Morning Mashup: Playoff Odds

Photo: Chris Wattie/Reuters

With the All Star break behind us, we’re soon entering February, also known as the second last full month of the NHL schedule, and that means a few things: it’s trade season, and it’s time to start regularly checking SportsclubStats.com. The playoff probability tracker currently puts the Leafs at a 70.5% likelihood of qualifying for the post-season, which is not bad at all considering they are not technically in a playoff spot at the moment. It’s not as good as early in the New Year, when following their four game win streak they were up over 81%, but it’s certainly better than the 30.42% chance they had as of Nov. 17, following their big November slump.

Stranger things have happened (and might be happening in Anaheim), but it seems five teams in the East are looking at highly remote playoff probabilities as of the end of January – Tampa Bay, Carolina, Buffalo, the New York Islanders, and to a lesser extent Montreal.

The following are the records required from these clubs for a better than 50% shot at a playoff spot. The current playoff odds are in brackets:

Montreal (25.3%): 20-10-3
Buffalo (0.6%): 20-8-5
NYI (1.7%): 20-9-5
Carolina (0.8%): 21-7-3
Tampa Bay (5.4%): 20-10-4

The Leafs, meanwhile, require a 15-14-4 record to give themselves an odds-on chance at a playoff spot. One more win and a 16-13-4 split down the stretch would give the Leafs a near 85% likelihood of breaking their seven-season playoff drought.

It is safe to say the Leafs have not been in this good of a position leaving the All Star break since their near-misses in the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons. And the fact that we can likely limit the field to ten teams in contention for the top 8 (if one team goes on an unexpected surge, another will likely do the opposite.. Florida in particular seems like a team poised for a fall) does bode well for the Leafs’ chances.  I could be wrong, but it seems rare that we can tentatively write off that many teams this early.

The key for the Leafs down the stretch will be keeping pace while winning the majority of the four-point games against the likes of Winnipeg, Ottawa, New Jersey and Washington. Making gains on the Pittsburgh Penguins – who the Leafs play twice in the next two days – could bring them back into the pack as well. The Leafs play the aforementioned group of teams eleven times in the final 33 games, including the Penguins three times and the Devils, Capitals, Panthers and Senators twice apiece.

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LEAFS LINKS:

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