Less Scoring? Play Better Defense

Where will goals come from? Toronto softened offensively with the moves on the weekend and questions abound about who will put the puck in the net moving forward.

Maybe it’s not about who will make up the scoring; instead, with all these moves – and proved in the 3-0 win over the Devils – in the Leafs case, the best offense, is a solid defense.

By Gus Katsaros

Prior to the new look Leafs taking taking to the ice, the Maple Leafs had the distinction of ranking 5th overall in the NHL in goals scored per game in losses. They scored 2.08 goals per game in losses, trailing only Washington, Atlanta, Columbus and Dallas. While the Capitals are a goal scoring machine (average 4.49 gls/gm in Wins), the Thrashers (3.79), Blue Jackets (3.27) and Stars (3.63) also have an issue scoring goals.

Those ratios are good indications of what plagues those clubs; mediocre to downright horrible goaltending, with a touch of awful team defense. There’s a need to score more goals to make up for lack of backstopping or team defense ability.

Refering to the charts below, the Devils score an average of 3.14 goals-per-game in wins, and 1.54 in losses. If goaltending falters, they may not have the scoring ability to recover most nights. Similarly with Pittsburgh, if they aren’t scoring more than 1.55 goals-per-game, they’re losing, for the most part.

Goals Scored Per Game

Team GF/GW GF/GL

Team Goals For/Gm in Wins Goals For/Gm in Losses
Was 4.49 2.44
Atl 3.79 2.33
Cbs 3.27 2.14
Dal 3.63 2.13
Tor 4.00 2.08
Min 3.44 2.00
SJ 4.03 1.95
Col 3.50 1.92
Ana 3.65 1.87
Car 4.00 1.86
Van 4.09 1.85
Edm 4.06 1.84
Chi 3.84 1.83
StL 3.50 1.81
Flo 3.67 1.78
NYI 3.48 1.73
Ott 3.52 1.72
Pho 3.33 1.70
Phi 4.14 1.69
Buf 3.50 1.68
TB 3.82 1.66
Cal 3.44 1.62
Det 3.50 1.62
Mtl 3.56 1.61
LA 3.73 1.59
Nas 3.63 1.58
NJD 3.14 1.58
Bos 3.39 1.57
Pit 3.97 1.55
NYR 3.80 1.48

Goals Against Per Game

Flipping the statistics around and the Maple Leafs led the NHL with 4.13 goals allowed in losses, and allowing 2.00 goals against in wins. Once again, goaltending has it’s hand here. The four goals is a good three goal average with an empty net goal to seal the deal.

Team Goals Ag/Gm in Wins Goals Ag/Gm in Losses
Tor 2.00 4.13
Pit 2.00 4.09
Ott 1.71 4.08
Cbs 1.77 4.06
Was 2.03 4.00
Atl 2.13 3.97
Ana 1.88 3.93
Edm 2.29 3.86
Dal 2.13 3.84
Car 2.00 3.83
Phi 1.71 3.81
NYI 1.83 3.79
Van 1.62 3.75
NJD 1.46 3.68
Nas 2.10 3.67
Min 2.11 3.64
Col 1.67 3.63
TB 1.82 3.63
NYR 1.56 3.61
Pho 1.76 3.61
StL 1.63 3.55
LA 2.12 3.55
Flo 1.71 3.53
SJ 1.72 3.47
Buf 1.59 3.45
Mtl 1.80 3.42
Det 1.65 3.38
Chi 1.76 3.33
Cal 1.59 3.31
Bos 1.52 3.13

If the Leafs are going to be looking for goals up front, especially as they jettison more assets, the deficit could be made up by allowing fewer goals; more specifically, at least one goal per game less would give them a fighting chance to come out with a few extra time points, and upset a few teams along the way.

They may struggle to bulge more twine, but with a concerted effort, they could use the ounce of prevention instead of looking for a pound of cure.

It would be a shame to see the team succomb to a stifling defensive game, but if the Leafs want to make some kind of headway out of the basement – and out of a lottery pick position – a boring, effective style may have to take precedence the rest of the way.

katshockey@mapleleafshotstove.com
twitter.com/@KatsHockey

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  • lescott

    As far as I can find (I can’t find stats past 5 years ago), Gunnarsson has never scored more than 16 points. Kaberle he is not, and never will be. White scored over a point a game as a defenseman in Jr.

