Kats Krunch: Leafs 2011-12 Goals For & Against Trends

by Gus Katsaros on April 6, 2012 in Analysis - 510 Comments

Some more charts coming your way.

I’ll let these charts paint the picture .. after all, if a picture is worth 1000 words, then consider this a 3000+ word blog post.

Whew … I’m exhausted! You know what it takes to put together 3000+ words? Find out after the jump.

Much-maligned goaltending has produced a somewhat predictable graphic on the Leafs 2011-12 season.

The first chart is the Leafs goals-for average on a daily basis .. the thin black line represents a 5 day moving average and I’ve duplicated that throughout all the charts.

The 5-day moving average takes the previous five entries and averages them plotting along on the graph.

Moving average is primary associated with technical analysis of stock prices, used as a crude measure of momentum and price support. In a trend, the moving average will support an upswing (like the upswing between November 15 and December 3rd), or provide a ceiling in a downswing (February 9 to March 31).

Once consistent strength changes the trend, (the solid Total line crossing the thinner 5 line), a new trend is created, some with momentum others will not have sustainability.

Two dates to keep in mind in viewing these charts. Randy Carlyle replaced Ron Wilson as of March 2 after a month long malaise sent the team into an irreversible downward spiral.

In the first chart, this the Leafs goals scored per game. Notice the trend down from the heights of October, to a mid-November change in trend.

Of course, what’s goals scored when there’s also goals against .. As the goals were drying up, the goals against were trending in another direction, with support from their moving average. The trend dissipated and started to dip once again after the coaching change, while beginnig to trend up to end the miserable campaign.

Of course, where would the comparison be without an overall look .. the following 1000 words represents the NHL goals scored per game average over the season, stabilizing in a range of 2.70 – 2.75 peak, for about a period of a month from the beginning of December passed the holidays into January.

A downward trend began with the changing of the calendar as the season ended, typical of teams trying to tighten up in the eager anticipation of the playoffs. In the end, the range of the trend doesn’t mean much of a fluctuation, with a drop 0.1 goals per game isn’t going to make a difference in a grand scale.

Twitter: @KatsHockey

Tags: maple leafs, NHL Print article