Playing Great of Late (Minus the Eight)

Just wanted to share a fantastic bit of work done by Nights, one of our many enthusiastic and intelligent readers, who evaluated how the NHL landscape would look without the first 8 games of the season during which the Maple Leafs struggled mightily. Great work!

The following calculations and conclusions were done entirely by Nights:

WEST OVR Team GP W L OT Pts Change (Standings)
1 1 Los Angeles Kings 26 17 6 3 37 -
2 3 San Jose Sharks 26 15 5 6 36 -(Due to divisions, still 4th)
3 5 Nashville Predators 24 16 6 2 34 +5(+4 without divisions)
4 7 Calgary Flames 23 14 6 3 31 -1(-2 without divisions)
5 8 Vancouver Canucks 24 15 9 0 30 +5
6 9 Chicago Blackhawks 22 14 6 2 30 -3
7 10 Minnesota Wild 24 14 8 2 30 +6
8 12 Detroit Red Wings 24 13 8 3 29 +1
9 13 Colorado Avalanche 26 12 9 5 29 -4
10 14 Dallas Stars 24 11 6 7 29 -2
11 15 Pheonix Coyotes 24 13 9 2 28 -5
T-12 T-23 Anaheim Ducks 24 9 9 6 24 +3(+2 if CBJ has the tie breaker)
T-12 T-23 Columbus Blue Jackets 24 9 9 6 24 -0(-1 if ANA has tie breaker)
14 25 Edmonton Oilers 24 10 11 3 23 -3
15 27 St-Louis Blues 22 9 9 4 22 -1

EAS OVR Team GP W L OT Pts Change
1 2 Washington Capitals 25 16 5 4 36 -
2 4 New Jersey Devils 23 17 5 1 35 -
3 6 Pittsburgh Penguins 25 15 9 1 31 -(Due to divisions : Boston would be 3rd)
4 11 Boston Bruins 23 12 5 6 30 -(See above)
5 16 Montréal Canadiens 25 13 10 2 28 +3
6 17 Toronto Maple Leafs 24 11 7 6 28 +8
7 18 Buffalo Sabres 22 13 8 1 27 -4
8 19 Atlanta Thrashers 22 12 8 2 26 -1
9 20 New York Islanders 24 11 9 4 26 +1
10 21 Florida Panthers 25 10 9 6 26 +1
11 22 Ottawa Senators 23 11 9 3 25 -5
12 26 Tampa Bay Lightning 23 8 8 7 23 +3
13 28 Philadelphia Flyers 22 8 14 0 16 -
14 29 New York Rangers 23 7 15 1 15 -2
15 30 Carolina Hurricanes 24 5 15 4 14 -

Essentials : Leafs are tied for 5th (they have 1 game in hand… but less wins, so 6th) in the East
Leafs are the highest + in their conference (+8) and the league (+11 overall)(conference wise. I think Minny has thew highest jump overall… although it looks like it, they are tied with MON… so around T-20tt right now to 10th… less then T-28th to 17th)
They are now tied for 17th with a game in hand on Montreal.

Great work. Another testament to the fantastic readers we have here at MLHS that truly helps foster an environment for intelligent hockey discussion.

alex.tran@mapleleafshostove.com

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  • Neverlosehope

    Spayde wrote:

    Neverlosehope wrote:
    Touching on this other matter, even IF the Leafs continue to play at the same pace as they have for the last 24 games (since the 0-7-1 start) they would end up with 87pts. which most likely leave them out of a playoff spot (probably 11-12th) by about 3-5 pts.
    Not necessarily, I will trust your numbers that we would end up with 87pts. However, if the rest of the teams ahead of us continue their pace, they would not reach the 90pt mark either. Take the last 10 games as a snapshot. Only Atlanta and the top 5 teams are playing above 500. I think the parity might be at an all time high this year. Leaving slots 7-16 in and around the 82-90 point mark.

    I was going to mention that in the post but it was gettintg rather lengthy. Couldn’t agree more, that parity (or shall we say “mediocrity”) has never been greater, and that is why I said that 87pts. would leave them 3-5pts, because 90pts would normally not get you into the dance (I think it was 93pts last year) but without really bad teams like the NYI, TB and COL of last year, the cut off point will almost certainly drop, but having said that, with the increase in three point games (see earlier thread) not sure it will drop below 88-90pts. That would be unrealistic. However, having said all that, they will probably finish 9th and leave us high and dry on the last day of the year. It would be great if the last game of the year was to decide who gets into the playoffs and the Leafs win with a last minute goal by Grabonski, or better yet, Komisarek’s 1st and only goal of the year! Can you imagine how sweet that would be (their last game is at the Bell Centre).

