State of the Nation: Skaters

by on December 15, 2010 in 2010-11 Season, Analysis - 128 Comments

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(Toronto – Gus Katsaros) I tried to put together something that leads to the state of the Leafs, but it gets pretty intense and too much for a single blog so I’ve broken it down in two. Before we move forward we should acknowledge what is happening with the current club and I do that with just some observations.

I’ve broken down what I feel are some of the more important points of the Leafs forwards and defensemen while not being entirely thorough, leaving something for future blogs. I’ll follow this up on Friday tying in the coaching, the Burke regime and vision of the team in the future.

Forwards:

  • Forwards lack size .. too small and not strong enough to compete along the walls and dirty areas .. feel their just too soft to compete physically despite the illusion of ‘truculence’ with the likes of Colton Orr and Mike Brown .. there’s not enough body in the offensive zone and not enough of a net presence – fighting in the dirty areas in front of the goal, both at even strength and the PP
  • Offensive zone cycle is non-existent, a slight derivative of the lack of size up front .. even when they do begin the cycle, it breaks down once that first forward is taken out of position or hit along the boards .. every team has to have the ability to cycle and to keep momentum, especially down low (e.g. Sundin/Antropov/Ponikarovsky were cycling beasts)
  • Leafs were winning a lot of the board battles, races to loose pucks and provided excellent support positions when hopped up on adrenaline to begin the season but stopped the small sacrifices that earned them wins .. soon they turned their back to the puck, not finishing checks not providing enough forechecking pressure to hurry opposition defense, it was too easy to move the puck up the ice the other way .. along these lines, I’ve gained a new appreciation for the forechecking efforts and smarts of Kris Versteeg .. hits a higher gear in pursuit especially when in close range, hurrying puck carriers and forcing races .. Colby Armstrong isn’t as refined here, and it shows in his return from injury
  • Leafs offense is based off the rush, getting shots to the net and following up with net presence for rebounds. This features a stop-dead play unless there is a rebound or the shot is fired wide .. too many times the play is blown dead with a goalie covering up or, alternatively, the puck ends up going the other way and forwards are now caught trying to catch back up with the play instead of in support positions.
  • Nazem Kadri should spend more time in the AHL at some point. He hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive, but I think he deserves more credit than he generally gets for what he was when he was recalled to his NHL audition. Early struggles with the Marlies and adapting to the speed of the game were clear issues, but he’s overcome some of the mindset that permeated through him into mistakes. Mainly, he’s improved in both one-touch skills and reading/reacting to the play quicker. He seems better suited for the structured NHL game to the less system-oriented AHL. Warts aside, there is something bubbling within and it’s slowly festering into something better and I like where it’s heading.
  • Leafs forwards – aside from Phil Kessel – could very well be the NHL’s most miscast group up front. Tyler Bozak was penciled in as the number one center with number two potential and high expectations to lead the main sniper. Mikhail Grabovski and Bozak should ideally be fighting for that second line center and there’s a size issue down the middle that needs to be addressed. Armstrong, another support player is being thrust into a top-six role due to necessity .. Versteeg is a hybrid second line center that can play a grinding role and kill penalties. Nik Kulemin is progressing the fastest and best among the forwards. Kulemin is a very good individual creator, making plays out of nothing and really working hard to create turnovers. Clarke MacArthur, despite his early scoring outburst is inconsistent and remains on the perimeter to create plays when the courage isn’t peaking. The rest of the forwards are just filler. Brent, Mitchell, Brown, Orr etc, they all have roles but aren’t there to do anything than play five minutes of games

Defensemen

  • The defense is stretched between creating offense and being defensively responsible. The glaring deficiencies up front hurt the blueline who are forced to do more to help scoring, like excessive pinching and risks at the opposition blueline. The results are odd-man situations the other way and forwards caught deep not being able to make up the space – or, giving up on the play altogether.
  • I’ve considered the Leafs defense corps to be one of the better outlet passing bluelines in the NHL. Every member has a good transition pass from shallow in the zone and a long stretch pass, none better than Tomas Kaberle. However, as a unit, the Leafs do not move the puck out of the zone efficiently enough and there’s too much unnecessary East-West defensive zone passing instead of getting the puck moving North-South .. Komisarek and Beauchemin are constantly missing their intended targets and the only one seemingly progressing is Luke Schenn
  • Schenn has easily been the best blueliner in most games. He’s using his smarts to take better positions in defensive zone, despite the occasional coverage breakdown .. he’s also taken to using his stick to cover space and force players to either side .. his puck handling skills have also improved although still a work in progress .. pivots are improved, but not quicker, compensating with diligent body work and forcing players to fight through checks, no more clear space around him .. and he’s still not hit his peak.
  • Have to engage forwards standing in front of the goal more aggressively .. allow too much room in front and could be a lot more diligent in their coverage down low .. current lightning rod Mike Komisarek has been shaky all season, but the silver lining is the progression of Keith Aulie, who I believe is destined to be Komisarek’s replacement. Won’t be surprised to see him spend the rest of the season with the Marlies, and perhaps even next season, but he’ll eventually be that hard hitting, physical presence that moves bodies from in front.

