What to Expect in 2010-11: Kris Versteeg
Kris Versteeg has undoubtedly been the prize pick up for the Maple Leafs thus far this offseason. You’ve heard all the basics by now. He’s great in the dressing room, he plays all three forward positions, he produces under pressure and he’s a back-to-back 20 goal scorer. At age 24, these are all impressive qualities, but now the real question is: how he will fare in the Maple Leafs’ system?
The Blackhawks were absolutely stacked in 2009-10, with a ton of prime talent in their top 6. Hossa was recovering from surgery at the beginning of the season though, which lead to Versteeg playing more than a handful of games in a top line role. Nevertheless, this was short lived and Versteeg was bumped down to the third line when Hossa returned. So who did he play with this season? According to the linemate stats at DobberHockey.com, his top 2 line combos in terms of a percentage of his ice time at 5-on-5 were:
17.47%: Dustin Byfuglien – John Madden – Kris Versteeg
11.01%: Andrew Ladd – John Madden – Kris Versteeg
The next highest line combo is a measly 5.05%, so these two combos are the lines he primarily played on at even strength. So how do Byfuglien, Madden and Ladd measure up in comparison to Versteeg’s 20 goals and 44 points? Ladd is the best with 17 goals and 38 points. Byfuglien had the same number of goals, but four less assists for 34 points. Madden is nearing the end of his career and could only manage 10 goals and 23 points this season. Versteeg’s stats are better than all three, but they don’t necessarily jump out at you.
There are a few stats to help gauge the worth of a player in relation to his teammates. Quality of Teammates (QoT) and Quality of Competition (QoC) are deduced by looking at a single player’s On-ice/off-ice +/- (that is, the +/- when you’re on the ice and the +/- of your teammates when you’re on the bench) and comparing it to either their linemates or their competition when on the ice. Versteeg’s QoC was 0.003 (this and future stats are located at BehindtheNet.ca), which basically means that when he’s on the ice, he’s facing competition of roughly his own skill level. Where things get interesting is in looking at his QoT, which is -0.230. If you’re unsure of what that number means, allow me to simplify it for you. It was the worst QoT stat on the Chicago Blackhawks. This correlates to weaker linemates that would be unable to play up to the level of Versteeg.
As I outlined above, Versteeg played more than a few games with higher amounts of ice time than a third liner would typically get. Here is a breakdown of the number of games he played at differing ice time amounts in minutes and his stats therein:
00:00-12:59: 7GP, 1G, 1A, 2PTS
13:00-14:59: 25GP, 3G, 4A, 7PTS
15:00-16:59: 23GP, 6G, 4A, 10PTS
17:00+: 24GP, 10G, 14A, 24PTS
Let’s stretch each of these out to a full 82 game schedule:
00:00-12:59: 82GP, 11G, 11A, 22PTS
13:00-14:59: 82GP, 10G, 13A, 23PTS
15:00-16:59: 82GP, 21G, 14A, 35PTS
17:00+: 82GP, 34G, 47A, 81PTS
So if Versteeg had taken Hossa’s spot on the top line and stayed there the entire season, he could be expected to produce numbers similar to these. The line of thinking here is that Versteeg will be getting between 15 and 20 minutes of ice time day in, day out on this Leafs roster. The difference between the two situations is that of course Bozak/Kadri should not be expected to play the role of Jonathan Toews at this point in their careers. What these stats instead indicate is that Versteeg should at the very least be expected to remain a 20 goal scorer with increased ice time on a lesser team, if not slightly surpass his previous highs.
We’ve now established that Versteeg should be a good offensive weapon for the Maple Leafs for the time being. Now let’s take a look at what can be expected of him on the defensive side of the game during 5-on-5 play. Chicago scored an average of 2.60 goals per 60 minutes while being scored on 2.41 in the same span when Kris Versteeg was on the ice. This leads to a +0.19 for his +/-ON/60. In contrast, Chicago scored 2.77 times per 60 minutes while suffering 2.27 goals against when Versteeg was on the bench. This +0.49 +/-OFF/60 suggests that Versteeg was worse offensively and defensively than his team without him, but the stats are never that simple.
All three of Versteeg’s prominent linemates had a worse +/-OFF/60 than him. Madden lead the charge at +0.75, which was good for worst on the team among players who played more than 15 games. Byfuglien is second worst at +0.72, while Ladd fared a tad better at +0.54. The story remains the same for +/-ON/60. Ladd’s was again only slightly worse at +0.17. Byfuglien took over the worst spot this time at -0.28, while second worst Madden was a -0.24. So these defensive stats are actually fairly good for Versteeg in comparison to the linemates he played with.
