Leafs not in uncharted territory with young goalie tandem

by on January 22, 2013 in Analysis - 748 Comments

Leafs not in uncharted territory with young goalie tandem
CHRISTINNE MUSCHI /REUTERS
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Despite the Roberto Luongo to Toronto trade rumours, the Leafs have begun the season with a pair of young netminders manning their crease. The duo of James Reimer and Ben Scrivens came into this year with a combined 83 starts between them. In a hockey-crazed town that hasn’t seen playoff action since 2004, all of these factors haven’t stopped management from holding firm in their beliefs in their talents while not giving up good assets for an established goalie.

You would think an experienced management team, such as the one overseeing the Leafs, would like to solidify their goaltending as soon as possible when you consider the young team they are icing, yet they have not to this point. This isn’t the first time an NHL team has gone down the path of running with two inexperienced goalies, and it surely won’t be the last. To give you an idea of how young goalie tandems have turned out, I looked up every team’s starting tandem since 1997, and recorded every goalie duo I found where both starters had less than three years of experience, just like Reimer and Scrivens.

Young NHL goalie tandems

Team
Season
Tandem
SV%
GAA
Personal record
Team record
Standings
AVERAGE0.9092.817.6
Bruins2005-2006T. Thomas0.9172.7712-13-10-29-37-1613th in East
H. Toivenen0.9142.639-5-4-
A. Raycroft0.8754.233-9-1-
2006-2007T. Thomas0.9053.1330-29-4-35-41-613th in East
H. Toivenen0.8754.233-9-1-
Sabres2001-2002M. Biron0.9152.2231-28-10-35-35-11-19th in East
M. Noronen0.8942.664-3-1-
Hurricanes2005-2006C. Ward0.8823.6814-8-2-52-22-82nd in East- Won Cup
M. Gerber0.9062.7838-14-6-
Kings2005-2006J. Labarbera0.92.8911-9-2-42-35-510th in West
M. Garon0.8943.2231-26-3
2008-2009J. Quick0.9142.4821-18-234-37-1114th in West
E. Ersberg0.92.648-11-5-
J. Labarbera0.8932.835-8-4-
2009-2010J. Quick0.9072.5439-24-746-27-96th in West- Rd. 1
E. Ersberg0.9062.44-3-2-
J. Bernier0.9571.33-0
2010-2011J. Quick0.9182.2435-22-346-30-67th in West- Rd. 1
J. Bernier0.9132.4811-8-3-
Wild2007-2008N. Backstrom0.922.3133-13-8-44-28-103rd in West- Rd. 1
J. Harding0.9082.9411-15-2-
Habs2008-2009C. Price0.9052.8323-16-10-41-30-118th in East- Rd. 1
J. Halak0.9152.8618-14-1
2009-2010C. Price0.9122.7713-20-5-39-33-108th in East- ECF
J. Halak0.9242.426-13-5-
Predators2008-2009P. Rinne0.9172.3829-15-440-34-810th in West
D. Ellis0.92.9311-19-4
2009-2010P. Rinne0.9112.5332-16-547-29-67th in West- Rd. 1
D. Ellis0.9092.6915-13-1
Islanders1997-1998W. Flaherty0.9261.994-4-3-30-41-1110th in East
T. Salo0.9062.6423-29-5
E. Fichaud0.9052.973-8-3-
2008-2009Y. Danis0.912.8610-17-326-47-915th in East
J. MacDonald0.9013.3714-26-6
Rangers2007-2008H. Lundqvist0.9122.2337-24-1042-27-135th in East- Rd. 2
S. Valiquette0.9162.195-3-3-
Senators2000-2001P. Lalime0.9142.3536-19-548-21-9-32nd in East- Rd. 1
J. Hurme0.9042.512-5-4-
Flyers2000-2001R. Cechmanek0.9212.0135-15-643-25-11-24th in East- Rd. 1
B. Boucher0.8763.278-12-5-
2001-2002R. Cechmanek0.9212.0524-13-642-27-10-32nd in East- Rd. 2
B. Boucher0.9052.4118-16-4
2002-2003R. Cechmanek0.9251.8333-15-1045-20-13-44th in East- Rd. 2
R. Esche0.9072.212-9-3-
Sharks2001-2002E. Nabokov0.9182.2937-24-544-27-8-33rd in West- Rd. 2
M. Kiprusouff0.9152.487-6-3-
2002-2003E. Nabokov0.9062.7119-28-828-37-9-814th in West
M. Kiprusoff0.8793.255-14-0
V. Toskala0.9272.354-3-1-
2011-2012A. Niemi0.9142.4234-22-943-29-107th in West- Rd. 1
T. Greiss0.9152.39-7-1-
Leafs2011-2012J. Reimer0.93.114-14-435-37-1013th in East
J. Gustavsson0.9022.9217-17-4
Capitals2010-2011M. Neuvirth0.9142.4527-12-4-48-23-111st in East- Rd. 2
S. Varlamov0.9242.2311-9-5-
B. Holtby0.9341.7910-2-2-

Other than the Islanders and 2005-2006 Kings, along with a jury still out on Toronto, San Jose, and possibly Washington, all of the teams emerged with a bonafide number one for some period of time. From Tim Thomas and Jonathon Quick, to Patrick Lalime, Henrik Lundqvist and Evgeny Nabokov, these are just some of the goalies that emerged from young duos to become successful goalies in this league.

