No Cause To Worry About Gustavsson
Earlier today on a certain Toronto radio show, a grim portrait of Jonas Gustavsson’s future was painted, citing the 32 games he has appeared in so far in his career – most of those starts behind a lacklustre team – as evidence that he may never develop into the sort of goaltender the Leafs envisioned when signing him out of the Swedish Elite League.
The crux of the argument was that 32 games should be enough for Gustavsson to have shown some ability to adapt to goaltending coach Francois Allaire’s techniques, and that at 25 years of age it may be too late for him to make the necessary adjustments for NHL success.
However, absent of any relevant comparative analysis, as this argument was, one is inclined to say “back up the truck, buck.”
True, Jonas Gustavsson is 25 years old. What gets lost, however, is the fact that he is a true NHL rookie. Not only is this his first experience playing at hockey’s highest level, it is also his first real experience with North American hockey, period. The game is vastly different in a smaller rink (his tendency to kick out rebounds is evidence of habits one can get away with in larger SEL rinks, where net-crashing is a much less common occurence), and accordingly 32 games will not necessarily be enough to overcome the learning curve.
Francois Allaire, the goaltending guru who turned Patrick Roy into a Hall-of-Fame netminder, and who revamped Jean-Sebastian Giguere’s style to the tune of a Conn Smythe trophy and Stanley Cup, is without a doubt the man in the best position to offer an opinion on the progression, and potential, of Jonas Gustavsson. Here’s what he had to say, following the acquisition of J-S Giguere the other week:
“If we want to really develop Jonas the best way, it will be to train him more and play a little bit less. Jonas this year has to learn everything: new rinks, new team, new league, new country, new food. Everything at the same time. The schedule’s not easy as well, four games in a week many times. There was no break and no time to practise.
[...]
He tries everything we ask him to do. It was a tough situation for him. Everything I ask him to do in practice, in the gym, on video, he has been outstanding.”[Source]
So. The renowned goaltending guru offers a perfectly valid and reasonable opinion on why Gustavsson’s development has had its ups and downs … and is completely ignored by members of the MSM, who continue to push the notion that Gustavsson may not have what it takes to be an NHL starter. Because, you know, 32 games of NHL experience, as a rookie, is apparently more than enough to tell whether or not a goaltender has an NHL future.
It seems to be an odd argument given the factors involved, but okay, even at that point I understand how people could be swayed into buying that analysis. Perhaps Allaire is just talking up one of his guys, not wanting to derail his player’s confidence.
But before we commit to buying into an argument on the sheer principle that it happens to be the opinion of a member of the media, let’s take a look at Giguere’s success under Allaire. Call it comparison for comparison’s sake.
When Giguere first arrived in Anaheim, in 2000, he was 23 years old. Allaire had been with Anaheim for four years, having turned Guy Hebert into a starter of note in the late-90s. Already at that point, Giguere, once a highly-rated prospect, was carrying the “bust” label.
During Giguere’s first year in Anaheim, and under Allaire, he posted good, but not star-quality, numbers as a backup to the then-struggling (and soon to be traded) Hebert. In 34 games, Giguere posted an 11-17-5 record, with a 2.57 GAA (t-24th overall) and .911 SV% (14th overall).
However, it was during his second season (2001-02), as he began to get comfortable within Allaire’s technique, that Giguere’s statistics began to garner attention. At the age of 24, he appeared in 51 games, posting a 20-25-6 record, 2.13 GAA (5th overall) and .920 SV% (t-5th overall). Those numbers are all the more astounding considering the team finished 23rd overall in league standings that season.
And the rest, as they say, is history.
So let’s extrapolate that success to the situation faced by Jonas Gustavsson.
Consider that Giguere had the advantage of growing up in North America, and playing in North American rinks his entire life. Consider also that Giguere had the advantage of several years’ worth of NHL experience.
Gustavsson, on the other hand, must face several adjustments, both on and off the ice, that Giguere did not (as outlined above by Allaire). In 32 games played, Gustavsson has a 9-13-8 record, with a 3.07 GAA, and .898 SV%. Admittedly, those numbers appear underwhelming on the surface; yet, when examined in the context of the way the team in front of him performed for much of the season (especially on the penalty-kill), the numbers are about what one would expect from a rookie netminder on a defensively-challenged team.
