Player Projections + Opening Night Preview

by on October 6, 2010 in 2010-11 Season - 51 Comments

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If the Toronto Maple Leafs wish to avoid another eight-game losing streak to open its regular season, it’s vital the players don’t let last season’s collapse linger in the back of their minds—that’s especially important for Mike Komisarek considering the Leafs open the season against the Montreal Canadiens.

Luckily for the Leafs, the odds seem to be in their favor with Michael Cammalleri out of the line-up due to a one-game suspension, as well as Andrei Markov, who continues to nurse his right knee. It also helps the Leafs have several new faces in the opening night line-up, including Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf and Jean-Sebastien Giguere. That said, the Canadiens have plenty of firepower upfront to temporarily fill the void. With P.K. Subban, Lars Eller and even Carey Price eager to display their skills, it’d be foolish to underestimate the long-time rivals. After all, the Leafs are a testimony to the capabilities of undervalued and desperate hockey players.

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline from the Leafs’ standpoint is that of Komisarek. The rearguard enters his second campaign with the Leafs hoping to solidify his role as a reliable defensive defenseman who can lay some bone-crushing hits and block shots. Nothing more, nothing less. Last season he simply tried too hard and exited his comfort zone, which resulted in frequent turnovers and needless penalties. He set the tone on opening night last season with five minor penalties, and the Canadiens capitalized on two of those. If the Leafs, or Komisarek, have any chance on starting the season on the right foot, discipline will need to be one of their strengths, especially with the “truculence first, ask questions later” attitude Burke hopes to instill.

The first powerplay unit of Kris Versteeg, Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel, Tomas Kaberle and Dion Phaneuf look to continue its dominance from the pre-season, and it’ll be interesting to see if Phaneuf  will continue to screen the goaltender. Plenty of options with Phaneuf’s point shot, Kessel from the left circle or Versteeg’s excellent vision and puck control to create some space. If the Leafs are to make any progress in the Eastern Conference standings, the special teams must improve on last season’ abysmal statistics.

And if there’s any readers who happen to be attending the opening-night game, be sure to make Price feel right at home by unleashing the boo birds. If the Leafs can get at him early, his confidence could get shaken. I know I’d be giddy like a schoolgirl watching the Leafs dominate its number one rival. And hey, maybe Komisarek can even chip-in a goal or two!

Anyway, considering the regular season is nearly 30 hours away, here’s my point projections of the Leafs’ key players—as I’m sure you don’t care about bottom-six predictions.

Note—all predictions based on 82 games.

Kris Versteeg: 23 goals, 56 points

Tyler Bozak: 18 G, 52 PTS

Phil Kessel: 36 G, 69 PTS

Nikolai Kulemin: 21 G, 48 PTS

Mikhail Grabovski: 16 G, 51 PTS

Clarke MacArthur: 21 G, 46 PTS

Tomas Kaberle: 8 G, 52 PTS

Dion Phaneuf: 15 G, 49 PTS

Francois Beauchemin: 10 G, 32 PTS

You stay classy, MLHS.

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  • long_suffering_leaf_fan

    TuckerThomas wrote:

    Kaberle also ranked 1st among NHL d-men last year with 1278 faked shots.

    Someone else on our team lead a category last year … it was Grabovski, he lead the league in the “falling on your ass” category averaging 3.2 ass falls a game.

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  • Ensign

    Interesting stats about Kabs…and RW’s reasoning makes some sense. With Dion screening the goalie I’m expecting that Kabs will take more shots and that will produce points. Didn’t he win most accurate shot at the all star tournament two years ago?

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  • Burtonboy
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  • luke

    Anyone else going to the game?

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  • long_suffering_leaf_fan
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  • Jordan

    Just want to remind everyone to get pumped up about a FULLLLLL roster tomorrow night.
    Quick note I said before but some might have missed. With both Grabovski and Kessel healthy last year after that HORRIBLE start, we were on a 95-100PTS pace over 82 games. Add in Bozak and a better Kulemin with Phaneuf and oh my I’m getting pumped.
    Best thing is, we will no longer wake up, eat cheerios (they rock) and come on her to ask the ever-so-asked question……”Is Gustavsson or Toskala starting tonight”. How refreshing!

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  • Ensign

    I’m pretty anxious to see what moves NJ does today to squeeze under the cap. They can’t seriously be considering going with a 20 person roster.

