Pre-Game: Phil Kessel vs. Tuukka Rask

Okay, I will respond to a bunch of things here.

First of all, a player’s value is not determined by who is the better player. So just because you wouldn’t trade Grabovski for Kulemin, does not mean that Kulemin is worth more on a contract extension. These things are all about age, contract status, production, career outlook, and team value. Like Jordan said, like it or lump it, Grabovski plays a more important role than Kulemin. There are dozens of checking wingers available. The only thing Kulemin has goiing for him is upside as a top six winger.

Think of it this way – if Kulemin wants to play hardball, he’s S.O.L. Unless he wants to go to the KHL (which he does not), then he has to take what Burke wants to pay him (which is likely in the 2-2.7 million range, depending on the term. Otherwise, the only way he’s playing in the NHL is if he gets an offer sheet. Well, Burke will match any offer sheet under 4 million, and no one will give an offer sheet over 4, because they aren’t going to overpay for Kulemin, and give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. Much like Brandon Dubinsky last year, Kulemin will learn that the power rests with Burke.

To me, Kulemin looks to be loving his time with the Leafs, so I can’t imagine him being super difficult in contract negotiations. Burke is the most player friendly GM in the league. Kulemin knows, if he signs this contract, and does well, Burke will pay him well on the next go around.

As for Finger over O’Brien, Vancouver will not do this deal. They will likely just give O’Brien away in the same fashion that we gave Wellwood away. He is a fine player, but he’s not worth much in a trade. Remember, San Jose had to give Ehrhoff away. To take Finger back though, would mean that O’Brien has negative value, which he does not. Plus, there is no need for us to give up anything, since Burke will just bury Finger without hesitation.

And finally, the only reason that Beauchemin may be expendable, is because Komisarek is returning. Keon, if you looked at my trade scenario, you would see that our defense movement is basically this:

Out:
Kaberle, Beauchemin, Finger (waived)
In:
Campbell, Komisarek, Blacker

@ Pazuzu:

Well, I think Wilson is doing this to see if Bozak can do it without Kessel and Kulemin; to see if Bozak can make Stalberg and Hanson better. He’s done well so far, as Stalberg has potted three since being put on his line. Really, the difference is Kulemin/Hanson, as Stalberg is capable of finishing, but is a little less predictable than Kessel. Hanson though, while he improves every game, is not as complete as Kulemin.

I haven’t noticed any discernible chemistry between Kulemin/Grabovski/Kessel.

Campbell has as many downfalls as Kaberle though. He doesn’t have nearly as much hockey sense. He drove Scotty Bowman nuts during the playoffs last year. Remember the clip of Bowman basically being caught mouthing “what the fuck was campbell thinking?!?!”. Hilarious stuff. He’s not as smart as Kaberle, or good at handling the puck, but he has a much better shot, is more aggressive, and is willing to use his shot more often.

Anyways, Campbell has a NTC, which, as we saw with Giguere, makes him even more worthless on the trade market. Very few teams can afford him. Maybe Carolina, New Jersey, Colorado, and St.Louis. I doubt all of them are interested in Campbell; maybe 2 or 3 if he is coming with additional assets and they get to dump their own trash on the side. But Campbell is obviously going to have final say in where he goes, which is where Burke comes into play. I’ve little doubt he would convince Campbell that Toronto is the best option (assuming he wanted this trade).

Also, be very careful with the wording of what Burke said, because, as we saw with offer sheets, and some other situations, he’s very precise. He said that he has never awarded a player with a contract longer than 5 years. He said that he would go longer if it was a very special player. He never said anything about acquiring contracts though. And like I said, if the reward is great enough, I think he would pull the trigger. Imagine in one summer turning:

Kaberle, Beauchemin, Finger, Graboski, Rosehill, 2nd, 3rd
into
Campbell, Komisarek, B.Ryan, J.Neal, Kadri, Aulie

That’s a massive revamp, and yet it doesn’t disturb so much of what has worked well, like Kessel/Bozak, Kulemin, Schenn/Gunnar, Giggy/Gus, Stalberg/Hanson, and so on. And talk about giving Kadri maximum oppurtunity to succeed, surrounding him with talent like that would be killer.

@ keon:

No, there’s little doubt in my mind that assets will have to come back with Campbell in any deal. No one can afford his contract, and he can veto any trade he wishes. This is like Bryan McCabe, except that there isn’t two years remaining on Campbell’s deal, there’s 6, and he doesn’t cost 5.75, he costs 7.14 annually. Also, not moving Campbell and Huet this summer (by giving up assets, like picks), means they’re looking at giving away AT LEAST four other players (choose from Sharp, Byfuglien, Bolland, Versteeg), and letting Ladd, Madden, Eager and Burrish walk. The deal I suggest, if Campbell approves, allows the Hawks to retain everyone, except Byfuglien:

To CHI: Beauchemin, Rosehill, 3rd in 2010
To TOR: Campbell, Byfuglien, 1st in 2010

In a cap world, you have to pay up for 6 million in cap savings (plus it’s not like Beauchemin isn’t a great defensemen in his own right – he’s a much better value than Campbell at 3.8 million). So it’s just like the McCabe situation really, except that the added expense of Campbell means that instead of giving up just an extra 4th, they are dropping 35 spots in the draft, and taking it hard on a Byfuglien/Rosehill swap. Pretty good deal though, as assuming they dump Sopel and Huet in the minors as rumored, means the rest of their team stays full intact, and all resigns get done easily.

How aboout the NHLPA. You can’t just bury a guy who’s living up to his contract, for 6 years, simply because you bungled the salary cap. They would be sued hardcore. Plus, no ownership in the league, even the Rangers, is going to okay 7.2 million in wasted salary for 6 consecutive years. How many millionaires are willing to just eat 44 million dollars? None that I know. They have to move him.

@ honesthockey:

Because it’s humiliating, and there’s no reason for it. If someone paid you the same money as you make now to clean bathrooms, you wouldn’t do it – especially if your job, and your circumstance was public knowledge. The AHL is not the same lifstyle as the NHL. It’s long bus rides, and miserable travel schedules. It is a demotion, plain and simple, and if the demotion is not merited (ie. the player is skilled enough to make the team), then the NHLPA will grieve the issue successfully. They threatened this with McCabe. They would slaughter the issue with Campbell. His stats are very, very good, and he is amongst ice-time leaders on one of the best teams in the league. Campbell signed up to play for the Blackhawks, in the NHL, and he would easily win any kind of attempt to have him banished to the minors.

That being said, Bowman would not do this. Like Lou Lamiorello, he would give up the necessary package to move Campbell on his way.

Redden may be a different case, as you can argue that he doesn’t even deserve to make the NHL, much less the Rangers squad. His play has fallen off so much, that there could be legitimate cause for Sather to bury his contract.

All this being said, I’m pretty sure the CBA has some clauses that prevents you from burying a contract for more than a certain duration. If it were that easy, why would Anaheim take on Blake and Toskala to move Giguere? Why would San Jose give Ehrhoff away? If the Hawks buried Campbell, after they clearly fucked themselves royally with all their ridiculous contracts, they would never a sign a free agent again.