LT73
I agree.
I really like your comment about how he was the best player on the ice on many occassions. Obviously you watch the games. If, If, If he is asking for too much coin, an arbitrator will settle it fairly.
Clearly his move to get out of the Canadiens organization was very sound. He was buried behind several inferior players. He had put in sufficient time and was not happy with the lack of promotion. What would you do if you were in that situation? Fletcher knew what he could bring to the table and wisely spent a second rounder to get him. Only 15% of second rounders make the league. Not only has Grabovski made the league, but he has shown a rare combination of speed, skill, and moxie. He is small but can hold his own. He is not afraid of going into the corners. He even hits as we saw when he hammered Markov. He takes hits and gets up and keeps going as when he got cranked by Lucic. Kudos to Oreskevic for settling the score on that hit. I ramble a little.

hey remember when we could have got this guy and a pick for Our Captain but instead Mr. Draft Schmaft gave up a pick? Yeah, that was great.

This is from Howard Bergers Archive:

The Leafs’ GM also indicated there has been no progress toward signing forward Mikhail Grabovski to a contract extension, and Grabovski — a restricted free agent — is threatening to take the club to arbitration later this summer. “From my perspective, I’m not sure what the arbitration patterns will be,” Burke said. “The last couple of years, there weren’t a lot of arbitration [cases], but the player has a vehicle to force us to pay him what he thinks is fair. I have no idea whether that’ll be the case with Mikhail.

“I have really simple rules: Once a player files for arbitration, we go. There are no settlements on the courtroom steps, and the player has to know that. We are going to arbitration at that point. I respect the process; it’s part of the CBA, and if the award is something we don’t like, we have the option to walk away. Or, we have the option to peddle the player. But, Mikhail’s a good kid and I’d like to keep him.”

End of quote. So Burke says he has no idea whether Grabovski will even go to Arbitration. He says he’s a good kid. I trust his assessment best.

Goodbye!

I love Grabbo more than anyone, but 3.5 is about a million more a year than he is worth. He may be worth it in a few years after he develops and finds his game more, but you dont pay players for what they could be worth, you pay them for what they are worth

My apologies if I have missed this somewhere in the thread, where is the source that says Grabovski is indeed seeking a contract of 3 to 5 years at $3.5M to $4M per season?

Grabovski is a $1.5million a year guy for a few years before he earns the privilege to get up over the $3.0million mark. An energetic rookie season is all we have seen so far. So 2 years at $1.5million is fair.

He should ask for more now, why not?

Paulster: Who am I and do I have a last name. I am Steve… and yes I have a last name – it’s listed on my blog under contributors in the top right. I’ll let you check it out and do the math on that one.

As for my KHL reference… if you actually READ the posting, I didn’t say anything that isn’t public knowledge and I didn’t say he is going to bolt to the KHL. In fact I said he is likely to do the opposite.

“Con 3. His ties to the KHL are strong enough he might decide to head back across the pond for more money. This isn’t to say he’d get more money in Russia, but obviously he’s a known quantity over there, and he’s comfortable playing in the KHL. He didn’t come over and play in the AHL to prove he’s a great KHL player though, and obviously he was willing to put in some effort to make the NHL. Now that he’s finally achieved that dream, I doubt he’ll head home unless he’s offered a truckload of dough.”

I don’t know why I was used as an example of his ties to the KHL. He played for Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik and Moscow Dynamo in the RSL, but the last time he played in Russia was in the 2005-06 season as a less than integral player. I think he was annoyed at how Dynamo made use of him, and he bolted to North America in a fashion similar to what’s being expected of him right now.

Let’s face it, the guy might be a bit flighty, but I think people are overstepping things a bit when they suggest he has “huge” potential. He has a lot of skill, but he just put up 48 points as a 25 year old rookie in the NHL. Whether or not he adds drastically to that total in the future is up for debate, but suffice it to say, older rookies don’t typically increase their production by a huge amount… but I’m not so sure he’s a typical older rookie.

