Kessel Blockbuster: Initial Reaction
The infamous Brian Burke “stamp” that has become his signature since his times in Hartford, Vancouver and Anaheim arrived in Toronto yesterday in the form of Phil Kessel and at the expense of the club’s next two first round draft picks and this year’s second round pick. Any time a general manager moves not one but two first round draft picks, it constitutes a major future-shaping decision and one that will ultimately play a major part in defining the legacy of his regime. Yesterday we were reaffirmed of one increasingly apparent fact about Brian Burke’s rebuild – it’s not your traditional model. We’ve seen over the course of the last three months – from June to September – Burke aggressively pursue all available avenues to try to position his club as a contender in the short and long term. Certainly, the 2009-10 campaign just got a whole lot more interesting.
As is always the case with trades, time tells all. But here’s my generally positive first reaction to the deal, and a few debunkings of a couple of its criticisms so far:
-In the early buildup to the 2006 entry draft, Kessel was often referred to as USA hockey’s version of Sydney Crosby, but his stock dropped as the draft approached due to questions surrounding his work ethic and commitment. It would be pretentious of anyone who has not been in the dressing rooms to argue this as a problem since he has entered the league, but there have been rumblings of this being one of the reasons why Chiarelli deemed the fifth overall pick not worth the type of money the Leafs just inked him to. Talk of Kessel possessing the Dany Heatley “I’m a goal-scorer not a back checker” complex has been widespread on Bruins message boards. As far as we know, Kessel’s unwillingness to return to Boston had everything to do with what he, his agent and ultimately Brian Burke felt he was worth as a player, salary wise. As far as possible character issues, we can trust that Ron Wilson and Brian Burke, being familiar with both Kessel’s on-ice abilities and off-ice character through the USA Hockey program, do not believe they are a problem or something they can’t solve.
-As already stated, any time you sacrifice two consecutive first round picks in a trade, the move qualifies as a major decision and will be subject to immense scrutiny down the road, even moreso than your typical NHL trade. Burke believes he can restore one or more of the three picks sacrificed. Is this reasonable and what options does he have?
- Vesa Toskala. The acquisition of Joey MacDonald in the off-season provides a solid safety net, and while using preseason performance to project a player’s season-long performance and then configuring potential managerial decisions thereupon is usually a fool’s game, he’s looked sharp in the primers. I think it can safely be stated that he’s got the ability and experience to be a solid backup in the league. It then comes down to how Gustavsson fares this season – does he prove to need an adjustment year, pose half of a solid platoon, or does he eventually take the reigns altogether? If it’s one of the latter two, with MacDonald in the ranks, Toskala may become expendable. That said, the goaltending market may be at an all time high in aridness, but if Toskala can establish himself as back to health and relative form, Burke could pick up a mid-level pick here.
- In the short-term, move a defenceman. It’s no secret the Leafs have a surplus in defensive depth, and that Burke’s been shopping a few expendable names on the backend. Burke may well wait to see who outbattles who for spots in October, at which point Burke could be the beneficiary of possessing a couple of serviceable d-men on expiring contracts in Ian White and Mike Van Ryn. Where an expiring contract might have traditionally detracted from a players marketability, in a season that will precede an anticipated significant drop in the cap ceiling, picking up quality blueline depth without commitment beyond ’09-10 can actually be an attractive prospect.
- Tomas Kaberle. This is more of a worst-case insurance policy. If the Leafs wind up out of the playoff race in March, there are going to be more than a few Leafs fans looking around for answers as they approach a June entry draft without the team’s first or second round draft picks. Either at the deadline or more plausibly within the trade window that would open at the entry draft in the event of the Leafs missing the playoffs, Burke could recoup a mid-level first and more. This obviously is not a preferable scenario, but it still poses an important insurance policy.
