Fun With Numbers: Ranking Kessel’s Production

you guys are way off. this is how it’s going to go down:

The Night Before the Draft:

To Dallas: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Jamie Benn, 1st in 2010, 3rd in 2011

Neuwyndyk is friends with Kaberle, and rumored highly interested. Given his plethora of left wingers, this is not unrealistic at all.

At the NHL Entry Draft (1st round):

To Anaheim: Jamie Benn, 1st in 2010 (DAL), 2nd in 2011 (TOR)
To Toronto: Bobby Ryan

This is essentially the same return that Kessel got. Benn translates to a 1st round pick now that he is going to hit 20 goals in his first NHL season.

July First or the Start of Free Agency:

-sign Colby Armstrong, 3 years, 7.8 million (2.6 cap hit)

To Rangers: Mikhail Grabovski, Mikhail Stefanovich
To Toronto: Brandon Dubinsky, 2nd in 2011

This makes so much sense for both teams. Dubinsky and Drury do the exact same job, and so one is expendable, but Drury is unmoveable. Grabovski would provide a scoring center in their top six, which they lack, and also join a decent Russian base with Grachev, Anisimov, and Lisin.

To Chicago: Jay Rosehill
To Toronto: Brent Sopel, 3rd in 2011 (TOR), 4th in 2011 (CHI)

Salary dump trade. Burke gets some picks back pre-emptively, realizing that he sucks shit at trade deadline day.

2010/2011 Roster:

Nikolai Kulemin – Tyler Bozak – Phil Kessel
Viktor Stalberg – Nazem Kadri – Bobby Ryan
Fred Sjostrom – Brandon Dubinsky – Colby Armstrong
Wayne Primeau – Christian Hanson – Colton Orr

Ex – John Mitchell

Dion Phaneuf – Francois Beauchemin
Carl Gunnarsson – Luke Schenn
Mike Komisarek – Brent Sopel

J.S. Giguere – Jonas Gustavsson

CAP HIT – 57.233 million

The Marlies get headlined by a top line of Caputi / DiDomenico / D. Mitchell, and Burke adds two NCAA free agents to their top six (Bobby Butler and someone else).

@ bluebud:

Yea, I don’t think it’s that unrealistic or anything though. The Grabovski trade makes perfect sense, and we’ve heard lots about how Burke would trade for salary players in exchange for picks. Signing Armstrong isn’t out of the question either, so really, the only questionable part is the Kaberle + 2nd = B.Ryan + 3rd part of the scenario.

If someone like Ryan isn’t available though, either directly, or indirectly (by trading Kaberle, and then packaging that return with our 2nd next year, or prospects), then I say just keep Kaberle, bury Sopel, and fill that spot, temporarily, with a free agent like Torres; or maybe make a play for Byfuglien. But yea, pazazu hit the nail on the head – it’s everything Burke has claimed he will do:

1.) 1 RFA player a team can’t get resigned (B.Ryan)
2.) 1 UFA that fills a role very well and adds truculence (Armstrong)
3.) 1 salary dump trade that sees picks come to TO (Sopel)

And, it fulfills his top-six bottom-six role by letting Kadri take Grabovski’s spot (a tad risky), but putting a true 3rd line guy like Dubinsky in the bottom six center spot.

@ Garrett Bauman:

How do you know that though Garrett? To me, Getzlaf and Perry are both far more impressive than Bobby Ryan (who doesn’t produce nearly as much when taken away from his two Canadian peers). I would cry tears of joy if Burke landed Corey Perry somehow. To me, Ryan is not the player that Perry is, and Getzlaf is one of the league’s elite centers – these two have won a Cup.

Also, I’m pretty sure that Bob Murray was the one clamoring to have Bobby Ryan traded a year and a half ago when they couldn’t fit him in under the cap. It was rumored they wanted to ship him to Toronto, alongside Mathieu Schneider, for Ian White and a 1st round pick. Murray, or someone in the organization, thought he was a bust. If that’s true, it certainly explains Ryan’s reluctance to come to terms on a new contract.

Also, Ryan will get much more than 4 million an extension. Eriksson got 4.25, and he put up basically the same numbers as Ryan with 20 extra games. Comparing Ryan to Kessel, it looks like he’s going to be about on par with Kessel’s numbers from his final year on the entry-level contract (maybe a tad under, since he will need about 12 extra games to hit the 36 goal mark, but will probably best 60 points pretty easily).

@ derek:

He still might find some interest in Finger. Imagine Finger comes in for about 5 more games before the end of the year, and gets his plus/minus up to about -5, and pots another goal, or maybe a pair of assists. Suddenly, he’s not so untradeable. I think though, that Burke actually likes the idea of having Finger in the minors next year, as a reliable call-up incase of injury to someone like Beauchemin, Schenn or Komisarek.