Kats Krunch: Phaneuf Regression In Context
In the end, perhaps the player to best describe the trades is … Wayne Primeau?
After all, the former Flame has been through this before.
The surprising deal for all parties involved, smells eerily similar to this one, in which the Leafs pivot was involved:
To San Jose Sharks: Joe Thornton
To Boston Bruins: Marco Sturm, Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau
Only injury prone Sturm is left from the original package.
And here we are full circle, a marquee player traded away for spare parts essentially, done in a clandestine manner.
Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ian White and Jamal Mayers do fill secondary scoring roles for the Flames, however they are short term solutions with specific roles.
Consider, Hagman’s strength emerges from individual skills, with more success doing the work himself and working for his own goals. He follows Alex Burrows and Jordan Staal in this regard, using their hard work pay off.
Matt Stajan offers the Flames another distribution option, missing since days of yore when Craig Conroy mattered in a top-six role. Stajan doesn’t have the high end distribution skills, and if you’ve read my blog before, I’ll take the goal scorer over a playmaker any day of the week. Iginla will get a hard worker in the former second rounder, but he is not likely to be a decent compliment. Iginla is fleet of foot, while Stajan relies on smarts and positioning. He’s also an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.
Aside from the stability of Hagman’s reasonable contract for what he delivers, essentially the gem in the deal is Ian White.
Or is it?
Bob McKenzie compared White to Phaneuf in recent play asking which player is the best in the deal:
Well, it’s all a matter of how you frame the question.
Check out the stats – White has nine goals and 26 points and is plus-1 in 23:47 minutes per game compared to Phaneuf’s 10 goals and 22 points, with a plus-three in 23:14 minutes per game. Check out the tape – while White hasn’t been quite as good in his last 10 games for Toronto, pro scouts will tell you White’s game has been equal to or superior to Phaneuf’s in most every aspect you care to name, offensively or defensively.
But it must be pointed out that White is arguably performing to his absolute maximum right now. He’s at or close to 100 per cent of his potential.
Dion? It’s not even close. There is so much room for growth.
Most pro scouts would suggest Phaneuf is operating in the 50 to 70 per cent range. The question then becomes, will he get there? To 100, or close to it, that is. Or maybe even more importantly, does he really want to get there?
It’s tough to argue pro scouts equating White’s performance to Phaneuf this season. Yet, while White has made headway and emerged into a top-four rearguard in Toronto, keep in mind the circumstances that allowed him to thrive:
Opportunity and ability.
While the assertion of White operating at maximum level compares to the less than 100-percent by Phaneuf, in the end, the question isn’t about how each rearguard is performing now.
Ask a pro scout which player they would rather have in a Championship series, and the answer likely won’t be White.
What matters most moving forward isn’t about how players are performing on a bad team, but who is the better defenseman when the game is on the line; would a coach throw on White, or Phaneuf?
When wingers are bearing down, is White or Phaneuf the bigger threat? The smaller White, with a big heart, or the open-ice hitting threat of neon Dion? Championship teams have game-breakers that create momentum for their clubs.
Much has been made about him dropping off defensively last season. Consider, he suffered through an early season eye injury, with season-long rumors of hip and back problems that finally forced him from the lineup for the final two regular season games. And don’t forget the cracked ribs/sternum in Game 5 against Chicago in last spring’s playoffs, forcing him to miss Game 6.
Oh, that’s in addition to coming off a fractured foot he played with in the 2006 playoffs.
Yet despite that, last season he ranked fourth overall in TOI in 2008-09 (26:31) with all the injury issues, logging over 2,100 total minutes, in 80 games. This season, with the acquisition of Jay Bouwmeester, his ice time has been cut (23:14) with Jay-Bo taking over.
Nice touch by those doing trade analysis of the deal in denouncing the blueliner and his fading game without even glossing over the issues that have contributed to that factor, aside from any locker room concerns.
This upgrade comes at a $6.5 million cap hit. What would Ian White be worth as an RFA, on a second pairing in Toronto?