While Bob McCown may be rhyming off terribly thought out rants about how the Leafs just sacrificed the equivalent of Nazem Kadri, Luke Schenn and a second round pick, a more reasonable projection is that Burke has converted a pick in the 15 range at the 2010 draft (which has not been tabbed as an overly deep one), a pick in the 20 range in 2011 as well as a second rounder for a #5 pick in 2006 that, based on last season’s level of production, should have been drafted even higher. It seems perhaps a bit costly on the surface, but consider how much Burke was asked to move into the top five at the last draft to understand how valuable a pick and subsequently a player of top 5 pedigree is. Consider also that the Leafs are coming off back-to-back top 10 picks and have recently signed two players many would consider as valuable as first rounders in Tyler Bozak and Jonas Gustavsson. This isn’t anything close to the Owen Nolan situation of 2003. Point being, the Leafs find themselves with a lot of long-term pieces in place, and with the depth Burke has in his roster, he’s in a position to recuperate a few second and thirds and perhaps convert a series of picks into a late first down the road.
-Was Phil Kessel the product of the league’s best underrated centerman and playmaker Marc Savard? Any winger cannot produce at optimal levels without a pivot that can effectively find him with the puck – it’s the nature of the position. Ironically, Nazem Kadri has drawn Savard comparisons from many scouts, and we certainly have reason to hope Kadri-Kessel will be a combination we’ll hear a lot from down the road. But this video of all of Kessel’s 42 goals in 2008-09 (regular season and playoffs) pointed out to me by a reader some time ago is actually rather revealing – often times Kessel can be seen opening opportunities for himself as opposed to simply being Savard’s go-to guy.
Consider also that Kessel played centre in his junior career, and there are even some rumblings that he wants to return to the position in Toronto. Whether or not he possesses the requisite defensive ability and commitment is up for debate and the feeling that he did not is what led to his wing placement in Boston. Either way, he possesses the creative offensive qualities and outside speed that can create opportunity for himself and teammates.
-In a season in which Kessel battled mononucleosis, he managed to post 36 goals in 70 games in the regular season and 6 goals in 12 games in the playoffs. Total the two and you’ve got 42 goals in 82 games, with Kessel scoring at a 0.5 goal/game pace when it mattered in the playoffs.
-I’ve perused some of the reports and discussion on the trade but I’ve been hesitant to for fear of inevitably coming across the assertion that we’ve overpaid for another player with a track record of only one year of real success. This isn’t Jason Blake coming off of a 40 goal season – his first and so far only year he surpassed 30 – at the age of 33. Kessel is 21 going on 22, and is coming off a season in which he appears to have taken a significant step towards realizing the immense potential that once had him pegged as a deserving first overall draft pick. Producing as he did in only 16 minutes a game in Boston, there should be nothing but excitement for the prospects of what he might accomplish in increased powerplay and overall ice time if Wilson can keep him motivated and find him some linemates with whom he can develop chemistry.
Your Toronto Maple Leafs may be in possession of their most promising young goal-scorer in many of our life times. By all means, be excited Leafs Nation.
September 19th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
The player I see as most likely to get a look with the Leafs is Rosehill. Can somebody tell me where the hell he came from?
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Cheers
September 20th, 2009 at 12:00 am
@Darkjester
I know on my list he is number one, but Grabovski is our number 1 center this year.
September 20th, 2009 at 12:01 am
Welcome Vic.
and have actually seen the leafs win the cup 3 times. Was at the last parade, it was my tenth birthday. I thought at the time that it was going to be a regular occurrence…. Little did I know 
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I’m older than you
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Best site ever for Leaf talk.
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Cheers
September 20th, 2009 at 12:03 am
@Jordan
I agree Grabs is our number 1 but will he center Kessel or will he stay with poni and Kulimen
September 20th, 2009 at 12:03 am
poni-grabo-kulemin/tlusty
Hagman-Bozak-Kessel
Mitchell-Wallin-Blake
Orr-Primeau-Rosehill
stempy,stajan
komi-kaberle
schenn-beauchemin
finger-exelby
MVR
———————-
Anyone have a problem if thats our lineup?
