Draft Watch ’09: Part Two – The Fab Five
With just a little over two weeks until the draft, it’s time to turn our attention towards some of the favourites to go off the board first. Last year, a small group of about six players (Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn and Filatov) managed to distinguish themselves from the rest of the class, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to pay a hefty price to move up. As we inch closer to the twenty-sixth, a trend is beginning to emerge that has the same five players at the top of every team’s draft board. Let’s meet the candidates.
1. John Tavares, Center, London Knights
Strengths: There’s really not much more that needs to be said about Tavares, as he’s been on everyone’s radar for a long, long time. John combines a deadly shot, soft hands and outstanding offensive instincts to make him one of the most prolific goal scoring prospects to enter the draft in some time. He is going to be an absolute force on an NHL power play, and has shown a penchant for coming through in the clutch.
Weaknesses: The only issue that may slow down Tavares’ ascension into the elite class of the NHL is his so-so skating ability. Aside from that, there is still plenty of room for improvement in his two-way play, but to his credit, he has put in the effort to make strides in that department.
The Verdict: A potential franchise forward, perennial 40-50 goal scorer; NHL Comparison: Dany Heatley
2. Victor Hedman, Defense, Modo Hockey
Strengths: While perhaps unfairly dubbed the next Chris Pronger, Hedman comes with a boatload, scratch that, a fleetload of potential. He is the entire package of great size, fluid skating ability, a strong point shot, excellent puck skills, and a lengthy track record of success. The added bonus is that unlike the rest of the names here, Victor has been playing and excelling in a men’s league since the age of 16.
Weaknesses: The one knock against Hedman is that he doesn’t quite possess the mean streak that scouts had hoped, and as such isn’t as physically dominant as someone his size should be. Tall, lanky defenseman tend to take longer to develop and get fully accustomed to their growing bodies, but the honor of being an elite pick in a very strong draft class comes with the added pressure to contribute right away.
The Verdict: A potential franchise defenseman and perennial Norris candidate; NHL comparison: Less physical Chris Pronger
3. Matt Duchene, Forward, Brampton Battalion
Strengths: Matt Duchene is the typical Canadian franchise player, offering an exciting package of skill, dazzling speed, a true understanding of the game, and the heart of a winner. Duchene is one of the brightest players of the draft class, displaying outstanding hockey sense that helps him create chances offensively as well as anticipate plays defensively. He has greatly benefited from being in the same dressing room as OHL Player of the Year, Cody Hodgson.
Weaknesses: As the one of the more complete players in the draft, there’s very little to criticize about Duchene. While he’s a little bit undersized, he makes up for it with a low center of gravity and is very strong on his skates. Playing on a very strong Brampton team, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to being the #1 offensive option further down the line.
The Verdict: A potential point-a-game forward and NHL Captain; NHL Comparison: Jonathan Toews
4. Evander Kane, Forward, Vancouver Giants
Strengths: Aside from Tavares, Kane is hands down the next best goal scorer in the class. He is a dynamic offensive player who combines a quick and accurate shot release, excellent offensive instincts and strong physical play to get the job done. Kane’s ability to anticipate plays in the offensive zone and read the defense are second to none, and as such is almost impossible to cover, especially on the power play. Kane’s physical play and tenacity proved invaluable to the Canadian Junior team’s triumph at this year’s U-20 tournament.
Weaknesses: As a formerly undersized player growing into his new tall and lanky frame, Kane needs to continue to get stronger in the upper body. He is a streaky scorer, who can pot 3 or 4 goals on any given night, and then go scoreless for a few games at a time. The Kelowna Rockets showed that Kane could be slowed down by tough, tight checking teams so he will have to demonstrate the ability to “bring it” every night and step up in the clutch at the NHL level.
The Verdict: A potential 40+ goal scoring power forward; NHL comparison: Jarome Iginla
5. Brayden Schenn, Forward, Brandon Wheat Kings
Strengths: Brayden displays excellent characer, leadership potential and a level of maturity well beyond his years. He is a physical player who will win the corner battles, lay out big hits, and is not afraid to drop the gloves. Offensively, Schenn shows great vision and playmaking ability, as well as a silky smooth skillset of dangles. He plays the game with unparalled passion and determination and will quickly become a fan favourite at the next level.
