Mikhail Grabovski: Sell High or Treasure?

by on January 7, 2011 in Opinion - 416 Comments

Mikhail Grabovski: Sell High or Treasure?
Toronto Maple Leafs' Mikhail Grabovski, right, of Germany, celebrates his overtime goal after defeating the New York Islanders 3-2 in NHL hockey action in Toronto on Tuesday March 10, 2009. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young
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Post Game Notes: Leafs light up Atlanta

One of the more polarizing players on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, Mikhail Grabovski has been on the tongues of Leafs Nation with his current hot streak in full effect. He suddenly has a lot of new and of course the old diehard “always believed in him” fans on his side with his torrid scoring pace over the past month.  Another game tonight, another two goals… the hot streak is borderline madness.

Just how hot has “Grabo” been?  Think back if you will to last season when enigmatic (for Toronto anyway) scoring winger Lee Stempniak was dealt to the Phoenix Coyotes (for nothing) and was almost literally in the news every day for his scoring exploits – 14 goals in 18 games!  Well since December 6, 2010 Grabovski has scored at an even more ridiculous clip with 12 goals in 14 games, the hottest player in the league over that time span.

Nobody is questioning the outstanding bounce back season Grabovski is having as he is on pace for 30 goals and 30 assists (assuming he can play 80 games). Xonsidering the Leafs overall lack of scoring this season, it’s even more impressive.  My question is – should the Leafs be looking at cashing in on this hot streak and selling him to the highest bidder while his trade value is as high as it will ever be?

Grabovski, who turns 27 on January 31st, is in his third season with the boys in blue since being acquired from the Montreal Canadiens for Greg Pateryn and a second round pick (2010 draft).  He has played in 176 games with the Leafs scoring 47 goals and adding 68 assists (112 points, or 0.65 per game).  Though the reclusive Grabovski has at various times frustrated fans and management with stretches of indifferent play, it’s hard not to like that trade.

However, with the trade deadline drawing closer (February 28, 2011) I think it’s safe to say teams could be inquiring to Brian Burke and the Leafs about possibly prying Grabovski away.  Making a reasonable (if not thrifty) $2.85 million dollars this season and signed for only one more season at $3.1 million (cap hit $2.9 million) it would seem nearly every team in the league could add that salary, especially for a potential thirty goal scorer which are always in extremely short supply.

Could this be the perfect storm Brian Burke has been waiting for in terms of making a big splash on the trade market and bringing in a much needed influx of young talent (and draft picks) more in the Burke mould?  With the Dallas Stars recently acquiring Jamie Langenbrunner (for a conditional third round pick) it appears the Stars are going “all-in” this season and one would assume they have all but taken Brad Richards off the trade market.

Just simple supply and demand would suggest that Burke holds a potential ace up the sleeve with a relatively young, cheap and talented centre who has taken his game to an entirely new level in 2010-11.  There were as many as nine scouts from nine different teams in attendance of the Maple Leafs game last night, including Colorado, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Boston, Edmonton, Carolina, Dallas, Calgary and the New York Rangers.

With the Leafs rumoured to be shopping the usual suspects (Francois Beauchemin, Mike Komisarek, Tomas Kaberle, etc) could Burke and the Leafs pull off another surprise blockbuster and potentially move a guy like Mikhail Grabovski?  While it would be a tough sell for Leafs nation to just up and trade the leading scorer the reality is the Leafs are 2-3 years away (at best) from becoming a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and his value might never be higher.

If doing what is best for the team is all that matters to Brian Burke, then I would guess he has already started preliminary discussions with teams to get a feel for his value league wide.  Maybe the market is softer than I anticipate and keeping him could turn out to be the most sensible solution.

What do you think, is it best to keep or trade him?  What type of return would you anticipate/expect?  Am I overstating his value?

The MLHS crew is on twitter, join the fun.

