Season’s end, and a Leafs game still matters. Wait, what?

by on April 11, 2009 in Uncategorized - 152 Comments

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Normally, you would figure that game # 82 on a team’s docket, in a season where that team has been eliminated from playoff contention, would be rather meaningless.   Normally, you would expect it to be nothing more than perhaps an opportunity to give young players a bit of NHL experience before hitting the greens.

But when is normal ever the norm in Toronto?   Somehow, tonight’s season-closing game is still meaningful to the final outcome of the Leafs‘ season … as are the final games for the LA Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes, which will be played late this afternoon and tonight.

All that hangs in the balance is an opportunity to place in the bottom 5 of the league … a position which just so happens to be accompanied by a (slim) chance at winning the top pick in the upcoming NHL draft lottery.

The Current Situation

In 81 games played, Toronto has 79 points, good for 24th overall in the NHL … which is good for the 7th overall pick, pre-lottery.

In 81 games played, Phoenix and Los Angeles each have 77 points, placing 25th and 26th respectively, in league standings.  The Coyotes have 35 wins.  LA has 33.  Toronto?  Also 33.

Remember that the first tiebreaker in the NHL standings is the total number of wins.

Let’s run the scenarios:

Scenario #1:  Toronto loses in regulation

If Phoenix and LA both win,  all three teams will be tied at 79 points, with Toronto having the fewest wins of the three.   Toronto would finish the season with the #5 pick entering the draft lottery (and thus a slim chance at #1), while LA would have #6 and Phoenix #7.

If only one of Phoenix or LA wins, Toronto will finish with the #6 pick in the lottery, no chance at the #1 overall pick, and a slim chance at #2.

If both Phoenix and LA lose, in overtime or regulation, Toronto will finish with the #7 pick in the lottery, no chance at #1 or #2, and a slim chance at #3 overall.

Scenario #2: Toronto loses in overtime or wins the game

If the Leafs earn the single point they will have 80 on the year and the results from the Coyotes’ and Kings’ games will not matter (Phoenix and Los Angeles can only get to 79 each).   Toronto will finish with the #7 pick in the lottery, no chance at #1 or #2, and a slim chance at #3 overall.

Today’s Games

San Jose at Los Angeles
In SJ’s favor:  Sharks have won 8 of their past 9 games in Los Angeles.
In LA’s favor: Sharks no longer in running for President’s Trophy; SJ may be resting key players.

Anaheim at Phoenix
In Anaheim’s favor: goaltender Jonas Hiller has won 6 straight starts against Phoenix.
In Phoenix’s favor:  22-15-3 at home this season; coming off spoiler win over San Jose.

Ottawa at Toronto
In Ottawa’s favor: 19-10-4 under new coach; Toronto has allowed 30 GA in past 7 home games.
In Toronto’s favor: lead season series with the Sens 3-1-1.

What do you think will happen tonight?   Will the Maple Leafs be going into the draft lottery with the 5th, 6th, or 7th overall pick?

And can Toronto fans bear the thought of actually cheering for their team to lose to Ottawa, of all teams? Or would you rather see the Maple Leafs defeat the Senators (yet again), since going from 5th to 1st in the lottery is a low probability (8.1 % chance of winning the lottery) anyway?

Let the game(s) within the game begin!

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  • Kyle

    @Jon
    Yes, I have seen Schenn play. I am in no way saying he will not be a good player. I am simply saying that Cowen, Kadri or MSP could all potentially turn out to be just as good/better, none of us know for sure how players will turn out once their in the NHL. And I just wonder if what you would have to give up to move up those couple of spots will be worth it (seeing as how this will be the 2nd year in a row we’d be doing this)

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  • Jon

    @Kyle
    I think Kadri is over rated, but i agree with Cowen and MSP
    in fact i probably misunderstood you cause MSP and Cowen have a very good chance of being better then Schenn but where we are sitting i would be very happy getting schenn

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  • Kyle

    @Jon: Oh, Im with you if we could get Schenn with our 7th pick I’d be on him like a fat kid on a smartie lol! But, if he is gone and MSP or Cowen are still available I’d rather have either of them then overpay to move up a couple spots to get Schenn

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  • CarltontheBear

    How brutal will it be if our pick gets dropped to 8th because of the lottery?

