Marlies Notebook – October 15

by on October 15, 2012 in MLHS Notebook, Toronto Marlies - 400 Comments

Marlies Notebook – October 15
Photo: Marlies.ca
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Photo: Marlies.ca

Since there’s no NHL to speak of at the moment, Leafs Notebook is turning into Marlies Notebook until this lockout is over.

Here’s the thing though: with different leagues comes different expectations and viewing experiences.

When it comes to watching and evaluating the NHL, it’s very simple: winning is all that matters. Each team in the league continuously tries to get better, figuring out how to start winning or continue winning. In the AHL, that is not necessarily the case. At the end of the day the Marlies will probably be judged by many based on the win and loss column, but what really matters – to me – is the progression of their players and how they can eventually help the Leafs win at the next level.

Thus, what will be focused on most here in this space is not really winning and losing, but how these players are progressing and, more importantly, how they can help the Leafs win hockey games whenever the NHL starts up again. Of course, the Marlies accomplishments will be pointed out too, but as I said the main focus is still with an eye towards the Leafs and how these guys can help the NHL team.

One other thing: The Marlies have played two games at this point. For some players, it was their first taste of pro hockey altogether. Let’s give them some time to get their feet wet before we really start critiquing them.

On that note, here are some observations from this past weekend’s back-to-back games:

- In October, Chris Johnston of the Canadian Press wrote this article about the relationship between Randy Carlyle and Dallas Eakins. It includes some of the system adjustments the Marlies will be making this year in order to play Carlyle hockey. The basic premise of the defensive system involves out numbering the opposition in the defensive zone. It is an interesting concept that will be fun to monitor as the season progresses. None of the goals scored against Toronto this weekend could be blamed on it as the Amerks scored on a power play, while Erie also had one power play goal, a goal scored by an individual effort and another scored off a misplayed dump-in on top of an empty netter. Meaning, there’s no real breakdown in the newly implemented system for us to discuss.

- While the Marlies lost against Erie, they dominated the game so it wasn’t really a great game to get a good look at the system. Against the Amerks it was also pretty one-sided, but there was a stretch in the second period where they got hemmed in their zone for an extended period of time where you could see the team chasing the puck a lot. That is the major downside to the system. Conversely, on many shifts the Marlies have sent two or even three guys into board battles, come out with the puck, and broken out of the zone cleanly after that.

- Another big part of Carlyle’s system is that he likes to use the middle of the ice more when it comes to breaking out. The Marlies have been doing this in two ways. The first is their defencemen, namely Gardiner, simply skating it out through the open ice on their own. The second has been a D to D pass followed by a quick pass up the middle to a center that cuts low below the faceoff dot; the center then makes the quick decision on whether he should pass it to either winger or skate it up himself.

- The Marlies appear to be skating the puck into the zone more often than not so far this year, but I’m not sure that’s a reflection on the Leafs style of play to be. I’d assume Carlyle’s system is more catered towards his specific lines. In other words, Kessel’s line will probably rarely dump it in, whereas McClement’s will most likely do so regularly.

- One last thing the about the Marlies system worth pointing out: when protecting a lead in the last minute of play they had their center, in this case Zigomanis, stay in the defensive zone near the goaltender and goal line when the opposition had the puck in the neutral zone. This was something even Ron Wilson had the team do in order to prevent teams from dumping the puck in behind the D-men who were standing up forwards at the blue line. It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but it was effective.

- Although it is not exactly news to many at this point, it’s probably time to consider Nazem Kadri a full-time winger. He played wing in the playoffs last year mixed with some center on a line with Zigomanis and Hamilton, and now he’s playing full-time wing to start the year. It’s probably for the best, anyways. There should be a spot alongside Mikhail Grabovski open for him sometime soon.

- On the other side of Kadri has been Carter Ashton. That means they are using his big body to complement skill in Kadri and Aucoin. Where Ashton continues to play will be something to monitor; if he’s going to play on what’s essentially the top line, he’s going to need to produce at a noteworthy and consistent pace. To this point he has failed to really create anything, but again it’s only two games. On the power play he has seen a steady shift as a floating net presence. That means he’ll stand in front of the net, and then float out to the top of the circle as a one-timer option. I’ve always personally felt that net presences work best when they literally just plant themselves in front of the goalie and don’t move, drawing a defender to them and driving the guy in net crazy (Keith Tkachuk comes to mind). A floating presence kind of defeats that purpose. I’ll be paying attention to see if that play continues and if he remains on the top line. Ashton was played as a grinder with the Leafs and that appears much more suited to his skillset.