White was given the opportunity to play as a forward and unlikely not in the Leafs plans at the beginning of last season. After moving back due to injury, the blueliner established himself as a top-four, two-way defenseman. He made critics, myself included, rethink his value to a club and in the NHL. Now, away from the spotlight of TO, contract and performance should be on par.
This is what I wrote about him for McKeen’s for the Yearbook:
Smallish, gritty and mobile rearguard, with a good first pass and maturing offensive instincts, led by a hard point shot .. struggles with sizeable forwards in front of the goal and along the boards, often boxed out resorting to cross-checks and stick fouls as a result .. efficient, smooth skater and puckrusher, but misses hands and some creativity, rather mechanical .. diminutive stature forces him to rely on solid positioning.
Some issues that forced the struggle defensively will be magnified in the tighter Flames system. Not taking away from his work ethic, he’ll fit right in to the type of style, but will fall behind Jay Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr, and Mark Giordano. The opportunity that existed for him in Toronto won’t be readily available and if the play deteriorates into what’s been witnessed in the last 10 games, he could find himself in the press box at least once.
In the end, this trade really does have the same feel of the Bruins and Sharks.
I’m wondering how long it will take someone in the mainstream media to put that one together and finally ask the question to the player himself.
katshockey@mapleleafshotstove.com
twitter.com/@KatsHockey
February 1st, 2010 at 8:49 pm
I thought the same, but only time will tell.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:01 pm
i hope you’re right. IMO, in the long run, toronto wins this trade, but a lot depends on phaneuf getting back on track, and white staying about the same.
also, critics of the trade all talk about phaneuf’s regression, and don’t seem to realize that the leafs got 2 other players in the deal — a fast, defensively responsible forward who’s only 26, was drafted in the 1st round but hasn’t been able to convert offensively, and a prospect who could end up tipping the scales in toronto’s favour — 6’6 d-man described by dreger on the day of the trade as a “future stud” and “the whole package.”
February 1st, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Awesome post!
IF OV is coming full stride one-on-one, who do want on D, DP or Whitey?
case closed.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:28 pm
I don’t see how anyone can seriously compare White to Phaneuf. Dion is the best player in the trade, and the team getting the best player usually wins. Burke surprised a lot of people here.
As many others have suggested, time to move Kaberle. We now have a replacement – a true franchise player!
I take Dion in every situation I can think of over White, and I even like White.
Time to tune into the Flames game.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:29 pm
February 1st, 2010 at 9:31 pm
@kats-listen man, as a leaf fan I truly hope Phaneuf is the next bobby orr and I like this trade. that said,
-it was widely known by Gms that phaneuf was on the market-that is why sutter had to keep denying the rumors-there was nothing clandestine about this other than it was kept from the media
-o’connell only talked to wilson and the sharks-thus the uproar around the league when the deal went down-no such uproar now to my knowledge
-it is widely known why phaneuf was traded-see on and OFF ICE issues-thronton was injured in the playoffs the year before and his heart was erroneously questioned by the bruins brass-very different situations
-not one sane hockey person at the time thought that the bruins got even a sniff of a decent return for thornton-there seems to be some concensus here that sutter didnt just give phaneuf away.
-if white turns out to be a top 4 for the flames @ $3m per for 5 yrs and hagman is a consistent 30 goal scorer for the next 3 @ $3m per thats hardly slim pickens as they say and very good value
-no doubt there is only one potential superstar in this deal and it is phaneuf. the question is-will he be a superstar?
February 1st, 2010 at 9:35 pm
Ahhh. Meant to post this YouTube of Ruutu/Phaneuf…sort of.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v71FqkDMV1c
February 1st, 2010 at 9:48 pm
Hagman isn’t a consistent 30 goal scorer.
He has never hit 30 ever in his career. He is on pace now, once.
It would be a big stretch to assume he will consistently hit 30 for 2 or 3 more years after this.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:49 pm
paso wrote:
Source?
Seriously, a factual statement that several other GMs knew he was available … you’re going to have to source that one.
