Thursday Morning Mashup: Fancy Stats to the Rescue

Thursday Morning Mashup: Fancy Stats to the Rescue

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As most of you know, we usually have the Leafs Roundtable on Thursday morning and it’s something we plan, and hope, to continue with in the future. I love asking questions but sometimes the lull of the off-season, and the breadth of analysis in our blogging community, leaves you with a limited number of questions and in a state of psychosis (probably induced by my finals). Now, all this is going to change as the 2013 Entry Draft approaches and we’ve still got tons of Player Reviews and NHL Draft Profiles lined up for you guys, so stay tuned.

Today, I wanted to talk briefly about one of the links posted below regarding the Oilers Hackathon 2.0. To summarize, “the Hackathon 2.0 saw Oilers open up their vault of in-depth and historical data, welcoming contestants to submit their own analyses and present a compelling case to help the club win games.” In effect, the final analysis should yield insights that can help the team win. The contest’s winner, Michael Parkatti, used a combination of advanced stats (Corsi Rel QoC, QoT, and Zone Starts) to come up with a “Coaching Activity Index,” and will now join the Oilers’ Analytics Working Group on a full- or part-time basis.  For more details regarding his “winning” framework, check out the link below.

Let me start off by saying that I think this is a great way to engage the fan base. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen another NHL team conduct a public competition such as this, although please correct me if I’m wrong.  Imagine, for a second, having access to MLSE’s vault of statistical data and to glean into all the statistical metrics they maintain on their players.  As a bit of a data junkie, it would be a dream come-true for me, and would probably be more exciting than watching a game from one of the ACC suites.

On the other hand, I’m sure I’m not the only one who finds it slightly amusing, and not surprising, that a team like the Oilers is reaching out to fans for ideas on how to win.  Look, I’m all for capturing every competitive advantage and I believe advanced statistics has its place in the analytical toolbox.  Then again, this Analytics Working Group has been operational since the 2004-2005 lock-out and apart from their Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 2006, the Oilers’ record has been laughable ever since. (As a Leafs fan, I know I’m not one to talk…but I seem to have misplaced the fucks I used to give.) This isn’t meant to discount Parkatti’s work in any way, and by all accounts it was an extremely thorough and creative model that he put together.  However, if an organization thinks that a fan might literally possess the winning formula they’re looking for, I think they’re delusional and should consider scrutinizing other parts of their organization.

Also, I just wanted to say how awesome I think the commenters are at MLHS. In the last couple of months, I’ve learned so much just from reading your insightful posts. With this new commenting system, it makes engaging in the thread a much more enjoyable experience and I look forward to talking with you guys. In that same vein, I want to hear what you guys think.

What would you think if MLSE organized a similar competition? Would you participate? Do you think it’s a worthwhile exercise?

- – -

Morning Links

Oilers: Hackathon 2.0 Winner Announced -  Hackathon: can also be used to describe the Oilers’ season.

CBC: MLSE Inks Education Deal with U. of Windsor - If you go to U. of Windsor, I hate you.

Larry Brooks (NYP): Tortorella’s Act Wore Thin on Players - I bet somewhere deep inside, Brooks is going to miss Torts.

Vancouver Sun: Rielly Says Eakins Ready to Coach at Next Level - Not to be a dick, but I wonder what Rielly knows about the next level…certainly more than I do!

VLM: Leafs Should Learn from B. Richards Saga - A cautionary tale for Nonis & Co.

TLN: Leafs Have Good Value in Reimer and Scrivens - One word: Screimer.

PPP: Relationship Between Top-6 TOI and Shooting % - Fancy, fancy stats, so my kind of stats.

A graduate student at Columbia University, Aaron is defined by a love of nature, an intense interest in finance, and a passion for the Blue & White. Toronto born and raised, earliest Leaf memories include emulating Joe Bowen calls and carpet mini-stick during HNIC. Former D1 NCAA Tennis player. Aaron can be found on Twitter at https://twitter.com/mapleleafmuse.
425 comments
Brittish Columbia
Brittish Columbia

@mapleleafmuse Funny I didn't actually read this earlier. I guess I just miss you, so I decided to churn up your pieces. Anyhow, I think outsourcing is a good idea. Remember I told you about Goldcorp? And who is to say that the fan base doesn't possess intellectual gems?