True, Gustavsson has many holes in his game, notably rebound control, puck-handling, and a tendency to over-commit to the shooter (which prevents him from being able to adequately recover on many of those rebounds). However, those are all technique-based issues. The intangibles, the aspects of the game that cannot be taught — a willingness to be aggressive and challenge the shooter, and his ability to maintain focus after allowing a bad goal, and his practice and video room habits as noted by Allaire — have been present from day one.
The point is, 32 games of a rookie season, on a team whose defensive play has been (until recently) embarrassingly bad, is simply not enough to justifiably make an assessment on a rookie netminder’s NHL future. Especially when his struggles are a product of factors which are tangible, as opposed to intangible.
J-S Giguere began to find success in his second year in Francois Allaire’s system, at age 24. Is there any real evidence to suggest Gustavsson can’t adapt in similar fashion, in his second year in the system, when he will be 26 years old (and much more comfortable in North America, both on and off the ice)?
Like anything, patience is the key. Gustavsson has shown enough flashes in the games he has played to suggest there is room to grow, and his coaches have yet to express any concerns whatsoever with his progress to date. Next season he will in all likelihood continue his progression as a backup (or possible 1B) to Giguere, with an eye on taking over the starter’s role in 2011-12.
The bottom line is, at this point in time Gustavsson continues to offer plenty of hope for the future. However, expectations for immediate results must be kept in check; he has had to manage several simultaneous adjustments, and has still been able to post respectable numbers for a rookie goaltender on a team in a state of flux. One must recognize just how steep the learning curve is, and harbor a realistic expectation for how much time the process may take.
Granted, if he shows no noticeable signs of progression toward the end of next season, in his second year under Allaire and with a full year of adapting to life in North America under his belt, at that point concerns about his future based solely upon the stat line will be far more justifiable. But for now, it’s simply far too early to make that assessment.
A final note: the acquisition of Giguere was not a move borne of little faith in the progress of Gustavsson; rather, it was a move conceived (in part) to further his development by providing a mentor who (a) had his share of struggles as a young player in the league; (b) knows Allaire’s technique inside-out; and (c) was a very effective (and willing) mentor to another young goaltender in Anaheim. There is nothing but good news, in terms of Gustavsson’s opportunity to maximize his potential within this arrangement.
Looking forward to your thoughts as always,
garrettbauman@mapleleafshotstove.com
twitter.com/garrettbauman
February 10th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
Fucking right. Yes Yes! Tie game.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
TIE GAME!!!
Oh baby… what a team…
February 10th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Can’t seem to see the game on TSN… odd.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:17 pm
I like how my wife joins me for a Caps game but won’t watch the Leafs with me. The Ovechkin factor I guess.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
When Hal Gill played for the Leafs,
McGuire called him too old,too slow for ‘todays game’
Now,he’s the second coming of Larry Robinson…lol
February 10th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
…Damn.
I’ll never hear the end of this one.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:22 pm
Another OT win. Wish I never watched.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
we give up on our goalies too fast just look at rask or even pogge he’s posting a .923% lets not make the same mistake with gus.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
just because a goalie does well in obscurity does not mean he would do well in Toronto. The Leafs obviously require a proven goalie that can handle the pressure, not possible #1s. That being said, they shouldn’t give up on Gustavsson – provided he is willing to sign a reasonable contract to be a backup for one to two years.
Was watching the Caps/Habs game…Ovechkin just imposes his will on the game…Canada better have a plan to shut him down.
I have a question:
How do rookie salaries and their bonuses count against the cap?
February 10th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
TuckerThomas wrote:
How the fuck do the Habs do it? What are they in OT? Like 11-1 or something? Lucky little pukes.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:06 pm
JamesG wrote:
Damien ‘Cocks’ is a cock. So blatantly anti-Leaf it’s not funny. He actually lives on the same street as my Brother in Ancaster. Do you guys want to get together and egg his house?
