Friday Morning Mashup: No No Norris

Friday Morning Mashup: No No Norris

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It must almost be the offseason, because NHL Awards have once again caused a stir regarding the voting structure and overall legitimacy of the accolades.  Nowhere is this more apparent than with the Norris Trophy, where the Montreal Canadiens’ PK Subban won out by a hair over Minnesota Wild’s Ryan Suter.  He did so despite the words, “awarded to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position” right on the darn trophy.  Alas, with the results of the past two seasons, the statement about ‘all-around ability’ is looking demonstrably untrue for Norris voting.

Earlier in the year, I made an impassioned case that Dion Phaneuf’s numbers were quite worthy of a Norris nomination.  While Phaneuf ultimately fell off the point scoring pace to warrant a nomination, the piece articulated the make-up of a Norris-calibre defender.  Phaneuf fit the profile of a nominee for the award in the mould of Zdeno Chara or Shea Weber.  I put forward Subban’s name as a contender for the trophy in April for this reason below.

The award praises exceptionality by a defenseman, even at the expense of good defense.  Offensive exceptionality will suffice to make up for poorer competition numbers, high offensive zone starts (which encourage better offensive numbers), and a high PDO.  Mike Green came second in Norris voting in consecutive seasons probably because he was getting five minutes of ice time a game on a then-stellar Washington power play.

As the nominations and votes showed, Subban edged out Suter, while the oft-injured but high-scoring Kris Letang played the role of also-ran.  And, boy, was Subban’s offense exceptional among his peers.  He tied Letang for the league lead in points with 38 (11 goals, 27 assists) in 42 games.  He finished second in goal scoring and second in power play goals (behind partner Andrei Markov).  He finished second on the team in points, propelling the high-octane Habs to second play in the Eastern Conference before ultimately getting handled by the Ottawa Senators in five playoff games.

Extrapolated over an 82-game season, PK would have recorded 74 points, not far off Erik Karlsson’s totals for the Senators last season when he won the Norris Trophy.  He did well better than Phaneuf, whose 28 points were good enough for a top 10 finish and some faint praise for it.  But in terms of all around ability to defend against the league’s elite? I’d give the advantage to Phaneuf.

This isn’t to say that Phaneuf had a better season than Subban or should have won the Norris instead.  He shouldn’t have, but the Leaf captain deserved better than his 11th place finish with his terrific two-way performance this season.  While they were both the top defensemen on their respective teams, their utilization this season were worlds apart.  Subban’s was far more exceptional to the naked eye, but Phaneuf was a true leader of a defense corps.

All that said it should also be appreciated how one dimensional Subban’s offense and subsequent game was.  26 of his 38 points came on the power play, roughly 68% of his total for the year.  And while Subban has always been a terrific special teams’ contributor, it’s a huge spike compared to his production the two previous seasons.  Put into some perspective, in 2011-12 Karlsson managed to record only 28 of his 78 points on the man advantage, about half Subban’s rate.  (Karlsson also had 5 game winning goals to Subban’s zero, suggesting a slightly more impactful goal scoring touch).

Indeed, when compared against each other, Karlsson looks a lot less specialized and more consistent on offense than Subban does.  Karlsson’s also more worthy of being deemed the most dominant defender league-wide, to me anyway, since the significant majority of the game is played at evens.

Of course, the other side of Subban’s game… defense… well, he’s no Chara or Weber, and certainly no Phaneuf.  According to www.behindthenet.ca, Subban skated his way to a Norris on 23 papery soft minutes a night of work.  He started 53% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and did so against some of the softest competition among defenders league wide.  Subban appeared to benefit and control the flow of play against the second and third lines of most teams.  When Coach Michel Therrien had options for the league’s 23rd ranked shorthanded unit, he’d play Josh Gorges, Raphael Diaz, Alexei Emelin or Andrei Markov ahead of Subban, witnessed by his meagre 1:38 of shorthanded ice time per game.   Hard to be considered ‘all around’ when you’re not relied upon for the toughest assignments.

As it relates to Phaneuf’s season with the Maple Leafs, his usage was a lot simpler than Subban’s.  And a lot dirtier.  Under Randy Carlyle as with Ron Wilson before him, he was the first choice in every situation.  First power play; first PK unit; in the last minute of play.  He did so against the league’s best in putting the puck on net, evidenced by his league-leading 3.173 Corsi Quality of Competition score.  And despite nearly three and a half minutes on the power play a night, Phaneuf’s utilization was far more defense-minded, witnessed by his 41.3% Offensive zone starts at even strength.  Beyond that, he was tops on the Leafs defense corps with three minutes of penalty kill time per night on the league’s second best unit, roughly twice as much time as Subban.

