Where does Dave Bolland fit in?

Where does Dave Bolland fit in?

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Please give a warm welcome to Taylor Wright, the newest member of the MLHS writing team. Be sure to follow him @taylor_wright.

On Sunday at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis acquired centre Dave Bolland from the Stanley Cup-winning Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for picks 51, 117 and a fourth round pick in 2014.

You knew that already, I’m guessing. So let’s take a look at how Bolland was used in Chicago, how well he performed in his role and what we can expect from him as a Leaf.

HOW WAS HE USED?

This past season Bolland spent his time on the ice with Patricks Kane and Sharp, and ranked 6th in TOI/G among Hawks forwards (excluding Brandon Pirri and Ben Smith who combined for 2 games played). Bolland’s 12:58 of even strength TOI/G ranked him 7th among Chicago forwards (excluding Smith and Hayes who combined for 11 games played). Bolland did however benefit from the fifth most power play time per game among Chicago forwards, a whopping 2:28 per game. Bolland’s power play time was spent mostly with Kane, Stalberg, Leddy, and Sharp. Bolland played an average of 0:52 on the penalty kill a game, good for 7th among Chicago forwards (excluding Smith’s one game).

Bolland played against some pretty tough competition this season, ranking first among Hawks forwards if we exclude the 10 games of Jimmy Hayes. Bolland also had the third-lowest offensive zone start numbers of the Hawks forwards at 49.6%, a testament to how dominant Chicago is in terms of possession.

What does all of this tell us about how Bolland was used this season? Well, his even strength line mates were two highly skilled, top-six players and he saw over twice as much time on the power play as he did on the penalty kill. He faced the toughest competition of any regular Blackhawk forward and his zone usage was similarly tough (but not McClement or Grabovski tough).

HOW DID HE DO?

In terms of production, Bolland had 7 goals, 7 assists and 14 points. He earned 10 of his points (70%) at 5v5 and 3 points (21%) on the power play. For context, Bolland spent about 79% of his time on the ice at even strength and about 15% of his time on the power play.

In looking the always-useful behindthenet.ca, we can see the rate of production for Bolland per 60 minutes of 5v5 time (0.69G, 0.41A1, 0.14A2, 1.24P). That point rate is 14th best among Hawks forwards (11th if you remove Morin’s 3 games, Smith’s 1 and Hayes’ 10). If we compare that to his most common line mates, we see that Kane’s production is 1.02G, 1.26A1, 0.39A2, 2.67P and Sharp’s is 0.76G, 0.76A1, 0.30A2, 1.82P. So Bolland’s even strength scoring pace is drastically lower than that of his highly-skilled 2013 linemates.

Considering that the seemingly outgoing Bozak was a king on the dot, how does our newest centre fare? Well, Bolland’s faceoff rate was a pretty dismal 46.1%, though a quick look at how he fared in the defensive zone tells a slightly different story. In the defensive zone (at even strength), Bolland was on the ice for 140 and 74 of those face-offs were won for a 52.8% win rate. Because of the data we can only look at the wins while he was on the ice, but considering he played with Sharp and Kane mostly it makes sense to assume that he was the one taking them (if that’s not the case then please correct me). Also of interest is the difference between Bolland’s home and away face-off performance: at home Bolland won 51.4% of his face-offs but just 39.9% while on the road.

It is of course important to point out that Bolland was injured this season and missed 13 regular season games and 5 playoff games with a variety of injuries: leg, upper-body, foot, and groin. If Bolland is going to contribute significantly to the Maple Leafs next season he’ll need to stay healthy: in the last five season’s he’s played just 292 of 376 games.

And finally, if we look at the possession numbers we see that Bolland has some of the worst numbers on the Hawks. In fact his numbers look quite similar to Jay McClement’s numbers in a similar context of usage (though McClement’s zone starts appeared much tougher).

The big question is how this season stacks up to previous seasons of Dave Bolland? The production at even strength is roughly what we can expect from Dave Bolland, similar to last season’s production and down a bit from two seasons prior. But his possession numbers this year are a dramatic departure from what he’s been accomplishing in the past, and it would probably be a safe bet to say that he’ll be better next season in that regard.

WHERE DOES HE FIT HERE?

So, where does Dave Bolland fit on a roster headed in to next season with Kadri, Grabovski and McClement as the other centres?

In an interview after the trade, Nonis said, “Randy won’t pigeonhole him as a third line centre,” and that he “may be put in a more prominent role than he had in Chicago.” It’s hard to decipher what Nonis is specifically envisioning here, but the comments do concern me a little.

Bolland’s even strength production, despite being on a line with two very talented players, doesn’t appear to be enough to make him a strong fit for a top-six role. With Bozak apparently leaving the Leafs organization, Leafs fans can rejoice knowing that a third liner will no longer be centering Phil Kessel. But if Bolland is being offered an expanded role, then the same problem may rear its ugly head.

