Roberto Luongo: Know the Risks
This just in tonight from Pierre Lebrun of ESPN, describing the cap benefit recapture component of the new CBA on existing deals over 6 years.
To wit: let’s say the Canucks trade Luongo soon. Luongo has played two years of his 12-year contract, the Canucks paying him $16.716 million in salary but only absorbing a $5.33 million cap hit each year. That’s a cap savings of $6.056 million over two years so far for Vancouver. Under this new rule, should the Canucks trade him now and he retires with three years left on his contract, Vancouver would be charged that $6.056 million in cap savings over the final three years left on his deal from 2019 to 2022. However, let’s say for argument’s sake Luongo gets traded to Toronto, the Maple Leafs also would be subject to cap penalties if Luongo retires before the end of his deal.
To wit, part 2: If Luongo were to play the next seven years of his deal in Toronto before retiring, the Leafs would be paying him $43.666 million in salary but only counting $37.31 million against the cap over those seven years, a cap savings of $6.356 million. So if Luongo retires with three years left on his deal (because his salary falls to $1.618 million in the 10th year and then $1 million in the last two years of the deal), the Leafs would get charged that $6.356 million on their cap spread evenly over the remaining three years of his deal.
The Leafs would be on the hook for 6.356/3 or around 2.12 million per season on the cap for all remaining seasons of the contract if they were to acquire Luongo and he were to retire with three years left on his deal.
On the upside, if Burke were to acquire Luongo in a trade, the return value should reflect that the Leafs will likely be incurring this part of the penalty. I can’t see Luongo fetching significant value with these conditions in mind.
In other CBA news, Brian Burke’s wish for a rule allowing the retainment of salary in trades has been granted with a limit of up to 50% of the contract value of the traded player.
Optimustic - January 7, 2013
50$ of the contract value? You may want to change that to 50%. Typo I’m sure.; ;- 0
wiski - January 7, 2013
Do you mean 50% of the contract value of the traded player.
Alec_Brownscombe - January 7, 2013
Boys boys, it’s already fixed. Hold the horses. haha.
Loric76 - January 7, 2013
Luongo for a 7th in whatever year he retires…presumably the year the Leafs win the cup so Vancouver gets the dead last pick…
Kurt!! - January 7, 2013
what if he is bought out?
keon - January 7, 2013
banhammer them
keon - January 7, 2013
then he can be signed by anyone
Optimustic - January 7, 2013
Just razing you Alec. Appreciate all the work you put into this site.
B_Leaf - January 7, 2013
With camp about to begin for the Leafs I thought I would put out one of my opinion rants
to create some controversation. Overall I do not think there will be any trades
before the season starts. I hope the Leafs stay far away from Roberto Luongo
and his contract. Every Leaf fan wants great goaltending, but Luongo is a
question mark at best, he is 33, and his contract lasts a decade in a new lower
cap era. Why on earth would we make this move when we have successfully been
developing three goaltenders that are coming of age? I really like what I have
seen in Reimer before injury and I equally like what I’ve seen from Scrivens.
Let’s face it the Leafs are a work in progress so let’s see where things are
at.
This year could go either way. If we win and make the playoffs with what we have then
that is great progress and we might be able to add a UFA in the summer. If
things go bad then we exercise patience and try to add a top notch prospect or
two through the draft. It is a strong draft and we desperately need a blue chip
forward moving forward.
Goaltending:
As already mentioned our goaltending is settled. I don’t really care who
starts, but the job goes to Reimer and Scrivens. I like both these guys; one
may falter a little but not both. I expect our collective save percentage will
be between .907 and .917. It may not be league top ten but it’s good enough for
a couple young guys starting out, and it’s good enough to make the playoffs.
Reimer has already done this before in 2011 when he was nothing short of
sensational. Scrivens has averaged .930 type numbers since his second year of college.
I understand the angst in Leaf Nation over the net problems of the last decade
but I think these guys are our best option, and I think they are good. If we
were a complete team only missing a goaltender I might look at this differently
but that is not the reality.
