How do you define “Opportunity”?

by on December 5, 2009 in Uncategorized - 342 Comments

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After recovering from the initial shock of the Leafs trading yet another highly rated, potentially top end prospect (Tlusty in this case) for picks, prospects (Paradis in this case) or players who at best can be defined as “depth” acquisitions, I decided to sit back, absorb all of the feedback and coverage from this transaction and form an opinion based on rational thought processes and any available factual information.  Past my initial, oh no, here we go again feeling, I was uncertain as to my actual opinion on this deal.  After all, I have never seen the young Paradis play, knew very little about this prospect, and the only information I had available was that he was a late 1st round pick in last years entry draft.  So, I decided to err on the side of caution and keep my initial opinion on this transaction to myself.  After researching this prospect, reading the various scouting reports and watching some film, it became rather apparent that Mr Burke had traded a potential top 6 type of sniper for a 3rd-4th line character guy.  Someone who was physical, had speed, was fearless and could become a real heart and soul leader on an NHL roster one day.  Considering the intangibles this player could potentially bring down the road, I was willing to overlook the obvious imaginary offensive upside Mr Burke was touting with this prospect and the projections of a top 6 “power forward” type in the NHL and was settling in with a comfortable neutral, “Wait and See” decision on this transaction.

However, in listening to Mr Burkes assessment and explanation of this transaction, one thing became quite apparent.  Maple Leafs management, going back some 15 years or more, somehow lack the ability to properly define and utilize a very simple word in the English language.  Mr Burke, a Harvard graduate no less, seems to have forgotten the appropriate usage of the term and is obviously quite baffled as to its meaning and appropriate application – The word is “Opportunity” – and it is a definition Leafs management dearly need to grasp, otherwise, this 40+ year Cup drought is not going to end anytime soon….

Before continuing, I think it is important to actually define Opportunity..

1. a situation or condition favorable for attainment of a goal.
2. a good position, chance, or prospect, as for advancement or success.

We Leaf fans are continually told how our prospects were given every “opportunity” to succeed, and as a result of their inability to succeed with their “opportunities”, the trade of a top prospect from practically zero return is ultimately justified.  Opportunity, as it pertains to an NHL prospect does not involve burying players in the minors and continually adding veterans with heavy contracts in front of them in the depth chart.  Opportunity does not involve giving a player spot duty on an NHL roster, limited to zero minutes, zero tolerance for mistakes, and when mistakes do happen, result in a transplant of a wooden bench into the players ass.  Opportunity does not involve a public flogging just before a demotion to the minors with the prospect fully aware they may never get another opportunity again with the big club, and even if they do, they will not really get a chance.  With the exception of a select few “chosen” ones (99% of the time based on size), the Leafs organization has been completely and utterly dysfunctional with regards to managing and developing their prospects.  Antropov and Ponikarovski for example were given real opportunities (both favourites of mine by the way).  Despite continual set backs, these players were given opportunity after opportunity to succeed, and eventually, the organization was rewarded for their patience and development.  Luke Schenn is another good example of how opportunity has been given to certain players and how prospects should in fact be handled.  He was not benched at the first sign of trouble.  There was no public flogging of Luke Schenn, no trips to the press box, no demotions to the minors.  Luke Schenn was and is being developed properly.  He was coached through his issues, he had his responsibilities slightly reduced, asked to simplify his game, put into positions to succeed and slowly built back up to a point when he can take on more responsibilities.  This is what opportunity means.

What Mr Burke refers to as “continual opportunities” for a player like Tlusty is something else entirely, and is exactly the root cause of our inability to develop top end prospects and the continual pattern of watching our top end prospects go to other organizations and thrive.  It is actually getting to a point of complete absurdity where top end prospects simply cannot wait to get into another system so that they have a chance and get a real opportunity in the NHL.  There are literally 100′s of examples of NHL players who did not develop into the front line talent they ultimately became until playing 2 or 3 or even more seasons of pro hockey.  Very few players step into the NHL and become stars.  Many front line players took time to reach those levels – and they only get there with “opportunity”.   People should spend some time listening to Mr Hollands analysis of talent.  Listening to Mr Holland explain why he salvaged a player like Jeremy Williams off of the MLSE prospect junk pile – and ultimately come to understand how good, sustainable organizations identify talent and develop talent.

