Will common sense prevail?

by on October 24, 2012 in Morning Mashup - 622 Comments

Will common sense prevail?
Photo: AP/Tom Hanson
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Strapped for a mashup topic this morning, I was reading the latest doomsday talk from last night and thought it might be worthwhile to highlight a post from late last week courtesy of mc79 hockey (in case you missed it). If, like me, you’re one of the poor souls trying to make sense of the countless 800-word articles containing the latest BS quotes spewing out of the parties involved, Tyler Dellow has done you a great service with this break down of the measurable gap between the NHL and NHLPA.

Keep in mind, first of all, that it’s the last possible deadline that matters most – as far as a full season goes, that could be as far as two weeks after November 2 – and even then, a few games lost early in the season is probably not a make it or break it factor here.

Despite all the posturing and the PR stunts – the talk of “back to the drawing board,” or “we’re not even speaking the same language” – both sides appear close to deal-making territory, regardless of the current dispute surrounding the time frame – the “phase in” or “make whole” stuff – of implementing the ~50/50 split.

If Tyler’s numbers are right, and they seem to be, even under the NHL’s conservative 5% growth projection the gap between the two sides after the PA’s most recent proposals is below $490 million over a six-year CBA. Dellow breaks it down to $81 million a season, or 2.7 million per team per season. James Mirtle puts a percentage estimate of the gap at 3% of HRR.

These are numbers to keep in mind as both sides continue to squeeze for additional concessions. So too is the fact that last week was not the first time Bettman has described the league’s proposal as its best and last. It doesn’t make the whole process any less horrible, and this is not to suggest that greed is always logical or that the final concessions will come easily, but the numbers simply don’t add up to a lost season. They never have.

Hopefully common sense prevails.

***

A few quick Leafs links for your Wednesday morning…

James van Riesmdyk pondering Finland
Sounds like JvR is ready to sign for Tampere of the Finnish premiere league once this week’s deadline passes.

The Outsiders: Marlies Defencemen
Gus Katsaros takes an in-depth look at the Marlies D-men with an outside shot at some NHL time this season.

Is Johnny Bower the greatest ever Maple Leaf goalie?
Dave Stubbs with a nice tribute to Johnny Bower, voted the Leafs best all-time goalie on the team’s facebook page.

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  • WendelGilmour

    Revenu has gone up from 2.2B to 3.3B, which is 50%. Yet all the extra revenue is spkit up amongst tge same number of players, leading to 90% increase. Yes, they are linked, but pka

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  • Burtonboy

    Far as I’m concerned Fehr’s plan has always been to manuver this into a position where he can pull the cap off the table.

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  • Yaknowwhat

    You might be right..and if so…Fehr has indeed misread the situation….that ain’t happening…salary cap is here to stay..

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  • jcg_4

     maybe the league won’t fight it; then they could use replacement players…strike won’t last long after that.

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  • rustynail

    Yup and with no guaranty of success there either. Apparently the courts don’t like decertification during a labour dispute

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  • Burtonboy

    Bet he doesn’t think so lol

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  • Yaknowwhat

    I wonder how much say the player reps have..are they directing Fehr?? or is Fehr just telling them all to trust and follow him? My guess is the later..

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  • wiski

    The last 2 lockouts have been worth it for the players. the owners wanted a 31 and 42 mil hard cap before those lockouts. This one with cap tied to revenue take the 50% and keep growing the game, don’t fuck it up.

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  • Burtonboy

    Its risky stuff for sure and would all but guarantee the season is done 

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  • wiski

    Yup thats plan B, one owner said 30 -40% of them would cross the line on the first day of camp.

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  • djamon

    Why do you say that? You don’t think some of the low revenue teams would prefer to have no Cap than trying to keep up with a “floor” that’s gone way beyond their means?

    I think the Cap is definitely in play. Just like baseball…let the big boys spend. Then tax them and spread it around the poor teams.

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  • WendelGilmour

    Could well be, Bboy, but if that happens Bettman will counter with killing guaranteed contracts, then it gets really ugly.

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  • djamon

    That Owner is dead wrong.

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  • wiski

    After sitting out 2 years?

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  • Burtonboy

    Fehr is calling the shots for sure . He was originally bought in to rewrite the constitution. I’m not 100% sure of how its set up but my understanding its very difficult for the players to do what Linden did last time when he basically took over negotiations from Goodenow. It will be difficult removing Fehr from the picture 

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  • djamon

    2 years?

    That will never happen. The Owners would cave by then too.

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  • Yaknowwhat

    I just don’t see the owners ever going back to that system..they fought long and hard for that and they aren’t going to ever go back…..not going to happen…not to mention it turns the league into a bit of farce…do we really a system like baseball where one teams payroll is 5-10 times more than another teams payroll?? Competitive balance becomes a joke…and small markets get buried….I don’t think that type of system is good for the league or the game….although it would be good for the Leafs..

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  • Yaknowwhat

    I wouldn’t be so sure..

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  • djamon

    As it should be…the players are idiots and negotiated a terrible deal last time. It only worked inn their favour because some brilliant agents found the loopholes.

    They need to let Fehr do his job, he’s very good at this.

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  • jcg_4

     If I remember correctly that’s what ended the 1st NFL strike.

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  • Yaknowwhat

    The players negotiated a terrible deal last time?? The deal that seen their salaries sky rocket..The deal that they would love to hold on to now?? The deal the owners are begging to get out of…yeh…terrible deal for the players last time….owners clearly won..lol…

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  • djamon

    I have news for you…competitive balance is alive and well in MLB…10 different winners in the last 12 years. The Jays, Pirates and Royals are the only 3 teams who haven’t made the playoffs since the last work stoppage.

    The rich teams want to spend more…let them. The poor teams don’t want to have to pay the floor…let them pay what they want (within reason). 

    The simple fact is that their Cap system has been a colossal failure. Maybe it’s time to get rid of it. 

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  • wiski

    I couldn`t find the article Basically Betman shuts down this year, gives a take it or leave it offer again in the spring, if the players refuse to sign by the end summer he cancels next season and goes with replacement AHL players. 

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  • Yaknowwhat

    Cap is here to stay..and you can take that to the bank..

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  • Burtonboy

    Who has the financial power to win a war of attrition ? Remember that Bettman like the PA had the by laws of the BOG changed since the last lockout. He now only needs 8 votes to turn down any deal with the PA. I would be very surprised if Bettman couldn’t get those 8 votes if he needed them.

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