Kessel Trade Wrap Up
An interesting question was brought up by Dave Hodge yesterday morning on TSN’s The Reporters amid the Phil Kessel whirlwind that erupted over the weekend: if Peter Chiarelli wasn’t interested in matching an offer sheet at the dollar figure to which Burke eventually signed the 21-year-old, described by Sports Illustrated’s Michael Farber as “a one in 500 chance,” why didn’t Burke submit the offer sheet and pay but a third rounder instead of an additional first round draft selection? Farber seemed convinced not only that Chiarelli wouldn’t match but that Burke’s decision to go the trade route instead of offer sheet avenue was to save face, anticipating the charges of hypocrisy he would encounter linking back to his response to Kevin Lowe’s offer sheet submission for Dustin Penner that ultimately went unmatched while in Anaheim.
We know Farber’s wrong on at least one account here, and that being where Burke’s point of contention was with Lowe’s offer sheet submission, which Burke described at the time and since has reiterated in wake of the Kessel situation as everything to do with a perceived blindsiding by Lowe as opposed to some sort of repugnance against offer sheets themselves. To paraphrase, Burke views offer sheets as a part of the collective bargaining agreement and therefore very much in the arsenal of any general manager, but believes an honour code of sorts exists where the filing GM should give advanced notice to their counterpart of a potential offer sheet coming their way. On his second point, if true it would certainly raise a question or two as to why Burke didn’t opt for the offer sheet route, but after sending out some emails and doing some digging, I’m not sure he’s entirely correct on that point either. Here’s what I gathered in a conversation with a trusted source:
-Burke believed Chiarelli would have matched and Burke was not prepared to “excessively” overpay in terms of dollar or term to assure otherwise due to his own present and future cap restraints. If Chiarelli were to match, he could not trade Kessel for a calendar year under the laws of the CBA, and seemingly a trade was the only way to assure Kessel became a Maple Leaf. There was no way the odds were as slim as Farber states when the return would merely be a first, second and third round pick package in the event of Chiarelli allowing the offer sheet (at $5.2 million) to go unmatched.
-Burke used the offer sheet threat to force Chiarelli to come to the table and talk trade, but the OS route was never preferred.
-That said, Burke would have filed an OS if need be, but while he wasn’t worried about being open to charges of hypocrisy, in his decision to acquire through trade there was consideration for his reputation in future dealings within the league.
-There is the belief among some insiders, however, that Burke backed Chiarelli into a corner and that is being met with varying degrees of condemnation, yet the pick package is substantial to the point where one can’t really argue that Burke got him for nothing as he paid a very healthy price.
-As reported, Chiarelli really wanted Callahan (only $2.3m per for 2 more years) and a prospect like Del Zotto or Grachev plus a pick, but the Rags turned it down. In the last minute, Dubinski was discussed but the Bruins wanted to dump some salary and the Leafs and Rangers were reticent to do that.
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The Bottom Line on the Kessel Trade
Brian Burke’s considerable accomplishments and strides forward in his tenure to date put him a position where he could finally break the bank on a true goal-scorer to put a much-improved club defensively, from the net out, over the top and into the playoff picture in the short and long term. In the free agent pool, he inked two defensive mainstays in Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin who are at an age where they can be playing out their reasonably affordable contracts throughout their prime years. He won the hotly contested sweepstakes for both Tyler Bozak and Jonas Gustavsson, 23- and 24-years-old respectively, both of whom many would consider easily of first-round-pick value, while also adding some young and serviceable pieces up front and on the back end in the likes of Christian Hanson and Garnet Exelby. Factor in the promise of the likes of Viktor Stalberg, Nazem Kadri, Jesse Blacker, Chris Didomenico, Mikhail Stefanovich and Dale Mitchell, and the Leafs have a long-term nucleus in place, and possess a number of current elite talents, now including Phil Kessel, that will develop and enter their primes simultaneously. It is too premature to say, but I have a feeling Burke may have found a way to make a quick yet proper rebuild more than a mere fantasy in the vein of Peter Chiarelli’s Boston Bruins model and as expanded on brilliantly by Ed Slater in the Maple Leafs Annual.
