Schedules: Leafs Middle Out; Sharks/Bruins Struggle?
Last season in a draft, I chose Evgeni Nabokov for an H2H league organized by James Mirtle. It seemed early, but I had reasons. To win in fantasy GMs must find an edge using unconventional analysis and strategy.
That’s what I try to do.
Facts don’t lie and I liked Nabokov (and Backstrom from Minnesota) better than any goalie last season. It’s also why Tim Thomas ranked higher. This season both Nabby and Thomas weren’t ranked as high. Maybe the Bruins and Sharks struggle this season.
Why? Find out here.
Part of prep for fantasy leagues prior to each season is analysis to give GM’s the edge in every type of league. Fantasy is player-centric but good GM’s will explore other factors to make lists, prepare for drafts and develop seasonal strategies.
Like schedules.
Want an edge — especially in head-to-head leagues? Look at schedules where the league’s playoffs would likely occur. Note how many games teams play in a week. This affects decisions with rankings and perhaps targets at the deadline with a games advantage come playoff time. Rotisseries leagues have this advantage in tight, close races as the season winds down. Standout GM’s will prosper when it matters most … playoff time or down the stretch.
But this write-up isn’t about fantasy; it’s about reality.
I do schedule analysis mainly for goaltending purposes. Standard analysis looks at back-to-back games, home stands and road trips. I like looking at games played by teams on consecutive nights.
As if Stanley Cup Finalists, Pittsburgh and Detroit needed any more help, that which aids Pittsburgh can be a negative element in San Jose. Regular season dominance may fade on the West Coast this season, and its not just about stripping Marleau of the ‘C’.
Games On Consecutive Nights
In 2008-09, the San Jose Sharks held on for a one point President’s Trophy win over the Bruins for regular season dominance.
Boston played opponents that played the night before 16 times sporting a record of 14-2 last season. Missing out on a possible four points that would have crowned them President Trophy winners.
The Sharks faced opposition that played the night before in a league high 20 games (tied with Minnesota) sporting a stellar record of 16-2-2 record. Wondering now why maybe Evgeni Nabokov (41 wins) and Niklas Backstrom (37 wins) had such fantastic seasons? When they play almost 25% of their season against opposition playing consecutive games.
Last season, Pittsburgh played the second most (19 games) against opposition who played the night before, sporting a record of 12-4-3.
Switching the focus to this upcoming season, the Penguins lead the NHL with 17 games played against competition that played the night before. This figure includes three games versus the divisional rivals Flyers (which could be the difference between a Division/Conference title) and two games against Toronto.
Detroit ranks second with 15 games (twice against the Sharks) and once against Toronto.
The first/second seeds from 2008-09, Boston and San Jose, have only 7 games this season (down from 16 for Boston and 20 for San Jose). Bringing up the bottom of the pack are Colorado, Montreal and Nashville with six games against competition that played the night before.
The Toronto Maple Leafs play teams with games the night before nine times this season (Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo, NJ, NYIslanders, NYRangers, Washington (2), TB), with seven being at home. Last season they were 7-4-1 in these games, while drawing the Canadiens four times when the Habs had played the night before (2-2 record).
The Penguins face the Flyers three times when Philadelphia played the night before .. The Devils draw Pittsburgh three times when the Pens played the night before .. Carolina draws the Devils three times when NJ played the night before .. Phoenix draws San Jose three times .. Dallas faces the Coyotes three times when the Desert Dogs play the night before.
Conversely, hurt most by facing opposition in games on consecutive nights are the Devils with 16 games. The Bruins (13) are second and Chicago, Colorado and the Islanders have 12 for third.
Atlanta, faces the opposition only seven times in 2009-10 with games the previous night, while Detroit, Edmonton, NYRangers, and Lightning are tied with eight. With a playoff spot in mind, these games can create critical points needed to fend off teams in a stretch run. These are games that should be wins, and good teams take advantage.
The Leafs face rested teams in games on consecutive nights 10 times (Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh (2), Vancouver, Washington).
LEAFS SPECIFIC AT A GLANCE
Three-games in four nights: 8 times
Four-games in six nights: 5 times
Home-and-Home: (1) Devils in February.