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  • DefenseWinsChampionships

    This is what the roster looks like right now heading into Thursday as far as I know from various comments and articles I’ve read across the internet:
    .
    Versteeg – Bozak – Kessel
    Kulemin – Grabovski – MacArther
    Sjostrom – Brent – Armstrong
    Brown – Mitchell – Orr
    Zigomanis
    .
    Phaneuf – Beauchemin
    Kaberle – Schenn
    Gunnarsson – Komisarek
    Lebda (IJ), Lashoff (IJ), Finger
    .
    Gigeure
    Gustavsson
    .
    .
    .
    Maybe Zigo plays over Mitchell, but other thatn that, the only change will probably be Lashoff being sent down. In case you missed it late last night, this: http://www.640toronto.com/Blogs/EatSleepLeafs/BlogEntry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10148615 shows that Wilson is likely to use the D pairings I put in the line-up.
    .
    And Hanson is definitely unhealthy, missing practice yesterday due to illness. There have also been mentions of him having a minor injury.

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  • drock24

    Great write-up; the only differences I would really see in your point predictions is that I think Grabovski nets at least 20; and Versteeg scores closer to 30. Also; I see Phil Kessel scoring closer to 80 points. Other than that, I think your expectations are reasonable; and I think that as Leafs fans, it’s exactly what we should look for.

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  • RJ
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  • canucksnaphook

    @ TuckerThomas:

    haha faked shots.

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  • Ensign
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  • RJ

    @ Ensign:
    Depends on who they run over. If they take out Elias and his 6 million and they call up some guy for 500k, then that gives them another 5.5 million in room.

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  • Ensign

    True.. its a delicate balance they’re in.

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  • reenergized

    One more sleep !

    And then we start the season off by destroying the smurfs … then welcome Ottawa with a beat down.

    I don’t think it gets better, start off 2-0 and set the tone for the year. Both of these teams will finish behind the leafs this year, As some of you are fond of saying … Book It!!

    that of course is just my opinion

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  • Dan hockey fan

    TuckerThomas wrote:

    I wonder who told RW about Kessel on the half boards being very predictable for the other teams PK. That was one of the most bitched about scenarios last season. Glad to see someone figured out that a PP needs to be creative and unpredictable with multiple options and set plays.

    Like you say many fans have been bitchin about Leafs standing around and passing the puck around the outside. Wilson should be able to see trends within a couple of games and adapt. A competent NHL coach should see things ahead of fans. Wilson stayed with an unproductive PP far too long. Phaneuf saw that we needed a big body in front of the net and complaining got him nowhere. He probably went to the front on his own. Wilson said they had no time to work on the PP during preseason because of all the bodies in camp. What you saw was the players improvising, as to how they think the PP should work. Wilson gets no credit. He finally, after seeing the PP work is saying we are doing things different. Where was Wilson last year? I hope the PK’s figure it out too and don’t wait for Wilson. Wilson could have the 30th PP and PK and still defend it and not make changes. Wait that already happened.

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  • rustynail

    TSNBobMcKenzie

    All players who were on waivers yesterday have cleared. Toronto puts Lashoff on waivers; Fla puts Paetsch on waivers. That is all. Quiet day

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  • NewfieDave

    Shit, According to TSN, Carey Price has the Flu & didn’t practice today and may not start tomorrow night. I was looking forward to the booing and shell shocking!

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  • Bring the Cup Home

    man, sheldon souray and wade redden in the AHL, yet we still carry Jeff Finger up here with his contract. Come on Burke. I guess he’ll do it when he absolutely needs to.

    Crazy that Souray and Redden are riding the bus. Wow, what a weird thing. Bet that will change the next time they make a new collective bargaining agreement. Can’t imagine the players are too happy about that.

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  • PH_KESSEL_IL

    kessel sould get at least 35 or could possibly get 40+ an 70+ points and i think kulemin can reach 60-70 pts by how he played in the preseason

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  • mitch92

    I think Kessel will flirt with 50 goals this season and 80 points. Verbeauty will top 25 goals and 55 points. Bozak will score 20 goals and could approach 40 assists. Kulemin will score 28 goals and chip in 30 assists. Grabbo could score 25 goals and top 50 points if he stays healthy. MacArthur could chip in 15 goals this year if he stays in our top six. Our defense will also contribute offensively night in and night out. Kaberle is a guaranteed 30+ assist machine who could pot 10 goals too. Dion will score at least 15 time with 25 assists. Luke will likely score around 8 goals with 15 assists. Giggy will get 3 assists! Yes, I have my Blue and White goggles locked firmly in place today!!! Let’s just grease up the wheels and get this machine rolling!!!!!!!!!

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  • mitch92
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