Especially considering not one analyst expected Phaneuf to be dealt. Kept from the media? It’s a rare day a guy is traded who the analysts did NOT have a sense was available.
So please, since you are more than likely NOT an NHL GM yourself, we would all appreciate it if you could source that comment.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:51 pm
“The Flames needed some scoring and some salary cap flexibility, among the many problems on their troubled team. They also needed, according to Alberta sources, to break up a dressing room rift between Phaneuf’s faction and that of Robyn Regehr. In the end, Sutter sided with Regehr rather than with Phaneuf.”
-http://www.torontosun.com/sports/hockey/2010/02/01/12700576.html
February 1st, 2010 at 9:59 pm
watching the flames game they are bigging up stajan like he’s a bonafide #1 center comments like now iginla has a set up man great intelgent player and strong going to the net lololol dont get me wrong i didnt mind him but hes the messiah to the flsmes all of sudden
February 1st, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Oh, man do I hope this turns out as one-sided as that Thornton trade. I think the reality is probably a little more complicated than that in a salary-cap league, but it is possible – from a purely hockey standpoint – that this trade could go that way.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:03 pm
veloso24 wrote:
yeah, i’ve got it on too, they’ve overrating their new players. also, ian white had a giveaway on his very first shift, and it went completely unnoticed.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:06 pm
gerard-not one analyst expected phaneuf to be dealt? even the farcical eklund knew the guy was on the block.
-read lebrun on espn, garrioch in the ottawa sun, the flames beat writers,the fact that it’s been widely reported by several other outlets over the last few months and its been widely reported that the rangers tabled an offer. I guess I take for granted that people actually read.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:08 pm
@ brokensilence:
lol backhand behind the net…just funny how ppl shit on phaneuf because he’s a leaf now… if he went to washington, everywould would jizz their pants praising it
February 1st, 2010 at 10:09 pm
@danvertising-referring to people actually reading…read the post again-”if white turns out to be a top 4 for the flames @ $3m per for 5 yrs and hagman is a consistent 30 goal scorer for the next 3 @ $3m per thats hardly slim pickens as they say and very good value. thanks
February 1st, 2010 at 10:15 pm
It is still a big IF. It is more likely Phaneuf returns to a 50+ point defenceman.
Leafs win this trade no matter what.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:23 pm
@ danvertising:
No matter what is a VERY broad statement.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:27 pm
@paso
There is at least a decent chance that Aulie could turn out to be as good or better than White…..he was – after all – half of a shutdown D tandem on Canada’s gold medal winning junior team…why not factor that in, or are you ignoring that part of the trade because that further weakens your position?
You might wanna consider the whole return for the Leafs too. Or does that not count in your mind?
February 1st, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Ducks shut out Panthers 3-0…If we want ANY chance of finishing 8th we need the West to clean up every game they play against borderline Eastern teams
Blake, 14 minutes and 2 shots on goal…yup, sounds like the same Blake I watched all season, got the work ethic, but I can just picture him circling Vokoun and losing the puck…
February 1st, 2010 at 10:29 pm
I was just watching a video on TSN and they mention that Phaneuf is now the face of the franchise. I truly believe he is now. I mean when you mentioned Toronto you’d normally think of Sundin. Now though if Phaneuf is anywhere near the player everyone knows he can be then when you mention Toronto Maple Leafs everyone will think of Dion Phaneuf.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:33 pm
I’d rather have White vs. Ovie than Phaneuf. Because White will contain, separate man from puck, and if necessary give the best second effort possible. What will Phaneuf do? Something stupid. That said, Phaneuf is better offensively, despite not necessarily having the same hockey IQ that White has.
It’s like asking who would you rather have vs Ovie if you were Pittsburg last year, Gonchar or Scuderi? Obviously, you want Scuderi.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:40 pm
@lescott
Is that because you’ve seen Phaneuf every single game – game in, game out for the last 4.5 seasons?
Agree that White has decent hockey IQ, but how many giveaways did White have that led to goals against Jersey? That is his glaring weakness….