Back-to-Back: 18 (second highest in the NHL (tied with Buffalo, Florida, St. Louis) — up from 13 in ’08-09
Opposition playing the night before: 9 (Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo, NJ, NYIslanders, NYRangers, Washington (2), TB)
Facing the opposition when playing the night before: 10 (Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, Philadelphia (2), Pittsburgh (2), Vancouver, Washington)
With so many back-to-back games, I am guessing Jonas Gustavsson get his first game possibly around October 12 or 13, Game 5 or 6 in the schedule. The issue now becomes, how does the coaching staff handle these games, especially in importance. If there is a 60-20 split in games played between goaltenders, how many will the Monster see in situations where they play consecutive nights?
katshockey@mapleleafshotstove.com
August 20th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Good analysis. That sucks for the Leafs, and probably makes it hard on Gustavson. I suppose its good we have two full defensive units and an extra two offensive lines…
August 20th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
I think if the Leafs are to make an honest playoff run, these games are critical. If you’re playing a tired opponent who’se expended their energy the night before, strike while the iron is hot and take those points away.
In 9 games, 18 points is the difference between last season’s finish and and a playoff spot.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
If Gustavson plays well in camp,which I think he will for sure, I think you’ll see him play at least 30 games this year and in key situations as well…they didn’t bring him in to be a typical back-up, but to be the goalie of next year…he needs to play to learn the NHL and the intracicies of it, the pressures and preperation!! Toskala will get more of a rest and play 50 games…both of them will benefit from that!
August 20th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Great blog, Gus. Taking a deeper look at issues like this always help put things in perspective.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
A lot of people seem to be predicting that Toskala will be a bust again, and that Gustavsson will take over the starting role. I don’t buy it. Always been a fan of #35, personally..
August 20th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Until we see him in exhibition games, Gustavsson’s range can be anywhere from 15-35 games. It’s guesswork until he actually faces NHL shooters.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
@Ron Guillet – I agree! but its the offseason, and all of our new roster additions still have the potential to be superstars in our minds and hearts. Once the puck drops reality will kick in. I think the back to backs are a good thing. It will force RW and BB to play Jonas in a justified scenario that wont make it look like we’re just trying to get Jonas ready for action so we can give Vesa the boot. I hope both are still around for the next couple seasons… 1a – 1b tandems win stanley cups… well they should anyways.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
wat stood out to me on the leafs schedule was the week between games from oct 17-24 shocking especially with the olympic break
August 20th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
@nkd
The trouble with playing Gus on back to back games is you are putting an un-experienced goalie infront of a tired team and maybe hanging him out to dry. This could be bad for his confidence and his development. Kind of like what happened to Pogge a few times last year. They need to be carefull to not destroy him before he can become a good goalie and at least early on, put him in situations where he can and will succeed. Otherwise the media and fans will tear him apart even though it may not be his fault.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
@Gus… could you give us a complete rundown of the number of times all NHL teams play against competition that played the night before. We have Pitt – 17, Det – 15, Tor – 9… etc.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
@Hap_Day
Here they are:
Teams that play the most times against teams that played the night before:
PIT 17
DET 15
ANA 14
LAK 14
NYR 13
PHX 13
VAN 13
CBJ 12
CHI 12
EDM 12
NYI 12
OTT 12
PHI 12
MIN 11
STL 10
TBL 10
WSH 10
NJD 9
TOR 9
BUF 8
CGY 8
DAL 8
FLA 8
ATL 7
BOS 7
CAR 7
SJS 7
COL 6
MTL 6
NSH 6
Teams with games on consecutive nights, where the opposition hasn’t played the night before.
NJD 16
BOS 13
CHI 12
COL 12
NYI 12
BUF 11
CBJ 11
CAR 11
PHX 11
PIT 11
SJS 11
STL 11
VAN 11
WSH 11
ANA 10
CGY 10
FLA 10
MTL 10
OTT 10
TOR 10
DAL 9
LAK 9
MIN 9
NSH 9
PHI 9
DET 8
EDM 8
NYR 8
TBL 8
ATL 7
August 20th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
@ Gus
And how many times each team plays back to back i.e. NJ – 16, Bos – 13, Chi, Col, NYI – 12 etc.
This will be extremely helpful in figuring out how many games a starting goalie might play.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
@ Gus
Thanks, you must have posted while I was posting.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@ RJ here y’are…
Interesting to note, the Bruins drop from 16 games last season to 7 this season and then become the prey on consecutive night games with 13 the second most.