Versteeg has been hyped by the Maple Leafs as a fantastic penalty killer in addition to his offensive contribution. Blocking shots is something Versteeg should not be expected to do, however. Versteeg blocked a measly 19 shots in 2009-10, while having 51 of his own shots blocked by the opposition. On the penalty kill, Versteeg’s +/-ON/60 comes out to -0.77, which sounds bad when you don’t realize that it’s actually fifth best on the team behind Byfuglien, Kane, Toews and Campbell. All in all, Versteeg’s defensive play is not a stand out portion of his game, but it will certainly be an upgrade on the horrendous defensive effort of the 2009-10 Maple Leafs.
Versteeg will likely be bounced around the top 2 lines throughout the 2010-11 season with the Maple Leafs. What we should be expecting from Kris is a consistent effort on defence, especially on the penalty kill while potting 20-25 goals in the opposition’s net. If the Maple Leafs are going to make the playoffs next season, Versteeg will need to continue playing the great hockey he played in Chicago.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:36 pm
mitch92 wrote:
Please don’t even mention Semin, it makes me sick. He is a terrible, wimpy, one-dimensional player. He isn’t consistent, he doesn’t score in playoffs or big games, takes bad penalties, doesn’t play a lick of defense, terrible attitude. Don’t even talk about him becoming a Leaf.
When a player has to be sued to come play for a team, you know somethings wrong.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:39 pm
Hey fellas, sorry about this, I haven’t commented in awhile but…… I’m trying to plug a book, some of the profits go to The Wounded Warriors Fund. I don’t Care if you don’t agree with what’s going on in Afghan, but we poured alot into this book, and we left a lot of ourself’s “Over There”. If you can find in your heart’s, drop a couple of bucks, at least it’ll help the boys coming home that were injured.
http://23fieldsquadron.ca/23_Field_Squadron/Home.html
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:47 pm
CbtSpr wrote:
Looks like a good book and a good cause.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:49 pm
@ gunner_36:
thanks, if you want to learn a little about a soldiers way of thinking, it’s pretty good
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:49 pm
@CbtSpr
Where can you buy it?
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:54 pm
@ gunner_36:
on line from the site.
July 23rd, 2010 at 10:55 pm
To Toronto: Scottie Upshall
To Buffalo: Tomas Kaberle
To Phoenix: Derek Roy
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Toronto gets what they want for Kaberle, a top-6 forward. Upshall is 26, just getting into his prime, can play both wings, and proved with Phoenix that he can put up good number when given top-6 ice-time. He pro-rated to over 30 goals last year.
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Buffalo gets the puck-moving defenseman they have needed for quite some time. He’d also be a good veteran presence for the young Tyler Meyers, and would most-likely sign an extension in Buffalo, seeing as he wouldn’t even have to move from his Toronto home. Tyler Ennis is a natural centerman, and can take over for Roy.
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Phoenix needs to fill the gap left by Lombardi, and Roy would be a great fit on the top line beside Shane Doan. They have enough wingers capable of filling out their top-6, so Upshall, although a good player, isn’t as valuable to them as Roy.
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I love three-way deals. So fun.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:03 pm
DefenseWinsChampionships wrote:
How about a 4 or 5 way deal, ha ha ha. This deal is solid. But, I don’t know if Upshall is enough return for Kabby. And you said it yourself-Roy is more valuable than Upshall. The Toronto/Buf part is fair, but Phoenix will have to fork over more than just Upshall. At the very least a pick or two. I’m not sure, maybe Brett MacLean? Winger with tons of goals-scoring potential. Doing well in the AHL.
Anyone else with any suggestions???