White has always had problems over the years playing against bigger skilled players….they can keep the puck away from him.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:49 pm
It takes an absolute perfect storm of factors for a player of this talent to become available on the open market: possible locker room issues, a disappointing season(s), floundering franchise, money/cap issues, and pressure from the fanbase. And even then, those stars are often on the decline, not 24 years old with a tremendous future in front of them.
The chance to trade for a franchise calibre talent comes along only once every few years, and the fact that we landed one without any premium young assets or draft picks heading back the other way is astounding. Not to mention that we actually got a quality prospect back.
The magnitude of the impact that this trade will have on this city over the next 10-15 years is going to be tremendous.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:52 pm
kb-read my post for goodness sake. I said I like the trade. I was adressing a few points in this blog-”a marquee player traded away for spare parts”-the blogger trying to compare this deal to the Thornton deal-which isn’t correct imo. It’s so funny that for months people were singing the praises of Hagman and White-and now they are spare parts in this deal. thats laughable.
.
and by the way I dont need to ignore the facts to strengthen my position, ironically something you just foolishly did by misrepresenting what I posted, I can make an argument based on the facts which is what I did.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:54 pm
Yeah Kb, but typically they end up keeping the puck away from White in the corner, where they are contained…
I’m not glazing over his last ten games, but clearly those ten games were an abherration and not the norm.
I understand that he does give the puck away at times but I think that’s part of his game that will improve with time.
I am not saying that I would rather have White than Phaneuf, but I am all for calling an apple an apple, and not mistaking overall potential for specific strengths. Remember that White and Schenn, or White and Beauch were typically our shut down guys, and until the abheration that was the last few games White had an outstanding +/-. Phaneuf was on a better team and Boumeester and Giordano were the shutdown guys. So he should have far better stats than White, but that is not the case. Phaneuf, may grow into a great defenseman, but right now he is only a very good one, and that because of his hitting and offense, not because of his defensive reliability.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:57 pm
Alex Tran wrote:
Oh my God, I couldn’t agree more.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:16 am
paso wrote:
Paso – meant clandestine as in, there was never any word that the Leafs were looking at Phaneuf, not that he wasn’t on the market.
Don’t care about uproar caused by Thornton deal, that’s not the point .. and that goes for the reasons why he was dealt too .. again, not the point.
I guess it all comes down to this statement:
“a marquee player traded away for spare parts”-
I stand by that. No doubt, Niklas Hagman could be the jewel for the Flames here, with a defensive replacement in White, but in the end, as a package, this entire deal consisted of spare parts for the Leafs that found value to the Flames – and time will tell – but likely won’t have the same impact that Phaneuf does in Toronto just like Thornton’s impact is now down to Sturm in Boston as the lone player left.
Now, you may believe that they have more value than that, but I don’t agree and that’s just a difference of opinion – which i totally encourage.
And please, let’s not lump me in with this:
I’ve never supported White in a long term view, and have been quite critical.
Hagman, tough loss — I was the one who defended Fletcher when he signed him, knowing what the Finn was able to deliver having watched him in Dallas and maybe isn’t exactly a spare part, I guess.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:28 am
most people are shitting on phaneuf beacuse he is now a leaf. Everyone hates the Leafs because we are the center of the hockey universe and rival fans want to see our franchise run into the ground.
Zeisberger was on off the record today and he said that right after Burkes presser announcing we acquired Phaneuf, he talked to a couple Nhl gms and sources saying while the notion that Phaneuf could be avaliable for the right price… Gm’s were scratching their heads for the fact that Calgary let him go for players of white, stajan, hagman and mayers ilk. This is very much like the thornton trade from a few years ago.
Its about time good things happen to the Leafs. Our organization actually has players to build around now…Schenn, Kessel, Kadri and now Phaneuf.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:34 am
ryhon wrote:
Christ…There is no chance we finish 8th…Let it go…It’s all about next year now.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:35 am
stajan, hagman and whitey are viewed as “useful players in this leauge” but would you trade luke schenn for a package of these guys if you were a gm?