To sum up: It's a nice idea to get the fans involved and find a passionate individual to do that job, but obviously it should only be one ingredient in the salad of success.

Now I go to die by piano

Zep2
Zep2

@rustynail Murphy can't differentiate between ballsy and bullshit . That was a horrible call and Im sure all the suits in the NHL had tight sphincters  until Seabrook scored. 


Aaron Chan
Aaron Chan

Next Player Review going up now guys.

rustynail
rustynail

Gino Reda ‏@GinoRedaTSN

6m

Just spoke with Mike Murphy, Sr Vp Hockey Ops, says Walkhom "absolutely made the ballsy correct call...and will definatley work Conf Finals"

phaneufoundlander
phaneufoundlander

Boys, what the heck is going on here? Did we lose our status and post count?

vesku35
vesku35

Where's today's Player Review, dammit! I'm entitled!

leafmealone
leafmealone

@Zep2 @rustynail I'm sure he was told what to say. In fact, I'm sure his statement wasn't even remotely written by him. It was written by someone in media relations and just read by him.

DeclanK
DeclanK moderator

@rustynail You can't screw up McKinnon, Jones or Drouin, can you?

leafmealone
leafmealone

@rustynail Did it also say that he had already tried, and that the Avs laughed at what it was he had available to offer. 

leafmealone
leafmealone

@rustynail I don't even remotely get where the Chicago half of those coincidental minors is coming from. If that's the new standard than Grabo should have got the same number of games as Ferrence for running his face into the opposing player's elbow. WTF!?

LeoTheLion
LeoTheLion

@rustynail The problem was not that he blew down coincidental minors. Because that would be the right call.

Problem was the Chicago player did nothing and then the Hawks lost their goal.

DeclanK
DeclanK moderator

@TheCanucksnaphook I left all the windows down, loaded up the dog with 2 bowls of water and prayed that there is a little breeze to keep the air moving. 

LeoTheLion
LeoTheLion

@phaneufoundlander The guys are using LiveFyre while they take their time with the new system. All of our comments are saved somewhere. For now, this is LiveFyre a much better system than disqus

Alec Brownscombe
Alec Brownscombe moderator

@vesku35 Coming a little later on today. Nazem Kadri.

rustynail
rustynail

@vesku35  where's your avatar? :)

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

If you watch closely Saad starts to throw punches on his back after getting slammed. That's the point the whistle went for the double minor, just as the puck was at the blue line.

DeclanK
DeclanK moderator

@LeoTheLion @phaneufoundlander All the comments are saved. We have to do a big data migration for all of them. 1.3 million comments between WordPress (old, old system) and Disqus. 

phaneufoundlander
phaneufoundlander

k, thanks LTL..good to know....I've been in and out of here the past few weeks and wasn't aware

vesku35
vesku35

@rustynail I am guest posting. I don't like signing up for things. It's a phobia I have. I haven't signed up for MLHS since WordPress in 2008. 

I may break my rule though, MLHS is the tits

leafmealone
leafmealone

@rustynail @DeclanK I have this image of Feaster announcing his pick. Unlike all the other GM's who get up and thank the host city and blather on a few niceties, Feaster steps up and says "red rover, red rover, we call the kid from house league over." lol

leafmealone
leafmealone

@Xxxxxnew He doesn't throw "punches". He half-heartedly, and with his feet in the air and his back on the ice, makes a push/punch to get the opposing player's hands out of his face while he's being held down.  

rustynail
rustynail

@Great Dane @TheCanucksnaphook @rustynailSchultz wasnicknamedMr. Nasty[1]byPierre McGuireearly in 2010.

At the end of the 2009–10 season, Schultz led the NHL in the +/- statistical category with a +50 rating, becoming the first player from Washington to win the NHL Plus/Minus Award.

A record was set by Schultz in the 2011 playoffs in Washington`s 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semi-finals. He was on the ice for a postseason record 119 consecutive minutes without being scored upon in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, before Steve Downie of the Tampa Bay Lightning scored a goal.

DeclanK
DeclanK moderator

@TheCanucksnaphook I've tapped out on trying to "get a tan" or even "get color". I am fluorescent white or burned red. Thinking I might wear a big straw hat from now on. Or a cowboy hat.  Just given up on the sun and I agreeing. Ever.