Swinging for the Fences

by on June 22, 2010 in Entry Draft - 293 Comments

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Just had a brief word with Leafs head of amateur scouting Dave Morrison, who spoke about the approach to this weekend’s draft without a first or second round pick in hand (as of now):

We have done our list the same as we would in any other year fully prepared for anything that may happen. However we have certainly spent more time looking at a group of players that we think could be there when we pick at 62. Every year we try to unearth a gem and it will be no different at this draft.

Given that the scouting staff has focused more efforts than usual in looking at players within the 62nd pick range, you would think this gives them a slight edge in finding that “gem” should he be out there.

The question then became for me: is there a decision that must be made when picking at 62 between going with a high-risk, high-reward prospect or looking more for a player the scouting staff feels could develop into being “serviceable” within a certain role? The rumblings within scouting circles that Justin Shugg is of high interest to Leafs scouts and management fits more into the latter approach. Morrison had this to say:

Good question. We spend a lot of time on that. There is always a risk reward equation we go through with the players. We factor that in when we make our list. We will take the best NHL prospect on our list at 62. Sometimes you need to swing at the fence to hit a homerun.

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  • tron

    I think Huet to go on loan to Europe but we would pay his salary would like bad upon the Leafs similar to getting the 4th rounder from Tampa last year. I think Bettman would just wait to find a way to get us back. Although, the idea is not a bad one, I don’t like the idea of trading more draft picks. to build a winner in the future you need to have continued good drafting and not have a go for broke team. Look at Ottawa, that’s what they did and now they are suffering.

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  • rpearce76

    I don’t know how this would look on the cap but here is what I would like to try to do.

    To address the top 6 we take these avenues:
    1. sign Kovy
    2. trade Kabs
    3. possibly sign Poni if he takes a discount

    Top 6:
    Kovy – Bozak – Kessel
    Kuli – Kadri/Grabs – Poni
    kabs trade

    To address bottom 6 we make offers to all these guys:
    Glen Metropolit – 1 mil
    Raffi Torres – 1.5 mil
    Colby Armstrong – 2.25mil

    bottom 6:
    Metro – Torres – Armstrong
    Orr – Hanson – Caputi
    Stalberg – Grabs/Kadri

    I think we can sign all those bottom 6 guys at good enough rates to still allow for kovy money. Also if Poni will come back at around 2 mil I’d take him as he can slide in a top 6 or bottom 6 role. I won’t be heartbroken if he doesn’t sign but if I’m being honest the guy is a good quality depth player. It isn’t his fault he was one of the best players on a bad team and the pressure was on him to be a top 3 player.

    These moves also allow us some flexibility in dealing with younger guys like Kadri, Caputi, Stalberg, etc. They won’t all get spots unless they earn them. They will have to impress Burke/Wilson to beat out some of those other guys for full time NHL jobs.

    Just to throw around a possible line up based on some of the rumors:
    Kovy – Savard – Kessel
    Kuli – Grabs – Poni
    Torres – Hanson – Stalberg/Caputi/Armstrong
    Orr – Metropolit – Stalberg/Caputi/Armstrong

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  • flappypaddle
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  • TuckerThomas

    @ Jordan:
    The problem with burying Finger is that he is too good for the A and would play so well down there he would deserve the call up. That would put BB in a tough spot. How do you keep him down when he deserves to be playing in the NHL? Then re-entry waivers come into play. Finger isn’t a good candidate for burying. His contract isn’t so outrageous that it can be justified. BB is an honorable GM and he isn’t going to do that to Fings. He will sit/play like last year.

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  • tron

    I am pretty sure Finger said himself that he doesn’t want to be sitting in the stands and would rather be playing in the A.

