Will common sense prevail?

by Alec Brownscombe on October 24, 2012 in Morning Mashup - 622 Comments

Photo: AP/Tom Hanson

Strapped for a mashup topic this morning, I was reading the latest doomsday talk from last night and thought it might be worthwhile to highlight a post from late last week courtesy of mc79 hockey (in case you missed it). If, like me, you’re one of the poor souls trying to make sense of the countless 800-word articles containing the latest BS quotes spewing out of the parties involved, Tyler Dellow has done you a great service with this break down of the measurable gap between the NHL and NHLPA.

Keep in mind, first of all, that it’s the last possible deadline that matters most – as far as a full season goes, that could be as far as two weeks after November 2 – and even then, a few games lost early in the season is probably not a make it or break it factor here.

Despite all the posturing and the PR stunts – the talk of “back to the drawing board,” or “we’re not even speaking the same language” – both sides appear close to deal-making territory, regardless of the current dispute surrounding the time frame – the “phase in” or “make whole” stuff – of implementing the ~50/50 split.

If Tyler’s numbers are right, and they seem to be, even under the NHL’s conservative 5% growth projection the gap between the two sides after the PA’s most recent proposals is below $490 million over a six-year CBA. Dellow breaks it down to $81 million a season, or 2.7 million per team per season. James Mirtle puts a percentage estimate of the gap at 3% of HRR.

These are numbers to keep in mind as both sides continue to squeeze for additional concessions. So too is the fact that last week was not the first time Bettman has described the league’s proposal as its best and last. It doesn’t make the whole process any less horrible, and this is not to suggest that greed is always logical or that the final concessions will come easily, but the numbers simply don’t add up to a lost season. They never have.

Hopefully common sense prevails.

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A few quick Leafs links for your Wednesday morning…

James van Riesmdyk pondering Finland
Sounds like JvR is ready to sign for Tampere of the Finnish premiere league once this week’s deadline passes.

The Outsiders: Marlies Defencemen
Gus Katsaros takes an in-depth look at the Marlies D-men with an outside shot at some NHL time this season.

Is Johnny Bower the greatest ever Maple Leaf goalie?
Dave Stubbs with a nice tribute to Johnny Bower, voted the Leafs best all-time goalie on the team’s facebook page.

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