Less Than 2% Chance Of Making Playoffs?
All jokes aside, I knew the chances were slim, but less than 2%? Is that really accurate? Apparently, Roberts’ site calculates a team’s chances of making the playoffs using a complicated algorithm much too complex to fully understand. But quickly, it takes into account many factors when calculating a team’s chances, including their current record, remaining schedule and goal differential.
Thinking about it logically, it seems about right to me. The Maple Leafs are 3-10-5, meaning that they have 11 of a possible 36 points and are 11 points back of the last playoff spot.
Now I know they aren’t as bad as their record indicates because of their awful start, but think about how the Leafs played prior to their current 3-game losing streak.
Look back to that 8-game stretch that started with that tough loss in Vancouver and ended with that drubbing of Detroit. Arguably, they played as well as they could over those 8 games, and could only muster a 3-1-4 record.
Call me a glass-half-empty type of guy, but if that’s the best the Leafs can play, and they only got 10 out of a possible 16 points, how are they going to fare when they aren’t playing their best? Well, the 10 games not in that 8-game stretch were all losses.
Knowing that they can’t possibly play their best for the rest of the season, and their best wasn’t even that spectacular, a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs seems about right. Even worse, this also means that the Bruins have a 98.3% chance of landing a lottery pick, because of the Phil Kessel trade.
However, for those of you that are eternal optimists, Roberts noted in today’s Toronto Star that the St. Louis Blues had a 1% chance of making the playoffs about halfway into last season. They then went on to have the 3rd-best record in the 2nd half and made the playoffs…Go Leafs Go!?
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