First-round picks are still first-round picks, and perhaps are as valuable as ever, but Burke’s depth is such that he should conceivably be able to recover a collection of picks if only in quantity, and his creativity is such that he may be able to then convert a few of those into a late first rounder. Even as it stands today, there has to be consideration put into the location of the two first rounders, which will very likely be beyond the top 10 and into the range of hit and [mostly] miss, to put the trade into its proper context. Let’s explore the types of names that have been drafted in the 15-20 range in the entry drafts spanning from 1998-2004:
1998 Draft:
#15 – Mathieu Chouinard
#16 – Eric Chouinard
#17 – Martin Skoula
#18 – Dmitri Kalinin
#19 – Robyn Regehr
#20 – Scott Parker
1999 Draft:
#15 – Scott Kellman
#16 – David Tanabe
#17 – Barret Jackman
#18 – Konstantin Koltsov
#19 – Kirill Safronov
#20 – Barrett Heisten
2000 Draft:
#15 – Artem Kryukov
#16 – Marcel Hossa
#17 – Alexei Mikhnov
#18 – Brooks Orpik
#19 – Krys Kolanos
#20 – Alexander Frolov
2001 Draft:
#15 – Igor Knyazev
#16 – R.J. Umberger
#17 – Carlo Colaiacovo
#18 – Jens Karlsson
#19 – Shaone Morrisonn
#20 – Marcel Goc
2002 Draft:
#15 – Jesse Niinimaki
#16 – Jakub Klepis
#17 – Boyd Gordon
#18 – Denis Grebeshkov
#19 – Jakub Koreis
#20 – Daniel Paille
2003 Draft:
#15 – Robert Nilsson
#16 – Steve Bernier
#17 – Zach Parise
#18 – Eric Fehr
#19 – Ryan Getzlaf
#20 – Brent Burns
2004 Draft:
#15 – Alexander Radulov
#16 – Petteri Nokelainen
#17 – Marek Schwarz
#18 – Kyle Chipchura
#19 – Lauri Korpikoski
#20 – Travis Zajac
Unless we’re talking the 2003 best-draft-of-recent-memory, which is by no means how the next draft is being tabbed, then the odds of drafting with two picks in the #15-20 range a talent that will go onto produce as Kessel did at the age of 21, proportional to the respective position, is highly stacked against your favour. Would you sacrifice two picks in this range, plus a second, to secure yourself a legitimate top 5 player who’s 21-years-old, and knowing your club’s biggest and longest-standing shortcoming is true first line talent?
I think you know where I stand.
September 21st, 2009 at 10:54 pm
damn right i would. the point is….kessel is only 21.
and out of those names, it is like a lottery to get the ones that matter.
September 21st, 2009 at 10:54 pm
I think an angle that hasn’t been covered yet much is this:
If Burke signs an offer sheet, this opens the door for Boston to negotiate with other teams. Kessel made it clear he wanted to play in Toronto, thus he controlled who he negotiated with as an RFA. Any trade with the Rangers or Nashville would be contingent on that team getting to negotiate and sign a contract with Kessel. If Kessel didn’t want to play there, he’s not going to sign and the deal falls through.
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If there’s an offer sheet, Chiarelli can match it and now his asset is locked up and Kessel losses the leverage in trade talks, thus making it easy for Chiarelli to finalize a deal.
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Let’s not forget that with Kessel on the IR, that gives Boston until November to deal with the over-cap issue. And given that the first 45 days or so of the NHL season can show teams what they have, or may not have, it opens up possibilities for more suitors than just NYR and Nashville.
September 21st, 2009 at 10:57 pm
simply a great post.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:09 pm
Great post Alec, and good points Brad. The summary of the draft picks also shows how good the Devils’ scouting department is, picking up Parise and Zajac and in back to back years at #17 and #20, respectively.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Something that has had me thinking lately is that yes, 1st round picks are hard to come by. But the last few drafts have been very deep drafts. No wonder a GM would be reluctant to hold on to his pick.