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:17 pm
@ gunner_36:
What you say about Semin is a classic example of someone who listens to the media. He couldnt catch a break this year in the playoffs, other then that he is a special player (lol pierre). He really is though, watch highlights of him scoring. Hes like an older Kessel. I hate him with a passion but hes a top 15 hockey player in the league. Scored as much as Kovalchuk did this year and makes 6 mil and is very defensive minded. I wouldd kill to have him here
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:18 pm
@ DefenseWinsChampionships:
Upshall isnt worth Kaberle. He was traded for Carcillo last year lol
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:37 pm
Jordan wrote:
Sure he’s got a good shot and good puck skills, but he doesn’t have that compete level that we need. He dissapears, and seems to play for the name on the back instead of the one on the front. Why pay 6 mil or more to a guy that may score 40, but be a minus player and take bad penalties. You can’t go on stats alone, or else Poni is a good player.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 pm
@ gunner_36:
man he doesnt disappear, you listening to the stupid loving canadian media. Hes a beast, and minus player? LOL he was a +36 this year. Hes an amazing player all around. I hate him alot, but its true
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Semin is about the last guy in the league I would sign or trade for, excluding Carcillo, Avery, and Wallin (Rickard, not Niclas).
He’s also rumoured to be a nightmare for coaches and players. Trust me, it’s not worth it to go after him. There’s a reason Washington can’t go deep in the playoffs and it’s because of guys like this and Ovi.
Plus we might have to sue him to get hi
to play for us ha ha ha
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:45 pm
@ gunner_36:
well they are built with all russians. We arnt. If we plugged him into our lineup we would be a playoff team for sure with his 40 goals and 85+PTS. I agree you cant go all the way with him, but getting half way is a start, and we are building with guys who we need to do the rest. Outside of Kessel our scoing is pretty average right now.
Burke is gonna make a big splash before the year, everyone knows it. Semin, Ryan, Clowe, whoever but its gonna happen. He might have to give up too much but its going down!
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:47 pm
Jordan wrote:
Have you seen him fight? Have you seen him in other years. Have you noticed he’s always on some sort of streak?
I think you’ve been listening too much to guys like Pierre. Semin and the entire Caps team are over-hyped
and they will not win the stanley Cup because they are a bunch of one dimensional guys. They prefer the looks of the play over the play itself. Look at Semin- if he didn’t try to go bar down every time he wouldn’t miss as much. Most goals go in down low (5 hole).
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:50 pm
Jordan wrote:
Russian players are way over-hyped. Show me anything they’ve done since they were the Soviets (aside from Fedorov and Datsyuk). They would prefer a pretty than a grind it out play that actually works. And Semin and all of the Russians are puck hogs. And I don’t like Cherry.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:53 pm
@Jordan
We wouldn’t have been a playoff team. Burke would’ve shipped him outta here after Semin woulve started whining to Wilson about things not going his way. He would’ve become the laughingstock of Leafs nation. He would’ve fled to the KHL.
Check out his fight on Youtube and tell me you want this guy on our team.
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:57 pm
Plus the only reason he got 85 pts is Washingtons style: score as many times as you can and hope it’s more than the other team. Sorry goalie- you’re on your own. Plus he was playing with a bunch of other good cherry-pickets that only worry about offense Cough*Ovechkin*Cough
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:58 pm
We dont need him to fight though. We would need him to score 40 goals and 85 pts. Kessel cant fight either but I love him. I agree with what your saying but man, I dont know very many people who could say with a straight face they wouldnt take himm on their team. He scores like Kovalchuk and is younger at the moment.
We would never get him though, so no use questioning really
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:59 pm
@ gunner_36:
I use to think that, but someone pointed out to me that he spent alot of time with Fleischmann as a center and Laich I think? I dunnoo, but I use to fucking hate him. But I did alot of research on his play and found out hes actually a very good player
July 24th, 2010 at 12:01 am
Yo Jordan, whats going on man.. its been awhile..
July 24th, 2010 at 12:02 am
None the less though, Im going to bed. Good chatting with you. I know I was a dick at first because I thought you were just another normal week long poster who didnt have a clue and just ran their mouth. I was wrong man keep on posting. We need as much brains as possible around here because the idiots are coming in packs of 12
July 24th, 2010 at 12:03 am
@ The Shaker:
haha another guy I miss read. Im bad at that, but oh well, stick around, never have to many great fans
July 24th, 2010 at 4:09 am
I would love to have Semin on the Leafs. The last couple of years he’s more than a point a game player getting second line minutes. And, even though he didn’t score in the playoffs this year, he was probably their best player. This guy is a phenomenal talent. So what if he fight’s like a girl, you don’t want your top 6 players to fight anyway.
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If we could get Semin for Kabs, that’s a deal I would do, but I would rather get a younger guy…. Hodgeson + + would interest me too. But, I’ll say it again, keep Kabs and sign him to an extension.
July 24th, 2010 at 6:33 am
I won’t pretend to know the book on Semin. I don’t. I know he scored a lot of pts and had 40 goals last year. As a fan of a team who could have used 40 more goals I can’t see why we wouldn’t add a guy like this if given the opportunity.