    Also, Whitey was our shut down guy most nights, usually paired with Beauchemin or Schenn, so let’s assume that he played more difficult minutes, often on his wrong side of the ice (and it didn’t bother him nearly as much as it did Schenn).

  • lescott

    care to call any of that innacurate?

  • kb

    @lescott

    I like White too, but truth is we all saw him committing far too many turnovers in his last 10 games (-8 in those 10 games I believe) – especially the 2 giveaways which led to goals in Friday’s NJ game. Gotta say that in the last 10 games, my opinion is that White was outplayed by Gunnarsson. White didn’t outplay anyone until 20+ games intolast season, as he started the first 10 or so games in the pressbox. So it is not 2 awesome seasons – more like a little over 1 season.

    Another point of interest – Gunnarsson has played in the World Championships (as has Whitey)…so obviously there has to be at least a little talent there.

    Having said that….we are all entitled to our opinions, and as such are free to see things differently. But I will ask this question. Do you know exactly how Gunnarsson compares to White amongst pro scouts?

    Finger has not shown squat this year – he has been tentative and mistake prone – although he was serviceable last year. However, Gunnarsson has outplayed him by a long shot so far. Do you really think that they would sit Finger if he was playing better than Gunnarsson – especially since they were on the hook for his $3.5M salary anyway?

  • lescott

    I think that Finger had he been playing would be easier to judge (maybe for the better maybe for the worse). I have seen good offensive glimpses of him this year when he did play though. I’m not comparing Finger to Gunnar, just saying that he isn’t as bad as people suggest. He’s just good enough to warrant his contract.

    Re: Gunnar and the scouts, I have seen him rated as a prospect from a 6c to a 7.5b but I haven’t really looked into it much.

    Keith Aulie played World Jr.s too, but that doesn’t compare him to White or Kabs…

  • lescott

    “[not] good enough to warrant his contract”, I mean.

  • mrburke

    with komi’s injury does this mean that the leafs have more money in the cap now?

  • BeLeafer

    @ lescott:
    irelevant points, what either did in jr. doesn’t matter or what the scouts rankings are right now, we’re mainly looking at what Gunnarson is doing at present and what he can turn into as he continues to grow with the team..
    I think mnost agree that while he is a different player than white he can take his place and bring a lot to the tabel

  • CarltontheBear

    lescott wrote:

    White scored over a point a game as a defenseman in Jr.

    Gunnarsson didnt play in any of the CHL leagues so not really comparable.

  • CarltontheBear

    @ mrburke:

    Komisarek will be put on the LTIR so that his salary won’t count against the cap for the rest of the season.

  • kb

    lescott wrote:

    I think that Finger had he been playing would be easier to judge (maybe for the better maybe for the worse). I have seen good offensive glimpses of him this year when he did play though. I’m not comparing Finger to Gunnar, just saying that he isn’t as bad as people suggest. He’s just good enough to warrant his contract.
    Re: Gunnar and the scouts, I have seen him rated as a prospect from a 6c to a 7.5b but I haven’t really looked into it much.
    Keith Aulie played World Jr.s too, but that doesn’t compare him to White or Kabs…

    Agreed that Finger has not really had any reasonable shot this year – he needs a string of games to get back to where he was. That’s why I’m hoping for XLB to be moved sooner rather than later – might give Finger more ice time to get more consistent. Finger was much better last year, although not $3.5M good ($2.5M’ish seems more like it).

    Aulie has played at the WJC, but both G-sson and Whitey played at last spring’s World Championships. They played similar roles on similar teams there – they were 5-6 D’men on their respective teams. Bummer that Whitey got injured there though….

    But don’t get me wrong – I like Whitey – and this is not a bash by any stretch. Just my own opinion is that the gap isn’t that wide between the 2.

  • lescott

    I think that he can take a place in the lineup, certainly not White’s place though — of course, that’s why we picked up Phaneuf and Aulie.