February 10th, 2010 at 11:08 pm
Maybe Smurfs is a bad name as an insult. The Smurfs always get away with their lives.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:08 pm
Off topic, but just say Dreger on TSN talking about how Tomas Kaberle is sticking to his wish to stay with Toronto. Someone should write about this.
Kaberle’s done good work here, but he’s done in Toronto. Not waving the NTC, knowing that in all likelihood he’ll be sold off in the window that opens draft day, is frustrating. If he really cared about the Leafs, or the future of the franchise, he’d waive, and be well loved in Toronto.
By not waiving, it also makes one think he doesn’t really care about winning the big prize. If he waived now, he’d likely be headed to a team that will contend both this year and next. If he waits, he could go to any team…even Edmonton or Carolina.
By not waiving he’s sending the message that “I’m not a winner” and if you’re not a winner, what are you?
If he doesn’t waive…will fans boo him?
February 10th, 2010 at 11:11 pm
unfunny wrote:
Guess I’m gonna start cheering the Caps then. Cause I’m a winner and cheering for the Leafs suggests “I’m not a winner”!
February 10th, 2010 at 11:38 pm
Pierre is so pro-Habs cause he used to be the color analyst on the radio for their games.
I hate the Habs. I do love my Laich pickup in my money fantasy league though.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:46 pm
I’m pretty sure Bobby Ryan reads this site.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:49 pm
Charlie wrote:
He just knows that I needed a boost in our fantasy league. I haven’t edited my lineup for like a month. Luckily Laich and Ryan weren’t on the bench tonight.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:55 pm
TuckerThomas wrote:
Haha.
I hope he gets the hatty. Just for you and all his doubters.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
Allaire has it right, plus some forget that the kid lost his parents last year and has been called upon to play more consecutive games sooner, simply because Toskola has been hurt and the only alternative was not really all that inspiring as a starter.
Pogge was bailed on far too fast and unfairly driven out of town by some boobs in the press and by a few fans who know nothing about goalies.
Raycroft was booed out of town and deserved what he got, as a goalie who never seemed to take on any responsibility for a bad game. You have to have a little Curtis Joseph, or Ed Belfour, or Patrick Roy in you to be a top goalie, meaning that you get mad when you lose and you push your team-mates to do better or show them the way. Gus, has got that fire, but he needs to get a handle on the league to the point where the finer points are second nature, the Guigure move gives Gus a year to do his research, pay his dues and then offer a real challenge sometime next year if the chance arises. Guigure has a chance to start fresh and to avoid a repeat of the lost battle with a younger guy in Anaheim. Realistically, a situation where both goalies benefit and can offer the Leafs the best possible situation next year.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:07 am
What would it take to pry Carter from Philadelphia? Not from the Leafs in particular, but as far as assets go, generically speaking, for any team?
February 11th, 2010 at 12:09 am
@ unfunny
Obviously the fans aren’t going to boo kaberle for not waiving. give your head a shake. Just because he wants to remain a Leaf and try and turn the team around in toronto doesnt mean he doesnt like to win. I am all for trading him for a 1st rounder and top 6 forward, but really, him wanting to stay has nothing to do with not being a winner. It means his heart is in Tdot.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:14 am
What I don’t understand is why Burke doesnt’ say “listen Tomas, you want to stay, and we want you to stay, but we need you to bring in some assets so we can compete before you’re 37. pick a team in a city your family wouldn’t mind vacationing in, and after next season, you are welcome back in TO. we can work out a contract right now if you want, and it’ll just be sitting here waiting for you; you have my word.”
February 11th, 2010 at 12:26 am
I hope we see at least one more trade before the olympic trade freeze and then see the rest of the UFA’s traded on March.3.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:29 am
The only one I can see happening before the break would be Exelby. It would be sick if we could get the Wallin deal for Exelby. Teams are going to wait on Ponikarovsky, and especially Stempniak.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:44 am
@ Cameron:
I agree that Exellby would be the only deal we see and I hope we can move him because he doesn’t want to be a Leaf and I don’t want him to be a Leaf anymore,It would be best for everyone if he is moved now instead of later,It would be awsome if we could get the Wallin trade for him but a 4th rounder is good also.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:27 am
i could see why kaberle aint gonna waive his ntc…..burke didnt get what he was looking for last summer, kaberle’s gotta believe that there is a chance ( a small one) that burke will keep him for another year. What kaberle got to lose, he could finish of the seaoson in the town he loves instead of having to go somewhere now and then maybe go some other place after.