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  • Kyle

    @Carlton: I refuse to let myself even consider that possibility! LOL

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  • Kyle

    although if that DID happen.. Im sure it would mean drafting Kadri… which isn’t the most ideal situation… but I think your doing pretty good as long as your in the top 8, after that I’d be worried

    My prediction
    1)Tavares
    2)Hedman
    3)Duchene
    4)Kane
    5)Schenn
    6)MSP
    7)Cowen
    8Kadri

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  • http://www.tmlfans.ca Schenn

    There is no way I’d be trading Kaberle and the 7th overall pick to move up a “couple of spots”, let alone take on a contract from another team to do it.

    Did you guys not hear Burke at the Trade Deadline, Tomas isn’t going anywhere unless a good young player, a prospect and a 1st round pick comes back. That being said, the draft positions will be set next Tuesday, so I could see him going for a Top 10 pick and a good young player/prospect, seeing as the draft pick would be a guaranteed Top 10.

    As for who we’ll be drafting, I think it’s safe to say Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane and Svennson-Paraarvi will all be gone in the Top 5, leaving us with the possibility of getting one of Schenn, Cowan or Kadri. Seeing as the Leafs look pretty set on defense, if it came down to either Cowan or Schenn/Kadri, I believe Burke would take the forward.

    That bing said, I don’t think anybody drafting in the Top 8 this year will be coming out with a bad player, but it certainly drops off after that!

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  • leafs89

    what would you do if LA won the lottery? : P

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  • Marvin

    I know people don’t think much of #8 and below, but I think whoever gets Ellis later in the round will end up being pretty happy. Kid’s got serious puck-moving ability.

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  • Jon

    @Kyle
    Ya I agree…. but…. would you do it for Duchene or Hedman?
    I think Tampa may look to move there pick, they need to make the playoffs next year and i’m not sure that they can get a player in the draft that will help them do that.

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  • leafslunch

    ..plus Tampa owes us a favor ;)

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  • looshV

    Great year for all the bloggers , I thoroughly enjoyed the frequency and variety of all the articles presented here at MLHS. As with any art form you invariably have to just “put yourself out there” and let the wolves sort it out. I am a long time drummer and the experience is essentially the same in music: some people like it, some people hate it…….and their usually not shy about telling you. So kudos to you boys, this site is fantastic. I, simmilarily, have to perform my craft on my time and rarely get compensated for it. Your in depth and interesting journalism is appreciated…….whether I agree with it or not. ;)

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  • daniel marois

    Well I am going to try and make myself feel better and say perhaps Toronto would have entered the lottery draft with the 5th pick but then a team behind them wins the lottery and moves Toronto to 6th.

    I am just hoping the lottery throws the Leafs a bone this time. The league took away the Leaf’s 4th round pick this year because of the Frogren signing and a nice gesture would be giving us the 3rd pick overall ;)

    I know if Toronto wins the lottery, people are going to go crazy that we would have gotten a chance to draft Tavares at #1 if we had entered the lottery draft at #5.

    But that scenerio is not going to happen. I have a bad feeling Dallas or Ottawa will win the lottery and push Toronto to 8th :( (

    Seeing how Doughty, Schenn and Bogosian and Luca Sbisa all played this year after taken in the first round last year, I have to believe another team drafting in the top-5 will take a defenceman after Hedman.

    If that happens, MAYBE Schenn and Kane fall to #7.

    Something to keep in mind. Columbus was drafting #6 last year and got arguebly one of the best fowards in the draft after Stamkos in Nikita Filatov. Nashvile drafted Colin Wilson at #7 last year, and he was a Hobey Baker Trophy finalist this year and just lead his team to a national title. And what about the Canucks? At the 10th draft spot they STOLE Cody Hodgson.

    But the difference was, 4 defencemen went in the top-5 last year. That’s why so many good forwards were available from #6-10 in the 2008 draft.

    But this year, it looks like only 1 defenceman will be taken in the top-5. Meaning, 3-4 of the better forwards after Tavares will be gone before the #7 pick.