I’d further conjecture that a lot of the high marks given to Subban’s 2013 season are coming from the accelerated returns of terrific linemates.  Subban and Markov combined for 15 goals and 49 points on the power play.  No two defenders on the same team came anywhere close to those astonishing numbers, precious few forwards.  This isn’t to suggest that Subban was riding anyone’s coattails, but Phaneuf certainly didn’t spend nearly five minutes a game on the power play with a perennial all-star on the other point.

To reiterate: this isn’t to say that Phaneuf had a better season than Subban.  What I am saying is that context matters when it comes to evaluating the scope and value of defenders.   PK Subban was slotted into an offensive role, and excelled offensively in 2013.  Dion Phaneuf was thrust into a much different shutdown role, and yet still made admirable contributions offensively.  Who was better at scoring shouldn’t matter as much as it appears to for a defensive award, with both the Norris and Selke trophies guilty of this.

From the games and score sheet, I know which guy I’d rather have on the power play as opposed to the penalty kill.  I also know who I’d rather have on the ice in the last minute of play, tied or carrying a lead.  Yet these choices also dictate the box stats and, thusly, the hardware at end of season.

So as a brief mental exercise, let’s consider role reversal.  How would Phaneuf do flanking a first rate offensive defenseman?  With more than a minute of extra power play time? Against third liners?  With more starts in the offensive zone?  How would Subban do carrying Mike Kostka and getting shelled from the league’s top forwards while 4-on-5?  Phaneuf’s 2008 Norris nomination, on the strength of a 60-point season, suggests that he would find Subban’s role a far smoother transition than the reverse.

Ultimately, what it really says is that the current structure of NHL Award voting is extremely flawed (for the most hilarious holes poked in the process, go here).  PK Subban is the best defenseman in 2013 for being an amazing special teams rover.  He didn’t even really have the best offensive numbers for his position, either, what with an injured Letang tying Subban in points in seven fewer games.   Ultimately, the healthiest, highest scoring defender with a incomplete game won the award.

Regardless of your thoughts on the Norris, or the waning merit of the trophies in general, I think we can all agree that it’ll be hilarious when PK Subban gets an 8-year, $60-Million-plus deal next summer.

 

Links:

Anthony Petrielli wonders if the management’s rumoured pursuit of Jonathan Bernier is to reduce James Reimer’s workload.

SkinnyFish at PPP continues the long series of Carlyle Coaching Myths.

Steve Dangle at the Leafs Nation with the scandal sheet on what NHLers were earning for their services in the KHL during the lockout.  Looks like Lupes took home a decent chunk of change for nine games effort.

TSN brings you up-to-date info on the offseason’s biggest story: Lindy Ruff Watch.  The Dallas Stars just seem to love wily veterans, eh?

Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News with some Boom or Bust draft eligible for next weekend’s (wait, what?) NHL entry draft.

James Mirtle of the Globe with some more background info on the 2015/2017 World Juniors in Montreal/Toronto.

237 comments
Faalcon
Faalcon

I hope Nonis does not descend and disappear into Nothingness. The time to be proactive is now.  I would want Nonis to take positive actions like taking salary from other teams and buy-outs to get good players. I would want him to take chances and trade players and sign impact players. It is way harder when the season begins and every manager and team wants to win. 

The time to roll the dice is now or at the draft. In any event, I would NOT want Nonis to stand pat and give us a speech that  these players can put the puck in the net etc etc. I hope he means it when he says he wants upgrade at every position and if that means we can trade for a Webber with Phaneuf plus than so be it. Nothing ventured nothing gained. 

Cheap bargain signs are good, they just don't change the fortune of teams. Let's hope Nonis makes some splash at the draft.

Tim
Tim

Can't wait to see Eric Knodel, Tony Cameranesi, Tom Nilsson and Petter Granberg in the minors...

Savo43
Savo43

Nobodies really talked about this I don't think, but what are the chances of Sparks being the starter for USA at the WJC this upcoming year?? 

Savo43
Savo43

@Faalcon I heard that buying out other teams problems may result in some penalties by the league. 

mike_84
mike_84

@TheCanucksnaphook Don't like this deal. If Gunnar is to be moved he can't bring back a small 2C. He's gotta be part of a package to bring in a 2D or 1C. I'm all for trading him but its gotta be for a real need. If were trading away 2 of our better trade chips then i want something better then Gagner. Just not sold on him.

Doorman
Doorman

@rustynail It,s still pissing down real good!!!  just finished filling up 3 jerry cans of water!  just incase.

2 x24,s and lots of grub.  Im good to go!!!  lol

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

Happens every year. Faces change, angst doesn't.