The typical Leaf prospect will receive the Ian White treatment.  The kid had to sit in the press box to start last season.  Then he needed to go in as a forward, he needed to succeed at that position, and then he was given a real opportunity?  the kid is likely our best overall defenseman today.  Was a force in junior, was a force in the AHL and short of an absolute miracle, would have been disposed of for absolutely nothing.  It is not reasonable to expect a prospect to succeed under this definition of “opportunity”.  Another current example of a player defying the odds is Kulemin.  Scores 15 goals in his rookie season last year.  Starts this season as a healthy scratch.  When he does get an “opportunity”, it is 3rd and 4th line minutes.  In order to simply stay alive on the roster, he has needed to produce with zero opportunity.  He has more goals then Blake and Grabovski and 1 less goal then Stempniak while playing significantly less minutes, significantly less games, practically zero power play time and while being asked to take on a defensive role.  Yet, here he is, buried behind veterans with expensive contracts and buried in the depth chart behind prospects brought in by the new regime who have yet to demonstrate a fraction of what he has already proven – again, with no real opportunity presented to him.

I often take some abuse in the comments section because of my focus on the past.  Unfortunately, as far as the Maple Leafs go, history is continually repeating itself.  Fans would do well to understand our past and understand how and why our franchise got to the point it is now.  The new regime is currently doing EXACTLY what previous new regimes did.  They are expunging the organization of the inherited prospects so that they can instill their own.  This is a never ending, vicious cycle, as the average lifespan of a regime does not allow for a cleaning of house and starting again, as by the time the new regime comes in, the previous regimes prospects are just about ready.  Dismissing them and replacing them with your own will just perpetuate this process.  This process is easily recognizable.  Mr Fletcher traded Doug Gilmour for a package that included Steve Sullivan and Jason Smith.  He passed on other assets such as Modin, Markov, etc..  Mr Quinn took over the organization and summarily dismissed 90% or more of the assets he inherited in favour of his own (how is an organization going to be successful if they lose their star assets for zero return?  it happened with the Gilmour trade, as the new regime simply disposed of the return and it happened again with Sundin with the entire no trade clause fiasco).  Mr Burke takes over from the previous regime, and the first thing he does – expunges the organization of the inherited prospects?  The real crime here is the justification down the road when these kids are successful someplace else and with real “opportunity”.  I simply cannot get over how management teams in Toronto can sell these moves to the public and how on earth the public buys these explanations.  Rather then admit that a trade was a mistake, or that the Leafs development system obviously failed with whatever specific player, or that the current management simply does not like this specific player, the most common excuse used by management is, “Hey, its not our fault, this player simply could not play in Toronto” – thereby absolving themselves of any blame while simultaneously indicating that the player was the issue and certainly not the organization or the management team or their development process.