- Leo Komarov got burned pretty hard against Lake Erie thinking he could pick-pocket Tyson Barrie at the Marlies blue line. The young defender spun around him then went down and scored a beauty of a goal. It’s a good learning experience because, against good players in the NHL, you are going to get burned if you get caught with your hand in the cookie jar, so to speak. And Barrie isn’t even a good NHLer yet. Other than that, Komarov has been finishing all his checks as advertised, which isn’t surprising because he did that in the World Championships consistently. He’s been a pest so to speak, but he clearly has to adjust to the North American game. This time in the AHL will actually be good for him. If the lockout lifts he’s going to be in a battle to win a spot on an energy and/or grinding line.

- D’Amigo is another guy who could possibly win a spot on the Leafs in that kind of role. The tough thing right now when it comes to the Marlies is that they have been rolling their lines when they can on account of their depth, which makes it harder to evaluate a player a like D’Amigo in a shutdown role. I thought this year we might have seen D’Amigo get power play time and used a little more offensively, but it has been penalty killing and defensive assignments so far for him. His role for the Leafs, should he make it, is pretty clear at this point.

- By the same token, Holzer’s role has specifically been a shutdown defender who sees top penalty killing time. Sounds like Brian Burke’s ideal third pairing defender.

- Jake Gardiner has been receiving a lot of attention from fans but he is someone I won’t spend much time on here. We already know he is an NHLer. He was going end-to-end in his rookie season in the big-league, so of course he’s going to be able to do it in the AHL. He’ll grow his offensive confidence and log a ton of ice-time, but realistically, there’s nothing to really say about him. He’s at the point where he needs to be challenged by NHLers. Jordan Eberle and RNH BOTH didn’t even get points in their first two games this season. There’s not much to say about these guys sent down due to the lockout. They’ll turn it on eventually, but it is what it is — they are NHLers in the AHL due to the lockout.

- Joe Colborne is coming back from surgery and still looks like he has to get his game going, but he has the zip back on his passes. The mustard he put on a cross ice pass to Ryan Hamilton for a tap in goal was something he could not do last year after he got hurt. He is getting predictable with that play, but on the whole it very much looks like the once-raw center project is starting to figure it out. When he was drafted everyone knew he was pretty raw, which really just means a little patience and teaching is required.

- Colborne might actually be the player benefiting most from the lockout in the organization because he isn’t ready to put up good numbers as an NHL center. In the AHL he is getting quality line-mates and buying development time. Like Kadri, he too will soon need a serious look at the NHL level over an extended period of time.

- The waiting game is also helping Matt Frattin, too. According to this Star report, he is expected back in about two weeks or so. I think it’s safe to say we’re all excited to see him play.

That’s it from me for now. It’s going to be a long season, especially if there’s no NHL, so we’ll try our best here to make it as entertaining as possible. The good news is that there are a ton of players on the Marlies who should eventually become NHLers so it’s not like we’re talking about plugs. What’s also good news is that the Marlies are really good. There are also a few Leafs prospects we’ll talk about throughout the year. Plus, who knows when Burke is going to open his mouth next? In other words, we’ll have stuff to talk about.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Put it this way Yak: If you were Bettman, or whoever is negotiating the deal, and you want to be brought back to do your job again, who are you going to be most urgent to satisfy?  Now ask yourself, did any of those suffer in the last deal?  No, they all saw record revenues and profits.  Like djamon said, it is only this year that Toronto even has a chance to spend it’s pre-lockout player salaries, and that’s not even accounting for the fact that 70 million now is worth a lot less than 70 million 8 years ago.

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  • Yaknowwhat

    The owners are losing hundreds of millions of dollars…demanding the deal be renegotiated…..and they’re the winners are they?? ok….whatever you say..

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  • mcloki

    And the knife is drawn. See how easy this is.

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  • Yaknowwhat

    Got to work tomorrow boys…later…

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  • mcloki

    Markham Coyotes has a ring to it.

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  • DefenceWinsChampionships

    The NHL, as a whole, made money. What was it, $3.3 billion as of the end of last season? Obviously, the net earnings do net reflect what the norm is for individual teams. The big profit-earners (Leafs, Habs, etc.) make the league look healthier than it is. 

    Hefty revenue-sharing could probably keep the NHL running with 30 survivable teams. 