We’ll have to wiat till the summer for the kaberle trade , it aint gonna happen now……
February 11th, 2010 at 1:28 am
Cameron wrote:
I sometimes think that scenario is already in place but maybe Burke doesn’t see Tomas as necessary by then. Who knows?
I’ve been wondering about a trade that probably makes more sense in the summer as far as Kaberle is concerned, although I am someone who thinks Tomas will waive the NTC if BB let’s it be known(privately) that he has a trade in place that he likes.
What do you think of Kaberle + Beauchemin to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan + pick as the starting point for a trade.
The only reason I suggest this is because Anaheim has Dan Sexton signed for $575,000 next year as player they may want to get in the line-up. He’s got 9 goals and 9 assists in 28 games this year while playing only 13:56 /gm. A smaller player but he does average 1 hit a game and looks talented and versatile. His goals don’t appear to be an aberration or fluke as his shooting pct. is under 14.
By comparison Ryan’s shooting pct. last year was over 18%, a little hard to maintain for most players, playing 15.26 /gm. He’s bigger but does not hit that much more as yet. He will probably want a big raise and might like to move to the east(just guessing, but he is from New Jersey).
Perhaps Anaheim might prefer to upgrade their overall defense if they think Sexton is good to go next year. They also have Lupul signed longer term if he comes back ok. Do you think they will resign Artyukhin?
I don’t watch Anaheim games. Have you noticed Sexton at all? He’s really just a stat sheet to me right now.
Your thoughts?
Dan sexton Bio:
2008-09: Appeared in all 38 games with Bowling Green, collecting 17-22=39 points with 20 penalty minutes (PIM) Among Central Collegiate Hockey Association (CCHA) leaders, Sexton ranked tied for fifth in scoring and fifth in goals Was also tied for second in the CCHA with two shorthanded goals, tied for fifth with 18 power play points and tied for ninth with three game-winning goals Earned honorable mention from the CCHA in March when the 2008-09 All-CCHA First and Second Teams were announced Career Highlights: Recorded 60 points in 76 games with Bowling Green of the CCHA between 2007-2009 Began his collegiate career at Bowling Green in 2007-08, scoring 7-14=21 points with 42 PIM in 38 games Ranked fifth on the Falcons in scoring and first in shorthanded goals (3) while also recording two power play goals and five multiple-point games. Sexton earned CCHA Rookie of the Week honors with 2-2=4 points in a weekend sweep of Western Michigan, Jan. 18-19, 2008 Prior to joining Bowling Green, Sexton spent the 2006-07 season with Sioux Falls of the United States Hockey League (USHL). With 14-10=24 points and 20 PIM in 58 games, Sexton helped lead Sioux Falls to its first league title and a Tier I national championship. In eight USHL playoff games, Sexton scored 8-1=9 points with a +9 rating, leading the league in goals.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:00 am
Cameron wrote:
This x 100000000000000
February 11th, 2010 at 2:10 am
kingkessel wrote:
Haha! Too funny.
I’ll add to this.
BB: And further more, lets keep the agents and lawyers and stuff out of this OK Tomas.
TK: Sure thing Mr. Burke. We’re only dealing with millions of dollars here but hey, I have your word.
BB: That a boy Tomas. I knew you were a winner.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:26 am
Its Brian Burke dude. He does whatever he wants.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:10 am
[...] No Cause To Worry About Gustavsson : Maple Leafs Hot Stove [...]
February 11th, 2010 at 6:41 am
Regarding the Gustavsson story!
Which would you rather risk for the future?
A 25 year old who comes to a new country with a different culture and language.(shortly after losing his mother) and costing you nothing.
Or A Calder Cup winning goaltender who never playes a starter position post 2nd year who costs you a goalie named Rask.