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Now, in a more shallow draft… GM’s may be more willing to trade a 20-30 slotted 1st round pick for a player like, let’s say Ponikarovsky.
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I would think Poni would be able to recoup the 2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2011 picks on his own. But maybe we should also take the depth of the draft into consideration when establishing the value of the pick.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:15 pm
Really nice job, Alec. I didn’t really need convincing myself, as I’m a fan of the trade, but it’s nice to see a list of draftees. Obviously there are a few nice names on that list (Geztlaf, Parise, Burns, Frolov), but I’ll be pretty surprised if Boston ends up winning this trade. The probabilities of pulling the lucky ball out of the barrel even with two shots at it in consecutive first rounds is simply not good. Of course, it will be years before we know for sure.
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Did you happen to look at the 10-15 range of those years? Not to play devil’s advocate – I’m just curious.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:15 pm
I mean, if we use the lack of depth of the upcoming drafts as a point to prove the worth of Phil Kessel… We should be able to do the same in proving the value of our own UFA’s/RFA’s.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:15 pm
The thing is Burke has a history of drafting high calibare players in the later rounds. See Perry, Getzlaf…This isn’t old management drafting steen,carlo,Antropof…All in all Im happy we made the move on Kessel because of our young up and coming forwards. I also think we can put together something for a 1st at the deadline to say Columbus with Kabs? However that will be alot harder to do considering we should be in the race for the playoffs.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
@ LeafRyan… Perry and Getzlaf were both drafted by Brian Murray in 2003.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:19 pm
And both in the first round.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:22 pm
@rafaeL… not hard to find:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1998e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1999e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2000e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2001e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2002e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2004e.html
At first glance, the lists don’t look any better than the ones I posted for 15-20… perhaps I should have expanded and included 10-20 to hammer the point home even further.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Can you imagine if we never gave up brad boyes…
Kadri Boyes Kessel …
September 21st, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Alec… over the next two years.. what is coming out of the US colege system..and are these players taken in the draft or are they free?
September 21st, 2009 at 11:34 pm
FYI, a great resource for the draft lovers!
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http://www.4shared.com/file/112338259/9b041dfa/Draft_History_94-Present_v2.html
September 21st, 2009 at 11:36 pm
[...] Maple Leafs Hot Stove: Kessel wrap up. Some very good points. [...]
September 21st, 2009 at 11:41 pm
really like having a young sniper in the lineup. I still think Bb is gonna make another move. You think picks or on his radar or an established playmaking center or what?
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:04 am
@Pazuzu
I don’t there are any roster spots left this year. If you give the young prospects even 2 roster spots (example to Bozak and Hanson) that still leaves Stalberg Wallin and the likes of returning players like Mayers on the bench or with the Marlies
If you add more players to this team that would be taking away ice time from the new guys who need to play at the NHL level
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:10 am
The Problem is that Chiarelli would not have been able to match the offer sheet because if he did he cannot trade the player this season.
This would mean that Peter would have had to dump salary by trade or demotion.
We all know how cheap the owner is so demotion would not happen. It would have been by trade and when a Team is strapped and other team know you never get true value (ask Ottawa).
Burke just didn’t want to set himself up for another team getting even with him down the road. Also I think he was saving face with his own ego.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:13 am
Stajan isnt going to be a leaf next year. So why not bring in Sundin to play centre on the top line? We can have Sundin for a year or Stajan for a year. Take your pick. And for those people that think we have to let Stajan play so we can get value for him at the deadline need to realize that he will not fetch anything higher than a late third round pick. It makes sense to bring in Mats for a year cuz Kadri and Bozak arent ready this year. Our centre position should look like this:
Sundin
Grabovski
Mitchell
Primeau
I believe Mats would take a huge pay cut to have one last playoff run with the Leafs.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:13 am
Sundin
Grabovski
Stajan/Mitchell
Primeau
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:17 am
Sundin isn’t coming back. Move on.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:20 am
@ Brad as leafericson pointed out – and I admittedly completely forgot about this upon my initial post – if Chiarelli were to match, he couldn’t trade Kessel for another year. The trade was therefore the only way to assure Kessel became a Maple Leaf, and with Chiarelli already getting mixed reviews from Bruins fans about letting Kessel go for the return that he did, I don’t think it was a sure bet he’d let him go for a value-for-value underpayment like the first, second and a third round pick return he’d receive if he weren’t to match.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:20 am
^^ might as well bring back eddie belfour. or stumpy thomas. heck, I mean maybe we can even convince gary roberts to come out of retirement.