Burkie committed some robbery.. because im sure Calgary could have gotten more then we gave them. The whole hockey world is pretty shocked that Toronto acquired Phaneuf, not that he was traded.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:44 am
daverleafsfan wrote:
Total robbery. White is a solid D-man. But that’s it. He will never be a star. I don’t buy that he’s a shut down D-man. Nobody was/is on this team. We’re last in goals against with the worst PK of all time. Hagman is a solid 2nd line winger who hustles an scores in streaks. Neither is an impact player. Mayers is washed up and will have trouble finding employment next year. Who knows where Stajan will end up. If the flames don’t make the playoffs, they will probably let him walk. If that’s the case we gave up Hagman and White for Phaneuf, Aulie and Sjostrom. Fucking wow.
February 2nd, 2010 at 1:14 am
I don’t want to blow up even more hype on the Phaneauf train but I think we might finally have our captain.
It doesn’t appear it will be Schenn as many of us first thought. Definitely cant see Kessel. In the end I think Dion will don the C at some point.
February 2nd, 2010 at 1:26 am
Jes wrote:
Nope it’ll prob be Beauchemin OR Komi, Schenn will get the “A” then when they leave He will wear the C most likely, Burke even said at the draft “They wanted Schenn, but that ain’t gonna happen this kid will be our captain in a couple years”, Or something like that along those lines anyways, but Dion will effinitly get an “A”
February 2nd, 2010 at 4:25 am
when we drafted Schenn .. we wanted him in a few years to be like an Adam Foote type of player. And if he turned out like a Pheneuf then even better…
That is the ultimate compliment for Phaneuf isn’t it?
WE JUST GOT PHANEUF and did not give up any potential future young stars in getting him.
I think it is a great trade for the Leafs but I would not go as far as saying we gave up spare parts either. The return players are fair market salaries the Leafs gave up. In a non-salary cap world this deal is never made. Neither does Richards leave Tampa, Gomez leave NY, Cambell Brier leave Buffalo, and so on… But these trades will continue to occur for Cap flexibility…
February 2nd, 2010 at 4:29 am
I just hope RW does not restrain Dionne from attempting his open ice hits, because he will miss his targets some times. Not to compare the 2 but Exelby was known for open ice hits before in ATL and it seems he got caught hitting wind too often that made RW pull the plug on him to do try it again. Hope he gives Dionne the green light…
February 2nd, 2010 at 4:47 am
I hope that Phaneuf is the Scott Stevens that NJ had last decade during their dominance in the East. Easily comparable at this stage of their careers. As NJ was known as Stevens’ team. And “NO” Stevens did not drop the gloves that often but was effectively intimidating.
*
Heck if we miss Stajan and White that much, we can resign them in a year or 2 as free agents but ala D Moore I doubt it.
February 2nd, 2010 at 6:32 am
BLUEandWHITE wrote:
Gomez getting traded was rape by the Rangers.
February 2nd, 2010 at 11:37 am
@kats-you were comparing two deals. you used the word clandestine-all in the context of trying to illustrate how weak both returns were on those two trades-that was the basis of the comparison-the returns. the return on the thornton deal was absolutely weak because of its clandestine nature. however, the return on Phaneuf was what it was even though GMs knew he was on the block. thats fact-now you can argue Sutter made a horrible trade-thats debatable- but Phaneuf was offered around the league.
.
since when in the NHL is a top 4 dman and a top 6(who’s only making $3m per) “spare parts”. what I believe you meant to say was that Phaneuf was the only potential superstar involved in the deal and thats correct. he’s not a superstar now but he could be no doubt.
.
that comment-posters singing white and Hagman’s praises was not directed at you. it was posted to illustrate how quickly most on here jump off of the gravy train.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
[...] Gus pointed out in his article of Phaneuf’s regression in context, the rearguard played through a number of injuries while logging considerable ice-time in the [...]
February 5th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
[...] Gus pointed out in his article of Phaneuf’s regression in context, the rearguard played through a number of injuries while logging considerable ice-time in the [...]
February 27th, 2010 at 12:54 am
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