No brainer, give this kid time!
February 11th, 2010 at 8:16 am
Cameron wrote:
Why won’t that work?
Phaneuf, Schenn, Gunnarsson, Aulie, Mikus, Komi, Beau, Finger, Oreskovic….. 2 years from now there won’t be any room for Kabby. Any of those guys that aren’t in the NHL already could easily be NHL ready by then, Burke won’t make a promise he can’t keep.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:35 am
Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but the fact that Gus is Sweden’s backup goalie for the Olympics should tell you something about his abilities. Granted he will be playing on bigger ice again…..or will he? Is the ice going to be NHL size or Olympic size? Sounds like a stupid question but I really don’t know. Anyway interesting fact: there are only 5 Swedish goalies in the NHL; for some reason I thought that wasn’t a lot.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:49 am
@ SeanTML:
The ice is NHL size. They’re playing all(I think) the games at GM place.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:51 am
Cameron wrote:
I guess it depends on what they need. I’m thinking goaltending…Emery is hurt again I believe. I think they’re looking for secondary scoring too. But getting rid of Carter certainly won’t help.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:08 am
SeanTML wrote:
Excellent point
February 11th, 2010 at 9:09 am
Forsberg to play for Sweden at Games:
http://www.faceoff.com/story.html?id=0640281e-4695-48a1-ad49-b22953ee9e3e
Wonder if Mats will strap them on and join him (behave!)
February 11th, 2010 at 9:16 am
@Charlie
What’s up Charlie!
February 11th, 2010 at 9:17 am
long_suffering_leaf_fan wrote:
What are you trying to kill the blog!
February 11th, 2010 at 9:17 am
@ Julie Sucks:
I think that part of their scoring problem stems from the fact that they have three scoring lines, and players have their job change every night. With Briere out last year, Carter and Richards were counted on to score, and their wingers knew what they had to get done. This year they’ve added VanRiemsdyk, Giroux (I know he was there for the last part of last year too), and Briere to that top six mix, and haven’t really subtracted anything.
I wonder if they would explore something like this in the summer, and I’m sure you’ll tell me if you think it’s stupid. Also, ignore the fact that it’s a three way deal for now:
To VAN: Kaberle, Mitchell, 3rd in 2010 (TOR)
To PHI: Schneider, Schroeder, 1st in 2010 (VAN)
To TOR: Carter
Everyone always throws Bieksa into these deals, but maybe the Nucks just throw in the rights to Mitchell, or O’Brien going to PHI, and stick with a Kaberle/Bieksa/Edler/Ehrhoff top 4. They’r rumored interested in Kaberle, and Schneider is definitely an expendable piece. They can take risks like throwing away a good prospect and a 1st because of the Sedins being locked up.
For Philly, they concenttrate their scoring, and basically start paying Briere to do what they hired him to do. He’ll have to take 2nd line duties beside JVR and Schroeder (former teammates = chemistry). Schneider is a goalie for their futre; potentially a franchise one. The first helps them replenish what they lost in the Pronger deal, and like I said, potentially, VAN throws in some rights in there as well.
Yes, no, maybe so?
February 11th, 2010 at 9:20 am
Seriously guys, I admire your courage. Why in hell would you watch a habs game? You seriously have too much time on your hands. I, will wait till the Leafs are a winning team to start watching habs game or mock them. I dread the habs-leafs game but we (leafs fan) crave for those games so much. I can’t wait till the day where we lose against the habs and we can still say, well we won 9 out of 10, no biggie.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:37 am
From Dregger:
Alexei Ponikarovsky continues to draw interest from as many as 10 teams. However, there have been no offers. The Leafs are asking for a second-round draft pick and a prospect or a roster player in return.
