Speculation Running Amok
It’s been widely reported the past few days that Leafs’ GM Brian Burke is working on at least two trades in an effort to provide a much-needed shakeup to the team.
Sifting through the vast amounts of information, misinformation, and fanboy longing, two teams keep getting repeated over and over … enough to raise at least one speculative eyebrow.
Chicago
The HNIC panel spent some time discussing the latest Chicago rumour on Saturday night, which has Chicago shopping defender Brent Sopel in an effort to clear some cap space to sign three core players (Toews, Kane, Keith) who are pending RFAs. The panel noted that the Leafs may be willing to help the Hawks out of their cap bind … for a price.
Of course, what the panel did not mention was how exactly the Leafs would do that. They do have roughly $1.600,000 of acquisition space on the cap (pro-rated values are a bit complicated, but that’s the rough number according to CapGeek.com). Which makes a deal doable under the cap, but tight. This is where talk of a second deal comes into play … I will get to that a little later on.
A note on acquisition space: contracts are often listed during the season at their full-season value, e.g. a player carres a $1.3m cap hit for the season. Acquisition space is the calculation of the equivalent full-season value of a contract the team would be able to acquire at a given point in time.
Let’s say, hypothetically, the Leafs were interested in Sopel. Anytime a player is being shopped, a good GM will take a look, right? Sopel carries a cap hit of $2.33m, and has one more year remaining on his deal. In order to sign their pending RFAs to contract extensions, the Hawks need to clear some space off of next season’s cap. Therefore, their interest would lie in acquiring either draft picks (which the Leafs do not have many to trade) or players on expiring contracts (the Leafs do have a few of those).
Naturally, speculation surrounding this deal has focussed on Garnet Exelby. He is on an expiring contract, is less expensive ($1.3m) for this season than Sopel, and moving a defender for a defender would solve a roster space issue for both teams. Further, the money would almost exactly work out (diff in contracts = appx $1 million, acquisition space = $1.6 m).
And yes, the Leafs would get the draft pick out of the deal — the price for helping Chicago out of a jam — but how good of a pick can you realistically expect? History suggests a 4th rounder is the best they will get. That is what the Leafs got for taking contracts on from Tampa Bay at last year’s deadline, and (as an even better example) is what the Leafs paid to Florida to take Brian McCabe’s contract off their hands. To procure anything higher than a 4th out of a player-for-player deal for Sopel would be, quite simply, miraculous.
UPDATE: TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (via Twitter) that the Hawks are offering Sopel + pick, or Sopel + prospect.
So why do the deal, if it ultimately does little to help the team?
Hence the other Chicago rumour, the one that won’t die. HNIC did their best the other week to refute the Hawks-Leafs rumour involving Brian Campbell, but spotters in Chicago continue to insist that it has legs. To be completely honest, I find this one very difficult to gauge given the amount of bias involved in both cities. In Chicago, the deal is getting pushed as real in large part because of the desire to get rid of Campbell’s onerous contract. In Toronto, the bias is strongly against the deal because people do not want to see the Leafs pick up that very contract.
But let’s play the hypothesis game on this one, as we did for Sopel above, just for the heck of it. There have been several iterations of a possible Chi-Tor deal involving Campbell, some involving two players, some involving upwards of six. What is known is this:
- Blackhawks would love to move Campbell’s contract
- Blackhawks would prefer to replace him with a similar player
- Blackhawks believe they can win this year or next & are thus willing to trade for shorter-term contracts
- Leafs will need to figure out a way to sign Tomas Kaberle to an extension if they do not trade him
- Leafs GM Burke has previously stated he would need to replace Kaberle if he traded him
- Leafs will have plenty of cap space (appx $21m) freeing up this offseason
- Leafs want to recoup draft picks wherever possible
- Blackhawks are willing to move their 1st round pick if a good player is coming back in the deal
And there you have the basis of a speculated deal that could work well for both sides. Some iterations of the rumour are the basic Kaberle for Campbell + 1st variety, others are larger (e.g. Kaberle + Exelby for Campbell + 1st, Kaberle + Tlusty for Campbell + Byfuglian + 1st, etc), but all are centred around the basic premise of the teams swapping their respective #1 defenders, with Toronto receiving a high pick in return for picking up the extra contract value.
Of course, before any of this could ever become a reality, the Leafs would have to figure out a way to free up, at a bare minimum, $1.3 million from this season’s cap ($2.9m contract difference – $1.600,000 available cap space), probably more if the deal is larger (or to provide some ‘buffer space’ under the cap). Hence, once more, the talk of a secondary trade.