September 20th, 2009 at 12:09 am
I do Jordan…
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I think Van Ryn is going to be in there.
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I don’t think Rosehill will be getting 4th line minutes. I think he will be getting 2nd line minutes with the Marlies.
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Bozak will not be playing for the Leafs on October 1st. He and Stalberg and Hanson will be playing for the Marlies.
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Cheers
September 20th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Also stajan will be our 2nd line center
September 20th, 2009 at 12:32 am
I also don’t see kessel on the 2nd line. You don’t put ur only 40 goal scorer on the 2nd line.
September 20th, 2009 at 12:32 am
my picks for the starting line up so far this year after watching all four games . preseason only .. not any particular order or line combos
goal
Vesa/ Macdonald/ have not see the monster yet , so leaving that till I do..
def
Schenn/ Kaberle/Beauchemin/ Komisarek/ White/ Finger/ Gunnarson /Exelby/
Forwards
Stajan/Mitchell/Hagman/ Orr/ Stalberg/ Grabovski/Bozak/ Primeau/Blake/Rosehill/Kulemin/
Wallin. maybe Hanson as a spare.
thats what I have seen so far . 5 more games will give me a better picture,
tell me what u think, but must be based on seeing games not wish list. lol
vic
GO LEAFS GO.
September 20th, 2009 at 12:40 am
YA Jordan
pick 22 players .thats is the nummber for a roster. I dont see Tlusty making the team so far. and I see White in there as well for our deffence. but we each have our own thoughts, as for you Scot thanks for saying hello, I was 7 the last time the Cup came to To so your only a little older lol. Born and raised in Barrie,,,
September 20th, 2009 at 12:42 am
I love the way Kadri is playing but I think he would be much better to us when he is a year or two older, at least a year anyways, kid has smarts and skills I wish I had.
September 20th, 2009 at 12:44 am
Im sure u all are wondering were is Kessel on my team I picked , you must have read my plog no? players only that are playing now not in the future. just preseason games is my list good for. thanks
vic
September 20th, 2009 at 12:49 am
Rosehill comes from Olds AB Canada drafted 227 7th round in 03 to TBL. born in 85 ,6 ’3″ 210 lbs. shoots left played a little with the Marlies last year. if there is anything I missed just ask lol
September 20th, 2009 at 12:51 am
Scott,
If the players you just mentioned happen to excel at the AHL level, whilst the forward crew on the big club also plays well…….. is this how BB is planning on replacing picks? Clearly barring some major collapse, those aforementioned players (Hanson?) should be expected to be given full time roster spots as will Kadri I’m sure as well. Lets not forget about big bad Phil cause’ he just kicked someone on down the line come November. The spots available are going to be limited ultimately and there are a lot of young forwards who want to make the jump, I mean; based on the current pre-season do you see the long term players including Tlusty and Kulemin or Bozak and Stalberg? I have to think that these two players are going to be BB’s barter chips, and, if Stajan plays well along with Stempniak and Poni does he utilize this window to potentially maximize their return bringing the likes of Bozak or Stalberg up to the big club. He clearly will not let forwards go for nothing if he doesn’t intend to re-sign them. How do you see the scenario ultimately unfolding this year with our forward group?
September 20th, 2009 at 12:54 am
“I have to think that these two players are going to be BB’s barter chips,”
Tlusty and Kulemin that is……
September 20th, 2009 at 12:56 am
Burke said today on Leafs Lunch that Grabs would likely NOT be centering Kessel.
September 20th, 2009 at 1:00 am
Willson said today that we could have 3 scoring lines and I think he is right on the money, any one watch all 4 games so far besides me. we have some very good young talent and the older guys have a little more step in the stride. lookin good so far, cant wait till next game on tues,
go leafs go,,
vic
September 20th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Wooops…my bad. I thought Rosehill was not drafted (under his personal stats on the left side of his page at hockeysfutures.com it has his draft position blank and shows him signing as a free agent last season). Didn’t read the part about Tampa drafting him. I’m liking this kid though. Definitely a Burke type of player. Doubtful he makes all the cuts come Oct 1st but I sure hope to see him down the line.