If’ you’re banking on Thomas, it could be affect his totals.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
@ Gus
Thanks, and you are right, it may affect Thomas and Huet negatively and it looks like Lundqvist and Osgood may be affected positively by the schedule. Osgood could be a decent sleeper pick this year considering his regular season last year.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
@Ron
I don’t think people think that Toskala will be a bust, but more than Gustavson will steal the job…if that happens, and makes Toskala available to trade at the deadline, it would be great for us…we could get something for him before we lose him to free agency and we would free up cap room. Gustavson will be a RFA next year, but still cheaper than Toskala now. Don’t get me wrong, I think that Toskala will have a great year, now that he’s healthy…but I think that this kid is the real deal and will shine enough to make Toskala expendable.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
When I did the breakdown on a team-by-team basis, it’s interesting to see how indivudal matchups play a part in the playoffs races. For example:
The Kings play Chicago, Colorado, Dallas and Anaheim two times each when they have played games the night before. Those are huge four point games especially if LA is in the thick of a playoff spot, which is what I believe they are going for this season.
SJ plays Detroit, Anaheim and Chicago twice, when having played the night before. those are some tough teams to take on there under those circumstances.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Any recommendations as to which fantasy league might be best for someone new to the scene? How about which leagues you might be joining?
August 20th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
@ Rake
I have the same questions.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Jose Theodore’s second child has passed away at the age of two months!
This is very sad news. I lost a son at 18 months old and its the hardest thing anyone will endure.
Jose, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
@Rake and TuckerThomas
join the free leagues
August 20th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
@ LukeSchenn
How?
August 20th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/theodores-two-month-old-son-dies-family-says/article1258878/
August 20th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
@Tucker
Sorry to hear that pal and yes condolences to Jose. Terrible thing to happen!!!
August 20th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
@Rake and TuckerThomas
When Yahoo (free) opens their fantasy section there will be requests for members to various leagues.
Go here: http://hockey.fantasysports.yahoo.com/hockey
there will be plenty of leagues looking for GM’s. Find something you’re comfortable with.
August 20th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
@Captain Morgan
Unless multiple teams have a major injury in goal before the playoffs I’m not sure how much we would get for Toskola at the deadline. The goalie market may be saturated with good goaltenders with expiring contracts. Luongo, Nabakov, Toskola, Giguerre, Hiller, Turco, Rinne, Lalime, Theodore, Mason, Auld, Biron, Ninnimakki, etc. etc. are all unrestricted FA’s next year and some of the teams they play for will be out of contention and be offering these guys up making the market for goalies very weak. On the bright side, if Toskola and Gus really suck this year, next year there will be at least 7 or 8 starting goalies available as FA’s and a few franchise ones (Luongo, Turco, Nabakov). That is why I have been against us picking up Schneider from Van in any deal, some said we could flip him for a 1st rounder or a prospect, but who would give that up when so many good goalies will be available for nothing.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
i was playin fantasy hockey on nhl.com when i was like 12 (for free)
im sure they still have 1
August 20th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
but they let u change ur players..
i wasnt a big fan of that but oh well
August 20th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
50/30 split in goaltending.
.
Hopefully, maybe even 40/40 if Gustavsson is a hit.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
@RJ
I see a few of those getting signed during the year and not being let go…if Toskala is the best or second best goalie available at the deadline, his value won’t be so low…I agree with the Schneider statement…we don;t need a trade like that…we need a scoring centre right now.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
I think Gustavsson’s playing time will be equally dependent on his game vs. Toskala’s game. He could potentially play the majority of the season.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
i actually believe that Gustavsson will be the real deal in the NHL… in a couple of years. He will preform average at max this year. the leafs wont rush him… they will give him tastes to get use to it slowly (like they did Pogge, where he faces weaker teams). His first couple of games i believe will not be impessive and thats okay… aslong as the leafs dont throw him ito the fire and overuse him
August 20th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
@ MA – Gustuvvson is the real deal – but, I think he needs a year or so to establish himslef. Toskala will be showcased for the first half of the year and expect him to put up some very good numbers now that he is healthy and ultimately moved. What is surprising is the movement of Pogge – seemed like a natural to step up once Toskala was moved. Please, no one flame me for this – moving Pogge, at this point in time, and with his contractual status was not a wise move. I am unsure why Burke is moving out these prospects, but, one or more will come back and kick us in the @$$’s.. not this year per se, but, 2-3 years down the road – the obviousness of these mistakes will be realized…
August 20th, 2009 at 6:02 pm
@ Andrew R – moving Pogge was a good move. It gives him a fresh start and gives Reimer a shot. It adds to Burkie’s reputation as a player’s manager which is also worth something. And it removes any distractions down on the farm.