Sorry Mr Burke, I for one am no longer buying the propaganda.  If you want to expunge your organization of inherited prospects, then simply admit that.  There is absolutely no need to further insult a player that your organization has stifled in the development process.  You have after all taken actions which pretty clearly indicate you plan on breaking this cycle (actually, quite an impressive game plan if one takes the time to think about it).  I would wager that you are fully aware of this cycle based on the moves you have completed.  Acquiring older prospects like Bozak, Hanson and Gustavsson who are all NHL ready or very close to it.  Acquiring a player like Kessel who is a young, obviously NHL ready sniper in exchange for draft picks that are unlikely to be in the NHL by the time your replacement is named if you are not more immediately successful, inherited assets are only maintained if they are proven NHL players or very close to being NHL ready while you still maintain contractual flexibility with them (ie Stalberg, Gunnarsson, Kulemin, Grabovski).  All of the moves are completely indicative of your understanding of an NHL management teams lifecycle.  I do have hope that your approach will ultimately be successful and will break the cycle here in Toronto.  You have placed any chance of success and your future in Toronto ultimately in the hands of players like Bozak, Gustavsson, Hanson, Stalberg and Gunnarsson.  What I do not understand is why you chose to expunge so many inherited prospects with high end potential rather then actually giving them a legitimate and real opportunity first?  Hopefully, if Tlusty pans out as many (including myself) are predicting, you will not hide behind the “could not play in the Toronto spot light” mantra.  This is a kid who was the captain on his national team as a child.  He has had the weight of his entire town and country on his shoulders in a town and country where he was a star with massive expectations, wrapped around political tension and turmoil dropped on his shoulders at 16 years old or younger.  This kid just needed an opportunity Mr Burke.  And hopefully, when he gets that opportunity and if he is able to succeed, you will be capable of admitting that he succeeded because of the opportunity he was given by another organization, and not try and take away from his accomplishments by trying to fabricate a personality flaw to justify his lack of development in Toronto.   It is not an issue to give up on prospects or decide you want to go in a different direction, however, it is not appropriate to claim a prospect has received “Repeated Opportunities” and failed – when that is clearly and obviously not the case…

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  • CarltontheBear

    @Conn Smythe

    I would imagine the restrictive part Andrew was referring to is the NTC…the NTC Kaberle invoked that cost us Carter and a 1st

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  • Conn Smythe

    Stralman is 18th in the league in scoring for d – man. Ian White has 2 less points than he does in one less game (and White’s a plus 6).

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  • http://none Armchair GM
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  • http://cartika.com Andrew R
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  • http://cartika.com Andrew R
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  • kb

    @Andrew R

    Again….whether or not Stralman could cut the mustard in TO, he:

    A) was out of options – he had to pass thru waivers to be demoted;
    B) reportedly let BB know that he would leave and go back to Sweden if he wasn’t played full time;
    C) had a hissy fit last year when sent down and took his time in reporting a few short km’s down the road, plus;
    D) RW and BB would have lost all credibility within the dressing room if you reward this type of behaviour from a player who didn’t make the team. Do you really think that wouldn’t have affected the team and the dressing room if Stralman was rewarded by playing full-time after that?

    Please answer those points first before anything else. I have brought up those points time and again, but you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge those issues. If you were truly a knowledgeable hockey observer, you would have considered those issues prior to complaining over his departure, plus you would have realized that Stralman’s departure was necessary to send a message that this type of garbage will not be tolerated. It may or may not have been a great trade, but it was a trade that had to be made.

    Whether or not Jordan said Stralman was “shit” is a moot point, and is his prerogative – he expressed his opinion based on what he saw. Nothing wrong with that, and his assessment is equally as informed and valid as yours. Jordan watched Columbus and formulated his opinion based play of the player, while it is obvious you have only chosen to evaluate the stats.

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  • kb

    @ionsys, Armchair

    Exactly – Bravo. Nice posts…you guys went where I was going to go with regards to comparing relative successes in different hockey markets – numbers and play cannot be compared as simply as “he did well there, he would have done the exact same thing here”. My post was long enough already, and likely would have been irrelevant to Andrew anyway since he has been unable to answer the simple things I’ve been asking him to answer.

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  • http://cartika.com Andrew R
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  • HHT

    @ Conn Smythe:
    And White is a Plus 6 on a worse than shit hockey team :)

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  • kb

    @Andrew,

    My points aren’t the least bit presumptive. This was all reported in the media. But let’s say for argument’s sake that they are all media fabrications. That still does not change the fact that you are being forced to play someone who did not played well enough to earn a spot on the team – but they have to play because they can be lost for nothing on waivers (Tlusty, Stralman). You can’t just hand them the role they were drafted for – that is entitlement at it’s finest….just hang around long enough without really showing anything, and you will still get your chance anyway. Do you think the Leafs were keeping these guys back even though they could help the team now – or in the future? For better and for worse, welcome to the wonderful new world of the CBA….you have a relatively small window to show what you can do, and if you haven’t shown enough to justify being kept by the time you can be lost on waivers – you have to be moved for other assets.