Twitter: @KatsHockey
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  • Cactus
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  • DWC

    Stamkos is a franchise cornerstone, and possible a generational talent on the level of Crosby and Ovechkin. Odds are, none of the four 1st round picks would amount to a player of that level. It just almost never happens, especially considering Stamkos would keep this team out of the basement. And beyond the high chance a 1st/2nd overall pick has of becoming a superstar, the odds of getting a player even remotely close to that level are slim. 4 firsts for Stamkos would be a godsend for this team.

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  • M9
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  • B Leaf

    If you were going to get Staal, you would have to part with one of Kadri or Schenn, then you would have to part with one of Gunnarsson or Aulie, and then a first in 2012. Yes it is a steep price but when you consider what you are getting I would have to say yes. With Staal, Kessel, Grabovski, Kulemin, MacArthur, Versteeg, Armstrong, Brown, Bozak, Sjostrom, and Brent you have the makings of some decent line combos.
    If a couple of our goaltenders come through we could be in decent shape for a run in 2011.

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  • zoonpolitikon

    Ok, so here is a list of No.1/1a1b/capable top line centres. Who is realistically available, and for the one’s that are is it really worth giving up a lot for? Sure I would love Eric Staal or Jonathan Toews or Ryan Getzlaf, but are they actually available? A true No.1 centre is hard to find.

    -

    Getzlaf
    Little/Antrpov/Peverley
    Krejci/Savard/Bregeron
    Roy
    Stajan/Jokinen
    Staal
    Toews
    Stastny/Duchene
    Umberger/Brassard
    Richards
    Datsyuk
    Gagner
    Weiss
    Kopitar
    Koivu
    Plekanec
    Zajac
    O’Reilly
    Tavares
    Dubinsky
    Spezza
    Richards/Carter
    Belanger/Hanzal
    Crosby
    Thornton/Marleau/Pavelski
    McDonald
    Stamkos
    Sedin/Kesler
    Backstrom

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  • leafslunch

    DWC wrote:

    Stamkos is a franchise cornerstone, and possible a generational talent on the level of Crosby and Ovechkin. Odds are, none of the four 1st round picks would amount to a player of that level. It just almost never happens, especially considering Stamkos would keep this team out of the basement. And beyond the high chance a 1st/2nd overall pick has of becoming a superstar, the odds of getting a player even remotely close to that level are slim. 4 firsts for Stamkos would be a godsend for this team.

    Exactly my thoughts, only you did a better job of putting it to print.

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  • Omac13

    No way the Canes trade Staal PERIOD. They just gave him the C and basically said here this is your team now. The guy is one of them Franchise players and he is goin no where.

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  • Cactus

    @ M9:
    Yeah, I agree, but if he were on the block, a team like LA/Columbus/Toronto/Buffalo could easily make space for him. $8m wouldn’t have to go back because these teams are already 4-6m under the cap, and could easily make more space through trade, demotion, etc.
    .
    I don’t know, maybe I’m completely wrong, but I think that if Staal ever became available, a good number of teams will go hard for him and do what they have to in order to acquire him.

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  • Nights
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  • Cactus

    Omac13 wrote:

    No way the Canes trade Staal PERIOD. They just gave him the C and basically said here this is your team now. The guy is one of them Franchise players and he is goin no where.

    Exactly. I can’t see him ever being dangled, especially for such a low price.

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  • Omac13

    @ Nights:
    .
    But yes, if we would offer sheet Stamkos, no way in hell, no matter the ownership/money issues, does TB not match it. Sorry.

    Realy? Tamap could afford to take on Stamkos if you Offered him something like 10 years at 8.2 Cap hit per season? Crosby and OV money?

    They could fit that with Vinnys, st louis, Headman(due for a raise) Ohland, Malone, just to name a few they could fit that under the cap?

    I dont think so

    Yeah they could trade some people. VINNY is going no where, St louis is the guy they want playing with Stamkos so he goes no where, Headman possible but hes your stud on the back end. Ohland and Malone i guess could be moved but your realying thinning your team out to add one guy

    Stamkos at 8.2 i dont think they could match and the Leafs give up 4 first rounders. I KNOW I KNOW but realy its STAMKOS

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  • Cameron

    So, despite all the complaining about Burke trading two 1st round picks for Kessel, most people would dump Kadri, 1st in 2012, plus to land Eric Staal or Steven Stamkos. Very interesting. I would do it as well, I just don’t know if we can fully fathom just how insane the criticism would be. Remember, even if we acquired Staal, Malkin or Stamkos, the media would IMMEDIATELY change their tune about that player. Staal would become the most overpaid center in the league, and his consistency issues would be brought under the microscope. Malkin would be just a Russian who benefitted from Crosby’s greatness. Stamkos would be a one year wonder who needs St.Louis to make him effective. It sounds great now, but the media shitstorm that would erupt would be bad.
    -
    Remember, Phaneuf has scored more goals than any other defensemen since the lockout, and was considered to be an elite defender less than one year ago. Now most think of him as an overpaid nuisance who’s leadership doesn’t quite stack up to his paycheck. How easily the masses are swayed. Would it be any different with one of these truly elite guys like Staal, Malkin or Stamkos? I’m not so sure.

