Food for Thought: Jiri Tlusty
A few days ago, we took a brief look at some of Gabriel Desjardins’ statistical work from behindthenet.ca. Using the junior hockey performance translator, we managed to project the future AHL/NHL impact for some of the Leafs’ bright young stars. The best and brightest of those stars is a 21 year old Czech forward by the name of Jiri Tlusty, a player who is going to take Leafs Nation by storm in the upcoming seasons. And now, I’m going to show you why.
Those of you who have followed my writing since the site’s inception would know that I have made it no secret that I am a big fan of Tlusty and expect great things from the young forward. At a time when Fletcher and Burke were brought in to clean house, many of the team’s previously believed-to-be cornerstones ala Colaiacovo and Steen were ushered out the door. After being misused in his first NHL season, and yo-yo’ed back and forth through various levels, it seemed like many were beginning to quickly sour on the Leafs’ 13th overall selection in 2006. Tlusty then got off to a slow start last year in the AHL, but come November/December we started to witness a slow turnaround, and I again preached the importance of patience. By the time March rolled around, the Tlusty bandwagon started to gain some more supporters, and I highlighted Tlusty and Stefanovich as the dynamic one-two scoring punch Leaf fans could look forward to in coming years.
Well, this time I’m back again to toot the ‘ol horn and I’ve got a whole bunch more interesting numbers to blow you away. The following statistics are courtesy of Zeke from Hockey’s Future, who did some great work in sifting through AHL stats pages from the last 5 years to produce this collection. Below you will find all the players from the past 5 years who have managed to score at or above a point-a-game rate in the American Hockey League at the age of 20 or younger:
R.Getzlaf (20): 17gms, 8gs, 33pts (82gms, 159pts)
C.Perry (20): 19gms, 16gls, 34pts (82gms, 147pts)
A.Radulov (20): 11gms, 6gls, 18pts (82gms, 134pts)
D.Brassard (19): 42gms, 15gls, 51pts (82gms, 100pts)
P.O’Sullivan (20): 78gms, 47gls, 93pts (82gms, 98pts)
D.Krejci (20): 69gms, 31gls, 74pts (82gms, 88pts)
B.Ryan (19-20): 56gms, 24gls, 58pts (82gms, 85pts)
J.Tlusty (18-20): 86gms, 35gls, 88pts (82gms, 84pts)
E.Staal (19): 77gms, 26gls, 77pts (82gms, 82pts)
S.Kostitsyn (20): 22gms, 6gls, 22pts (82gms, 82pts)
So again, to reiterate, those are the AHL totals for a very select group (PPG rate) of players up until the age of 20. An elite group to say the least. One player who JUST missed the cutoff was Kris Versteeg who scored 55 points in 56 games, another youngster who is very highly regarded league-wide.
When you get down to it and manage to place Tlusty alongside his closest comparables, you start to get an idea of how good this kid really is. He’s shown bouts of tremendous skill at the NHL level, and those who followed him on the Marlies know he now looks like a completely different player under 11 minutes a game two years ago. Look for Tlusty to light up the ACC scoresheets in the not too distant future.
alex.tran@mapleleafshotstove.com
August 26th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
ALLLright im back from work
firstly @steven, hilarious! it would look like his soul was trying to escape you at all times.
i have to get involved in the fantasy lines they are awesome cause everyone sees a different hole in them
for start of season
Hagman-Grabs-Poni
Blake-Mitchel-Tlusty
Kulemin-Wallin-Stempniak
Mayers-Primeau-Orr
August 26th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
@Alex Tran – I really like your writing style on this site and I personaly think your the best writer on here. You share the same thoughts I have in Tlusty but you have given the statistics behind it to prove to everyone he has all the potential in the world to be just as effective as a Bobby Ryan type player. When your that young there’s no telling what you can or can’t do but 25-30 goal 70 point season’s are not out of the question when looking at his capabilities.
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Blake Grabovski Kulemin
Tlusty Bozak Hagman
Poni Wallin Stalberg/Hanson
Mitchel Primeau Orr
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Followed by a solid defence group and which what I will think will be the comeback year for Toskala, the leafs have a chance at making the playoffs. They will do it as a young team which has not been done in a very long time.
August 26th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
@taterchips
in what world is Hagman a third line checker
August 26th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Matt Stajan (age 22): 66 points in 80 games played = 0.83 PPG, 25 year old currently on pace for 55 points
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Alex wrote that in march and stats may not always be write but Stajan did finish with 55 points excacaly !
August 26th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
@ LeafsRyan
Alex is so overrated! Blogging for any other team and he wouldn’t even be able to spell!
August 26th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
@ Alex Tran
That was a joke. Whenever I come to this site and see you wrote a new blog, I say to myself, “Oh! Cool! Alex wrote another!”
August 26th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
@ LeafsRyan: Thanks bud, always appreciate a kind word.
August 26th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Ohhh boys, I can’t wait for this fucking year… what a year its gonna be. There is going to be some mad drinking and watching Leaf scraps this year! I am so pumped about Beauchemin! Coming into the offseason I said Burke should sign Komisarek, Beauchemin, Orr, and Moen. He signed 3 of the 4 and got Wallin instead of Moen! Pretty much exactly the offseason I wanted except I was hoping to move up in the draft… oh well, now I get to watch Kadri in London all year! Go Leafs Goooo!
August 26th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
I like:
Poni-Grabs-Kulemin
Blake-Tlusty/Bozak-Hagman
Stajan-Wallin-Tlusty/Bozak
Orr-Mitchell-Primeau
August 26th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
@2 MINS
Wallin>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Moen anyday of the week too!