    The players taking a much lower portion of revenue could likely do the same. 

    The problem is, the big-market teams aren’t going to give money to other teams “just because”. And it is understandable that the players don’t want to give up a massive % of revenue, especially after getting bent-over last time around. 

    The only viable solution is to implement a “luxury tax”/”soft cap”, giving big-market teams some real incentive to share revenue with the smaller-market teams, while taking a little bit of revenue from the players, just not too much. 

    Get each side to concede a little. Players give up a little bit of revenue – but get their jobs back. Big-market teams share revenue with smaller market teams – but get a comparative advantage in the very competitive NHL. 

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  • mcloki

    You’re giving the owners too much credit.

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  • MSM

    After all that’s been said in negotiations, I still can’t get my mind around a cash poor, badly situated team like Jersey committing more than $125 million long term to a single player.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    No, it doesn’t, you’re looking at the issues too narrowly.  First of all, you have to stop saying that the league is losing 100′s of millions of dollars.  They’re not.  A hand full of owners are losing money, while the most important clubs are rolling in cash.  The league, and Bettman, have a responsibility to grow the game, where as the players generally seem to not give a shit. 
    -
    And of course the owners are demanding to renegotiate, but they would do that regardless.
    -
    Basically, last time around, the owners took some concessions to get a salary cap.  They won that battle, but in order to complete their master stroke, they need to reel in some other things as well.  Yea, some guys might have taken a hit last time around, but it’s probably not realistic to negotiate an absolute perfect owner’s paradise in one sitting.  That doesn’t happen in any field.

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  • djamon

    First of all…the Owners are losing whatever amount (their numbers are ridiculous, but you go ahead and believe it) due not to the contract they negotiated, but to the fundamental flaws in the system (which has been explained many times to you).

    The simple fact is that they have a hard Cap, which was once thought to be an impossible achievement. Salaried today are much MUCH lower than they would have been without a Cap.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Point and case, lots of players made Crosby money pre-lockout.  And 9 million 8-10 years ago was worth a hell of a lot more. 

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Who did they give 125 million to?

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  • Burtonboy

    The top 6 revenue teams in the League made roughly 220 mil in profit. There are another 6 teams who made less then 10 mil and several are only just above break even. The remaining 18 teams are actually in the red . How much RS would be required from the top earners to correct that problem?

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  • djamon

    I’ve found you can make the same point 100 different ways and some people will just never get it.

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  • djamon

    Where did you get those numbers? I would have thought the Leafs made over 100M on their own.

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  • MSM

    In terms of profit, according to Forbes, 12 money making teams earned a combined $250 million last year after expenses. 18 money losing teams lost a combined $120 million. NHL screw ups Columbus and Phoenix account for a third of those losses, about $39 million.

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  • Burtonboy

    That’s after expenses ..operating income. Now the Forbes number are not 100 % accurate for sure  but its all we have . They did in fact come very close to the total league revenue of 3.3 billion so you can assume they are very close . 

    http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/list/

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  • Waiting4LSC

    Locate in non-hockey markets, give away streams of revenue (parking, concessions etc), and pay for administration of the arena, despite  the NHL having seen the financial projections prior to approving the franchise application, and you have a recipe for, YES, disaster. And under whose responsibility does this fall?

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  • djamon

    Can I have 3 guesses?

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  • MSM

    AND squeeze every dollar out of taxpayers they can. Like Katz strong arming Edmonton for $450 -million for a new rink with the threat of moving to Seattle.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    It seems so simple to just removes those two teams, implement a strategy that fills the rinks in Florida and Tampa (7 team division with Eastern Canadian teams), and start a real revenue sharing program with a luxury tax systems that gives those upper 6 teams a reasonable competitive edge. 

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  • MSM

    The earned a pile but after expenses their profit was about $85 million.

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  • Waiting4LSC

    3 guesses, here’s another clue to help you narrow it down. This person brought in  Silicon Valley financier William “Boots” Del Biaggio III who was sentenced to more than eight years in prison for bilking investors and banks.

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  • Burtonboy

    I’m not saying there aren’t problems like PHX and Columbus that need to be dealt with. The point is there are many other franchises that a in the red or just barely making it. I really don’t see given the fact the League doesn’t have a huge TV contract where the revenue sharing is going to come from to fix those problems without the players taking a cut . Even if you took 50% more from the top 6 teams it still wouldn’t address the problem

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  • djamon

    I have it narrowed down to 2.

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