Leafs/Sabres Preview

Explain to me why I can’t compare Antropov to Jokinen. Currently Antropov is playing on the first line of his team, while Jokinen has been demoted to the 2nd. Since their respective trades last year, Antropov has 22 points in just 27 games, while Jokinen has 21 points in 30 games. Not to mention, Nik is better on the +/-. So why is it an absurd comparison? Are you going to tell me I don’t understand the intangibles of the game again? Because last time I checked, Antropov is an emotional player who stepped it up in the playoffs, and was the Rangers best player down the stretch. Jokinen disappeared, and has been digressing for some time.
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Fact of the matter is that Phoenix was seen as a team on the up and up. Full of young roster players that carried them to a playoff birth for the first 4 months of the season before hitting a wall – and they did this without Jokinen producing impressive numbers. In hindsight, that trade was actually a poor example as a prime reason for it happening was the relation between Keenan and Jokinen. It was a ‘who-you-know’ scenario, but still, the Coyotes had a lot more going for them for the Leafs, who were percieved as a selling team, with nothing to do but trade away anyone with value. The Yotes, on the other hand, looked to be on the up and up. Their start to this season is the proof.
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Same goes for Vermette/Stempniak and Stajan/Plekanec. Why do you assume that these are absurd comparisons? Vermette has never achieved anything close to what Stempniak has. These are both 40 point guys who once had a 24 and 27 goal season respectively. Last year, Stempniak out-performed him in what was considered to be an awful year for Stempniak. You write off his production in Anaheim, but you also neglect the fact that he wasn’t getting rewarded for a lot of games before that. It all balances out on the score-sheet. You can’t raise up on stat, and lower the other. Stempniak has been good this year.
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As far as value of young players, that’s something entirely different. Perhaps I should have specified when I said that a team’s standing in the league can effect value. No one holds 19 year olds responsible for the futility of a franchise; their value is unhindered by their surroundings. In a sense, you and I are in agreement here, but where you see NHL GMs as cynical morons, I see them as optimistic oppurtunists. Certainly an opposing GM would look at guys like Stempniak and Stajan and wonder if they’ve contributed to the Leafs lack of success, but they are not going to totally write off a player just because of his team.
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Again it comes down to roles. Are Stajan and Stempniak losers? If you ask them to carry an NHL franchise, then yea, sure they are. What if you ask them to contribute in an appropriate role though? Teams looking to fill holes aren’t looking to fill them wih Ovechkin’s. They are looking to see what they can get with 2nd round picks, and project prospects.
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You seem to have this misguided notion that 3 or 4 guys are somehow responsible for years of futility in Toronto. I think everone outside of Toronto is aware that Stempniak and Stajan and Ponikarovsky are not legitimate 1st line players. They know the real problem in Toronto is the lack of star power and blue chip prospects. Guys like this can fill holes at much more afforable prices than more proven stars.
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I might agree with you on Bozak, if not for the fact that he’s been poor defensively too. I could see him excelling with NHL talent, but he needs to at least prove he can be responsible defensively in the AHL before he is just handed a 1st line center job. What other team do you know of that hands a college free agent their number one center job? That’s an absurd responsibility for Tyler Bozak.

You’ll find every excuse in the world to throw out Antropov’s recent successes, but throw Jokinen up on a pedestal for no apparent reason. You do remember why Jokinen scored so many goals in Florida right? That division has long been the biggest joke in the entire league. As the opposing teams became more competitive, Jokinen began to disappear. He is a one-dimensional player who is currently being out-performed by Antropov in that one dimension.
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And that was entirely my point regarding Antropov’s value. Even though he has been the better player for some time, Jokinen receives higher accolades because of where he’s been. Jokinen doesn’t have the disadvantage of having every error he’s ever made be the main topic of the media’s conversation. People were ripping Antropov to shreds last year, despite the fact he was out-performing Jokinen. To be valuable in Toronto, you have to be an elite superstar, and even then, there will be question marks (see Mats Sundin). If Stajan is playing for New Jersey right now, than he’s being talked about in the same vein as someone like David Clarkson – a young guy who’s continuing to develop in a positive way. In Toronto though, he’s had some 85 games to prove himself as a top scorer in the league, and now at 25 years old, we know that he is entirely useless, and should be dealt away for a 3rd round pick. Give me a break.
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The delusion here is that every team thinks all Leaf players are useless. These are creations of the media. GMs and scouts are able to identify talent, and separate their biases despite media scrutiny. Just look at all the former Leafs. Tucker and McCabe have taken on leadership roles despite being considered ‘cancerous’ in Toronto. Colaiacovo is considered to be a big piece of the Blues defense moving forward. Kubina is nearly a point per game defensemen in Atlanta, and Antropov has 12 points in 10 games. Last year, people were saying all the same things about Kubna and Antropov as you are about Stajan and Ponikarovsky – “I’m tired of watching Kubina take a stupid penalty!”, “Why won’t Antropov use his size!? He just isn’t a winner!”
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Also, I never said that Detroit or anyone else would pay for Stajan and Ponikarovsky as if they were 40 goal scorers, but mid-late 2nd round picks for all 3 of them is not an unrealistic expectation. To playoff-bound teams, those picks are absolutely expendable. The fact that the contracts are expiring is actually a plus in the current market. No one wants to be committed to something they aren’t happy with (for example, I think Calgary take a redo on that Jokinen trade, and would have rather picked up a 2nd line center in free agency – Olli has no chemistry with Jarome). Picking up an expiring contract allows you to have some freedom moving forward. IF anyone acquires Stajan/Ponikarovsky/Stempniak, they are going to be able to get an extension done. While highly useful players given the right situation, it’s not as though anyone’s going to be throwing 40 million dollar contracts at these guys.
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I think you’re vastly over-rating 2nd round picks and prospects, and that is where we are going off track. If Detroit spends a 2nd round pick on Ponikarovsky, and resigns him to a 4 year, 12 million dollar contract (or less as everyone takes a discount in Detroit), do you think they’ll care about that 2nd round pick? Do you think if they gave up on Johan Ryno to get a sure thing like Poni, that it would cripple their franchise? I understand that everyone wants to get value back whatever they submit in a trade, but for some reason Leaf fans don’t expect any value back for their players. Does no one understand that these mediocre players that no one wants have kept the team competitive even with the absense of any real stars (except maybe Kaberle)? It’s these same players that have infinite praise for guys like Dan Cleary, but really, is he even a fraction as effective without Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Franzen and Filppula subtracting attention from himself? Of course he’s not, but for some reason we expect this from Matt Stajan, and at the same time tell him he’s no good and not a winner. What a load of garbage.