September 20th, 2009 at 1:45 am
Two things I keep reading over and over, which are ridiculous:
1) Would you trade Schenn and Kadri for Kessel?
No, I wouldn’t. But I would trade Steen and Colaiacovo. You don’t know what you’re getting with any pick, and Burke is lucky to have had the chance to get a young proven scorer of Kessel’s calibre. If you look through first rounders from any year you will find picks that you would and wouldnt trade for anyone. This arguement is completely invalid. Not every pick will turn into a Schenn or Kadri, or Kessel for that matter.
2) The Leafs don’t have a Savard type to feed Kessel.
No, they don’t. Not right now anyway. But then I will ask, is the rebuild over? Did someone declare that the rebuild has ended with the acquisition of Phil Kessel? As far as I can tell, Burke is still free to make trades, signings and other moves to keep rebuilding this team whether they happen this season, next season or two seasons from now.
It’s amazing how people ignore certain things to validate their arguments, not realizing how ridiculous it sounds. Of course both of these statements are true but should in no way be viewed as deal breakers.
September 20th, 2009 at 4:31 am
@leafsrule21
Maybe we can get them to let Kadri play with the Colts, then we can watch him at the Molson Centre.
And I was six the last time we won the cup… was already playing goal for two years by then, and yes, wearing my Leafs sweater. (which looking back at the pics, pretty much covered my pads right down to the ice)
I expect there will be a number of established players being traded out this year to make room for the younger players that are showing so much potential.
I’d rather watch Bozak, Kadri and Stalberg than Stajan, Poni and Tlusty. Actually, Blake and Stempy haven’t exactly thrilled me either. That whole group just seemed so slow tonight compared to how the kids played the previous three games.
Some hard choices coming up for the management in the near future. Gee, isn’t that nice for a change…
Hmmm, speaking of hard choices, I wonder if Moore has been watching the pre-season games. LOL
September 20th, 2009 at 7:49 am
@zombie
get over it lol, your right and they still wont listen! I have been saying what you are saying for weekends now and at first EVERYONE thought I was mental, but now more and more people are realizing how the deal works in our favour. Its good to see us overvaluing 1st round picks a little, because before we just treated them like sweatshop kids who got hurt, and threw them away. Now were a little high on them but Im sure in 4-5 years we will all look back and say “damn that was a good move by Burke….no wonder we won the cup” lol one can only wish!
September 20th, 2009 at 7:49 am
weeks****
September 20th, 2009 at 8:06 am
Kovalchuk, Kadri, Kessel… 2010-11, the KKK line, just coined it, you heard it here first boys. Dare I dream??
September 20th, 2009 at 11:55 am
I don’t think that game would have been close if Vesa had have been on top of his game. Hopefully this transition into a new style comes quickly for him. I really think with strong goaltending, we can and will make the playoffs.
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Though it’s easy to say such a thing before the season has started.
September 20th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
A caller on the Fan who just said that he DIDN’T like the Kessel trade because the tampering accusation between the leafs and canucks is still ongoing and that if the Leafs lose then the compensation is ANOTHER first round pick or a player.
I thought that it was all water under the bridge and that it was over with. I mean this could be discussed IF we signed the Sedins, but they went back to Vancouver anyway.
Can any of the MLHS staff comment on this? I don’t think Burke would make the Kessel trade if he didn’t think he would have obstacles in his way.
September 20th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
I think someone tampered with Bettman’s brain-stem. That’s the only tampering anyone should care about.
September 20th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Has anybody asked this question. How many points will Savard get now that Kessel is gone. I think its a 2 way street.
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