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  • Cameron

    I think to really figure out where Burke is going, you have to look 2 seasons down the road, and the options that will, or should become available to him during that time. Ask yourself, what does Burke want this team to look like? Well in Anaheim he had a veteran top line of Kunitz, McDonald and Selanne, followed by a youthful 2nd line of Penner, Getzlaf and Perry. For his third line, he had “lunchbox” guys, but they were also very clever hockey players, and none of them had dominating size, in Moen, Pahlsson and Niedermayer. Finally, his 4th line a collection of veterans and tough guys, and cup experience, with Brad May, Todd Marchant and George Parros.
    -
    So, fill in the blanks with what we have now, and I think it becomes pretty clear what Burke will target. This is what I think he wants the team to look like for the 2012 season:
    -
    _______ – ______ – Kessel
    Stalberg – Kadri – _______
    Kulemin – Bozak – _______
    _______ – _______ – C.Orr
    -
    (Hanson)
    -
    So the way I see it, we have 7 of the 13 spots filled. The bottom line roles will be filled by whoever we have (Sjostrom, Mitchell, DiDomenico) that can fill that role during the season, but if we are ever playoff bound, Burke will go out and trade minimal assets for quality old veterans. Now, that 3rd line right winger slot I believe he has a certain 2011 UFA he wants to land. In my mind, the addition of Backes to a Kulemin-Bozak line would make for a fearsome, intelligent checking line that would rival pretty much anyone elses. Great mix of size, aggression, and hockey smarts.
    -
    So that leaves us with the top six. I firmly believe that Burke has asked for wingers in return in for Kaberle because he thinks next summer is our chance to land a big center. Be it Thornton or Richards via free agency, Carter by trade or offer-sheet, or, I don’t want to start it up again, but Stamkos by the total idiocy of the Lightning franchise. Burke will land us a big center next summer. Also, this year we have Grabo, and we want to get Kadri and Bozak fully acclimatized to the NHL.
    -
    So what is Burke looking to do? He’s looking to fill in that top line left wing spot with a big body like Ryane Clowe, Ryan Malone, or Dustin Byfuglien. I gotta think that Clowe would be his first option, but I just think he’ll be so much more expensive than the other two. And then of course, he’s lookng to find a star young winger to play with Kadri and Stalberg on the 2nd line. So he needs to find a star winger, and a big-bodied winger this summer, and sign a star center and Backes next summer.
    -
    What does this have to do with trade discussion that we haven’t already covered. Well, I just think when you project the team this way, you can see that Burke likely won’t be targetting anyone like Malhotra, or Ponikarovsky, or possibly even Armstrong. All of those contracts would ultimately prevent us from going big dollars on a center next summer. And if the long-term plan is indeed as I think it is, to have Bozak be the heart-and-sould David Bolland-esque center of the team, then we don’t need those guys. This also explains why Burke said he was going to have to do another year of 9 and 3.

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  • TuckerThomas
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  • flappypaddle
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  • Charlie
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  • Cameron

    @ TuckerThomas:
    -
    He didn’t sign Finger though, and there really isn’t a spot for him on the roster. He legitimately can’t make our club because we’ll for sure have 6 defensemen that are better than him. So you send him down to the A, it’s not like he’ll never play for us again. Any time Phaneuf, Komisarek, Beauchemin or any free agents we sign on defense (possibly Paul Martin) get injured, Finger would be the first call-up, and he wouldn’t have to clear waivers because of the injury. Any time Schenn, Gunnarsson, or whoever we get to be the 7th guy (VanRyn maybe) gets injured, Holzer, Aulie and MIkus get the call base don performance. There’s always a tone of injuries on defense, so he’ll get his time in the NHL. Then Burke will deal him in the last year of his contract for some wasted cap space he can throw on the Marlies in his place.
    -
    But yea, Finger doesn’t care. The guy played his whole life in the A. He signed this deal to make money and live comfortably the rest of his life. He seems to me to be the type of guy to realize how lucky he is to be making a fucking boatload of cash.

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  • BeLeafer

    @ Jordan:
    we don’t need Pony back……

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  • Cameron

    @ Charlie:
    -
    Still, they are clearly trying to dump salary if they’re moving Sopel who was their 4th defensemen. Would they really object to us dealing with Huet for them so long as we get the players we want and still give them what they asked for?

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  • Cactus

    @ flappypaddle:
    Do you want me to whip out Hanson`s stats? He was basically a more effective version of Primeau. He was our best faceoff man at almost 56% and had a lot of hits as well. He will not be on the Marlies next season. He is a quality third or fourth liner who has shown that he can move up for 2nd line spot duty, play on the PK, and win important faceoffs.