Any arguments about him being one dimensional are useless since I fail to see more than one dimension of Kessel’s game, and we seem to like him.
July 24th, 2010 at 7:28 am
CbtSpr wrote:
Wow, it comes in a standard 9′ x 6′ 350 page layout, that must be one huge book!! I could see it being 9″ x 6″
Will definetly have to invest some money in this book to support the troops, should help pass the time at work on nightshifts
July 24th, 2010 at 8:58 am
wardus wrote:
Semin is the kind of player we just got rid of, but eith a bit more offensive flair and ability. If his teammate was being attacked chances are he wouldn’t help him. I know that we’ve got other guys that can do that, but do you really want a guy that can do that. I would prefer to keep good old Canadian guys that will do anything to win and have the heart of a champion.
It’s kind of like a really fast car without brakes that looks Mazing. Everyones amazed with how good it looks, and they talk about how fast it goes but forget it doesn’t have any brakes!!!! Plus the handling sucks because you can’t slow down, but people think becauseits so fast, it’s just an amazing car.
Just because Pieere and others say he is an awesome, complete player, doesn’tean anything. His points don’t tell the whole story and neither does plus minus. Washington plays teams like Arlanta, Florida, Carolina, and TB, and rack up the goals and the plus against them. Last year, only in the regular season, they did a good job of outscoring, but it doesn’t work in the playoffs.
And people talk about Ovechkin being the best, and being a complete player. But what part of cherry-picking at the other teams blueline, slowly skating back, taking bad penalties and taking long shifts is Complete????? Coaches always say: I Dont Care If The Guy Scores 50 Goals, If He Doesnt Play Defense, He Wont Have A Spot On The NHL Team. But people just look past this on Ovechkin and Semin. That’s why I feel Crosby and Toews are much better players.
And Semin and Ovechkin (and Kovy) are very predictable. Come down the wing, cut to the middle and fire a rising shot between the D-mans legs. Montreal figured this out and that’s one of the main reasons they won. Ovechkin and Semins points will probably go down as people are figuring this out.
And why would you sign a guy to a big money, long-term contract if he’s not going to get you far in the playoffs.
And people are saying that they’re favourite players are Phaneuf, Schenn, Kadri, Armstrong, etc. These guys are all the good Canadian boys who play the all out, rough and tumble, heart of a champ, Beast style. WHY on earth WOULD ANYONE WANT SEMIN???????
July 24th, 2010 at 9:06 am
FLAWS: Can be intimidated and knocked off the puck. Could use more muscle on his 6-2 frame to continue to thrive at the NHL level. Needs to better utilize his linemates and work on his defense.
@rpearce76
I’m not the biggest Kessel fan. I never wanted him. Now that he’s here Ill cheer for him, but I would’ve much preferred a decent two-way threat. Cough*Seguin*Cough.
July 24th, 2010 at 9:09 am
@rpearce76
Personally I would trade Kessel, but I know that’s NOT happening, so I haven’t ev
en suggested it. Kessel getting traded by BB is as likely as Washington drinking fro
Lord Stanleys Mug ha ha ha!
July 24th, 2010 at 9:23 am
gunner_36 wrote:
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I won’t debate that Crosby and Toews are far better than Semin… they are. But there is no way we are going to be able to add either of them or anyone like them via trade. The best we can hope for is Kadri to develop into someone like that.
July 24th, 2010 at 10:01 am
Jordan wrote:
Agree that Semin would be an amazing addition, a couple of seasons ago he had 79 points in 62 games…Yes he played a bit with Ovy but not as much as people think (Knuble) not to mention that Semin plays some decent PK minutes too. Dynamic, dangerous and an effective player, something we need in our top 6 if we’re going to contend in the near future.
July 24th, 2010 at 10:28 am
I’m against Jordan on this one.
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Semin does not have the character or work ethic required to win anything that matters. He’ll help in the regular season, no doubt… but when it comes to clutch time… everyone will be very disappointed.
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And no it has nothing to do with listening to the media.
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Would depend on the deal for him. I wouldn’t want to give up anything significant…
July 24th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Jordan wrote:
Haha he does have more value now though because he put up more points in Phoenix. He was a fourth-liner in Philly
July 25th, 2010 at 8:54 am
danvertising wrote:
I agree with you, but I wouldn’t trade Finger for him.