The Poni Debate
On the heels of Saturday night’s rumour from the Hockey Night in Canada Hot Stove panel that the dealing of pending free agents Matt Stajan and Alexei Ponikarovsky is a virtual certainty, TSN’s Darren Dreger has listed the pair as the fourth and fifth most-likely trade candidates this trade deadline (Stajan followed by Ponikarovsky) as Brian Burke seeks to re-equip his club with picks lost or equivalent prospects.
On the topic of the big Ukranian, I sarcastically remarked in the Leafs-Kings game day thread “[Who knows?] that late 2nd round pick we might fetch for Alexei Ponikarovsky might turn out being as good as Alexei Ponikarovsky some day if we’re lucky.” To prove this wasn’t just some uneducated quip, I’ve amassed a list of all players drafted between 45th and 60th overall inclusive of entry drafts 2000-2005, working under the assumptions that the best return on the market will be found in a playoff team or contender (therefore later on in the order) and that the market’s ceiling for a player of Ponikarovsky’s credentials is set in the second round. Here’s that list of 90 players:
2000 – Mathieu Chouinard, Jarret Stoll, Jared Aulin, Gerard Dicaire, Jonas Nordqvist, Sergei Soin, Kris Vernarsky, Shane Endicott, Alexander Tatarinov, Andreas Lilja, Antoine Vermette, Alexander Suglobov, Matt DeMarchi, Vladimir Sapozhnikov, Ivan Huml, Dan Ellis
2001 – Martin Podlesak, Mike Zigomanis, Alexander Polushin, Tuomas Pihlman, Mike Cammalleri, Chris Thorburn, Jaroslav Bednar, Ed Caron, Kiel McLeod, Noah Welch, Jason Pominville, Andrei Medvedev, Jay McClement, Nathan Paetsch, Matt Keith, Victor Uchevato
2002 – Tomas Linhart, David LeNeveu, Alexei Kaigorodov, Alexei Shkotov, Kirill Koltsov, Sergei Anshakov, Anton Kadeykin, Dan Spang, Barry Tallackson, Duncan Keith, Denis Grot, Vladislav Yevseyev, Matthew Stajan, Jiri Hudler, Maxime Daigneault, Adam Henrick
2003 – Dan Fritsche, Matt Carle, Dmitri Chernykh, Shea Weber, Ivan Baranka, Colin McDonald, Corey Crawford, Evgeny Tunik, B.J. Crombeen, Stefan Meyer, Patrick O’Sullivan, John Doherty, Jeremy Colliton, Michal Barinka, Marc-Andre Bernier
2004 – Ryan Garlock, Adam Pineault, Blake Comeau, Dane Byers, Carl Soderberg, Enver Lisin, Bruce Graham, Raymond Sawada, David Booth, Nicklas Grossman, Brandon Dubinsky
2005 – Guillaume Latendresse, Dustin Kohn, Tom Fritsche, Philipp Gogulla, Chad Denny, Dany Roussin, Mason Raymond, Chris Durand, Andrew Kozek, Dan Bertram, Adam McQuaid, Marc Andre Cliche, Matt Kassian, Nate Hagemo, Pier-Olivier Pelletier, T.J. Fast
Players I’d confidently prefer above Alexei Ponikarovsky include: Mike Cammalleri, David Booth, Jason Pominville, Duncan Keith and Shea Weber.
A total of five players out of 90 players (or 5.55 percent) could be considered of greater value to their franchises than Alexei Ponikarovsky – a consistent 20-25 goal scorer for a club that drafted him in the fourth round and developed him into a competent defensive presence with the goal-scoring upside to be a two-way contributor in the supporting cast of a winning team. While Ponikarovsky may not be a game-changer and has come under criticism for not using his weight more aggressively, he’s coachable, possesses great physical tools and is one of few on the current club willing and able to screen an opposition goaltender effectively. He also loves the city, appears to want to be a part of the winning formula and is a considerable developmental success for the organization as a former fourth round draft pick – going against the odds in acquiring a second rounder seems like a case of throwing away a homegrown asset simply because he’s earned a pay raise.