  • honesthockey

    Tim Horton wrote:

    @ honesthockey:
    i’m not positive but A team can exceed the cap by 7.5% to pay bonuses, but its salary cap for the following season will be reduced by the excessive amount. So it sounds like the bonuses not paid just don’t go against the cap the next year. Plus if at any time during the year a player becomes intelligible for his bonus it comes off his cap hit … so, say if Bozak does have a “make the rookie All star team bonus” and he does not, his cap hit will go down from what I understand.

    Thanks TH. Still a tough one to assess. Let’s say a Bozak is re-called then with the 7.5% overage the team still comes under the salary cap. If his bonuses are not reached the number is applied to next season making the overall cap hit using rounded numbers lets say 58 mil from 56 mil of allowable space?

  • IBleaf

    Go Boston, Go Florida, Go Buffalo!!!!!! And of course Go LEAFS Go!!!!

    WWooooooo!!! Whens Gusto coming back!!

  • Neverlosehope

    luke wrote:

    Tim Horton wrote:
    @ Potsy:
    that is not really an excuse for playing .500 hockey when a good portion of your team is supposed to be “NHL ready” don’t get me wrong The frat pack is playing pretty well tho.
    It certainly does raise some questions..Has anyone (Jordan?) been watching the Marlies games? What’s the prognosis?

    Although I have not been watching any Marlies games, the prognosis is that our system is not as deep as everyone would like to optimistically think, and we are especially weak on D and in net. We just traded our best offensive weapon (Tlusty) so you can imagine they are not exactly expected to compete for the Calder Cup, although many on here thought the “frat pack” would be lighting it up in the “A”, the reality is they are not, and that is why it is good they are playing there, so they can gradually improve their game as is done in most cases.

  • Neverlosehope

    Tim Horton wrote:

    @ Neverlosehope:
    I agree with you but I ment I can name at least 5 players on the team that some fans want to be called up i’m assuming that means fans think are “NHL ready” or capable, not that I do.

    Now that Tlusty was traded, I can only think of three: Bozak, Stalberg and Hanson. Who are the other two? (I hope another one is not Rosehill, I mean the guy cleared waivers, didn’t he?)

  • luke

    Interesting. Under TSN’s ‘Power Rankings’, as of December 5th, we were ranked 29th in the league, though we went 5-2-2 over that period. Their reasoning includes the powerplay being 0-for-11 over four games, and subpar goaltending.

    http://tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?ID=549

    I’m curious as to where we’re ranked now…

  • Edward Flannery

    Whats going on, why are we debating calling up people now?
    You’ve murdered my horse and wont stop beating it.

  • acedanger

    I sure hope the Monster will finally get his chance. Other then winning in the SEL, this guy has had nothing but bad things happen to him: His mother dies not too long after his father, he comes to Toronto where he knows only Wallin (who I think they signed because of Gustavsson) he plays lights out hockey in the first two opportunities he gets and looks like he’ll take the no1 spot and his heart messes up. Then when he’s ready to play again he gets a groin pull most likely due to the incision from the surgery, out for another week or so. Just when everything looks great again he’s playing great hockey in the first period against Montreal and yet again, another heart setback. How much bad luck can one guy have? I don’t want to be alarmist but our future rests with this guy. Toskala’s gone at the deadline, there’s no prospects in the system and there are no good FA goalies available this summer so the Monster is it, let’s hope for all our sakes he plays like one.

  • luke

    @ Ace
    I think that’s why people tend to bring up a JSG trade..
    Not sure it’s a good idea, but what is a better option?

  • acedanger

    @luke

    Please no JSG, please!

  • mapleleafsforever

    This is a fun idea… but you should probably also remove every other team’s worst 8-game stretch if you want a fair evaluation.

    Just because the Leafs’ worst stretch of hockey occurred at the beginning of the season doesn’t mean it can be discounted, notwithstanding the play of other teams.

  • ajmor13

    *TRADE Question*

    Garrett (or anyone), have you heard any rumblings about what Burke has offered Phoenix for Mueller?