    I hardly think these points are irrelevant, as what professionals think of him, and his history are very relevant points, everything else which we say is simply opinion. In fact, I think it’s ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

  • leafs_17

    that whole trade for next captain thing i beleive is to be with the oilers for Ethan Moreau as per TSN

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=308773

    not sure if anybody touched on that yet

  • lescott

    okay Carleton, you think that the leagues that Gunnarson played in were more or less competetive than the AHL or the WHL?

    Either way, White’s stats are far better. So it would have to be a hell of a lot more competetive, for their pre-nhl careers to be even comparable…

  • Darkjester

    This gives Toronto a chance to take some other teams salary for this year. Maybe burke can turn this into some picks.

  • CarltontheBear

    lescott wrote:

    So it would have to be a hell of a lot more competetive, for their pre-nhl careers to be even comparable…

    You missed my point entirely. I said you can’t compare their junior careers. In Europe they play on a bigger ice surface, the scores tend to be lower and they only count the primary assist so you can’t compare the WHL to any of the leagues in Europe.

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  • TrevorE

    CarltontheBear wrote:

    lescott wrote:
    So it would have to be a hell of a lot more competetive, for their pre-nhl careers to be even comparable…
    You missed my point entirely. I said you can’t compare their junior careers. In Europe they play on a bigger ice surface, the scores tend to be lower and they only count the primary assist so you can’t compare the WHL to any of the leagues in Europe.

    Agreed, by Lee’s comparison Crosby was 10 x as good as ovechkin because all he did was score

    26 points in 37 games, 24 pts in 53 games, and 15 points in 40 games in his last 3 years in the russian league…not even a point a game? White’s Jr career was better then that. Sorry for the sarcasim but we all know how this story turns out.

  • http://checkingfrombehind.com danvertising

    Beauchemin played a similar role to Ian White when he was in Anaheim
    They are comparable two-way defensemen, who are considered second-tier guys
    That’s why I thought the Beauchemin signing was so irrelevant, as we already had White

    Comparing Gunnarsson to White isn’t really relevant as they play different roles.
    What we should be comparing, as if Gunnarsson and Phaneuf can make up for the loss of Kaberle’s offense once we eventually trade him?

    I go back-and-forth on Kaberle. I recognize the value of a pure puckmoving defenseman to a contending team.
    Think about it:
    Capitals – Green
    Penguins – Gonchar
    Red Wings – Lidstrom
    Blackhawks – Campbell

    But at the same time, I really do wonder how badly we need him. How bad it hurt out blueline if we lose him? I don’t know….

  • kb

    I keep thinking of possible targets for Kaberle on the off-chance he decides to waive his NTC.

    Say the going rate ends up being a first and a prospect. If I was Burkie, I would be targetting teams that are on the bubble now (or on the outside looking in), but desparate to make the playoffs. The benefits of this are two-fold.

    First, they might be willing to overpay somewhat (extra pick, etc.), and as such the quality of the prospect offered up might be significantly better than another team already firmly in the playoffs.

    Secondly, deadline deals rarely work out in favour of the team trying to load up for the playoffs, so this might mean is not only would we get a better prospect – we’d might have the added bonus of having a much higher selection in the draft (maybe the 8-15 range).

    Just throwing that out there….

  • Dazzastark

    We don’t have a draft pick. We’d have to obtain one and none of the lower ranked teams would give theirs up unless we tossed Luke or Kadri into the mix. However, this is all counter-productive. Our only real hope of obtaining a high draft pick for this year is selling off both Kaberle and Poni to Boston for our original pick in return. Tank the rest of the season and pick up a strong player at the draft.

  • kb

    @Dazza,

    Burke was originally setting a price at a 1st, a prospect, and an roster player for Kabs. That we know if probably a pipe dream now.

    I was just saying – let’s say for example the highest return BB can get an 1st and a prospect in return, and no more. I would target the teams most desperate to make the playoffs, and try to get the best prospect offered from any of the teams on the playoff bubble plus their first round pick. If that can be pulled off, and the team that acquires Kabs misses the playoffs, it is conceivable that the pick could be as high as a top 10 – in addition to already possessing the top quality prospect.

    The ‘acquire our own pick back from Boston’ ship sailed well before the ink even dried on the Kessel trade. Time to move on and look at what might be able to be done going forward.

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