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  • Irishfanman

    Check out Reimers stats…he is a model of consistency, other than his first 3 games in the AHL his numbers are impressive

    Yr Team Lea gpi w l t otl min so ga sha gaa save%

    2010-11 Toronto NHL 4 2 1 – 0 193 0 6 114 1.87 .947
    2009-10 Toronto AHL 26 14 8 – 2 1520 1 57 757 2.25 .925
    2008-09 Toronto AHL 3 1 2 – 0 183 0 10 85 3.28 .882
    South Carolina ECHL 6 6 0 – 0 363 2 8 205 1.32 .961
    Reading ECHL 22 10 7 – 3 1236 0 68 708 3.30 .904
    Total Rea/SC ECHL 28 16 7 – 3 1599 2 76 913 2.85 .917
    2007-08 Red Deer WHL 30 8 15 – 4 1668 1 76 902 2.73 .916
    2006-07 Red Deer WHL 60 26 23 – 7 3339 3 148 1677 2.66 .912
    2005-06 Red Deer WHL 34 7 18 – 3 1709 0 80 891 2.81 .910
    2004-05 Interlake MMHL 37 19 6 2 – 1646 4 58 – 2.11 –
    2003-04 Interlake MMHL 27 6 5 2 – 863 1 41 – 2.85 –
    Total NHL 4 2 1 – 0 193 0 6 114 1.87 .947
    Total AHL 29 15 10 – 2 1703 1 67 842 2.36 .920
    Total ECHL 28 16 7 – 3 1599 2 76 913 2.85 .917
    Total WHL 124 41 56 – 14 6716 4 304 3470 2.72 .912
    Total MMHL 64 25 11 4 – 2509 5 99 – 2.37 -

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  • Mike84

    @ Cameron:
    I’m not sure where i heard it but i heard that Grabo trained with Datsyuk this offseason and he says that really helped his game.

    What about a player like Gaustad or Handzus for the 3rd line

    Handzus is a UFA so he can simply be signed in the offseason but Gaustad would need to be traded for.

    Kuls-Grabs-Mac
    ???-Bozak-Kessel
    Ver-Gaustad/Handzus-Army

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  • 4evrblue
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  • Cameron

    @ 4evrblue:
    -
    Yep, everyone’s too caught up in the hype of the youth movement right now – play your 18 year olds and all will be well. No, Burke is the one who has it right, using the Detroit model. The goal here is long term success. Kadri will have to play what, 7 seasons in the NHL before we lose his rights? What’s the rush? I’d say the most important thing about bringing in outside talent and maintaining your own top end talent, is creating a winner long term. Like Burke says, that sounds funny right now, but it’s ever so slowly coming together.
    -
    Admittedly, I myself have done a 180 on this topic, as I really thought Kadri should have been with the team this year, but that’s the thing about hockey, is you just keep learning. Every time we start to get back on track, I see another piece of Burke’s plan revealed.

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  • kabby84
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  • Cameron

    @ Mike84:
    -
    I don’t think Burke will go for anyone as old as Handzus – he’ll want to keep the team relatively close together in age, which is why I could see him breaking the bank on Laich a little bit. Laich is the perfect guy for us. Right age, right size, nice versatility position wise, and not so talented that he’ll be commanding 8 million + like Richards and Semin, or 10 year deals or any of that nonsense. He’d also fit right in with the largely Saskatechewan and Albertan base of players we’re collecting (MacArthur, Bozak, Schenn, Versteeg, Armstrong) – a nice western vibe. I could see him being tired of the “Ovi Show” in Washington too. Maybe he shares the same perspective as RJ Um_ber_ger on the Capitals….
    -
    Also, Grabovski stayed with Datsyuk two or three summers ago.

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  • IBleaf
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  • Dutchman

    @ Cameron:
    salary cap world of a gm is very chess like,
    If you just think about right now you are lost,
    The best GMs think several years ahead have contingencies plans for the parts that don’t work and aren’t afraid to make mistakes

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  • 4evrblue

    @ kabby84:
    completely agree. It’s like I said last night, replace Crabb, Boyce and Brent with legitimate NHLers and all of a sudden we have a good team. One of them will be replaced by Brown so we only have a couple of spots to go. We will need extra patience to get it done though because I think we need big aggressive players to fill those two positions so our selection is limited.

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  • Irishfanman

    @ Cameron:
    Gotta agree. Versteeg has turned out to be a perfect 3rd line winger along with Army. That should have allowed Kadri a top 6 spot, but he wasn’t ready. With Kadri like you say, you have to look at 7 years and his development and hunger level, not the immediate future. Every game in the AHL this season will make Kadri so much better next year. I don’t know why it works that way as I have never played close to that level of hockey, but heck Versteeg played 139 games in the AHL. I find him and Kadri to be similar players in terms of playing style, cocky attitude, swagger, etc although Kadri is faster and will probably end up being a better player in the long run.

