No Loss Un-Nonis’ed

by on April 29, 2010 in Uncategorized - 254 Comments

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The news that the Tampa Bay Lightning have Dave Nonis at the top of their shortlist for general manager candidates was perhaps an instance of the inevitable. If Tampa or Nonis deem it not a right fit, we can only expect more of the same from other owners looking to fill vacant general manager positions.

It was reported at the time of Nonis’ signing that a one-year clause was included to assure Nonis’ services belonged to the Leafs for 2009-10 at a minimum. When Nonis’ contractual obligation ends is unclear, but from Joe Nieuwendyk to Steffan Kronwall to Justin Pogge, it’s clear Burke will never step in the way of an employee’s desire to advance professionally.

But not all hope is lost. First, let’s look at what the Leafs have in Nonis, and hopefully what they don’t end up losing.

It’s often unknown exactly what role the assistant general manager plays in a given front office decision by an NHL club. That we hear detail about Nonis’ hand in many of the Leafs’ managerial decisions of the past year tells you he’s doing a lot right. Plus, you only have to shift your attention to the years 2004-2008 to understand Nonis has a number of prudent decisions on his resume as a frontline general manager. The Luongo deal speaks for itself; As Bitter Leaf notes, the choice to match on the Ryan Kesler offer-sheet was knowingly bound to generate some bad press at the time, but Nonis’ apt talent evaluation and long-term thinking continues to shine through today as Kesler goes a point-a-game in the playoffs following a 75-point season and a strong showing for the U.S. Olympic team. His ultimate downfall out West was perhaps his unwillingness to take a gamble at the deadline of 2008 as fans were calling for a major change to improve a struggling offense. There were rumours of an Alexander Edler and a first for Brad Richards deal sitting on the table that Nonis walked away from, deeming the long-term sacrifice wasn’t worth the short-term gain as the Canucks weren’t close enough yet to Stanley Cup contention. One could argue the Canucks are better positioned to compete now and later because of Nonis’ patient eye for the future, but he inevitably became Francesco Aquilini’s fall guy.

Interesting to consider, then, is that Nonis seems very much the ying to Burke’s yang. The pragmatic personality Nonis provides to the front office seems a valuable counterbalance to the at times hot-blooded Burke.  Nonis’ composure is what makes him such a shrewd negotiator and is why Burke entrusted Nonis with taking the wheel during such a pivotal time of year for league management – the opening of unrestricted free agency. While Burke pursued Gustavsson overseas, it was Nonis negotiating and ultimately sealing the contracts of Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin and Colton Orr during opening week. While none could be called steals a season in, all salary figures were pleasantly fair considering the mania of early July, when so many GMs – as we as Leafs fans know too well – can’t help but gamble on long term overpayments. Not to mention the credit Burke often gives to Nonis for negotiations relating to their many college free agent endeavours that have played such a key role in making up ground for lost picks in the Kessel deal, or his role in the Phaneuf blockbuster.

It’s the complete level of trust between Burke and Nonis rooted in their history together from their time united in Vancouver, to Anaheim, to Toronto, and reciprocal personalities that makes the pair a team stronger than it’s individual halves. It’s perhaps also why Leafs fans can hope Nonis will continue on with what he and Burke have started in Toronto.

It may be increasingly rare concept in the world of sport, but loyalty may well win out in the Leafs’ favour here. If someone has an audio or a news link to Nonis calling his job the envy of the league, please share because I remember something to that tune. Nonetheless, the respect between Nonis and Burke is obvious, and there’s little doubt that Nonis is receiving plenty of accreditation from Burke, who often works in a shout out in his press conferences, and to a lesser extent the media.

Additionally, the Leafs may have more than loyalty to lean on here. Put yourself in Nonis’ shoes as an employee and consider how rewarding and fulfilling it can be to find yourself in a respected, influential and presumably well-compensated position within an organization. And it’s not a totally uncommon situation across the hockey world for hockey execs in Nonis’ circumstance to stand pat.

Jim Nill has ridden shot-gun to Ken Holland since 1994. Few would dispute that he’s overseen the most productive and opportunistic scouting staff for over a decade, and would have no problems finding a ship to captain if he so desired.

