New deal coming for Gunnarsson?

@ Cameron:

As much as you might think that post was entirely about you, it’s not. You make a good point about big money players fetching somewhat lame returns in recent years. I disagree with your comparison of stats at a certain age, and then projecting that to say players have similar potential, but you’re hardly the only person I was referring to. Every time I come on here I read about how Kadri is the next Gilmour, Colborne is the next Thornton, Gardiner is going to be our Yandle, Frattin and D’Amigo will be 70 point guys, Gunnar is going to be so much like Kaberle we will think he is Kaberle, etc, etc. Some of that comes from you, but by no means all of it.

I am thrilled that the Leafs finally have a decent prospect base. It’s very exciting, and I really want to see these kids succeed. The reality is though, despite all the hype, and how orgasmic Pierre McGuire always sounds on draft day, most prospects don’t turn into stars. Most guys with 80 point potential settle in around 60. Most guys who score 60 points when they are 24 score 55-65 points every year until they retire. If Kadri and Colborne are 70 point guys in four years, I will be ecstatic. If Frattin is playing quality third line minutes, and getting close to 40 points, awesome. If Gardiner becomes Bret Hedican, rather than Keith Yandle, I will consider that to be pretty good. People seem to think the 2014 Leafs will look like this:

Kadri (20g, 75A)-Colborne (40g-50A)-Kessel (65g, 30A)
Kulemin (50g 30A)-Grabo(30g 50a)-McKegg (35g, 40A)
Frattin (35g, 35a)-Bozak(30g, 40A)-D’Amigo (35g, 30A)
Ross (30g, 30a, 250PIM)-McNeill (30g, 30a)-Mueller (30g, 30a)

Phaneuf (30g, 40a, 1689 hits)-Gardiner (20g, 50a)
Schenn (20g, 25a, 1688 hits, +356)-Gunnar (30g, 30a)
Blacker (25g, 25a)-Ian White (just happy to be back)

Reimer- (82 w, 1.000 s%, 0.00 GAA)
Owuya (0 gp, teamed up with Snow to make rap album, went double platinum)

It’s just not going to happen. Some of these guys aren’t going to be NHLers. Most aren’t going to be stars. If one tops 80 points regularly, we’ll be very lucky, not because they’re not good players, or not good people, but because most prospects don’t turn into high-end NHLers, period.

And again Cameron, this is by no means totally, or even mostly for your benefit, though I do think your dreams of what Burke can dump to get stars are a bit unreasonable. Stajan, Hagman, and White had 41, 33, and 26 points in 55 games when they were traded for Phaneuf, who had been in decline for several seasons, was having issues in the dressing room, and had 22 points in 55 games. Yes, the pieces were worth sacrificing for the whole, but they still looked pretty good as pieces. Bozak, a pick and a goalie prospect with no NHL experience aren’t nearly as attractive a package right now, whatever we as Leaf fans believe they may one day achieve.

@ Nights:

Not sure if we’re reading the same prospects guide, but the one I am reading would agree with your upside, and take 15-30 off to get the more reachable and likely numbers. It would also suggests that a lot of these guys have an 80% chance of even being regular NHLers, and a 30-55% chance of ever coming close to their upside.

That’s a more balanced view by far than the belief that every kid is going to be great some day, and we could have eight guaranteed stars just waiting around in our prospect pool, none of whom are tradeable because they will all be gods one day.