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  • Cameron

    @ IBleaf:
    -
    That doesn’t make any sense though, you just refuse to relinquish your stubborn opinion about how a team should be. Would you complain about the Flyers roster, because right now they have about 9 million in cap on their 3rd line. In fact, their lineup is very evenly dispersed, just as my proposed lineup was:
    -
    Line 1: 7.67 million in cap *
    Line 2: 11.5 million in cap
    Line 3: 8.95 million in cap
    -
    *next year this will rise to 10.575 million when Giroux’s extension kicks in.
    -
    Burke has actually said, that the Flyers are basically the model he is hoping to eventually assemble.
    -
    EDIT: There also is just no one available in free agency to support your model. Unless Burke is going to give Richards 10 million dollars, he’s not coming here. Dallas is already negotiating with him, and he’s otherwise looking at the Rangers, Bolts and Kings. Plus, I’m not sure that model even works. The last three Cup winners had three balanced lines.

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  • Mike84

    @ Cameron:
    I would love Laich thats for sure. Most sites have him listed as a LW how often does he play C compaired to LW. On a side not about Laich did your hear the story how he pulled over and changed a ladies tire on his way home from the game after losing in the playoffs. Guy seems like a class act.

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  • surfsimply

    I’m one of the ‘always loved him’ crowd when it comes to Grabovski, and I still have a bad taste in my mouth from all the jackasses who maintained that he didn’t even deserve to be in this league – I’m looking at you Watters, McGuire, Healy, Cherry and a few people on this board – so of course I’m all for keeping him.
    .
    But I’m also a realist, so if Burke got offered a blow-away deal, I think he’d have to take it. The thing is, there’s no way that Grabs is going to maintain this pace, and a month from now when Grabovski is in a mini-slump and hasn’t scored a point in multiple games, all that anti-Grabs sentiment will resurface and people will be wondering why Burke didn’t trade him.
    .
    I guess what I’m saying is, as much as Grabovski is doing for this team, he will never be adored in this market.

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  • IBleaf
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  • Cameron

    @ surfsimply:
    -
    Yes, he will. As soon as success comes, he will be loved. We’ve got to give him more support. I can’t imagine how this team is going to open up offensively when our AHL’ers are replaced with legit impact guys. The city will overcome the media once winning returns.

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  • http://admin Alec Brownscombe

    @ surfsimply:

    I’m sure Don will show a clip of how terribly wrong he was about Grabovski just like how he shows off everything little thing he gets right….

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  • Cameron

    @ IBleaf:
    -
    It lacks 1st line talent in the immediate future, but it’s a competitive enough team to compete every night, while Mueller, Kadri and D’Amigo are pushing for roster spots. Before long, you have those guys really pushing vets off the team, and suddenly, we have the assets to acquire big name players again. That’s how it works.

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  • kaz

    I’ve always loved Grabo since his first games with us a few seasons ago, he was dynamic and skilled-just needed to play with capable players…Now everyone is liking him, I remember when many guys on here wanted to trade him for peas last year.
    .
    Anyways, I think that the 2 of the guys we keep over the next years are Kulemin and Grabo, they seem to have instant chemistry with whoever else is placed on their line (for the most part). Grabovski on his own actually, seems to elevate the play of his teamates in general (see Jason Blake last year). Obviously, keeping Mac would be great, but I hope he’s not hoping for a contract paying him over 4 million for a number of years…
    .
    The play of the Grabovski line is especially great considering that there is no legitimate scoring line playing behind them or more preferably in front of them. More and more, opposing teams top pairings and forward lines match up against Grabovski’s line rather than any line Kessel is on. Its our only line thats able to muster consistent pressure and an actualy cycle in the offensive zone.
    .
    Finally, I know that many guys on here see me as a pessimest for my tendency to critisize Burke’s moves, the Kessel deal in particular, but I really think that we’re only one top end forward away from becoming a playoff team for starters. The difference in many, many games is our inability to get any line going–aside from Grabovski’s. If we get the Kessel line going, we’ll start looking pretty good;

    Armstrong-Richards (for example)-Kessel
    Kuli-Grabo-Mac
    Versteeg-Bozak-Kadri

    Anybody on that third line can interchange with Army.

    cheers,

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