It is called addition by subtraction… and yes it might come back to bite us but it is a risk a confident GM makes as there is also a downside to keeping him past his “best before date”…before things start to smell…
August 20th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Haha are we still going on about Pogge being moved? It is un-friggin-believable. The guy coulodn’t make the Leaf roster. Get over it.
August 20th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
@honesthockey – either could Schneider with Vancouver, at the same age, with similar NHL performance.. I do not see Vancouver shipping him out.. as for your other comment, we are just discussing things here – you are not obligated to agree, but, a little class would not hurt..
@Hap-Day – I do agree giving Pogge a fresh start is nice for Pogge. You should watch Burkes press conference when he discusses Pogge. Unless you think he is flat out lieing, there is no denying this kids skillset. He is still quite young for a goalie to break into the NHL – heck, unless I am mistaken, he is younger then Gustuvvson for example…
August 20th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Somebody may have pointed this out already and if so I’m sorry. Interesting read.
.
.
http://www.crashthecrease.com/?p=6539#more-6539
August 20th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
@Cartika
And if I’m Schneider at some point I’m gonna be asking what gives. Believe me he will be moved at somepoint. My guess is that there will not be someone continually harping about what they believe to be a mistake. Pogge did not move forward in Toronto. Nor did Stralman. The sun is still shining though. The Leafs will move on and flourish without them. Burke could have said he sucks but what would that have done for anyone. I’m sure if Burke felt the way you think he does then he’d still be a Leaf and Gustavsson a Star.
August 20th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
@honesthockey – I apologize, however, I do not see anything of substance in your latest post – a fair number of suppositions I suppose.. Sure, Burke could have lied on his analysis of Pogge – I mean he didnt want to hurt his “conditional pick” return he garnered afterall right? If you are Schneider, you would ask “what gives”? how about in his only NHL opportunity he put up Pogge type of numbers.. now he wants to be moved because he feels he deserves better? is that what you are suggesting? As for Burke “feeling” the same way I do, can you please point me to where I said anything about how I “feel” of Pogge? All I have said is that it was likely a mistake to move him, while we held contractual control.. I could elaborate on this simple point, but, I will save this for another day. As for Stralman, my opinion on this player and this move is well documented – again, if you wish to disagree, please do so – but again, try and exhibit some class while doing so…
Thats it for now folks.. stay tuned for a new blog in the next day or so…
cheers
August 20th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
What value would it bring to anything if Burke said he sucks? Funny how you suggest Pogge type numbers in the negative when speaking of Schneider but it was OK for Pogge. At some point with Luongo locked in Schneider should be looking for an opportunity that he will not get no matter how well he performs in the Vancouver organization.
.
I never said Burke feels the same way you do. Quite the contrary by the looks of things.
So you continually post your unsubstantiated position on Pogge and Stralman yet if someone challenges your position it is considered classless? I think you need to grow up.
August 20th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
@ The King – Thks, funny how the Marleau to Leafs is running wild, like it was a couple years ago with Marleau and the Habs, but I think Burke shouldn’t hesitate to get him, but I don’t agree with the deal proposed, we’ll need to shed salary to fit him in, at least another 4-5m at the most.
Finger, Stajan, Tlusty and 2nd.rd. for the return to SJ.
August 21st, 2009 at 8:15 am
voodoo- If SJ would take that offer then I’d do it
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September 23rd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
[...] updated the charts for the previous post regarding schedules and goaltenders in a recent post on McKeen’s including a detailed breakdown on a team-by-team basis for those [...]
October 17th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
[...] Toronto has always been a bubble playoff team to me this season. To help their effort, the Buds must win games against the rest of the bubble teams in regulation to limit available points. Not to discount the importance of other games, because points are points. But these four-point games are must wins, just like games where they’re playing opponents who played the night before. [...]
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December 1st, 2009 at 12:40 pm
[...] Gus Katsaros Prior to the season starting, I had written about the impact of schedules. In particular, as the Leafs face the Habs tonight after playing the previous night, while Montreal [...]
December 2nd, 2009 at 6:15 am
[...] Gus Katsaros Prior to the season starting, I had written about the impact of schedules. In particular, as the Leafs face the Habs tonight after playing the previous night, while Montreal [...]