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  • rpearce76

    @ flappypaddle:
    If Kadri can beat out Grabs for the 2nd line spot then let’s put him in. Otherwise I think the best spot for him to start the year is the Marlies. Burke made Ryan spend a year in the A and he was a 2nd overall pick… Yeah the situation may be different here when you compare the depth of our team to the ducks at that time but I believe the philosophy is the same. You aren’t going to take a guy who was #1 on his team and let him play 7-10 mins a game on the 3rd or 4th line. Hanson on the other hand is most likely suited to be a 3rd or 4th line player and I think showed potential to be solid in that role. Plus he is cheap. If he isn’t cutting it then that spot could be filled by a Marlies call-up or a low level trade.

    There is also Brayden Irwin to consider. Not sure where he fits in the mix. Ideally there will be big competition amongst the young guys for only a few spots. I would hope that not all of them get starting spots on the team unless they can beat out decent players to earn those roster spots.

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  • GiuseppeM

    I said this in the Kaberle Pool thread, but it needs to be said again….The BIG deal will be with Edmonton, multi -player..we get more talent as we take an ugly contract or 2.

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  • flappypaddle
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  • Cameron

    @ flappypaddle:
    -
    Hanson did really well for us. Just because he didn’t put up points doesn’t mean much. He was solid defensively, he hit, and made simple plays. He was only a minus 2 through 31 games, which is pretty impressive for a rookie. I’d be willing to have him on the team to see if he can keep going what he started with the Habs.
    -
    I find all the Stalberg, Hanson, Mitchell, Kulemin hate to be kind of hysterical, and also massively hypocritical. Last year, we wanted to see them play so bad, and everyone said they could live with the headaches of seeing rookies develop because at least they’d be trying their best and so on. Now you all want to get Torres, Armstrong, Malhotra, and Ponikarovsky to take their spots. Gee I can’t wait to be right back where we started in two years.
    -
    How about we actually just let Ron Wilson develop the team? He did produce a playoff pace team with the players he has now. Why not compliment them rather than dump them?

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  • ionsys

    @ BeLeafer:

    just an observation—

    we lost the last playoff berth in 09 right in the first 10 games of the season, and could not recover

    during that horrendous october stretch, we had no kessel, no bozak, no kadri and no captain rah rah—-as well as playing a terrible goalie in tosk

    all of which implies–to me anyway– we ‘should’ make the playoffs this year even if burke totally strikes out next 2 weeks

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  • GordonBombay
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  • flappypaddle
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  • Charlie
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  • TuckerThomas

    @ Cameron:
    Disagree. He’s a competitor who has devoted his whole life to doing something he loves more than anything. I highly doubt that deep down inside he wants to be in minors. You make him sound like a nice guy who’s a loser. The guy is an NHL’er all the way. Hits like a machine and one of the best at blocking shots in the league. He is overpaid but come on man….

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  • Charlie
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  • BeLeafer

    @ ionsys:
    exactly.. even the team we have now can compete, but Burke won’t strike out.. he’ll will bring in a solid player(s) via the Kaberle trade and sign a couple key peices in Free agency. I’m very confident the team that wil arrive in camp come September will be a young, talented and hungry team…..
    Burke is on a mission and will get this done..

    we’re all excited here, I have no clue where Kabs is going… but what we do know know is that Kaberle is the best piece out there (outside of Free agency) and teams are retoolilng.. I’m positive Burke is going to make this happen

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  • rpearce76

    @ Cameron:
    I don’t want to just hand all of the young guys jobs though. Also, I’m not sure where some of them fit in. Is Stalberg a 2nd line player or a 3rd liner? Where is Caputi best suited? I think Hanson is for sure a bottom 6 guy and that is why I plugged him in the line up I made.

    If Caputi and/or Stalberg make the team in the top 6 I’d let them stay. Otherwise I’d let them season a little bit in the A. The idea would be that they are developing into top 6 players by playing top 6 roles with the Marlies, not checking and trying to shut down guys on our 3rd or 4th line. Any of the guys I proposed to sign – Armstrong, Torres, Metro would be 1-2 year term at most.

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