The expiring contract and Ponikarovsky’s worth dollars-wise is going to be the subject of much debate in the coming weeks, but there’s something to be said about how if both sides can hammer something out to the tune of $3-3.99 million, Ponikarovsky is an asset worth keeping on a two or three year contract.
There’s always a certain allurement to a draft pick due to the element of the unknown – technically it’s not impossible, if very unlikely, that the Leafs could turn over a Cammelleri, Pominville, Keith or a Weber. The counter to the argument presented throughout this blog will suggest that the second round pick is not a bad investment return for a fourth rounder who has gone on to serve the club in parts of 7 seasons and contribute more than 100 goals during his tenure, and that it’s time to change the guard and let the developing likes of Christian Hanson and Victor Stalberg assume his playing time. Both, however, have plenty to prove yet – Hanson doesn’t appear to quite have the offensive upside of a Ponikarovsky, and while Stalberg does appear to have more natural offensive talent, he has a while to go before he becomes a consistent NHL scorer.
There also other options in terms of clearing roster space and playing time that make more practical sense than moving a player like Ponikarovsky. We’ve all had to go through the painful process of accepting the fact that Jason Blake will have to play out his contract in Toronto. But Niklas Hagman, despite teasing us with spurts of offensive flair, struggles with consistency and doesn’t have as clearly defined of a role etched within Burke’s mould. If you factor in the fact that Lee Stempniak’s contract is expiring, finding top 9 playing time for a Hanson or Stalberg on the wing next season shouldn’t be an issue even with Ponikarovsky in the fold.
I’m curious as to your thoughts,
alecbrownscombe@mapleleafshotstove.com
January 28th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
@ luke:
He’ll have the summer to bulk up, and he’s feisty enough that I wouldn’t be concerned. If anything he’ll probably enjoy the challenge.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
@Luke
I think he will be. I still struggle with the fact that if he does, he SHOULD NOT be thrown into a top line role. TOR is going to have to get a service power forward to play the top line.
And yes that Anaheim trade would make me a happy guy! Kaberle would replace Neidermyer to some extent, Hagman is a cheap top 6, 25-30 goal scorer for the next 2 seasons and Toronto could even throw in something else of value that Anaheim might be looking for.
Toronto would take Giguere off their hands and significantly reduce their cap troubles and of course maybe even make Bobby Ryan a happy guy with a 5yr 5.4m deal to play in Toronto with Kessel.
It’ll never happen but there are degrees to it that makes sense.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
keon wrote:
Still a risk, we heard a lot of the same things about Toskala. I think he may play the Leafs against the KHL, and if he does they shouldn’t overpay. Also, since when did Burke begin to listen to his advisors? I hope he stays though, I think he has all the tools to be a top flight goaltender.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
@2mins-go back and read your rebuttals-you shifted your argument but thats okay.
.
Gainey has been actively looking for a puck moving D and kaberle has been on his radar in the past-well documented.
.
you’re basing your argument on conjecture- what “you believe Kaberle to be worth” and what “you believe Burke wants” but again you are ignoring that the market spoke already. thats a fact. you are assessing the trade as a fan-not pragmatically.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
daverleafsfan wrote:
Actually this is his 3rd in the O and I am sure he’s still junior age next year so they can’t send him to the AHL. I am also happy we picked him. He has all summer to bulk up a bit.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
@paso
Why should Toronto get another defensive prospect? Keep White and use our assets to improve our desperate and suffering forward corps.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
M9 wrote:
Yea, I know alot of people here don’t like the idea of Giguere in Toronto, but not only do I think it’d be a good idea to pick him up, but to grab Ryan as well…that’s a steal…if only…
I know it’s too good to be true, but dare to dream.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@AndrewR
I’ve been called everything from drunk to completely insane on this site for the same reason…pointing out that BB has made blunder after blunder. So I hear ya on that one. That being said, I am fishing for your opinion. I’ve posted this before, so maybe you have seen it, but I’ll post again and I hope to get you take on it.