bottom line is, sundin is not a top line center anymore. he’s 39 years old. the past is the past, let it die.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:23 am
Alec, simply wonderful piece – and I completely agree with everything you have said. What Burke has accomplished is absolutely remarkable to be honest.. However, there are some serious question marks in several areas.. Very difficult to complain when the net, overall result has been positive.. but, it is always worth investigating the flip sides – as even a great position and result could have been better.. but, for a long suffering Leaf fan.. these moves have been a breathe of fresh air.. even if things do not work out as planned, it is nice to have a GM with the required size of family jewels to pull off moves like this…
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:26 am
Alec, one more point… there is absolutely zero guarantee that Boston would not have matched.. and obviously Burke wanted Kessel enough not to risk it.. but, I still believe the smart move was to throw the offer sheet at Kessel and back the Bruins into a corner.. I would have been willing to wager Boston would not have matched.. the dollars, the term, plus being “stuck” with Kessel, who they clearly wanted to move, would have forced them to make other moves they would not want to make.. I say Boston walked away from the offer sheet and we saved a 1st.. but, if Burke is that convinced this is the kid he wants, and the difference between the 2 routes was the difference in value between a 1st and a 3rd – well, cant blame him for pulling the trigger…
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:39 am
Anybody who thinks Sundin is coming back, should once again, leave that shit at hockeybuzz.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:40 am
@Andrew… Based on the persistence of his pursuit and the cost of the contract (2nd highest paid right-winger in the league I believe I read somewhere), this is clearly the player Burke has identified as capable of being the Leafs’ top goal scorer en route to a Stanley Cup championship. He’s shown a ton of faith in the kid and trade was the way to assure he landed his player… especially if I and my source are right in thinking the chances of Chiarelli matching were more distinct than Farber indicated.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:42 am
most insight on the kessel deal of anyone in the blogosphere, Alec. kudos.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:56 am
@ Alec – If Chiarelli was really that set on matching, irregardless of the dollars – and this is the player Burke really wanted.. then its hard to argue.. those 2 1st rounders are tough to swallow, but, top5 picks, who are 21 years old and have already scored 36 goals in the NHL – certainly do not grow on trees… nice analysis and data – thanks Alec..
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:59 am
@ Alec
I’m all for the trade and your breakdown only furthered made me believe that, but the question has to be asked. Why not Cammalleri at 6 mil? For $600,000 more a year, we get 2 first rounders and a second – I think anyone would rather the picks then thay money. He’s only a few years older and has proven how he can score…. I just don’t get it.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:08 am
I heard they offered Cammy a contract but he chose Montreal over Toronto. I wanna see how Stajan looks centering Blake and Kessel. Was checking Stajans stats on NHL.Com and he had a really decent year last yaer. Top 40 in assists, comparable to Crosby in faceoff percentage, etc. He could have a 60 point year this year.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:13 am
Yeah, Stajan could really have a solid year. Not sure why so many hate on him.
