2009 at 10:43 am
I like that idea Dan and thats what Im thinking but Stajan is not a 4th liner so he will be delt, and your just assuming Stepniak gets traded. Even if hee doesnt that seems like he could be in there because I like his game. Keeping Blake on the thrid line and gettin a number one center is a better idea because Cammalleri should be a winger. They should go after Franzen, thats makes more since if they dont end up drafting a center
March 27th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Schenn drubbed Boll earlier this year, nuff said.
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I believe Gerber and Toskala will be the goaltending duo next season. Word is Gerber wanted to play in Toronto at his last free agency, but Ottawa offered the right dollars, and the Leafs ultimately went with….shhhhhh
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It could work wonders, or it could fall apart – this will be the key. If the goaltending is there, and the Leafs keep the shots against down (like they did to start the year) – definite play-off team next year.
Probably an early exit – young team, but it will be progress.
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Oh yeah – and going after Moen, Beauchemin, and Frazen this summer seems the most logical of signings. Might be hard to get Franzen here, but he’d be automatic 1st line center. I’ve championed Cammalleri before, but Leafs already have a number of undersized skilled players – even if he is better than all of them.
March 27th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I would rather see White in there as well other then one of those dmen….I havnt been paying alot of attention to Gilroy but I dont want them to replace White with someone so why sign him really? Maybe instead of Vanryn because he gets injured alot
March 27th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Ian White to me as a poor man’s Brian Rafalski. You need guys like this cause their cap number is low and they are effective players. White needs to be kept in the fold IMO. Due to the revamping more youthful direction, I think Kaberle and Kubina are not only expendable, but need to be dealt in order to acquire much needed prospects and picks.
March 27th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Roacho
I agree about the need to keep low priced quality players………too bad Moore didn’t take to disc offer to stay.
March 27th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
I think next year the Leafs will make the playoffs. They definately won’t win the Stanley Cup, but the experience the playoffs give to rookies is crucial if they want to win. Luke Schenn will raise the Stanley Cup one day!!!!! Very excited for that moment!!
March 27th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
@ Jordan
You’re right I completely forgot about White! He would definitely be in there as well.
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I think Gerber and Toskala splitting games maybe 50/30 next year should be good. If Toskala really isn’t playing well than we can let Gerber take over for a while. Toskala can’t handle a full work load, both mentally and physically. And Gerber should be able to provide competent back up netminding.
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I put Boll in there, not to be our #1 enforcer… but we need to add overall team toughness. Which isn’t just one big guy who can win every fight, but have the majority of our bottom six plugs as middleweight gritty players who aren’t afraid to hit and fight… like Boll, Deveaux, Mayers,… younger version of May, etc.
March 27th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Mayers IMO shouldn’t be used a 4th line plumber. He needs to get moved, he’s worth more than this. I’d also consider re-signing May, looks like he has a positive influence on the younger players.
March 27th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
ya heres what my head is thinking like….
1. Hagman, UFA, UFA (hopfully our 1t this year can fill one role in a year or two)
2. Hagman/Tlusty, Grabs, Kulemin
3.blake, mitchell, stepniak
4. best mix of May, stapleton, williams, ondrus, devereaux
top 6 dmen
-Schenn, VanRyn, Finger, White, Kubina, Stralman…..with Frogren, Oreskovic and Sifers not far behind
Toskala will be back and should get about %70 of the starts. If Gerber would sign a small deal I would love to see him play %30 of the games or so because lets face it, hes been the best goalie they have had this year and seems to be getting confidence back. Plus with him totally snapping the other night you can see his determination to win, I like him alot now
But basically I think we need to go to UFA for 1-2 top line players (I would like Franzen, Cammalari, or Gaborik, BUT WE CANT OVERPAY, look at the Breire, Smyth, Gomez and Drury situations….it just NEVER works out) unless we can draft one this draft. In that case I would sign someone like Antropov back for a year or two until whoever we draft was ready to step up, making Antropov expendable
This leaves Poni, stajan, Kaberle, and Mayers for possible trade bait, and all are completely tradeable for us and can get something back. Moving up in the draft being my first concern if I was Burke
Might sound stupid to some people so please dont flame me, but im just getting so excited for next year its not even funnnnnyyyy lol….anyone think I should change anything?
March 27th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Toskala and Gerber you want the Leafs to go into the season with no NHL caliber goaltender what a joke…come on man
March 27th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Ok, for one, both can be considered number one goalies…..for two, who cares? whats the worst that can happen! If they both shit the bed and we loose alot, they can try Pogge, if that doesnt work the we are sure we look else where, and we get another high draft pick next year. I dunno about alot of you guys but I would gladly watch another 2-3 years like this year if it means someday we will win the cup. I’ve been a fan for too long to keep putting this off
March 27th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
I would try my hardest to get rid of Toskala next year. Sign Pogge and et Ray Emery here as soon as possible. The truth is all we have are backup goalies (Whether Losskala is 100% or not). The bottom line is: We need a #1 goal tender not a necessarily a veteran, but someone who has had at least 4-5 years in the league and has PROVEN numbers playing 55-60 games a year.
HAS ANYONE REEEEEALLLLYYY TAKEN A LOOK AT EMERY’S STATS (NHL & KHL) !!!!
Attitude aside, this kid is magic. I think RW caoching antics would have this guy clean up his act and take things a bit more seriously.
BANK!
April 4th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Well they picked up Bozak, Hanson …. who’s next? Gilroy?
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