Further to the point, not all of these goalies were exactly dripping in pedigree and upside when they first began here. Tim Thomas was basically taking one last kick at the can after failing to stick in the NHL and going off to Europe during his first go-around, Lundqvist was a 7th round pick who worked his way to New York (sound familiar?), Quick, after quickly showing he was too good for the AHL, actually staved off a guy in Jonathon Bernier, who the Kings had drafted to be their guy in the first round.

Goaltending is by far the hardest position to predict, especially when it comes to drafting kids to be your starter five years down the road. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

That’s partly an endorsement on Luongo, but that’s also partly an endorsement on Reimer and Scrivens. Everybody knows Luongo is, at the very least, an above average goalie on a contract with an absurd term. The pros and cons of Luongo have already been covered by the masses, so there’s nothing really to add anymore.

But what the Leafs currently have, however, aren’t exactly bums. This isn’t the Islanders running a tandem of Yan Danis and Joey MacDonald. Dave Nonis actually summed it up best when he said, “The only issue I would have with our goaltending would be experience. It’s not that they’re not quality goalies.”

James Reimer, albeit in a limited amount of games, showed he could play in the NHL at a high level in his 37 game stint during the 2010-2011 season. Before then, he was good in the AHL, ECHL and in the WHL even before that. He didn’t just come out of nowhere to play 37 good games, causing Toronto to make a rash decision. He’s been a good goalie at every level he’s played at, has good size for position, and an even better mentality.

Meanwhile, Ben Scrivens has been one of the best goalies in the AHL for the last season and a half. Prior to being signed by the Leafs, he absolutely dominated the college circuit. He too has shown flashes at the NHL level of being able to compete at a high level.

So what does this all mean? That if the Leafs run with Scrivens and Reimer, eventually one will step up and become a star? Not necessarily. However, in my estimation, it means enough to me that I’d be willing to run with the two in a 48 game season to see if one emerges as the clear front runner between the two. Clearly Scrivens has the advantage because he’s in midseason form, but Reimer is in the same boat as most NHL goalies at the moment (having not played actual games during the lockout), and hopefully, for his sake, he will be able to get his game going and subsequently create an environment in which both goalies challenge each other for starts nightly.

James Reimer ($1.8M) and Ben Scrivens (612k) are both under contract for next year at extremely cheap deals for goalies. If both play well, the Leafs can just keep both again and go from there. If only one plays well, they can easily cut bait with the other and look to bring in a more experienced guy to support the one who wins the gig (Backstrom, Thomas, Theodore and Garon are all UFAs and solid goalies). And if they both struggle? I’m sure Luongo will still be available. Nobody else seems to want him anyway.

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  • leafsforlife

     You said it!

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    People are only saying Kulemin because they heard the broadcasters say he was at fault on two goals.  Yes, he did make the mistake on the PK goal in Montreal, but mistakes should be allowed.  It’s not as though there are flawless NHL players.  It’s a tough job shutting down the best forwards on the opposition when they have a man advantage.  But there’s a reason he’s seen a ton of ice time.

    I see Kulemin winning every offensive zone puck battle, coming back and lifting sticks, and then looking to create plays, only to find nobody open.  Grabo needs to step it up offensively, and Mac needs to help with the cycle.  

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  • 4evrblue

    I find the Isles worse. Edmontons players may not have been physically ready but they had the skill. Guys like Bailey and Niederreider had better physical attributes but didn’t have the skill and that can kill a player mentally. They may never be anything in the NHL, gagner on the other hand has been a steady 40-50pt player. Maybe his development would have changed with a higher top end if they didn’t keep him up but theres nothing wrong with a guy that puts up those kinds of numbers.

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  • Shotgun Charlie

    New thread http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2013/01/22/report-wayne-gretzky-approached-for-maple-leafs-presidency/

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  • DefenceWinsChampionships

    We cannot move Gunnar. He’s arguably our 2nd best dman, and our only defensive dman that can reliably play top 4 minutes. We would need to replace him.

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  • Leafs_17

    sure it is just not as much of a weakness as u might be making it out to be, if your being forced to trade a player then that in its self is a position of weakness, that doesn’t mean they can’t get a good return for him, Its just that they will be forced to get a good return or the fans will revolt in Montreal cause they want him on the Team

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  • B_Leaf

    Another really good article Anthony…as usual I agree.
    In fact I think alot of the logic in this article could be applied to the whole team. I don’t expect a lot of trades other than those that might facilitate a veteran type out of town. I think this team will continue to play line-ups like last night and see what happens. At the TDL we might see movement depending on circumstances.