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@Savo43 @Faalcon Hopefully the penalities for the teams that dumped their bad contacts.  The way around this might be trade for DP but play him in AHL/NHL for a year then buy him out because he is no good.  That shows "good" faith in the trade rather then a trade/buy out

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

I hope gunner gets that hip fixed before camp.

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

I hope they don't give Riely any spot. I'd rather see him make the team. From the dozen games I watched him play live with the Marlies this year he was still figuring out how to Play in the AHL.

Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

@Savo43 @TheCanucksnaphook  Is Gagner better than Kadri? Likely no, quite a similar player to but kadri plays with more of an edge. 

 No reason to give up Gunnarson who handle 25 minutes a night against the top competition.Trading him may make sense if you can\t get a deal done. Although I'd rather target someone like Colin Wilson who plays a much bigger game than Gagner.

wendelsfist
wendelsfist

@Xxxxxnew The 2013 draft is deep but there will be some disappointed teams and busts

Savo43
Savo43

@Xxxxxnew thatd be nice. What are the rules for signing bad contracts this offseason, only to compliance buy them out next season? 

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

League's only warning I've heard is they won't put up with cap circumvention tricks this time around. Don't think taking on bad contracts qualifies.

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

Like I said, I watched him play games live this season, and he was a kid playing against men in his own end. Flashes of skill but till a ways to go. Eakins seemed to think the same way after the season.

“Obviously he sees the game offensively very well,” Eakins said. “He’s in a battle defensively, the guys are bigger, stronger, faster so we’ll just keep moving along like we do with all young players. “Listen, I know he [was] our number five pick in the draft, but to me he’s another prospect. We’ll put on slow bake and [we won’t] rush.”

Xxxxxnew
Xxxxxnew

From my experience its not uncommon for forwards who spend a season or two in the A to play better in the NHL but its rare for defencemen who just turned 19 three months ago and had sat out a full season just a year ago with a bad knee. When I watched him play he had trouble adapting to the pro game in his own end. His ice time gradually dwindled in the Marlies playoffs until they weren't using him.

Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

Played 60 in the WHL, 14 in the AHL regular season and 8 in the playoffs. 82 exactly not including the world juniors, or the subway super series?


Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

@Xxxxxnew While I likely agree with you that he should wait there are quite a few instances where defensemen do better in the NHL over the AHL. The game is more structured in the NHL.

Savo43
Savo43

@Mitch_S2 You fail to acknowledge in this assessment the difference in dynamic that JVR and Kessel represent, under a more structured and strategic system, with more PP minutes and opportunity Gagner would get here. Eberle and Hall bring the same things to the table that Gagner does, whereas JVR and Kessel bring two entirely different skillsets. Theres a reason we were as successful as we were last year, and its not because Kessel and JVR aren't better than Eberle and Hall. Gagner would do better in the same position Bozak thrived under, thats an easy bet. 

Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

Gagner has been a 40 point center for the last 5 years.  This year he almost double his PPG over the previous 4, so it's not exactly an improvement, more likely a statistical outlier. 

Also theres no reason to say his point totals would increase. It's not like he was KEssel playing with Crabb. He spent the vast majority of the year with Hall and Eberle. A very similar production to a KEssel jvr combo. No reason to suggest his point total would go up.

Savo43
Savo43

@Mitch_S2 @TheCanucksnaphook To say Gagner wouldn't have any where near the impact Gunnar would is a little silly though tbh. Love Gunnar, but Gagner could be a ppg center on this team (he's still only 23, and getting better every year). Next to Kessel and JVR, sky would be the limit. I think Blacker in the next year or two will be more than able to eclipse Gunnarsson's effectiveness out there, though i did love Gunnar against the B's this past playoff. 

Savo43
Savo43

@Mitch_S2 @TheCanucksnaphook Yeah me and my friend were talkin about acquiring Letang last night. Him and Phaneuf would be unreal..but 15 million between the two of them would be ridiculous. I'd rather wait and see what Gardiner and Rielly can become. 

Savo43
Savo43

@Mitch_S2 @Savo43 @TheCanucksnaphook Gagner is quicker than Kadri, better on draws, and PROBABLY a better finisher -based on his release- (though how can you argue with 2 hattricks?) but Kadri is the better playmaker -imo- with slightly better hands, a more physical and grittier dimension to his game, and definitely more self confidence, which goes a long way. I'd love to have both of them on our team. I see Gagner as a Kadri/Bozak hybrid in a lot of ways. 

Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

@TheCanucksnaphook Yeah not that I'm against moving him either, just not for a guy like Gagner. 

Letang would be a good target ther, although I'm pretty sure Gardiner would be there first choice. 

Mitch_S2
Mitch_S2

@TheCanucksnaphook Sam Gagner is a decent player but has no wear near the impact Gunnar has for our team. Gunnar may be our second most impactful defenseman.