August 26th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Oh and IMO Stempniak is in the press box and gets the “Ian White treatment to start the year. It should do him well and get him wanting to play good again. I wouldnt write him off just yet
August 26th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
@Jordan
I wouldn’t put Blake with Tlusty. Blake likes to beat the crap out of our rookies remember
August 26th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
I dunno, I think Blake will rub off good this year. Hes comming off a good year and starting fresh again. The main guy is Hagman though, he is such a great guy to play with younger players. Hes a perfect role guy for our top 6. He never take penalties, is a 25-30 goal guy and is creative as hell.
August 26th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
think its fair to make the comparison down the road, that a stempniak could turn into a Fitgerald like player or not that much potential
August 26th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Blake: why did you take a naked picture of your self
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Tlusty: I did not think it would hit the internet
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Blake: Still why… just why? i wanna no queer
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Tlusty: Stop picking on me I can actually score goals and have potential your just an old guy
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Blake: BRAP, thats what you get for being bigger and better then me
August 26th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
@ LR
LMFAO! “Bigger”
August 26th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
I would love to see a line of Stahlberg- Bozak- Stefanovich even if it was just a short stint, stick Beauch and Komi on D to protect them. Oh I can see the younsters playin great together.
@ LR…LOL
August 26th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Someone’s got to beat up the rookies, I’d rather it be Blake than Beauchemin, Orr, Primeau, Mayers or Exelby…
August 26th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
unless of course they need a beating really bad, in which case…
August 26th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
…in which case we will send lescott, cuz he is really tough!
August 26th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Just a quick question. Can Mitchell start the season without having to clear waivers or would Burke risk losing him if he sent him down??
August 26th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Mitchell needs to clear waivers.
Here is a site that explains waivers quite well.
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http://www.nhlscap.com/waivers.htm
August 26th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Hey Alex,
Quick comment on the sorting through the stat sheet stuff.
I realize you were doing an u-21 stat search here but you might find http://www.eliteprospects.com useful. You can do statistical filters for every pro league world wide by age so you’re comparing kids u20, u19, u18, u17 and u16. It’s kinda the same idea… just at an earlier age.
You can use the AHL, NCAA, all the provincial junior leagues, the WHL, OHL, QMJHL, etc.
I use it all the time. Thought you might find it useful for comparison purposes in the future.
August 26th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
tlusty, grabs and kulemin sound great on a line, just pair them up with a d of komisarek and exelby lol.. i think they’ll be just fine
August 26th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
I dont see what the leafs are doing with all their defmance they need to pick up another goal scorer right now i would put the lines like this
fowards : grabovski blake poni
hagman stepinak kleuim
bozak tlusty white
stajan orr wallin defence:kaberle komisraek
bauchy schenn
excelby finger
goalies:toskala,gustavson
Traded:van Ryn forgren stajan (maybe all in a packge for a 60-70 pointer to add to our offence instead of stajan
August 26th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
@ Steve,
Thanks for that link. I’ve checked it out and will continue to look it over. Seems like it could be a good little tool.
August 26th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
@ Leafs2010:
Lovely… so you would put no C on the 3rd line, but have 2 C on the 4th line? Where’d Primeau and Mayers go? lol
August 27th, 2009 at 12:09 am
Alex,
With no disrespect to the other bloggers, I personally respect your opinion the most. Also I have been aware of how Tlusty’s stats compare with others who have become solid NHLer’s. However I still have some doubts with Tlusty. I think he has the tools including good skating and size. Also his statistical breakout last year was very good news. I guess the best way to sum up my concern is that in the Marlies games that I watched last year (about 40% of their games) he rarely seemed to really impress. I didn’t see the intangibles you like to see in your best players.
Now maybe I just happenned to catch Tlusty on off nights. If you can give me some evidence to prove me wrong then great. If Tlusty comes through I will be the first one to say I was wrong.
August 27th, 2009 at 8:45 am
The games I’ve seen ‘Lusty play, you really don’t notice him…until he’s all alone in front of the opposition’s net with a great scoring chance. He’s like a ghost on the ice but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He gets into the right places when it matters most. Brett Hull had a similiar style, you didn’t notice him until it was too late. I think ‘Lusty has first line potential and I can’t wait to see him play in The Show for the Leafs!
August 27th, 2009 at 9:40 am
Anybody think that my prediction of 37 goals for him is stupid now?
August 27th, 2009 at 10:19 am
@ phoenixzen
That is exactly what I have seen as mentioned above.
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Alex,
Any response?
August 27th, 2009 at 10:26 am
Alex, it would be neat to do a follow up post for how the numbers for those on the list then translated into NHL points.
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I’m sure there’s some crazy formula to figure that out using Ryan, Krecji, O’Sullivan, etc as a sample.
August 27th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
@Edward Flannery:
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Edward Flannery August 26, 2009 6:50 pm
@taterchips
in what world is Hagman a third line checker
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My point exactly. Go back and re-read my post. 2 Minutes made the point that Hagman would be a good 3rd line checker and listed him on the 3rd line in his lineup. I pointed out that he was way off base and that Hagman was a potential 30 goal scorer (which we’re a little short on).
August 27th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Hagman played a third line checking role only two seasons ago for Dallas. And he was good at it too.
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That is probably why he put him there.
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However he does have some offensive talent as well, so I would ideally have him in the top six.
December 27th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
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