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  • Inchesstyle

    kulimen i like his game not scared to get dirty in corners but he needs to score

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    Eberle was drafted in 08 and joined the team in 2011.  Schultz was drafted in 2008 also, and just played his first game in 2013.  Three of the others were 1st overall picks who have both spent large chunks of time on IR because they were rushed.  Gagner is perhaps the penultimate example of what not to do with prospects.
    -
    If that’s what constitutes a rebuild, I hope nobody ever does it in Toronto. 

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  • Leafs_17

    Kostka has looked good so far in a small sample 

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  • honesthockey

    Leafs_17 lets start here.

    http://www.thepensblog.com/tpb/jan2012/a-quick-history-of-pk-subbans-slew-footing.html

     

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  • Inchesstyle

    who knows what leafs will do

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    I think they’re going to trust Gardiner to do this.  It’s only been two games, but it’s painfully clear that under Carlyle, puck moving defenders are going to have a greater success than jack-of-all-trades types like Gunnarsson.  Plus, I think he’ll cost in the neighborhood of 3 million to resign, and I doubt Nonis has any intention of paying that.

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  • http://www.hockey-nerd.com Cameron

    They’re worse, you’re right.  Edmonton hasn’t been good though.  

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  • Burtonboy

    Toronto Maple Leafs ‏@leafsbuzztap
    Maple Leafs Hot Stove >> Report: Wayne Gretzky being discussed for role of President of Maple Leafs

     http://buzztap.com/-WcLbai 

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  • wiski

    Dave Stubbs ‏@Dave_Stubbs
    The “trade P.K.” attributed to agent Don Meehan you might have seen on Twitter is absolutely 100% untrue, Meehan tells me by text#Habs

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  • darthNihilus

    Wrong. Kulemin will be going because he’s done fuck all last year and doesn’t appear to have changed this year. In the last game at least Mac was going to the net Kulemin wasn’t. I don’t think Kulemin wants to be here and i do not believe Carlysle will give him another entire season to right himself. 

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  • Anthony Petrielli

    Thanks B Leaf.

    I figure MacArthur is as good as gone. Bozak could be moved too since he might also become a UFA, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Franson was moved as well. Nonis will have a tough decision on what to during TDD if they are in the hunt. 

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  • peterbleafs

    Why all the gone stuff?  I kind of like our lineup and wouldnt be in any hurry to move anyone unless a good deal comes along.  Moderate deals are likely available now but the trade deadline this year should be furious. 

    I like the idea of moving Mac but not till then now, that Connolly and Lombardi are gone.  My only requirement was Kadri get major ice time and that is happening. 

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  • Anthony Petrielli

    They have numerous young kids that need to start getting NHL time. So, it’s time to start getting them ice time. When it comes to MacArthur, for example, I’d rather see Frattin or even Colborne get that ice time instead. If you’re going to give Kadri major ice time, might as well get some to other kids too. 

    But hey, if they are in contention for a playoff spot, by all means keep them and go for it. 

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  • Bring_the_Cup_Home

     agree.   kostka is looking like the real deal if you ask me. 

    we have a logjam at D with too many 5 – 7 guys on the roster.  gardiner’s skillset will REALLY help our blueline and our transition game, which thus far has been lacking. 

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  • Bring_the_Cup_Home

    back to the point of the thread, i agree there’s a good chance one of reimer or scrivens will become a number one goalie in this league. 

    what i disagree with is that no teams are interested in luongo.  i think plenty of teams would be, but just don’t want to give gillis a ton for him cuz of the position he is in.  i also feel that luongo’s list of teams he’d go to would be relatively small.  and gillis won’t trade him to a rival.  so it’ll take time.

    if this thread is suggesting getting luongo is categorically a bad idea because of Backstrom, Thomas, Theordore and Garon) I have to disagree.  Luongo will provide something we haven’t had since Eddie Belfour and Cujo.  Remember what it was like back then?  Yeah….we used to win.  Of course there’s a ton more to it than that, but a veteran goalie who is gonna be good (for another 5 years most likely) and is locked up for his career?  That is worth a decent asset if you ask me. 

    Who is the question?  Not Gardiner.  Not Kadri.  Bozak and a prospect or 2nd round pick?  i’d do that.  i like bozak but he is replaceable. 

    I also feel with Luongo we stand a better chance of signing either Getzlaf or Perry  this summer if they are available, as they could see themselves as a final piece to putting the leafs over the top to being a contender.  that, and for once, we outbid the rest on one of them!!! 

    i would have no problem if i wake up tomorrow to news that luongo got traded to the leafs, as long as gardiner, reilly or kadri aren’t going the other way.  give ‘em MacA or kuli and a middle prospect (mckegg) and i’d be over the moon. 

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  • Bring_the_Cup_Home

    wow.  edmonton down 5-1 in the first. 

    they could use a goalie. 

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