Kats Krunch: Regular Season Numbers

by on April 12, 2010 in Leafs News - 10 Comments

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We will do an extended Torontosaurus Rex after preparing for the playoffs is over, later on in the week. But since the regular season is over, it’s time for some numbers. It’s also interesting to note how the two teams Flyers and Rangers with the lowest amount of shootout games with six, decided their playoff fates with a shootout.

(Gus Katsaros) — It’s interesting to see how the NHL goal-per-game had dropped and approached the post-lockout low of 5.40 in 2007-08 before a late season boost. As the chart below indicates, the months of March and April pulled up the monthly average to its second lowest value of 5.53 goals-per-game for the 2009-10 season.

These are the results from a monthly perspective. Note the spike in November and April in shootouts. The NHL had a season high 182 shootouts, 14.797% and played 299 extra time games, approximately 24.3% of the NHL schedule.

The true measure of how teams are able to win and which actually used the extra time games to their distinct advantage are marked below. I’ve concluded that the lack of playoff race among a greater selection of teams is proportionate to the amount of extra time games involved in a season overall by NHL teams.

Aside from the Rangers/Flyers decided on the final day, there were less than a handful of teams fighting it out for a playoff spot in 2009-10 in comparison to other post-lockout seasons. With 300 extra points injected into the standings, it’s no wonder the playoff race in March/April was essentially non existent.

The mentality seems to be 180 degerees however. Most fans believe the shootout and overtime create enough parity that results skew standings enough to screw over teams postseason aspirations.

In fact, it’s the opposite. The more extra time games, the less of a playoff race in March/April, while keeping the race fairly tight in mid-season, when viewers/fans and other may have their attention wane, including focusing on the NFL and Super Bowl.

While some teams may have used the extra time games to secure a playoff spot (ahem, Montreal, Boston, Phoenix).

The columns indicate total 1-goal games, broken down into overtime and shootout records, and then simply 1-goal games decided in regulation. The final column is winning percentage.

The results from shootouts since the implementation as lockouts are documented below.

Annual Shootout Results

katshockey [at] mapleleafshotstove.com
twitter.com/@KatsHockey

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  • http://www.heroesinrehab.ca/blog junior

    Hey Gus, should Leaf fans draw any comfort from the fact that:

    (a) we seem to have lost an inordinate number of OT games (5-10), which is presumably unsustainable (at least assuming we get league average goaltending from Jiggy and the Monster); and

    (b) we seem to have actually done reasonably well in regulation 1 goal games (7-8), indicating a more well-rounded ability to compete and win games in the ordinary course?

    Or are the sample sizes all too small to draw any real conclusions from?

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  • http://mckeenshockey.com Katshockey

    Jr, I am going to say that in consideration to this season, none of the Leafs statistics, aside from Kessel scoring 30 goals is relevant.
    Sample size is too small, and all the roster turnover, and the basic objective of this season don’t jive on the numbers floating around above.

    Brian Burke had to do 2 things this season:

    1) get rid of the driftwood clogging up the roster and cap space
    2) start putting prospects into the system

    There are other issues, of course, but in the grand scheme I think that is what he wanted to accomplish and then move forward with a team in the mold he wants them to be like.

    Everything about relating to Toronto should be taken with a grain of salt…

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  • http://kennymalhotra.com deadprez

    Awesome Job to the Site Boys!!! Looks off the hook!

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  • sw

    Very nice new look guys. WOW !

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  • JasonTrent

    K so great new look, things look sharper and less bloggy. My only gripe is that the main text is too “column” I would’ve liked a bit more width there, so I can take in more content without having to scroll down for every sentence. As a content site rather than a quick paragraph of information, you want more words per line for readability, which the old version had in spades.

    Barring getting rid of the right column, have you guys experimented with smaller margins on the side, i.e. the gunmetal gray areas? I should mention I feel this way both on regular setting and on 1248 x 1368

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  • BurkiewillFINISHthis

    Sorry..ignore me…just testing this out…I suck

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  • Komi

    Playoff Pool time!

    Go to: http://fantasy.sportsnet.ca/sportsnet/hkplayoff10
    It’s free and there are great prizes on the line including a
    52″ Flat Panel HDTV, not to mention national bragging rights!

    Once you’ve registered go to the Groups page at
    http://fantasy.sportsnet.ca/sportsnet/hkplayoff10/groups
    and join the “Maple Leafs Hot Stove” group that I’ve created.
    The group password is: leafs

    Congrats to everyone who played in the regular season pool!

    Maybe an ADMIN can post this as a blog.

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  • http://cartika.com Andrew R

    fantastic stuff Gus !!!

    I for one was guilty of assigning value to the OT losses and how changing those scenarios would change the fortunes of this club. Well done man, as per usual, you have made me re-think my stance with hard numbers and stats…

    cheers dude.

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  • leafs_17

    the new site looks great! nice job fellas

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