Which brings us to …
St. Louis
Regular readers will note that St.Louis has long been speculated on this site as a trading partner for the Maple Leafs, and during the past week and a bit it was suggested in the comments for a couple of posts that the Blues could indeed be the “mystery team” involved in the second deal Burke is rumoured to be working on. Earlier tonight, Eklund tweeted something similar about the Leafs and Blues talking, suggesting that people would be surprised who may be available in St. Louis.
Continuing with the hypothesis game, if St. Louis does happen to be the second team as rumoured …
… the question is, would the Blues take on a bit of salary if the players fit their need? It’s possible — the Blues do have a fair bit of available cap space, and are in desperate need of a shake-up. The question is, who might tweak their interest?
Jeff Finger has long been rumoured to be of interest to the Blues (chiefly due to Jackman and Brewer always getting hurt), and they could quite easily absorb his contract. But to give up anything of value the Blues would want picks (a no-go for Tor) or prospects (an option the Leafs would be interested in exploring, pending the possible return). As for supposedly-available Blues’ players … well, let’s just say that T.J. Oshie, Erik Johnson, and Alex Pietrangelo are widely considered to be the only untouchables on the roster.
So, is any of this to say that a deal is definitely in the works, or will even happen, between the Leafs and one or both of these teams?
Absolutely not.
This post is not a declaration of any specific deal being worked upon; rather, it is simply a ‘sorting-out’ of the talk surrounding the base rumour about Brian Burke working on two deals. The bulk of the speculation has those teams as Chicago and St Louis, with no shortage of player names being bandied about. Whether or not anything comes of it is, as in the case of most rumours, ultimately anybody’s guess.
After all, talk is cheap and all the discussions in the world will continue to mean very little until an actual deal is signed on the dotted line.
But you have got to admit, the possibilities sure are intriguing, aren’t they?
Looking forward to your thoughts as always.
garrettbauman@mapleleafshotstove.com
twitter.com/garrettbauman
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:52 am
and i dont care what we do with chicago as long as we get dustin beauflyien thats all that matters. Hes the kind of guy we are missing right now hes a big body to complement some of the skilled guys in front of the net and hes crazy mean along the boards imagine a line like beauflyien kadri and kessel i think that would look a lot like the malone stamkos st.louis line in TB
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:54 am
Woahhh this kab-cambell trade is no good for toronto…..What good would this trade be if were just taking on a massive contract thats goes until the next millenium for basically one of the lowest draft picks in the 1st round not to mention the loss of one of the elite defencemens in the league that comes pretty cheap. I’d rather pursue after the St.Louis deal. This cambell deal is ridiculous.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:57 am
yes campbells contract is crazy but i think theres something we are forgetting CAMPBELL IS ACTUALLY QUITE A GOOD HOCKEY PLAYER but that contract is reallllly long so i dunno if we took campbell for kaberle i wouldnt be horrified because i really feel campbell is a better hockey player than kaberle hes much better defensivly i feel and i think hes on par with kaberle for offensive skill
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:59 am
sorry i mean i wouldnt do kaberle for campbell straigh up but if we got say a beauflyien and a 1st or a prospect like beach then yea i wouldnt be so horrified if we made that trade.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:59 am
yea he is a very good player BUT that massive contract plus what hes getting paidy yearly hes not worth it. What we get for that contract is soo no worth it
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:05 am
the campbell deal could be great for leafs. just depends on who what comes with it. I do believe a deal is on the table to burke but he is holding out for sharp.
you guys are asking for more than any team will pay right now. leafs have no strongarm power.