Weaknesses: While truly gifted in his own right, Schenn doesn’t quite possess the same offensive ceiling as the other members of the Fab Five. With a build of 6′ 200 lbs, there isn’t as much projection there physically as someone like Hedman or Kane. A little undersized for a power forward, it may be tough for Brayden to sustain his physical style of play for a long time at the NHL level, though Dustin Brown, a player of similar build, seems to be having no problem thus far.
The Verdict: A potential point-a-game NHL captain; NHL comparison: Mike Richards
That concludes Part Two of the ’09 Draft Preview. Keep an eye out for my list of mid-round sleepers and mock draft as we get closer to the draft. No promises yet, but I anticipate an interview with one of the premiere names in NHL scouting for the draft, so feel free to post any questions that you a feel a burning desire to get answered.
Always a pleasure,
Alex Tran
alex.tran@mapleleafshotstove.com
June 11th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Great article Alex. Really hope we can get one of these guys, especially Schenn or Duchene. With a new generation of power forwards like Getzlaf, Richards, Backes, Brown, Clowe and Lucic slamming their way around the league, it’s time we got one of our own in the Blue and White (and I know Burke thinks so too).
A question for the scout: How much do you think a team’s player development program (or lack thereof) affects a prospect’s development? Are busts busts no matter who picked them, or could they have been salvaged by a better team?
June 11th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
I say Schenn for the price it would cost will be our best bet. Also, its been said by a many scouts that he is suggested to grow to about 6’2 215 lbs. Thats a perfect size for his play.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Pens vs. Wings, with a Wings victory (hopefully), then a trade up to the five-spot to draft Schenn. And this is 2009 I’m talking about
A series on “Draft Candidates” for the Leafs is coming starting with MSP. Draft mode’s on ladies and gents.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Alec,
You mean MPS, right? I get his last name backwards all the time … if we draft him, it will be fun to watch the broadcasters and traditional media fumble about with that one.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:41 pm
Schenn’s size shouldn’t hurt him too much. you compared his style of play to Mike Richards and he’s already listed at an inch taller than Richards and a few pounds heavier.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
@Garrett, I’ve seen just about everyone go both ways on his name. I personally prefer MPS cause if we draft him we could say that stands for Miles Per Second lol.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
@Carlton:
Sweet nickname. You get the credit for coining it if he comes our way.
.
@Alex:
A less physical Chris Pronger? So is Hedman basically Brent Seabrook (who is 6’3″ 220)? Not bad if you consider how well Seabrook played for the ‘Hawks this season. Dominant in the playoffs.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
@ Carlton, Richards is 24 years of age.
I have no doubt Schenn will be very, very effective early into his career. It’s sustaining that style of playing into his 30′s without succumbing to nagging injuries that has me, along with some scouts, concerned.
Look at Ryan Smyth for example.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:50 pm
@ Gerard, I’m projecting a LOT more offensive output from Hedman than what Seabrook is offering.
I think Hedman is a potential 50 point defender.
June 11th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
@Carlton. You’re the funniest dude ! (not being sarcastic) lol
June 11th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
@Carlton, Alex:
Seabrook definitely broke through in the playoffs this year, and it is not a stretch to suggest he may approach the 50 point barrier in the near future. He is making the Brian Campbell signing look like a somewhat unnecessary move on the ‘Hawks part. Then again, having three top-pairing d-men on the roster (Campbell, Seabrook, Keith) is probably a good problem to have.
.
Could Hedman be even better than Seabrook? Sure, but there is no way to tell right now. All we can do is compare skill sets at this point. And even if he turns out to be a clone of Seabrook after all … well, after watching the ‘Hawks in the playoffs this year, I have to agree that would still make for one helluva good pick.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
@ Garrett, Not to mention Barker too.
My god the Hawks are so young and talented.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
@ Garrett. Who knows. But without spoiling it, no, I’m not an advocate of drafting M S/P P/S.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Alec:
lol … The man with the revolving last name. Sounds like a Hitchcock movie.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
MSP slips off the tongue easier so I’m sticking with it.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
Although I’d love to have Duchene on the Leafs, I think Schenn is attainable. We’ll see.
June 11th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
I would love to see a good canadian kid like kane or schenn go to toronto..like you said schenn is being compared to richards and kane to iginla if these guys come remotely close to those two in years to come toronto is in for a treat, i think we have enough europeans in the leaf system, no disrespect intended. MSP is a great talent but if burke has a chance ot go after schenn or kane i think its an obvious decision.
June 11th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Can we draft Cowen, and get it over with? I can’t see any of those “top five” being any better, given their question marks, apart from Tavares. I hope we land him, because our defence will be set for years with him and Schenn. Our forwards can be improved through the free agency for the next two years.