I know Cammalleri said he wanted to play with Gomez, but I wasn’t aware he chose Montreal over Toronto. I thought he always wanted to play on the Leafs being that he grew up in Richmond Hill.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:22 am
Chemmy wrote a post looking at the 10th through 20th picks of the 2000-2006 drafts:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2009/9/21/1046891/the-middle-of-the-first-round
@Charlie:
Burke obviously went after Cammy and lost. No big deal. He’s part of the Lollipop Guild and Beauchemin and Komisarek will make him regret the decision. But like Alec said, this is clearly a guy that Burke identified as being a huge piece of the Leafs’ future and he was willing to gamble in order to get him. An offer sheet might have been cheaper but he could have been left with no Kessel.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:23 am
@leafericson
Chiarelli could have matched and then put Kessel on LTIR giving him until his return to free up cap space. He wasn’t painted into as tight of a corner as people think.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:23 am
I heard that somewhere, I think it was Nonis who in a short interview said he offered a contract to Cammy.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:24 am
Our top 6 is looking to be a little on the smaller side, not necessarily size wise (which some are) but also grit wise. A perfect addition – Brayden Schenn. Man, it would be awesome if Burke can pull that off.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:25 am
@LeafsRyan:
Burke’s not going to ask Kaberle to waive his NTC so unless he requests it he won’t be moved.
And based on the number of firsts that moved at last year’s deadline (0 IIRC) I wouldn’t expect the Leafs to be able to replace either one. I do however think that they have enough assets heading towards UFA to recoup a 2nd or two.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:25 am
@ PPP
Oh, ok… Again, I am very happy with the deal. I was happy even before the breakdown of the crapshoot that is the mid to late frst round.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:26 am
@Charlie
A perfect addition – Brayden Schenn. Man, it would be awesome if Burke can pull that off.
Yeah, that’s not going to happen. People should stop thinking about it.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:26 am
@ravidhaliwal
I would love have Sundin give it one last kick at the can with the leafs. He’d sign for 1.5 mil without a NTC and would be inspirational to the young guys.
If Linden, Fleury Shanahan could finish their careers with their most memorable teams.. Why then are Toronto fans too cold hearted to see Sundin a Leaf again…It ‘d be a win win situation. Heck trade him at the deadline if you want to.
@Alec
The 2 biggest acquisitions this year Kessel and Kadri are not the typical BB type of big tough forwards that this team lacks. They just added to an already smallish yet somewhat skilled set of forwards (Grabs,Kule,Stajan,Blake, Stempy,Hagman,Tlusty) Even Pony is not an intimidating forward..
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But giving up what we did, perhaps we could next year have used that for Toews or Kane also similar position that Boston was in this year against the cap. I’d rather take a chance at gaborik than Kessel. since you’d be giving up alot less.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:27 am
@ PPP
One first was traded – the Jokinen deal. Granted, Calgary chose for it to be the 2010 first, but nonetheless, a deal for a first.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:28 am
@ PPP
Oh, trust me, I know that ain’t happening- especially with the camp he has had. But a guy can dream, no?
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:28 am
It was Grabs-Poni and was it Kulemin that clicked really well at the end of last season? Can’t remember now who it was that played with grabs and poni? was it Hagman? let me know , k?
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:30 am
@ BLUEandWHITE
Why would a last year of Sundin be a good idea? He doesn’t know what it is to win, he isn’t a leader in the locker room and he left Leaf Nation high and dry when he had the chance to greatly accelerate our future. So he can go suck a nut as far as I am concerned. We’re not his team anymore- that was a decision he made.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:30 am
@BLUEandWHITE
@ravidhaliwal
He’d sign for 1.5 mil without a NTC and would be inspirational to the young guys.
Heck trade him at the deadline if you want to.
Three problems:
1. Sundin won’t sign for $1.5M
2. Sundin’s not coming back to Toronto
3. He wouldn’t sign without a NTC
@Charlie – Thanks, I knew that was wrong but still, the only asset the Leafs have that might come close to fetching it isn’t going to be moved.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:30 am
@ Pazuzu
It was Kulemin at the end of the season, but earlier on Hagman had chemistry with them.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:31 am
@Charlie – LSD Dreams? Sure
@pazuzu – It was Kulemin-Grabbo-Poni that hit it off to end the year.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:32 am
@ Charlie
thanks man.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:33 am
@Alec – Farber’s full of shit. It’s in his interest to make the Leafs look bad because he’s a Habs lover. Chiarelli stated repeatedly that he’d match any offer sheet. And I doubt Burke would let his ego get in the way of a good trade.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:33 am
I meant in the way of an offer sheet.
He doesn’t give a shit what others think.