    I’ve read Burke wants him, but the Coyotes haven’t accepted any of the packages he’s offered yet, any idea who he has been offering?

    TFP reported they are looking for a veteran defense and top six forward, surely we have some combination that could suit their needs?

    Just wondering, thanks for any insight.

  • Neverlosehope

    acedanger wrote:

    @luke
    Please no JSG, please!

    Thank you acedanger, NO JSG!

    Luke, still waiting for those other “two” Marlies….

    @ Edward

    We’re not debating… it is a moot point… some just want to pick on the remains of the carcass.

    Too lazy to go and look, who are we playing tonight?

  • ingy56

    ajmor13 wrote:

    *TRADE Question*
    Garrett (or anyone), have you heard any rumblings about what Burke has offered Phoenix for Mueller?
    I’ve read Burke wants him, but the Coyotes haven’t accepted any of the packages he’s offered yet, any idea who he has been offering?
    TFP reported they are looking for a veteran defense and top six forward, surely we have some combination that could suit their needs?
    Just wondering, thanks for any insight.

    I’m pretty sure Tlusty was part of whatever Burke was offering for Mueller.

  • luke

    @ NLH – It wasn’t me that said we had 5 NHL ready guys on the Marlies!

  • Nights

    luke wrote:

    Unless my math has failed me (see: Stajan pts), a win tonight, combined with NYI, NYR, and PHI losses will result in:
    9. FLA
    10. TOR
    10. NYI
    10. TB
    13. NYR
    14. PHI
    15. CAR
    …not too shabby, all things considered..

    IF BOS > PHI
    FLA > NYI (or other way around… flip both)
    ATL > NYR
    And of course, a Leafs win, that should look like the final standings tommorow morning, yes. But if the Leafs don’t win, those losses for the others mean nothing more then another chance.

    Scooter wrote:

    If you want to compare apples to apples, take the worst 8 game stretch away from all the teams and see where we compare. I bet we would be a lot lower that 6th in the conference and 17th in the league. Our worst 8 game stretch just happened to be at the start of the season. Don’t get me wrong the team has been playing much better of late, but has a long way to go to be competitive with the best teams in the league (although we do seem to have Washington’s number). All teams have bad stretches in the season, some just worse than others.

    Look, we could do that. The difference would be marginal. Why? How many teams have only 1 point in a 16 point (8 games) span? The Leafs have the worst streak in the whole league in that departement (I think), so the leafs still GAIN from an analysis like that.

    It wouldn’t, however, produce significant evidence of the level of play the Leafs have been playing since that streak. It would simply be a more “losing streak friendly” standing.

    @Neverlosehope

    Sorry if I ask… but would you mind sharing the math with me? I just want to see the basis of the whole thing, to compare it with the ones from the other teams to see if that would indeed translate to playoffs (in this theoretical state of evaluation).

    Also, over those standings, the leafs would still be around that location (6th) due to the fact that the earlier math is a pace for the last 24 games. So the paces would continue, and the leafs, because of their game in hand, would likely beat out the Canadiens.

    As for the 87 points, I think you added the PT/Game of this standing and extrapolated it for 74 games, adding our 1 point we already had…

    I could do the math for every team with those numbers, but that’s all pace related… we’re just delving into what the Leafs have done in the last 24, which can be split in 2 parts : the 1st 12 and the last 12 (8 wins in 12 games…).

  • Nights

    @ Neverlosehope:

    We’re playing Ottawa tonight, at home I think.

  • Jonez

    Spayde wrote:

    Jonez wrote:
    please tell me how Bozak’s 3.75 million cap hit is chaper than Stajan’s < 2 mill? Or Poni? Or Stempniak?
    Alot of people go on about this here…. Those are bonuses! If someone can actual wrangle up the contract and prove to me that those bonuses are doable I’ll eat my shoe.
    However, for a rookie those bonuses usually equate to 1)top three in rookie scoring, 2) Make the rookie all-star team, 3) Lead team in points
    I don’t know for sure that those bonuses are in Bozak’s contract, although I am confident at this point that he definitely not hit all or any of them if called up today.

    bonuses or not, they still count against the cap, because it’s a possible maximum that he could be paid.

    why do you think Luke Schenn’s cap hit is over 2mill on an 850,000 contract? same with Kulemin, etc.

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