Brady says Kadri Stays, Kats Says Um .. No

by on September 23, 2009 in Uncategorized - 48 Comments

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Some different thoughts for the day, including some fantasy changes for Leafs players, another fantasy show appearance, and addressing the talk about Kadri staying in Toronto this season.

I updated the charts for the previous post regarding schedules and goaltenders in a recent post on McKeen’s including a detailed breakdown on a team-by-team basis for those doing drafts this week and next.

Some changes that I’ve seen for Maple Leafs players fantasy value:

Francois Beachemin: I’ve always admired the big shot from the point, and with the looks at the Leafs training camp and exhibition, it’s likely that he will see a lot more power play duty than originally expected. In a 14 team industry expert league draft last night, he was my final pick. He won’t break the bank, but is great for value, especially with the possibility of increased power play minutes.

Vesa Toskala: It’s clear that Wilson is going to Toskala hard at the moment, in particular with the injury and rehab process for the Monster, and I’ve always considered him to be an elite goalie when healthy. He may not have the best numbers, but if goalies are thin, and there are more talented players available, it might be worth it to take the gamble as a second goalie later in the draft, and use your higher picks for stable, offensive talent. I did this last night. I had the first pick overall in a goals-heavy league where defensemen and goaltenders are gold. I picked Ovechkin first overall, waited for the 26 picks to come back to me, saw the goalies picking slim and took a chance .. I ended up drafting Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom with the next two picks, getting the entire Washington line. Toskala and Osgood became the goaltenders, and with the scheduling analysis from my previous post, I’m perfectly fine with the combination.

Niklas Hagman: It’s not just the sick goal he scored against Philadelphia, it’s the fact that he’s stronger and more composed on the ice. He flirts with career highs.

Fantasy Preview Show

I’ve received a few invites to do radio shows over the next couple of weeks, with an appearance tonight at 8:40 CST on the Illegal Curve Radio Show as they do their fantasy preview. If you’re looking for fantasy advice, I can always be contacted at [email protected]

Nazem Kadri

Greg Brady on today’s Leafs Lunch began by saying that with last night’s performance, Nazem Kadri made the Leafs. I chuckled, but gave him the benefit of the doubt listening to his opinion. Frankly, Kadri making the squad from junior wasn’t all that crazy a suggestion after speaking to people over the summer. Size would be the biggest issue, since the skillset is already there, and developing. Brady wasn’t out of line by suggesting he stays, but it’s not as simple as seeing what he’s done now, in an exhibition. The league changes as soon as the season starts, and gets tighter and tighter as the season progresses.

He will get a valuable season with London, looking for an OHL title, playing the big minutes, big roles without the likes of John Tavares, and could possibly get to the Memorial Cup for the second time in three years. Add to that the world stage at the World Junior Championships as well as the chance to bulk up.

I don’t for one second believe he stays with the Leafs, and Ron Wilson said, he won’t get a look at the NHL level before sent to junior, and for him to stay with the Leafs, he has to wrest a spot from Mikhail Grabovski or Matt Stajan.

I told a friend this opinion after listening to Leafs Lunch, and he smacked me with something I had told him back in the day regarding his boy, Jason Spezza. He’s an Ottawa fan, and his response was this:

To play devil’s advocate….

You’ve argued in the past that the best place for Spezza was developing at the NHL level rather than the AHL level. My evaluation tells me that Kadri is essentially right where Spezza was after his first training camp. At the time, I thought Spezza should go to the A.

How is this any different? Wouldn’t Kadri benefit from NHL practice and coaching?

My response was:

Ah, touche … very interesting … my only counter I think could be the difference in size, Kadri has to bulk up. Another thing is that Spezza was a necessity on an offensively fragile team at the height of the trap. His offensive talents were needed in Ottawa more than Kadri’s are needed at this present moment in Toronto; Kadri would be a nice to have, but not a necessity. The game is different now, more opened up, with a focus on speed and skill, but when Spezza broke into the NHL, he was playing on a defensive club, with some talent around him, playing for Jacques Martin, a defensive-minded coach. It would have been easier for Spezza to step in and contribute than Kadri would at this point in time.