    And in response to “happening a lot”….BB has moved exactly 3 prospects out – but only after keeping them for as long as he possibly could for evaluation. He didn’t jump all over them to move them at the first opportunity, it was almost 8 months before he moved Stralman. He could have moved him right away, but he evaluated what he had, and didn’t see a fit moving forward.

    Using Montreal hurts your cause – this is the same team that traded a high end prospect (McDonagh) as part of a package for an absolute salary dump in Gomez. We essentially got a 2nd round pick and Wayne Primeau for Stralman, a nice return unless of course you feel that Colin Stuart will be a difference maker for Calgary.

    What you aren’t getting is that the onus is still on the player to make the team believe there is a role for them in the future. If you get ice time – no matter how short – the onus is on you to show something…anything. Ben Ondrus sticks around the organization because BB sees the character this kid has. The onus was on him to prove his worth, and the same thing with Ian White. Why coddle your young kids – in today’s CBA world the the player has to put up and shut up. Work hard, show improvement, and you will get your chance.

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  • http://cartika.com Andrew R

    @HHT – no one is disputing the value of Ian White. 2 years ago, when people were ready to run him out of town, I was also petitioning for the kid to get a real opportunity before we lost another one.. I am assuming you were one of the few clamoring for him to be maintained 2 years ago correct?

    @kb – sorry man, we disagree.. and no matter how hard you try to convince me of your perspective, I simply do not agree with you. I would dissect all of your points, but, honestly, at this point, it is safe to say we disagree and neither of us will come around to the other persons position..

    The only point I will comment on is this. I do agree that players need to earn opportunities. But, I also understand that players need proper opportunities. Each player is drafted with a specific role in mind. You do not ask a fighter to score 30 goals in order to stick, and you do not ask a sniper to fight the other teams enforcer in order to stick. You need to put prospects in proper positions and proper opportunities in order to succeed relative to their actual skill sets… This does not only hold true at the NHL level. I strongly suggest you take some time and listen to people like Mr Holland speak. Another excellent person to listen to is JFJ – who is very well spoken and very well respected on this topic (obviously many fans in Toronto hate JFJ so, I guess you would not consider him a credible source, but, I assure you, outside of the internet fan and media mob in Toronto, JFJ is a very well respected hockey mind)

    Again, there is a reason Toronto has not won in 40 years and there is a reason the Leafs, with very very few exceptions, have not been able to develop and build their own talent.. my blog was one perspective and opinion on why this has occurred and continues to occur. I am hopeful that Mr Burke will correct this trend …

    thanks again for the wonderful comments and feedback…

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  • kb

    @Andrew

    It is ironic really because we do actually agree on one point. That is, you have to develop your youth, and I agreed on your other blog that it is time to play the youth. Again, you cannot just hand someone a role they didn’t play hard enough or well enough to earn. Does it not become obvious that the onus is on the player to make an impression? It’s not a terribly difficult concept to grasp, nor is it the wrong way to develop prospects. Sorry to burst your bubble, but that is exactly what Holland does – for example, Datsyuk started by playing on the 4th line getting limited minutes. In fact, almost every player brought up in that organization started out in a 4th line role….

    And which new prospects brought in by the new regime was Kulemin buried behind at the beginning of the year? The only rookie or prospect who started the year was Stalberg, who was not one of BB’s guys. Incorrect for sure. I really take issue with the many fallacies and fantasies you keep portraying as reality.

    Prospects have to make a positive impression by working hard shift in and shift out when they get any opportunity, plus show signs of maturity and improvement. Tlusty had not. Nor had Stralman or Pogge. Therefore, they were deemed expendable. If you have to coddle them or hand them undeserved opportunities for them to show any potential, you don’t want them on your team – simple as that.

    Your blog is one huge paint brush, painting the Leafs last 40 years of developing prospects, yet you should realize that you can only hold the present regime responsible for their own tenure – they cannot undo the deeds of the past.

    We’ll agree to disagree….

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