David McNab is another long-time assistant GM who has been in Anaheim since the club’s inception in ’93, best known for his ability to scour the collegiate system and find hidden talent. He added Andy McDonald, Chris Kunitz, Dustin Penner, and Ryan Shannon to the Duck fold as little-known players out of college.

David Conte has been the brain behind draft-day coups such as Marty Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Patrick Elias and Scott Niedermayer. Comfortable alongside Lamoriello in New Jersey, he serves as the VP of Hockey Operations and Director of Scouting.

Tampa Bay may not prove to be the ideal fit for Nonis as a drafter/builder on a club already armed with a lot of young talent and in need of some immediate upgrades. That’s not to say a better fit won’t come along at some time in the not-too-distant future.

But hopefully, Nonis sees his current position within the Leafs organization as that right fit and continues seeing out the vision he and Burke have devised.

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  • Tim Horton

    Carter got a 5 mil contract after a career high 53 point 29 goal season now that he has a 84 point 46 goal season under his belt he’s going to be in for a pretty good raise after next season. He has a complete game so its worth it, but i’m just making a note… it’s also all the more reason Philly can’t afford him…

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  • Cactus

    What does everyone think the best defence pairings will be next season? Assuming that Kaberle is traded and Finger is somehow traded or buried, I see it like this:
     
    Phaneuf/Beauchemin
    Gunnarsson/Schenn
    Mikus/Komisarek
     
    Our top defenceman, Phaneuf, will get 25+ minutes a game, and will have different pairings depending on the situation, with Beauchemin being his standard 5 on 5 partner. Beau will be given every opportunity to bounce back, but if he doesn’t, I see him dropping to ~20 minutes a game, while Schenn will rise to 20+. Schenn is a stay at home defenceman with a right-handed shot, which compliments Gunnarsson’s game perfectly. Gunnar should continue playing over 20 minutes most nights, and see some PP time as well as extended PK minutes. Komi will play different minutes game by game all depending whether he shows himself to be the dominant physical force he was two seasons ago. Mikus seems to be the most NHL ready Marlie besides Oreskovic, but I give him the better chance of making the club due to his good spring training last season and his offense-oriented game, which the Leafs would be sorely lacking if/when Kaberle is traded.

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  • Cameron

    @ Gby:
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    Finger will almost certainly be placed in the minors and used as an injury call up. Burke has alluded to this several times, saying that he won’t be handicapped by the mistake signings of other GMs. Well, Finger is the only mistake left, so one could infer that Finger will be sent to the minors pretty fairly. It’s possible a trade develops though. He has MUCH better stats than Sheldon Souray, who makes more money, and has a much bigger cap hit. If he can be moved, Finger can be moved.
    -
    I belive Grabovski was drafted a winger, so he probably could play there. The problem is, he isn’t ideal for winning board battles. But, you never know, if he comes to camp at about 195, or pushing two hundred, he could be the perfect play-making winger for a center like Carter. I think Carter is available, because the team has gotten on fine without him, and Briere elevates his game with the extra ice-time. Also, Briere has a NTC, and anyone who would take Briere, would likely also want JVR or Giroux included in the package, and they’d want to give up little in return. I’d say keeping those cost-effective players like JVR and Giroux is more important than keeping Carter.
    -
    Also, Briere becomes very moveable in 2-3 years when his salary drops to 3 million. All the non-cap teams (ie. Nashville), would pay well for him at that point, so you have to think long-term in terms of getting the best assets back. Carter would get them the best return right now, and also allow them to keep what’s working well.
    -
    @Dirk Diggler
    -
    As for your speculation about Phillies goaltending situation, is their a trade that makes more sense than:
    -
    To BOS: Simon Gagne
    To PHI: Tim Thomas, pick/prospect
    -
    Boston can’t afford to have Thomas sitting on the bench making 5 million, and Boston shouldn’t fool themselves into thinking they don’t need scoring during this post-season.

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  • Cameron

    @ Cactus:
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    One way I’ve been looking at it lately, is that all the most successful teams in the league got about 40 goals from their back-end this year. The Leafs had 34 goals from their back-end, so we still need some improvement back there. So, pencil in what we have:
    -
    Phaneuf – 12-15 (approx)
    Schenn – 5
    Beauchemin – 5
    Gunnarsson – 5
    Komisarek – 4
    -
    I figure we have about 30 goals, so we need to add someone who can throw up at least 5, and then hope for slight improvements from Schenn, Beauchemin, and Gunnarsson. But if we move Kaberle, we do need to find someone capable. My preference is still Jonathan Blum.