the leafs need for a number 1 centre is above all else right now. I wouldnt be willing to risk the progression of kadri by bringing up too soon. i know burke has stated before , he treasures sharp. until hes put in the deal with campbell i dont think anyone has to worry.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:08 am
Only_crime: Agreed. Campbell is a good hockey player. He and Kaberle are actually quite comparable. That begs the question, if we resign Kaberle, how much will he want, and for what term? (He’s 31 and and will want a considerable raise I think from his 4.25 / year). If the return with Campbell is good enough, this is something to seriously consider.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:17 am
@Mellow
That’s exactly the basis of the rumour. Kaberle’s next contract is likely his last chance to make elite-level dollars, and his agent will be pushing for exactly that. $6/per is the expectation, but given that he will be 32 when it expires, it won’t be a 10-year deal, so the cap number will be pretty high. In that sense, keeping him will make perhaps a $1m to $1.5m difference per year in future years only, which won’t hamstring the Leafs. Never mind the chance he is lost in free agency for nothing if the team doesn’t start to turn it around. If a prospect such as Beach could be garnered in this type of deal, it may be a worthwhile risk to take. Campbell may not be worth $7m, but as has been mentioned above, he is nevertheless a player on the same level, talent-wise, as Kaberle.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:18 am
Getting Chicago’s 1st pick in a deal is potentially nice in terms of perception, but the reality is that it will equate to a high 2nd round pick the way the Hawks are playing. Now, if the Hawks owned another team ‘s 1st pick, from the middle of the pack, then a trade invovling Campbell may be somewhat enticing, I just hate that contract. The one thing Burke has going for him is expiring contracts and to hamstring yourself going forward just doesn’t make sense.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:21 am
You mentioned Kabs and Campbell are their respective teams #1 defenders. No way is Campbell better than Seabrook or Keith. Sorry, those guys are studs and should make Team Canada. Campbell wont have a sniff at that team. It could be argued Barker is better also. No way do I want Campbell. We’ll be here next year bitching about his outrageous contract and dreaming of ways to get rid of him.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:22 am
When good GMs are making deals there are many other considerations than just stats. I for one feel very strongly that Kaberle’s offensive numbers particularly on the PP are misleading. He plays the first minute and a half of every Leaf PP. He also gets alot of touches on the puck, but alot of them go bad and very few of his assists have been the key pass that leads to a goal. I understand that some may not agree, so I encourage you to do this. Watch Kaberle on the PP. His slow play allows the other team to set up coverage. Even Kessel yelled at him the other night for holding it so long (Thank you Phil!). Kabs is good in his own end, he is good rushing the puck, but he makes me want to turn the channel on the PP.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:23 am
Regardling Chicago’s 1st round pick being a late one and comparable to an early 2nd… agreed.. but it also gives Burke another trading chip to either move up in the draft somehow, or acquiring a prospect in a package deal… this is just a pipe-dream but that 1st + for Filatov? … Okay, not likely to happen, but that 1st is just another piece to the puzzle.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:23 am
…And if I’m trading Kaberle, I want a BIG ticket prospect and a quality young player and some sort of pick in return.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:24 am
The Leafs best defenceman by far is Ian White. Honestly anyone that doesn’t see that can’t be helped. It should never even be debated. Whitey for captain and olympic team!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:24 am
Campbell is lbs4lbs better then Kaberle because he is a lot more physical IMO. His contract does suck but if it were something like:
Campbell+Sharp+1st
FOR
Kaberle
I’m mean really how could you turn that down. If this summer we were to extend Kaberleat about 6 mil then imagine how good that trade looks. I say doit up because we can’t really keep playing what we have now and sharp would really fill out our top 6
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:26 am
im really not understanding the problem with taking on campbell. the leafs will have lots of room for him for atleast the next three years. with all the kids coming up on entry level deals.
what if campbell was at 5 million ???? EVERY team in league would want him. so an extra 2.1 plus additional players to help now and future. makes sense to me to make that deal. take advantage of the hawks now while we can. there is no other team in league that will give up their number 1 offensive defenseman. PERIOD .
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:26 am
@Julie
No one wants to give up a big ticket prospect for Kaberle. Would you? I have to agree with Doug MacLean, Kaberle’s return is a late first rounder and a roster player over 30.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
@Jordan
Do you really think Chicago wants to trade Sharp right now when they have a legitimate chance to win the Cup this year? I could see a deal like that getting done at the end of the season though.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
If Campbell is going to hinder us(financially) in any way from signing or trading for a superstar 1st liner, then fuck him.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:27 am
mmmmmmmm Beach, Aliu, Lalonde, Bickell, 2010 1st, 2011 1st all sound tasty…
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:28 am
Kaberle for Campbell and a first in a heart beat
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:28 am
If that’s Kabs return, then keep him.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:29 am
Just so every body knows there are not going to be any superstars available to sign so cap space is a mute point for the Leafs.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:32 am
also, i have not read or heard that beach or byfugelin is available. reports that their 1st rounder is available for right deal. but hinges on taking campbell . please remember hawks 1st round better than what we got.
so if it was campbell sharp 1st round . for kaberle and roster player (players) not named white.
DONE DEAL !!!!!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:33 am
@B Leaf
Cap space is never a mute point
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:34 am
Does Campbell have a No Trade Clause?
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:37 am
@B Leaf
True, Kovalchuk, Savard and Marleau could all be off the table by July, but next year Joe Thornton and Martin St. Louis could be available.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:38 am
@ryhon
I believe Campbell does have a NTC.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:42 am
campbell does have a no movement clause. but , he has to know there is a good chance he is asked or told to waive for the big 3 and hossa.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:45 am
Man, Chicago gave him that kind of contract with a NMC? Talk about tying your hands. I mean, I like Campbell, but wtf were they thinking!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:48 am
The terms of his contract alone basically equate to a no-movement clause!