Toronto’s Tomas Kaberle remains firm on his desire to stay with the Maple Leafs, so failing a sudden change of heart, he will not be submitting a list of teams he would consider waiving his no-trade clause to join.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:39 am
A newspaper in montreal says the habs are about to trade for Frolov. The kings are trying to pull of another trade (ray whitney or slava Koslov) to send Frolov to montreal. Frolov is a really good player, but lacks heart. I’m still not sure how I feel about it. Is it a good or a bad thing. Could he Kovalev the dressing room with his princess like attitude and selfishness.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Cameron wrote:
They very well may do something in the summer. I’m hoping for a frist round sweep by the team they play. Their fans will sour on them after that no doubt. Hopefully Carter has 0 points and plays terrible. It always seems when the Flyers struggle their fans are quick to blame him.
You’re right. They’re definitely stuck with Briere, so they have to use him as their #1 or 2 center. That does create a log jam down the middle and in the top 6 positions.
Plus, the Flyers are never afraid to make big deals. So trading Carter is never impossible, IMO.
Finally we agree on something, Cameron!
February 11th, 2010 at 9:58 am
Great article Garrett. You’ve hit the nail on the head.
First, I just want to say that mainstream sports media in Toronto is an embarrassment. You look at most of the guys on Sportsnet, CBC, even Leafs TV and they are old, ex-NHLers or ex-NHL management who barely did anything significant during their careers. To suggest they know better than the coaching staff is laughable.
Now that that’s out of the way, here are my thoughts on the situation:
Gustavsson having to adjust to the North American game is major. As you’ve noted, the flaws in his technique are a result of being able to get away with those habits in a completely different style of game in Europe. The plus side however, is that Gustavsson has Allaire. Gustavsson has said he always wanted to develop the kind of technique that Allaire teaches. If anyone can correct the flaws in his game, it’s him. For Watters to suggest that Allaire is “ruining” Gustavsson just proves how irrelevant Watters has become.
Another key point in the Allaire quote is Gustavsson also having to adjust to the NHL schedule, and a condensed schedule this year, no less. This is not easy for any player. You think you can do it, but going from 40 or 50 games a year to 82, and all of the travel involved, it is a major adjustment. Also, Gustavsson was only ever expected to play 30ish games this season. But because of Toskala’s bed shitting, he was forced to come in and play more than Leafs coaching wanted. Before the Giguere trade, it became quite apparent to me that Jonas was starting to burnout. The errors in his game become a little more frequent than earlier in the season and this could be because of the added workload.
When Burke made the Giguere trade, I loved the quote he had regarding Allaire and Gustavsson. He said that Allaire thought that Gustavsson was more talented at this point in his career than Hiller was when he was at the same point. Right there, that shows how much potential Gustavsson has, and with the proper training, he can be something really special in this league. It is completely unrealistic to expect him to reach this potential immediately. He is 25. In my opinion, most rookie goalies shouldn’t be playing regularly in the NHL until their mid-20’s anyways. You’re not as mentally mature enough to handle the pressure in your early 20’s. Fleury, Price and Mason are proof of great goaltenders who struggled when they were brought into the league too early.
Moving forward, I sign Gustavsson to a two-year contract extension at a cap hit of around $2M or under. I think he needs at least one more, full year in the NHL to be truly evaluated. And playing behind Giguere all of next year will go a long way. Now that said, I’m not convinced it’s all or nothing for next year. I wouldn’t be against re-signing Giguere to a one year extension at a much cheaper cap hit to continue to tandem with Gustavsson for the following two years. At that point, Jonas will be allowed to continue to improve without the pressure of being the #1 guy. Sometime in the 2nd year of his contract extension he should be ready to take over, if not before.
Anyways, lengthy response to your blog Garrett, but very well done!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:01 am
long_suffering_leaf_fan wrote:
I guess we will have to wait till the summer to move him. At least he has put together a better year than last year, but he has 25 games to lay eggs to guarantee his return will be minimized. Sucks to be us!!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:05 am
B Leaf wrote:
It sure is looking that way as far as Kabs goes … I would like to see the return for Poni that Dregger suggests but it might be a bit much, I’d be happy with a good young roster player in return.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:07 am
@ danvertising:
Excellent post. I agree with everything you wrote.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:12 am
@ danvertising:
Good post danvertising and I, for one, have no problem reading lengthy replies in this genre.
It’s the stupid trade proposals that take up pages and pages that kill me. Once they start I tune out.