As things sit right now, the only cup any Leaf is gonna see in the next 5 years is the one that holds their coffee. We have no picks in the first 2 rounds this year, and no first rounders next year. Sitting in the bottom 5 next year only hands over another lottery pick, and no matter how anyone paints it, it just isn’t a very comfortable place for mangement to be in. Sure we got some young guys with some upside, but none have proven anything at the NHL level. To remain somewhat competeitve, free up some cap space I think the smart thing to do is the following…
Sign Poni and Stajan to 6-6.5 million combined, that gives us Poni-Stajan-Hagman as a solid 3rd line. It’s not truculent but can score. I think the 2nd line is established in house already with Stalberg-Bozak-Kessel. I am a big Rosehill fan, so the 4th line for me next year is Rosehill-Mitchell-Hanson. That leaves the first line. The reason being I would like to see Kadri play a year with the Marlies and earn his ticket to the big club. Kulemin is playing great this year. He’s gonna be a very reliable 2 way winger who can forecheck, has some speed, reliable defensively and has some potential to score some goals. So in my mind, that leaves us needing a first line center and a LW/RW to play alongside Kulemin on the first line. BB has got to treat this lineup as if Blake and Finger aren’t on it. Dump them in the minors, buy-out, whatever. I think he should take 2 of 3 out of Kabs, Komi, Beauch along with a prospect to aquire a first line C/LW, then, use free agency to complete the top line and solidify our goaltending issues. This way we can evaluate our youth, have secondary scoring and a more consistent goaltending tandem. Grabs isn’t there because I think packaging him with Kabs gives us the best opportunity to aquire a top 3 guy.
FA-FA-Kulemin
Stalberg-Bozak-Kessel
Poni-Stajan-Hagman
Rosehill-Mitchell-Hanson
Schenn-Gunner
White-Beach or Komi
XLB-Blacker/Mikus
Monster/FA
Now, some will argue they don’t want Poni/Stajan on this team. They’re not players that can lead you to the Stanley Cup. Well, I counter with we are nowhere near being cup contenders, we have to compete for 27th place well before we even get a sniff at the playoffs let alone the cup. By doing this, I think we at least remain competitve and not falling over ourselves trying to sign FA’s or tanking next year and handing Boston another lottery pick.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
M9 wrote:
Yup. I don’t even know where he would fit in, unless we want to sit him half the time.
Komisarek, Beauchemin, Schenn, Gunnarsson. That’s our top 4 next year if we do paso’s trade.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
daverleafsfan wrote:
I think I agree with Kadri over Schenn…. so far.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:24 pm
daverleafsfan wrote:
Agree.
btw, Gilmour.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
If we could land Horton *plus* for Grabs(even better a prospect instead) and Kabs,for example, Horton would instantly be on the first line with Kulemin. I don’t know who would be available on the FA to center that line, Maybe Grabs if you can possibly keep him, but I’d like to see a guy who can win faceoffs, dish it and with with a good shot, and who draws opposing players to free up the wingers. As for a Goaltender…no idea who would work there.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
Troy wrote:
If Kadri becomes Gilmour, a lot of our problems are solved. Not sure if everyone heard the story Kipper shared on Hockeycentral yesterday about Gilmour’s first game in his senior league. His first game in he gets suspended for crosschecking a guy in the face on a face-off. Kipper remarks “You can’t take the fight out of the dog”.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Just watched the latest video from bloge salming(fake burke on trial)hillarious check it out funny
January 28th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Paso is Honest Hockey’s 2nd personality. Lonsmos could be his third.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
DJBrianBurke wrote:
Yeah, I did see that. I think it was Killer’s 3rd game though… Kypreos was bragging that he didnt take a penalty the whole time and Dougie got suspended.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
modernhipster wrote:
lol did you go to the strip club after the game? Did Ed make it home? Did he contract a terrible stripper disease that made him lose the ability to type? That would be awful.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
From Andy Strickland:
Word is Toronto forward Matt Stajan would like to stay with the Leafs and would probably accept less money to stay there if Brian Burke gives him that option.
Look for Anaheim to likely buyout the contract of Jean-Sabastian Giguere after the season especially if they are able to come to terms with Goaltender Jonas Hiller on a extension. The two sides continue to have dialogue regarding a Hiller extension.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Charlie wrote:
Now we’ll see if HonestHockey is on line.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
@ Pazuzu:
Yes, you and Andrew R may have called out Burke’s ‘blunder after blunder’ on these boards – which is very easy to do AFTER the fact – anyone can 2nd guess a decision and hindsight is a wonderful thing.