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  • leafslunch
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  • Punjab Bud

    I would love having stall but we have to remember that the penguins could get better returns from a lot of other teams than the leafs…..I would not mind giving up a first rounder for a star but he would have to be a pretty big star. I support the kessel trade but I do wonder what burke would have got if he offered up all those picks to other teams..

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  • Cameron

    @ Punjab Bud:
    -
    We were talking about Eric Staal. Jordan Staal is a 2nd line center.

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  • Nights

    leafslunch wrote:

    Until recently, Stamkos WAS on par with Crosby in the goal scoring department. Things have obviously slipped a little bit, but he was on par. Do you really believe that Stamkos will never EVER be better than Malkin or Ovechkin? And if not, could you elaborate what would be holding Steve back?
    .
    I think Stamkos has already established himself a better athlete than Malkin, and probably Ovechkin too. Would be hard to topple Crosby from his peak, but I would not suggest that he will never EVER even play on par with Crosby from time to time.

    How about this… VIncent LEcavalier had a streak of like 40 points in 20 games – like Stamkos had – about 2 years ago. Is Vinny L on par with Crosby? Don’t think so. Fine, Crosby just now is getting that same streak. But, unlike Crosby, Stamkos and Vinny L played with St. Louis. Crosby’s playing with Dupuis (3rd/4th line plug) and Kunitz (marginal 2nd line center).
    .
    Malkin’s seriously been forgotten. In a year where Ovechkin scored 60 goals, who won the Art Ross? Mr. Malkin with 116 points. And then he put up 36 points in 24 games. Gretzky holes the record in playoff points with 40. And Malkin was essentially silent in one of those series (had like 5 points in one of them).
    .
    I don’t have to elaborate on Ovechkin’s sucess already. As I said, Stamkos is a great player. Always will be up there. Some years, he might get the ross/ Richard away from those three. But when those three hit 26-27, they should be getting in the 140+. Stamkos will hover around 120 perhaps. Malkin doesn’t even play with Crosby half the time. That’s scary.
    .
    Either way, that’s my opinion. Once we get nearer to the end of the year, we’ll have a better idea. But Stamkos’s hot run is to be taken in perspective (for that matter, so is Crosby’s, but let’s see when this one stops 1st…). Stamkos has 44 points. St. Louis has 37. Crosby has 54. 2nd behind him? Letang with 27. Defenceman whom Crosby DOUBLES in points.
    .
    Malkin’s been injured most of last year and this year (he came back with 2 goals yesturday). Once Pittsburgh get some of those wingers from the minors to develop (Tangradi, Bennett, Kuenkachl (sp??), Jeffry), watch out for the killer Pens.

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  • Cameron

    @ Nights:
    -
    I hope that Malkin continues to be sort of half-hearted in his role in Pittsburgh, and that they consider trading him. He always does better when they have to depend on him. so move him somewhere he needs to be counted on. I would love to put Malkin on this team. He would be my top choice for center I think.

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  • leafslunch

    @ Nights:
    Yeah, I get you. Crosby does always play with a kind of ‘spare parts’ line. I’m not doubting how ridiculous the man is. But if Lecavalier put up 40 points in 20 games, I indeed would say that he’s on par with Crosby, because production like that is just unreal. Needless to say he would be playing WAY ABOVE his potential, to get on par with Sid, and would come down eventually, but he would be on par.

    But anyways, yada yada yada, besides the point, I just think that Stamkos (if not already) should be considered one of the brightest young stars in the game – debatable generational talent, that will at times produce on par with Crosby.

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  • leafslunch

    Cameron wrote:

    @ Nights:
    I would love to put Malkin on this team. He would be my top choice for center I think.

    Cameron would you rather have Malkin over Stamkos? Forget the logistics.

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  • DWC
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  • Cameron

    @ leafslunch:
    -
    It’s a real tough call, because Stamkos would bleed blue and white and be a real guts and glory player for us, and of course, he’s younger, and Canadian. It’s a match made in heaven. However, our current team would work really with Malkin with us establishing a nice Russian portion of our core. Obviously I would take either, but I don’t know…I can’t decide.

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  • leafslunch
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  • MacInMoscow
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  • leafslunch

    @ MacInMoscow:
    Entry level contract expires at seasons end. Restricted Free Agent this offseason.

    …. you and me both bro

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