    Can’t beileve that if the Leafs only lost ONE, yes ONE game more this year they would be sitting in the 5th spot.

    I say this in all sincerity but have fans stopped parading in the streets after beating Detroit in the first game of this season? Do fans still relish the 8-5 win over the Flames a few weeks ago? Even better, what about the game in Tampa Bay when the Leafs were down 3-0 in the middle of the second period, only to come back and win in overtime?

    That was the game that was the final nail in the coffin for the Leafs lottery pick. For all you anti-tankers out there, are you still soaking up that win in Tampa Bay?

    Think of the buzz in this city if Toronto was going into Tuesday’s lottery draft with the 5th pick overall and a chance to draft Tavares? Even if Toronto didn’t win the lottery draft, they were GUARANTEED to get a helluva player in Schenn or Kane.

    Don’t be stupid, Duchene, MSP, Kane and Schenn WILL be gone by #7 and Leafs will take Cowen.

    Remember the 1990 NHL draft when the Leafs were picking #10 and decided to take a chance on a defenceman who was still rehabbing from a serious knee injury? The name, Drake Berehowsky. Look how that turned out.

    Nice.

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  • brokensilence

    hey, i know drake berehowsky’s mom. haha.

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  • daniel marois

    I guess the other thing is that the Leafs might be forced to trade their 2 second round picks just to move into the top-5 of the draft.

    Had the Leafs been in the 5th spot, it would not be as costly to move up a spot or two.

    I hope London comes out as the OHL Champions and head to Memorial Cup tournament. That way, Kadri’s stock goes up and Brampton’s Matt Duchene stock can drop a bit but I don’t think he will be available at #7.

    Man, I am tired of complaining but would have been so much happier had the Sens played better last night. No way the Leafs play Joseph last because they did not want to risk having him lose and therefore have the NHL record for the most losses by a goalie.

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  • http://www.tmlfans.ca Schenn

    Well, Joseph already has the record for most losses by a goalie, but I know what you mean, he isn’t the sole leader yet.

    As for drafting Cowen at #7, I’d have no problem with that at all, seeing as recently as November he was ranked #3 behind Tavares and Hedman by the ISS and only dropped to #4 in December and January.

    We’ve all seen plently of players go down with a knee injury and come back just as good as they were before, so I wouldn’t be too worried about that. The Leafs would have a solid defense in the future with Schenn, Cowen, White, Kaberle, Stralman and possibly Boumeester!!

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  • Trevor

    What is Cowen’s injury status? I read it was a serius knee injury.

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  • http://admin Alex Tran

    @ Trevor: Blew out his ACL and MCL. Season ending surgery.

    Should be back in time for the start of next season.

    Everyone seems optimistic, but there’s always that risk that he loses mobility and speed.

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  • dan

    Kadri is overrated. He is having his stats padded while playing with Tavares.
    I think we have no choice but to move up to #5 like we did last year. Then it will be our choice to take Brayden Schenn or Evander Kane.
    .
    Duchene may be out of reach. I think Brayden is our guy for this year.

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  • Largus

    I’m proud of how the boys played down the stretch, and I’m glad we sealed the season with a win over the PoS Senators. The team took some leaps and strides and it was nice to see a number of young guys develop and grow over the last few months. Worrying about draft spots and lotterys is all understandable, but any top 7 pick could be great or a massive bust. There are no guarantees, and maybe the 7th spot wins the lottery and we move up to #3. At least we never quit, and young guys need to learn how to be winners, it sends the wrong message wanting your team to lose. I was proud of the fans for cheering the team off the ice last night, I would have done the same.

    The future is starting to look bright.

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  • puckbuddy

    I loved every win! The draft is only one part, not the only, needed to build a championship team. Seriously, between the 5th and 7th spot is not that different, it will never be a make or break difference. I would rather see a team that wanted to win every night and battled through than a team that would roll over and die… I for one have seen enough of that team the past few seasons.

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  • the Surreal McCoy

    @ Dan – Kadri doesn’t play with Tavares. SOMETIMES on the PP, but that’s it. Kadri carries this team far more often than JT does, and he plays with an edge. Have you gone to any Knights games? i’m guessing no.

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