That said, your next year’s line – up looks pretty good – even the resigning of Stajan and Poni. As much as I’d like to see them gone (and not because I think they aren’t good players), without them in our line – up we will be effectively handing Boston another lottery pick. I’m not sure how Stalberg handles 2nd line duty in what would be his 2nd year as a pro, but now is as good a time as ever to find out what we have in him.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
charlie-those are certainly some good points. i love white and poni has proven to be servicable. i have outlined why it’s a good deal in previous posts but in summation
white wants a huge raise-$3m per-cap concern especially when you analyze our D-salary/term and what contracts expire after next yr. dont think burke pays him and he is moved-best return would be a 2nd or mid-level prospect.
poni-will be traded-good asset wont garner more than a 2nd imo-mid level prospect.
kaberle-market spoke-what WE want and what THEY’LL give us for him are different-mid 1st rder-maybe a 3rd maybe a mid level as well.
Subban>way better than a “decent prospect”-star written all over him-if he was ours I’d venture to say we’d deem him untouchable.
mid 1st rd pick-speaks for itself-draft a potential top 6
hamrlik-hardly a stiff with a short term deal. if we are truly ready to bury finger than all the better. can move him at next years deadline for more picks/prospects.
so in essence we get a top 20 pick, a blue chip prospect (our only one in the entire organization) and hamrlik (who isnt brutal-certainly comparable value to komi @ $4.5m) who we then turn for another prospect or pick next deadline-for kaberle who reups huge next yr and two expiring contracts. great deal-it is debatable-”sucks and worst trade ever”-not by a mile.
January 28th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
paso wrote:
I don’t believe in blaming serviceable players within the supporting cast for our misfortunes since the lockout… if you wanna talk culture it was the leadership that was to blame in the form of Tucker, McCabe, and some would argue Sundin. To suggest we will burn out Poni’s value is asinine if you consider the list of late second round draft picks I just compiled suggesting his current value isn’t overly worthwhile either.
As for the suggestion that we just re-sign him in the off-season, it’s nice to hope to get one’s cake and eat it too, and it has happened in other instances although rarely and usually involving veterans edging toward retirement with a history with the club. However, if you want a player, you don’t allow him to enter the market and risk losing him… who knows, maybe he performs admirably for the club he’s traded to and they re-up him with promises of future and further playoff hockey in mind. Take a look at the Kessel scenario for instance, if you want a player (which it seems Burke does not in this case, but for the sake of my argument), you do what it takes to assure you secure him – Burke sacrificed a first that would have been a third should he have risked the offer sheet.
January 28th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
@alec-you answered your own question. the leafs need a leadership core-not another overvalued (see kessel) tertiary player that doesnt fit that need. to tie up $3.5-$4m per for poni, which is what he’ll get (see antropov)is ludicrous…why, so he can score 25 goals per yr for the next 3 yrs while we finish out of the playoffs? so we can have almost $10m per going to poni and kessel? you absolutely do burn out his value by holding onto him as his value is highest now unless he scores 35 next year and when assessing his age and career trajectory that seems unlikely. He’s been on a perennial loser and as such will suffer in terms of his market value because of it (see antropov again). you replenish the cupboard with younger prospects and build a core foundation which even you yourself admitted poni is not a part of. you obviously believe in a retool not rebuild-as you want to put the pressure on the player and not on the organization. its up to genius Burke and his scouting staff to find legitimate talent with draft picks. frankly I dont care how other teams have drafted in the 2nd rd. I can name you jewels found in the 2nd rd and beyond. trade poni.
January 28th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
@ paso:
It would be great to get Subban. I don’t see Mtl. giving up a first (that will be rare throughout the league I think)
I doubt Mtl. needs Kaberle – Markov is better and signed for another year. As I have stated before, you will likely see Kaberle to Pitt for 1st and a prospect like Caputi. That’s it guys, he Kaberle was tougher in his own end (and more competitive) you would obviously get more, but then I wouldn’t want to trade him.
White is RFA – if he gets an offer >2.6M per then the Leafs get a 1st, 3rd compensation. Burke can play hard ball and sign him for a couple of years at 2.6, if not then take the picks. He has the most character on the team right now but the Leafs don’t have that luxury right now. Hopefully, Schenn or maybe even Kadri can fill that void.