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:51 am
@ingy lol
Although the possibilities of a trade are fun to speculate there are so many intangibles here. Burke has to ask Kabs to waive his NTC (something he said he won’t do), and maybe even more importantly, Campbell has to waive his NMC from a possible cup contender. I’m afraid reality is working against this trade…
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:51 am
campbell contract is basically what got tallon fired. but it didnt tye their hands per say , the hossa deal came after and locked them up there. he hasnt even played 1 game this year. and hawks look awesome without hossa.
hossa is to be back next week. so thats what burke is hoping to use against them . top 3 centres are toews hossa then sharp at 4 million next year. thats an expensive 3rd centre.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:53 am
I would do Kabs for Campbell, Sharp and a 1st in a second. It’s a no brainer to me, but obviously pretty unrealistic.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:54 am
@ryhon
I agree, this is something that is more likely to happen in the summer, if at all.
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:55 am
another thing i forgot to mention was who was fighting to get kaberle.
it has been reported that scotty bowman loves him and wants him bad.
i think kaberle knows his days as a leaf are numbered.
his value is at an all time high.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:12 pm
@BallardCurse
Fair enough, but how does this solve our issues? I mean, if people want to build through the draft on a possible 30th overall pick its pretty ridiculous. I think Kabs should be moved for forwards, not D-men. Give guys like White a chance to make up for Kaby’s loss, unless Chicago gives in and offers a deal we can’t refuse.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
deal we cant refuse is the whole point. right now its just sopel and a pick or prospect is available. thats only short term remedy for hawks. may not even be enough for the year. they still have to worry about next year. that is what burke is trying to push. why bother help the hawks for another defenseman. does nothing for the leafs. if they want help they need to give help.
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Campbell has to give a list of 10 teams he would take a trade to, then Chicago has 45 days to trade him. After that the list can be changed if he wants
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I will be absolutely astounded if Burke (or any GM for that matter) takes on Campbell’s contract for anything less than a King’s ransom. Including Kaberle in this deal would be ludicrous. Chicago management absolutely must move Campbell to sign the other three. Yes, Campbell is a good offensive player, but his trade value is incredibly low due to his contract.
.
The only reason Tallon will push to get any sort of value out of moving him will be to save face. Think about it: he didn’t have to give up anything to get Campbell, and now he’s hooped himself into an atrocious contract that lasts an eternity in the cap world. In other words, he’s f***ed. I’m sure he wouldn’t say this out loud, but I would think he’d be more than happy to move Campbell, along with a first, or a really good prospect for a 17th-round pick in the year 20-never. The other option is keeping Campbell, and not being able to resign one of the three RFA’s.
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Sharp doesn’t play center…neither does Hossa BallardCurse.
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
@ B Leaf
are you a sens fan because you are a goddamn moron. Kaberle isnt good on the powerplay? LOL
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
@ jfj
I don’t rememeber the places I have read it, but I’m pretty sure he can play centre as well.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Lets forget about Chicago, the only way they’ll take Kaberle is if Campbell is coming back to us with a 1st and prospect. St Louis is a better option at the moment. Rest assured, at the deadline we will be able to get a first, prospect, and roster player for Kaberle and Stajan WITHOUT taking a crazy contract. Remeber we’ve got Blake’s and Finger’s contract to worry about ourselves. People talk about 21 million like is an infinite number. We’ve got a number of RFA’s to resign and a couple of UFA’S to resign too, you’d be surprised at how quickly money slips away.
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:35 pm
brent sopel and patrick sharp and 2nd for tomas kaberle jimmy hayes and 3rd
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:26 pm
I think we should keep Tlusty his up side is too much to give up.
November 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
I orginally mentioned Kaberle for Campbell + 1st or Campbell + Sharp a few weeks ago on this site.
A couple weeks later it has become a more commonplace “rumor”… and I have changed my mind.
Kaberle, right now, is worth a 1st plus all on his own. You don’t *have* to take on Campbell’s huge contract to get the big return.
On the other hand, Campbell’s contract is terrible, but he brings some stuff Kaberle has, and he has a little more physical presence.
If they could beef up the deal, like Campbell + 1st + Byfuglien for Kaberle + ? prospect, then it might ne interesting.
Before jumping though, I would definitely want to see what other offers are out there for Kaberle.
Think of it this way… Chicago wants out of that Campbell contract, you can pretty much always make some other deal to get him if you want to later on.
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