This isn’t a matter of rushing, rather a route of proper development.

[email protected]

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  • Scot Loucks

    I think the thing that a lot of fans miss are the mistakes being made by all the impressive rookies. The give aways, the misses on the back check, being out of position.
    .
    These are all skills learned along the way… including time in the AHL.
    .
    I’d be very surprised to see any of the NCAA guys in the line up on October 1st. I think the only way that happens is if Tlusty just can’t get his act together.
    .
    I also think that Wilson is taking most of the press for a ride. The Leafs will not have a top 6 this year. They will have a top 9 constantly auditioning for a spot with the top 6 next game.
    .
    Which centre is best? Grabovski, Stajan, Mitchell? Grabovski has flair, Stajan has consistency and Mitchell has potential.
    .
    Other than Hagman, who stands out as a top 6 winger? Ponikarovski, Blake, Stempniak, Kulemin, Tlusty?
    .
    As much as I like Rosehill, I’d still put him with the Marlies instead of cramping his development on the leafs fourth line. He looks to have the potential to be a power forward. He has the hands and the head…. and he is tough as nails. What happens to his development if he gets 2nd line minutes with the Marlies this year?
    .
    Same goes for the NCAA kids… let them play 1st line minutes for the Marlies, playing on the PP and the PK…. called up as required due to injury.
    .
    Right now, the only question mark I have is Tlusty. Does he start with the Leafs or does he need some time with the Marlies, and if he starts with the Marlies, my guess is that Stalberg takes his spot.
    .
    Defense is totally different. Komisarek and Kaberle, Beauchemin and Schenn…. then what?
    .
    I think Van Ryn will be there when healthy, and Wilson has gone on record as saying that they will probably carry 8 D. I think Frogren will be the odd man out and start with the Marlies.
    .
    Cheers

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  • Scot Loucks

    @Bring the Cup home;
    .
    I totally agree about Beauchemin. He will turn out to be the best acquisition the leafs made this summer and Captain material? for sure.
    .
    Cheers

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  • HHT
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  • Ken_Breadbox

    I say keep Kadri for nine games. And only nine games. The reason I say that is (a) look, I know we’re not competing for the Cup this year, but you can’t go into the season with that mindset. You have to go in playing to win every game. Kessel will be hitting the lineup somewhere around the fifteen-twenty game mark: why not have a little mini-Kessel potting points for the first nine games? How does Kadri *hurt* our offense?
    As someone else said, if he’s going a a point a game plus clip, keep him up. Lightning *does* strike twice on occasion. Otherwise, send him down for all the very good reasons already noted.
    I don’t understand RW when he says the kids have EARNED a spot but not STOLEN one. If you’ve EARNED a spot, you’ve earned a spot that formerly belonged to someone else, i.e. stolen it. And if you ask me, Kadri and Bozak especially have outplayed a great many of the vets in camp. Rosehill, too.

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  • Scooter

    Let Kadri grow up and bulk up a bit before throwing him to the wolves. He could dominate the O and possibly be part of a winning WJC. Both great experiences for the kid.

    As for the NCAA group of Bozak, Hanson and Stalberg as well as Rosehill. I would think that they give Bozak and chance to start the season in the show. He looks to be ready talent and smarts wise, but I don’t know about him handling an 82 game schedule plus hopefully a playoff round or two.

    I read others here ready to put all the kids in to start the season. If BB and RW did that then where would the depth come from. You would have to trade the vets for NHL ready prospects (not picks) in order to have any depth in the organization. That is easier said than done. Aren’t most of us happy that we currently have a little depth in the organization. Sending the Vets down would require clearing waivers and bringing them back up would require clearing re-entry waivers. Blake, Stajan, Stempy, Grabs, Mitchell etc or whoever you would leave off the roster to make room got the kids all would look pretty attractive with the Leafs picking up half the salary and cap hit.