Unless you get a first for Hagman I wouldn’t move him – wait until he is about to go UFA and hope he keeps up the 25-30 goal pace.
You will likely see Stajan, Poni traded. Maybe Mayers for a 4th. Maybe Primeau for a 4th. Stemp resigned at a discount. Hagman stays. Toskala, Exelby and Wallin walk.
RFAs?
Gustavsson, Kulemin, White, Mitchell. Not sure about Mitchell – I would rather see a smart veteran on the 4th line (PK specialist hopefully).
Top priority – proven top line centre, maybe from a team that is having cap trouble?
January 28th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
The Leafs are the only team that would give Poni 4M – sign him in the off season then – no problem.
January 28th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
@ paso:
I was thinking as I was reading all the above posts, it certainly isn’t the ‘worst trade ever’ by the Leafs. God! Tell me the memories aren’t that short here! Courtnall for Kordic. 1st.(Niedermayer) for Kurvers. Getting Clark back with Schneider and sending a bunch of players and a first to NYI The first turns into Luongo.
Oh God. Where’s my meds?
I think it’s an interesting deal but not maybe what either team needs the most at this time. We need help at forward way more than defense. Maybe if Halak was somehow involved. I think the biggest thing is the draft choice. We just have to recoup the picks…
January 28th, 2010 at 8:16 pm
@ rockydundas:
maybe we could see if the leafs can beat the blues
January 28th, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Good to see Justin Pogge getting his confidence back after a Ron Wilson filled piece of shit year, Today Ronnie is once again crying to reporters about doing their job, calls them vultures, what the hell are they supposed to follow Ronnie? A winning streak? A win? A playoff bound team? When Hamilton said they wanted an NHL team, word is Brian Burke said so do we…I agree its not all Ronnie, but he needs to take a page out of Burkes’ latest book, how to shut up and disappear when you haven’t done a dam thing to improve this team. Last year it was all Vesa’s fault, this year Vesa again along with the monster, and the high priced defence Mr. Burke gathered in the off season. So next season when Vesa isn’t here , will it still be his fault Ronnie? Your coaching days have been long surpassed by a new NHL, in short, You Suck! The team hates him, as did the San Jose Team before, Bring in someone to work with the team, not ridicule the players after every game. One more year of Ronnie Hockey, and we lose some more young players like Schenn, the guy is a Keenan wanna-be, problem is he wants his players to play tough, this coming from the biggest whimp that every laced them up, who is going to listen? Move on Burkie, the Ballard train is still rolling!
January 28th, 2010 at 8:43 pm
@ derek:
Hahaha! Dundas or St. Louis? Not sure they’d have a chance at either! LOL!
January 28th, 2010 at 9:19 pm
@ rockydundas:
i was thinking dundas……and your right they would have a hard time…
January 29th, 2010 at 9:34 am
At this point I could care less what happens to Wilson, but I think he is an OK coach. The problem with this team is BURKE! This team is carrying 6 players or more who would barely play in some teams farm system. Vesa Toskala is actually statistically worse than Raycroft was! Rickard Wallin- C’mon man! John Mitchell- nothing more than a third liner on a farm team! Exelby- farm hand. Stempniak- this guy will not make a playoff teams roster (maybe a 13th forward). Primeau wouldn’t crack a playoff team top 12 forwards either. What a disaster.
I said it last off season that by keeping Kaberle around they never really changed the clubhouse atmosphere. Kaberle was Sundinized and continues to go out on the ice with no defensive purpose.
If we held our picks we would be happy right now at the prospect of getting a franchise player. But no Burke has ruined that. This team is the biggest joke in all professional sports right now. Last place bound and no picks for two years- C’mon man! Burke’s trades for Kessel, Exelby, and the signing of Komisarek, Wallin, and Primeau are evidence enough to get this guy out of town before he does more damage. FIRE BURKE!
February 6th, 2010 at 2:32 am
[...] The Poni Debate : Maple Leafs Hot Stove [...]
February 6th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
Public sector tender specialists – ways2win…
Public Sector tendes are open to challenge, you won’t be awarded a contract because they like you, can omly award it on marks, and they can only mark what they can see…
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