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  • Gby

    @ Cameron:
    I would love Gagne as a Leaf. Great two way game and has the scoring touch. Fantastic on the PK as well. I think under used since Philly’s centers have developed, and probably expendable now as well. That being said I’d rather have Carter.
    That being said, I’d love to have either.
    -
    I think Grabovski would bode well as a winger. Not every winger is set out to be a power forward as well (think Kessel). I think if we did have a “big body presence” (PM, 2006) such as Carter at center, Grabo would be pretty nifty on his wing, and maybe another power forward on the other side. Also a weak side point, usually all three forwards get involved in a cycle, and often board battle. So whether Grabovski is at wing or center, he will be involved in this type of action anyway. I think the criticism that should be applied to Mikhail is that on a dump and chase, he can’t go in there and bang – But Carter can, or whatever ‘big’ center we get. And we will get one, that’s Burke (I think)
    -
    I will be shocked if Finger doesn’t get buried.
    -
    It seems on this board, it’s a given fact that Kaberle is being dealt. Can Gunnarson replace him on the PP? Was our PP even That good this year?
    -

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  • Tim Horton

    @ Cameron:
    I was about to say Blum would be perfect to slot in that D line up but didn’t want to stir up any leftover feelings from yesterday so I laid off… But since you were so bold… I don’t like throwing Mikus in that lineup, I don’t think he’s ready… This is why I think we need to add another good young defender to our line up. A prospect who could develop with limited ice time in the NHL right now and fill in on the PP and take over a top 4 spot in a few years when contacts such as Beauchemins expire.

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  • kb
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  • Cameron

    My question is, with Bozak and Kadri in the system, if Carter was available for Kaberle, would you keep him, or flip him for Bobby Ryan? Tandems of Bozak/Kessel, Kadri/Ryan, and Kulemin/Grabo would be very effective next year, and allow burke to fill in the blanks via free agency.

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  • Cameron

    @ kb:
    -
    They are there to learn how to win, and to be around winners. The Marlies were going to be losers this year, and Burke didn’t want to start tainting any of his prospects (except the ones he knew would be Leafs, obviously) with that loser environment. One of the msot telling things Burke has said since coming to TO was recently, when asked about the guys who left, and he said “losing is corrosive to a player; they had seen too much losing.” Even if Mitchell and Ryan aren’t getting ideal ice-time with the spitfires, they are watching winners, and being surrounded by them. Winning breeds winners. That’s the theory. It had little to do with Mitchell’s AHL-readiness. He probably would have potted 30-40 points for the Marlies once the frat pack was called up.

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  • kb

    @ Tim Horton:

    Blum would be a great pickup if it was at a reasonable price. No question there. They have a lot of puck moving D-men in their system. I could see someone like Aulie+ going the other way as they don’t have a lot of big, shutdown types in the system.

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  • http://checkingfrombehind.com danvertising

    @ kb:
    Kenny Ryan has another year or two in junior. It was his first season in the CHL, and did MLSE even know he was going to jump from NCAA to CHL at that point? Even so, it doesn’t matter. Ryan has plenty of time to develop ahead of him.
    .
    As a manager you don’t base your decision to send him back on how it will affect your other prospects. You make the best decision for that player… Going back to junior was it. Kenny Ryan doesn’t even factor in to the equation.

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  • Kostas

    Don’t see Aulie leaving since BB and Nonis worked really hard in getting him apart of the package this past year.

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  • http://checkingfrombehind.com danvertising

    In other news… God I hope the Penguins win today.

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  • Gby

    Cameron wrote:

    My question is, with Bozak and Kadri in the system, if Carter was available for Kaberle, would you keep him, or flip him for Bobby Ryan? Tandems of Bozak/Kessel, Kadri/Ryan, and Kulemin/Grabo would be very effective next year, and allow burke to fill in the blanks via free agency.