Defence:
Of all the options before Brian Burke and Randy Carlyle the defense is the area
where they need to act decisively. The Leafs need to be tougher. I am not
suggesting goons. Outside of Dion Phaneuf and Carl Gunnarsson who have both
been fantastic everyone else is debatable. Obviously a healthy Jake Gardiner
belongs. In the 20 games or so that he has played this year in the AHL he has been
nothing short of amazing. I wondered if Gardiner would flat line after his good
rookie season, but now I wonder how good he just might be. He has showed
massive improvement in the offensive zone. Hopefully he is healthy soon. After
those three I have to admit that the last four spots are wide open. Liles,
Komisarek, Franson, Holzer, Fraser, Ranger (would have to be signed), Kostka,
and Rielly should all get a legit shot. Out of that group the two guys who have
really impressed me are Ranger and Fraser. It would be best to see them in a
full training camp but that is not possible. They have components the Leafs
need like size, experience, toughness, and they are in game shape. So then what
if you settled on Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Gardiner (if healthy), Ranger, Fraser,
Liles, and Holzer. If Gardiner is out a while maybe you give Rielly 9 games if he warrants it in camp. Against a
team like the Bruins we would actually be able to put some legit toughness on
the ice. If we wanted to play puck possession we have the tools to do that as
well.
Centre:
Well we haven’t gone out and acquired the big first line center but we do have
some pretty good players coming of age. Grabovski, Bozak, McClement, and
Steckel are actually not that bad and there is some balance there. There is
some size, some skill, good defensive awareness, and some speed. As a group
they are decent on face offs. Grabovski along with Dion is the heart of this
team. The guy is an amazing player who competes on a very high level. Bozak is
coming off a good year but should be even better. He will play again with Lupul
and Kessel. McClement and Steckel will center the bottom two lines. If one of
these guys falters don’t be surprised if Kadri takes a spot. Kadri’s defensive
play is no longer an issue, and he is stronger. The Leafs are probably a top center
away from being a good team.
Forwards:
Lets list those who will definitely have spots. Kessel, Lupul, and JVR are
locks in the top six. Kulemin, Frattin, and MacArthur are top nine. After that
Komarov, Kadri, Brown, Connolly, and Lombardi are in the mix. Komarov and Kadri
could push into the top nine by merit or injury. Another player who could push
their way into the picture is Jerry DAmigo who is an excellent PKer. Even Keith
Aucoin might have a shot. In this group I see the potential for improved
toughness but lacking one guy who can really step up physically. There is also
the potential for a good PP here as well. The speed factor is high, and the
cycle capabilities are improved but could be better. I wonder if David Broll
will get a limited role on the fourth line to keep the other team honest, just
a thought.
In summary it should be really interesting to see so many new faces. The Leafs have to
burn some of the dead wood that has plagued this team. Most of the new faces
come from within the organization, this is good. There are weaknesses from
yesteryear that must be addressed. We may not have the best tough players but
we must have toughness. We must demand competence and heart.
Kurt!! - January 7, 2013
I mean if he is bought out what about cap pens?
keon - January 7, 2013
say again
Alec_Brownscombe - January 7, 2013
I know, I asked for it. Proof read, Alec.
wiski - January 7, 2013
So what would you say is a good deal for Lou?
Bon Scott was a Leaf fan - January 7, 2013
Alec, just out of curiosity…would you trade for Luongo (and if yes, would you give up Kadri)??
B_Leaf - January 7, 2013
Vancouver is screwed.
Loric76 - January 7, 2013
I’m guessing the cap penalties are assigned at that point, since the contract has ended. Not sure how that impacts the team that buys him out tho (would it be a double hit? Buyout + penalty?)
Waiting4LSC - January 7, 2013
Trade to Florida. :)
wiski - January 7, 2013
Katla Magnúsdóttir @DrunkOffNyQuil
Mobile homes beating golden domes!!!
keon - January 7, 2013
oh, penalties
If he’s bought out, I assume that would be it, no penalties for anyone, if Vancouver buys him out
Alec_Brownscombe - January 7, 2013
Yes, I expand on it here: http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/01/03/three-keys-to-shoring-up-the-chronic-goals-against-problem/
A potential 3 year cap penalty is no joke, and a little disappointing. Thought it would just be Vancouver on the hook in this scenario. I wouldn’t have given up Kadri before, either. Now, I wouldn’t go further than Bozak and Franson, even that is pushing it.
Optimustic - January 7, 2013
I’m becoming very leary of making the Loungo deal. If he quits sooner it could cost us too much. This clause in the CBA should make Lou close to worthless value wise in any trade.
Waiting4LSC - January 7, 2013
Wiski: I h8 both the Domers and the Tide (bc of Satan). Am a big SEC guy having lived in Atlanta, so for bragging rights i have to like the Mobile Homes.
Optimustic - January 7, 2013
Guess I’ll get the same back next time I screw up. And I screw up as much as anyone. lol
B_Leaf - January 7, 2013
Why would any team take on Luongo?
Loric76 - January 7, 2013
Cause they have Riemer and Scrivens?