    The kids will get there chance to prove themselves as injuries occur throughout the year.

    One thing that I should note that many may not realize is that with the addition of Kessel, I believe that we are back at the max when it comes to pro contracts (50) and if so I don’t beleive that we will be able to claim anyone of waivers from other clubs that may become available. I think Burke needs to made a deal. Either a two for one or for draft picks to keep that option open. At least I think that might be a smart move, but then again who am I?

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  • wendel over mats

    Kadri will go back to junior.

    But he’s also been the most exciting player in camp.

    That’s just sad.

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  • IBleaf

    I just want whats best for kadri….Wilson and Burke will decide that!!!!

    But I have heard things like for him to make it he has to outplay grabs and stajan, Well outta the games I watched kadri was always the best player on the ice IMO. So, I definatly think that he has earned a spot on the team for performance but if he gets sent back down, its obviously for his best interest.

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  • BeLeaf

    If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly there’s no way Kadri sticks with the Leafs. Ron Wilson has stated many times that Kadri is not physically mature enough yet. Burke is also in favour of sending Kadri back to London.

    Bozak however, is a different story. Ron Wilson has played Bozak in every situation, and he’s been impressive. Power play – check, Penalty kill – check, play with “younger players” – check, play with veterans – check. I’ve yet to hear Wilson say that Bozak has to beat out Grabovsky and Stajan for a spot on the roster. Both RW and Brian Burke rave about Bozak’s “hockey sense”. I’ve heard Wilson take digs at Stralberg (needs to learn the defensive side), Hanson (see Stralberg), Kadri (needs to put on weight). I haven’t heard him poke holes at Bozak, at least not yet.

    Ron Wilson has said that both Kadri and Bozak could soon be magical players. Kadri – for all his gifts – simply doesn’t have the physical body to endure and excel over an 82 game schedule. I’m not saying Bozak is a physical beast compared to Kadri, but he’s simply stronger and more physically mature.

    As good as all the kids have looked, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bozak was the only one to start the season with the Leafs. It’s not that easy to move veterans like Mayers. I don’t think Burke (or Wilson) really wants to bury veterans in the minors. All the vets have shown up in great shape, which seems to have Ron Wilson excited. My guess is that the Leafs send Kadri to London, and Stralberg and Hanson are the first call-ups from the Marlies. I think Bozak starts on the 3rd line with the Leafs, and if he earns his stripes, he could very well work his way up to the first line by the end of the year.

    As Leafs fan’s, of course we’re excited by what we’ve seen so far from Kadri. But look at guys like Turris, Gagner and even Stamkos. All those players were even more hyped than Kadri and all three made the jump directly after being drafted. All three were slight (like Kadri), and a bit physically over-matched. Turris has already been assigned to the minors. Stamkos took over a half-season to start to contribute. Gagner has shown flashes of greatness, but still struggles when played tough. All three could and most likely will be great players. But what did that “early” year of NHL experience accomplish exactly? None of the players pushed their teams into the playoffs. Instead of Kadri having maybe a 40 point year this year, wouldn’t it be better to have Kadri play this year in junior, and take a chance that he could produce at a 60 point pace next year? There’s no doubt that Kadri will add muscle before next year. He will do whatever it takes to improve his chances at succeeding.

    Sorry for the length of the (1st) post. I really enjoy the site.

    P.S. I’m not sure if I’ve taken anyone’s user-name. If so, I apologize.

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  • cooper

    @Ken_Breadbox

    I think he means they’re playing roughly the same as the guys with 1 way contracts. As much as we want to see new guys get their shot, we have 2 guys fighting for the same spot, doing roughly the same job. If we send the new guys down we lose nothing and they play in the A, get called up when needed and learn. If we send the vet down, we risk losing them to waivers and burying millions in the minors.

    So to me when he says earned a spot vs stealing a spot, I think he means the new guy has to dominate to the point its worth risking the loss of the “asset” we’d send down.