June 12th, 2009 at 12:29 am
with the talent available @ 7 i would just sit on the pick and use our assets…few as they may be, to try and acquire another mid first, or see if the kaberle-staal thing still has any wheels..which is not to say i want to drudge up that whole debate again here! but I’d scratch the ‘trade up to a top 3 pick’ scenario that’s been tossed around. i dont think the drop off in talent- although there is one – is big enough to warrant what it would take to get there
June 12th, 2009 at 1:01 am
Anyone want to drudge up an old time machine and just get the leafs to lose any one of their games? Maybe two just to be careful? How did we beat Detroit in the season opener???
June 12th, 2009 at 5:45 am
Stay out of the top five and insteed choose MSP, he is pure talent. He is going to be a 70-90 point player.
June 12th, 2009 at 6:32 am
MSP has not proven he can score at any level…look at his stats…the kid has potential and balzing speed…but wouldnt you want someone who has learned to score at some level?
June 12th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
A LOT may change tomorrow…
Prongner for Jack Johnson and the 5th overall..
June 12th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
@ Jon
.
Is that actually confirmed?
.
If so, Kaberle and Kubina’s respective values just got massively upped!!!
June 12th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I think a couple of the Swedes should be in this group. If the big Western dman wasn’t injured, he would also have been there.
June 12th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Pronger rumours not true as of right now.
.
Received an email this aft …
.
“Talk of one of the teams considering making an offer, post-Game 7, to the other team was leaked. That is all. Game of telephone … talk of ‘considering making a trade offer’ became ‘a trade was offered’ in no time.”
.
In other words, the names involved have been considered by one of the two teams, in the sense they were considering proposing the trade offer … after the conclusion of the playoffs. Once this stuff gets out, it takes on a life of its own.
June 12th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
i have a question for the scouts…
detroit has drafted many very good players late in the draft. are there any unknown gems this year that we have not heard about that we could hear about in the future??? i know its a long shot someone would have an answer for this but if a scout were to take a long shot late in the 3rd round for example, who would you draft as a little known player???
June 13th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
ok this is whats gonna happen
leafs trade
Kaberle
Stajan
2nd Rounder
L.A. Trades
1st Rounder
Jack JOhnson
then we trade our first down to get either kulikov/ellis and read in a couple round draft picks
June 13th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Danny – Gawd – I love that trade for the Leafs! Kaberle, Stajan and 2nd rounder for Jack Johnson and #5 pick! L.A. agreeable?
But lets’ NOT trade down – we take Schenn/Kane at #5 and either Cowen or Kulikov at #7. Perfect!
We then trade Kubina for the best offer – and see what Grabovski’s value is. I figure that Kubina, in a package deal, net us another mid/late 1st rounder. Kubina (plus) to Buffalo for #13? We select Kassian!
If we get a deal like you suggested, we can turn this thing around r-e-a-l quick!
June 14th, 2009 at 8:27 am
People need to relax a bit on the trade proposals, let’s not get too out of hand. The chance that we land three first rounders is somewhere between “extremely unlikely” and “never going to happen” on the odds scale. We’ve just got 12 days now, so we’ll see what happens.
You need to remember: Burke isn’t the only GM trying to make draft day deals. In fact, we’re at a major disadvantage in many deals because a lot of the bottom feeders are sick of being in the rebuild and want to add major pieces to make a major move next year. The best we have to offer are Kaberle and Kubina while other teams have guys like Pronger, Heatley, Lecavalier (they could add another top 5 pick right there), J. Staal and plenty of other big names including guys who are up for RFA/UFA like JBo, Cammaleri, the Sedins, Kessel, Barker, etc. who teams might like to get the negotiating rights to ahead of time.
Personally I would love to see us either trade up into the top 3 or pick in the 5-7 range and add another mid-first pick by trading Kaberle. But if we just pick at 7th it’s not going to be the end of the world, we’ll still be getting a great player as one of Cowen, Schenn, Kane or MPS has to drop to 7 and IMO they are all top 5 calibre guys (especially Cowen who was ranked 3rd overall behind just Hedman and Tavares before he got injured).
June 14th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Nice work on this summary Ace.
However, is there anyway that you can give us some more info on the players around our two second round picks? It is almost equally important that we dont F up those picks for the organization to build its foundation properly. Thanks for all the hard work.
June 14th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Excellent analysis!
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