Sergei Berezin is a decent comparable because he was a 25 year old in his first NHL season with the Leafs, and he scored 25 goals, but he only had 16 assists and he wasn’t that much of a passer. Grabovski has a better ability to distribute the puck, and that won’t suddenly disappear. The idea that he’s a one dimensional puck hog of the ilk of Berezin is a bit misleading. He has had more assists than goals in every season of his pro career, both in the RSL, the AHL, and the NHL. To assume he’s going to have trouble passing the puck is ridiculous.

Other comparables you might look at include Brian Gionta who scored 21 goals and 8 assists as a 25 year old in his 3rd NHL season. Then as a 27 year old in the first year after the lockout he exploded for 48 goals and 41 assists. So never say never on the improvement side of things.

Chris Kunitz and Ryan Malone are two other players that joined the NHL at a later age. Neither one played a full season until they were 24, and both have become regular 40+ point producers in the NHL. Kunitz produces more points (in a fashion similar to Ponikarovsky) and Malone is more of a character player who chips in 20+ goals, and both are power forwards that drop the gloves, so they bring more to the table in that regard.

The thing about this conversation is, you need to look at the comparables to see what sort of money they’re making. Last season, Grabovski produced 0.26 goals per game, and 0.62 points per game. Here is a list of players who have produced similarly over the past three seasons:

Brian Gionta: 0.27 GPG, 0.63 PPG (2007-08) $4 million (UFA)
Patrick O’Sullivan: 0.27 GPG, 0.65 PPG (2007-08) $2.925 million
Wojtek Wolski: 0.29 GPG, 0.66 PPG (2006-07) $2.8 million
Patrik Berglund: 0.28 GPG, 0.62 PPG (2008-09) $1.25 million
Jordan Staal: 0.27 GPG, 0.60 PPG (2008-09) $4 million
TJ Oshie: 0.25 GPG, 0.68 PPG (2008-09) $1.275 million
Kyle Okposo: 0.28 GPG, 0.60 PPG (2008-09) $1.67 million
Brooks Laich: 0.28 GPG, 0.65 PPG (2008-09) $2.067 million
Dustin Brown: 0.30 GPG, 0.66 PPG (2008-09) $3.175 million
Jiri Hudler: 0.28 GPG, 0.70 PPG (2008-09) $1.015 million (RFA)
Joe Pavelski: 0.31 GPG, 0.74 PPG (2008-09) $1.6375 million

The thing to remember is that a number of the aforementioned players were playing on superior teams, with superior line mates, which could jack up their numbers. Think about the production Grabovski might have had if he was playing with the linemates that Brooks Laich, Joe Pavelski, Jiri Hudler, Brian Gionta, or Jordan Staal get to line up with fairly regularly. I’m pretty sure that Ovechkin, Thornton, Marleau, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Parise, Elias, Crosby, and Malkin would help a little bit if Grabovski saw ANY ice time with them on the PP.

Now if we compare salaries of those players, the average for the group is $2.35 million… but a number of those players are still on their first contracts, and will get sizable raises as soon as the opportunity presents itself. The average for the players NOT on their first contracts is closer to $3.5 million.

He’s likely comparing himself to Andrei Kostitsyn, who signed a $3.125 million deal with Montreal as an RFA last season – based on his feud with the Kostitsyn’s this may be his sticking point. It wouldn’t shock me in the least if he’s refusing to play for less than the Kostitsyn bros. He’s demonstrated a bit of a strange streak already, and if he considers himself more valuable than those two, I think it’s part of what lights the fire under him to play well.

I wonder what would happen if Burke offered him the exact same deal as Andrei and told him to go out and prove he’s a superior player. If it’s any consolation to Grabovski, Kostitsyn produced 23 goals, 41 points, and a -7 rating this season.

I think Wolski’s $2.8 million deal from Colorado last season is a better comparable overall for the Leafs though.

Another comparable he might be looking at is the deal RJ Umberger signed with Columbus as a 25 year old RFA last offseason, for $15 million over 4 years ($3.75 million a year).

Another comparable that people are mentioning is the Krejci deal, which puts him in at $3.75 million a year for the next 3 seasons. People need to remember that Krejci will still be a Restricted Free Agent at the end of that deal, so he hasn’t hit his big pay day yet.

If Grabovski’s deal takes him through 3 seasons, he’ll be an UFA at the end of it and can cash in big time at that point. The difference in age is a factor here.