    Why reduce the depth of the organization they’ve just spent so much effort to build up? They’ll probably start in the A, while Burke searches for ways to creatively free up spots without hurting the organization.

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  • IBleaf

    And One thing to a comment that Ive heard a few people say about how the number one pick we traded to Boston will probably a 15th overall pick. Kadri may of been drafted by the leafs 7th overall but in the Scouting Ratings he was projected to go around 15th. Just thought Id throw that out there.

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  • B Leaf

    Ahh.. Kadri has 3 years of junior behind him. He will make the Leafs better. BB has a very tough decision. I for one will not be disappointed if he stays. If he really struggles then send him down after nine games.
    Let me ask Leaf fans this: Openning night, you want to win, who do you hope is in the line up?

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  • IBleaf

    Is the answer kadri??

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  • JasonTrent

    One thing that many have not mentioned with regards to the NCAA line is the whole free agent aspect. One of the main draws to Hanson and Bozak was the opportunity to get NHL minutes. If Burke sends Bozak down one can just imagine Bozak saying something like:
    “I’ve been your best player in Rookie camp. I’ve been consistent, strong in all zones, productive and outplayed most of the players in training camp. You offered me a spot if I earned it. Have I not earned it?”

    If Burke puts Bozak down it hurts his credibility when trying to attract other free agents. The same principle applies, albeit to a lesser extent, when discussing Wallin and Frogren. You have to imagine both were selling points in attracting the Monster. If neither gets minutes, Burke’s credibility drops again. Frogren to a lesser extent, but a spot has to be Wallin’s to lose.

    And while I’m harping on Wallin. Yes he’s been slower, and not as physical as we may like. But his stick has been one of the best, knocking pucks out of the air (leading to a breakaway in one of the first games) and strong on the PK. His performance was not outstanding last night, but I believe he was paying on the wing, whereas he has played Center for about 10 years. I can’t believe he’ll be cut yet, barring horrible play in the remainder of the games. Mayer’s “injury” gives him that much more breathing room.

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  • The King

    @peterbeleafs
    .
    I am on the same page as you. That is what the line up should be. What bothers me is BB said he will move players to the Marlies if they dont perform. Now R Wilson is protecting the vetrans saying they dont need to prove anything ( yes Mayers ). Im not impressed with Wallim, Tlusty, Kulemin. I will bet 2/3 of the college line play for the Marlies but IMO they have earned a spot on opening day. Ron will not do that. I expect him to go with the vets.

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  • The King

    @ Scot Loucks
    .
    .
    I do not agree with your comment on Rosehill. Will he be more then a 3rd or 4th line player? He has played well enough ( well meaning goes hard and plays hard ) to stay. Mayers was brought in as a dressing room guy for the rookies and for his toughness. He did hid job. I believe his time is done here. No disrespect to Scot Loucks or Mayers in my comments.

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  • Ksavz

    If Kadri stays with the buds, he should be sent to the WJC, then brought back. I honestly don’t think he really needs another memorial cup more so as to just dominating the WJC. I think the people he’d get to work with there, and the high chance at winning something substantial is crucial in his development. If he stays with the Leafs i’d be very happy for him, as long as Burkie agrees to let him go to the World Juniors. (Oscar Moeller).

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  • Scot Loucks

    @ The King.
    .
    No offense taken sir. I agree with you that Rosehill has earned some time here. My question is whether he would be better off (development wise) getting 2nd/3rd line minutes with the Marlies rather than 4th line minutes with the Leafs.
    .
    Cheers

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  • leafsrule21

    any one watch the game tonite ,, the kids did well if u ask me , hope to see the Monster soon , does anyone know when he may play I hear on the weekend, Im hoping to see most of the young guys on opening day , what do u think the chances are of that.

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  • leafsrule21

    Leafs are going to be better this year and heres to a wild season of thrils and spills. Go leafs Go

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  • miggs

    Kadri could also pot a couple more this weekend and make the call for them.

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