Mikhail Grigorenko Scouting Report

by on May 17, 2012 in Entry Draft - 298 Comments

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Photo: RDS

As the draft continues to draw nearer, the Mikhail Grigorenko story becomes more and more interesting. A player once believed to be a lock for the 2nd or 3rd spot in the draft is beginning to slide down the rankings, and is currently pegged anywhere from 4th to 20th. This opens up a scenario where a supremely talented, albeit inconsistent, 6’3 centre is on the board for the Maple Leafs at the fifth selection. What to do… What to do…

The Basics: An elite offensive-minded centre, a high risk/reward type prospect; 40 goals and 45 assits for 85 points in 59 games played for the Quebec Remparts

Strengths: Grigorenko possesses sublime offensive ability highlighted by wonderful hands, excellent vision, strong playmaking skills and a goal scorer’s instincts. He uses his size well and can be an absolute handful along the boards in the offensive zone. He possesses a good shot and is an offensive threat every time he steps on the ice. What is impressive for a young European player adjusting to the North American game is that Mikhail has shown the ability to absorb plenty of physical contact to make a play. The upside is sky high.

Weaknesses: Grigorenko is going to get the classic “inconsistent Russian player” label attached to him for the next coulpe of seasons until he is able to harness that natural ability and absolutely dominate a game. He received heavy criticism for disappearing toward the tail end of the Remparts’ series vs. the Mooseheads. His effort has been questioned at times, particularly on the defensive side of the ice. The skating ability is still choppy and may hinder some of his effetiveness on the rush.

Draft Day Outlook: I like Grigorenko and I think barring disatrous results at the draft combine, he is a top 5 player on draft day. In a draft lacking in top end talent, it’s tough to justify passing up on this kind of upside. Granted, it would not be unreasonable for Grigorenko to experience a Kopitar circa 2005 scenario, where the #5 ranked player fell to the #11 selection due to consistency concerns. This is a potential all-star calibre centre.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Not saying it shouldn’t be considered, but it’s kind of silly to write a kid off because he’s Russian. Half of the threat is created by the media. How many kids have actually buggered off for Russia?

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  • leafmealone

    True, normally their incredibly up to date.

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  • Gilbert

    Colborne isn’t an elite prospect. A good one but not elite.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    It’s funny, Colborne was considered an elite prospect when he was a Bruin. I believe he was frequently considered one of the league’s top 10 prospects.

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  • leafmealone

    Think there’s more to it than that. And that idea isn’t about the Habs, it’s about the players they draft/sign.

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  • http://twitter.com/Mitch_S2 Mitch_S2

    Couturier was 16 for the majority of that year. December birthday.

    Grigorenko is more than a year older at this respective point in their careers.

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  • HHT

    any streams for Marlies?

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  • leafmealone

    No doubt, he was a mid first round pick. Not to mention that he’s three years removed from his draft year and still can’t crack the roster full-time.

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  • 4evrblue

    I just look at Burkes track record of not drafting Russians and hear about the lack of commitment from Grigorenko, put two and two together and don’t see him as the guy to break the mold. If he had a reputation of dedication to go along with the skill I could see Burke making an exception but he doesn’t.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    The majority, lol? You mean less than half? Bottom line, Grigorenko’s stats at the same age are more impressive when you consider circumstance – by a fair margin.

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  • newkb

    Radulov, Zherdev, Filatov are the highest profile ones. No, they aren’t kids and didn’t go right away, but they certainly didn’t stick around for long. The risk of flight is greatly increased if things don’t go the exact way the player thinks everything should go (ie. – holding it over management’s head). They were all gone inside of 5 years….you need a 12-15 year player from a top-5 pick.

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  • Gilbert

    Colborne has always been a long project prospect. He played in the ajhl and didn’t play major junior. He has a high ceiling but has never been a lock for a number 1 center, not like Grigo is

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  • leafmealone

    I do wonder how much of a role the agents play in these decisions. They certainly make more on their cut if the player heads back to big money in Russia.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Oh I know, I’m just saying it is kind of funny how quickly the general perception on him changed once he became a Leaf. The year Kadri was on the WJ team, it was thought Colborne might be able to center the top line (he didn’t make the team). But that didn’t stop the glowing praise he got at all times. Only being a Leaf could do that, lol.

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  • newkb

    Definitely a factor – the advice he gets plays a role. I really wish it wasn’t an issue – he’s a talented kid, I’d love to see him in the blue and white for years as our #1 centre.

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  • Gilbert

    Bautista!!

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  • leafmealone

    Also, no one has mentioned Omark yet although it looks like he’ll bolt for the SEL if the Oilers don’t play him in the NHL, or trade him to a team that will. I laugh at the people who speculate that the Leafs should trade for this guy (usually Oilers bloggers/commenters at Oilers blogs-and usually for Luke Schenn, Cody Franson, or Jake Gardiner with picks going back to Edmonton in each scenario. lol). There’s no way that Burke picks this guy up after the attitude he’s displayed up to this point.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Filatov has tried everything to fit in with AHL and NHL clubs though – it’s not like he just couldn’t wait to leave and make more money. Radulov left for big money, and has since returned and reportedly isn’t too interested in returning to the KHL. He’s really the only good example, in my opinion. Zherdev has only missed 2 NHL seasons now, and only after receiving no interest from the NHL.
    -
    The other thing, is that the KHL is shit now. When Radulov left, and some of the older Russians and Euros took off as well, the league was making huge strides and looked to be taking off – possibly presenting a real threat to the NHL. Now it’s kind of a joke. They’ve lost their biggest franchise, suffered a mysterious plane crash, and watched a kid die on the ice thanks to terrible medical availibility. It’s not the draw it was…

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  • leafmealone

    Kabanov is supposed to be going there rather than the NHL. And Tarasenko won’t come over to the NHL either.

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  • leafmealone

    Also a player for the Blues right now, can’t think of his name.

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  • Gilbert

    I still think he’s an awesome prospect. Like I think Kadri is an elite or pretty damn close to an elite prospect. Colborne is a notch below it IMO. I watched him in junior when he got drafted. He was pretty good.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Yep, I’m just saying, we’ve only heard one guy make that comment about lack of dedication and work ethic. Likewise, I’ve only heard one guy say the opposite of Galchenyuk. While one report is enough to condemn a Russian, it’s enough to crown a North American?
    -
    But you’re right, the biggest thing is that Burke just doesn’t usually go with Russians. That said, he did draft the Sedins and break his mold once before. Not Russian, but not monstrous Canadian boys either.

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  • Burtonboy

    This is were the interviews come into play. I’m not saying to write these kids off but you have to do your due diligance bigtime.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Like 95% of his draft class peers…?

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  • newkb

    Oh, I completely get what your saying. But if he spent 2 more full years in junior, and then was looking at time in the minors after that, it would be tough to ignore the allure of getting handsomely paid vs. $75/week for 2 years and $67,500 riding the buses….we just don’t know what will happen in that situation – he has all the leverage.

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