    There’s no question that I would keep Carter. He’s more proven, and he plays center, he’s also a quality face-off man which the Leafs need. I don’t see Kadri on the Leafs this upcoming year anyway (especially if Carter is traded). He’d do well to have some AHL experience, similar to Getzlaf and Perry in Anaheim.
    But take a look around the league at the successful teams, depth at center.
    Crosby, Malkin, Staal
    Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Filpulla
    Savard, Krejci, Bergeron
    Thornton, Pavelski, Nichol (best fc% in league)
    Richards, Carter, Briere
    Connolly, Roy, ? Gaustad I guess
    Sedin, Kesler, Wellwood?

    Either way, at least two Good centers is what it takes. I’m not convinced at Kadri or Bozak being in this class listed above in the next two years. Carter, however, is a game changer.
    Besides, the idea of having 3 tandems kind of goes against Burke’s whole philosophy anyway (top 6, bottom 6) so I don’t really see that happening.

    We’ve got the D sorted, the G is as sorted as it can be for this upcoming season, I think the next on the list is a game changing center. I would not deal Carter for Ryan.

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  • Gby
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  • kb

    @ Cameron:
    -
    Mitchell was around winners – he was part of the Mem Cup winning team last year. Sometimes you learn more through adversity, and that might have been just as good for him going forward. But again, I can see the point.
    -
    As far as the Carter/Ryan debate, it is a tough call. I think Ryan works better long term, but Carter might be better for next year – he’d allow the kids more room to develop, and you could put Kadri on his wing.
    -
    Really tough call though.

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  • Tim Horton

    @ Gby:
    Wait a second how did you bold Carter? I think I figured it out… don’t worry my mind is not blown anymore…

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  • Stanley goes to White Kessel
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  • Cactus
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  • Cactus
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  • kb

    @ danvertising:
    -
    Mitchell is more of a known quantity. What you see is what you get with him…..he is what he is. If he needs a 5th season of junior to further his development, then I submit that he is not going anywhere. In the end it just took ice time away from Ryan.
    -
    Ryan has not yet had the chance to develop, and it is doubtful that playing on the 3rd/4th line minutes on the Spits aids in his development.
    -
    @ Kostas:
    -
    I don’t see it either, but you have to look at what an organization needs when assessing possible trades. As I said, I don’t see the Preds and Leafs making good trade partners at this point.

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  • Cameron

    @ Gby:
    -
    I personally think Carter is very over-rated, and would prefer Ryan. Carter racks up a lot of points when the game doesn’t matter anymore. You’ll always see him pot a goal when the score is already 3 or 4 nothing for the Flyers. I’m not saying he’s not a good player; he’s obviously very good. I just think that the expectations on him would be so huge here, and the potential for disappointment would be massive.
    -
    I do see the point about needing depth at center, but there will be centers available next summer. Plus, it would be nice to see what we have in Kadri and Bozak before we assume they won’t develop into very nice centers. Chicago doesn’t have the most ridiculous centers and they do just fine. Toews is a star of course, but Bolland and Sharp aren’t elite calibre guys. You CAN succeed with winger strength.

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  • Cameron

    @ Cactus:
    -
    I think Burke spews a lot of stuff about his players whether they are true or not too. He said he wanted to keep Poni at that point too, and that he was sure he would score 30 goals. He said Stajan was a top six forward, and that Hagman was a keeper. He said Blake was the hardest working player on the team and that Toskala was a capable number one. I think he learned his lesson after calling out Antropov. The media is so absurd here, one criticism means the player is absolutely worthless. Look at what’s happened with Kaberle. Wilson says he needs to improve his plus/minus, and suddenly he is the worst defensemen in the history of the organization and he has to go before he brings us down any further. Give me a break.
    -
    Likewise, Burke is talking up his prospects, but being pretty selective. He mentions Mikus and Paradis as guys he likes and thinks could break through, but not DiDomenico who is more likely to be a Toronto mainstay. I think the reasons for this are two fold: give value to othewise unheard of commodities, and draw attention away from his more desirable prospects. Wouldn’t be surrpized if Mikus and Paradis were packaged together actually. That would probably be a good package for Nashville, ey Kb?

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  • Wook
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  • Cactus

    @ Cameron:

    I guess, but he talked up both Gunnarsson and Mikus at the same time, right after spring training, and we all know what happened with Gunnar.

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