The success of this trade seems to hinge on Bolland’s ability to play tough minutes and free up the more offensively-inclined Grabovski, who was stuck with the checking role this season. In Bolland the Leafs are also adding a player that until this season was a mainstay on the Chicago penalty kill, an area hurt by the departures of Komarov and (likely) Bozak. Bolland’s power play production is another area that he has excelled in the past, though this season was disappointing in that respect, and the Leafs could certainly use an upgrade on Bozak in that area.

The good news is that Nonis called Bolland “the type of player that thrives” under Randy Carlyle’s coaching style. Hopefully Carlyle sees Bolland as his Sammy Pahlsson and not another Tyler Bozak.

1161 comments
Ensign
Ensign

I'm excited for next season. I like what we have down the middle and don't think Vinny will be worth it. Seems a lot of folk are writing Grabo off after one bad season where he was miscast

LN-093
LN-093

So, those speculating it was the Bozak camp and not the leafs that wanted 8 years were right.

@DarrenDreger16m

@bruce_arthur. I didn't say Leafs are offering. I've heard that's the proposal on the table. I believe, a response from Newport.

Ensign
Ensign

I thought we were buying out Komi

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

komi to the isles for a 7th makes sense for both teams

JMAC17
JMAC17

I like the look of Bozak, Kadri, Boland, McClement over Kadri, Grabovski, Boland McClement.

Area49th
Area49th

CapGeek@capgeek2m

#NYIsles are $12.5M from the cap floor with eight roster openings (including DiPietro compliance buyout).

CanuckUKinToronto
CanuckUKinToronto

@Ensign  Grabo was not just miscast- he was horrible.  He had the worse plus minus of any player in the playoffs as well and also was still unproductive when it counted.. He was at best ineffective- a lot of activity and no results.  I would prefer someone else on the ice for not only that money but that ice time

ConnorCrisp
ConnorCrisp

@LN-093 I have a sinking feeling he will be wearing a toilet seat on his chest come october.

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

@LN-093 NoNo is from the Burke school ... no one is getting an seven year contract, let alone eight, particularly not Bozak.

PeterZeroOne
PeterZeroOne

@Black_Hawk why, will they have trouble making league minimum for salaries?  And if so, why Komisarek and not another fat contract from around the NHL?

Cameron19
Cameron19

@Black_Hawk I'm sure they could find someone who can play in the NHL to eat salary. 

djamon
djamon

@JMAC17 Boland will not get Bozak's numbers...but hopefully he'll provide the leadership.

Ensign
Ensign

What is Bozak thinking even asking for that

Ensign
Ensign

Getting tight for making a trade no?

lister
lister

@PeterZeroOne @Black_Hawk The point is the Isles have just shelled out $$$ to make Dipietro go away. The Isles need to get to the floor. Komi's cap hit is greater than actual salary.

Area49th
Area49th

@JMAC17 Apparently thier camp tabled a 8 yr less than 5 mill per season. See where it goes from here

JMAC17
JMAC17

@Area49th @JMAC17 Think Bozak will come out with a 4-5 year deal around 4.5-4.75.  If that gets done then we have to move Grabovski if we want to sign any UFA's.

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

@lister @Marlies Man @Ensign No, I agree. It is, and it likely is a negotiating tactic from Bozak. I'm willing to bet he wants to stay with the team, but is also looking to get a deal at least close to what he might get on the open market. Where else would he be has high profile a player, has a close buddy in Kessel who has his back and other longtime teammates now and a team on (hopefully) the rise. Toronto is a good situation for Bozie.

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

@lister @Ensign Not always. What about the first offer from the NHL to the PA during the lockout. That didn't exactly get negotiations off on a good note.

lister
lister

@Ensign The first offer is always ridiculous. Judging seriousness starts with the second offer from the player.

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

@Ensign lol right, Nonis and the boys in management have a bunch of blank stares after seeing that come in.

Ensign
Ensign

But you can't start so high that nobody takes you seriously

Marlies Man
Marlies Man

@Ensign I dunno, unless leafs were looking three or four, so he's going high, hoping they can meet in the middle.

lister
lister

@Ensign It's called negotiation. Player starts high, team starts low. Maybe meet somewhere in the middle.

leafmealone
leafmealone

@Black_Hawk @Cameron19 The only attraction would be saving a million bucks on cap hit vs. salary for a team that always comes in just at the salary floor.

PeterZeroOne
PeterZeroOne

@ConnorCrisp @Yaknowwhat hah, I tried to see if Bolland was any help in that regard.  Nope.  No attempts this past season,

1 goal on 5 shootout attempts in 2011-12

0 for 1 in 2010-11

0 for 1 in 2009-10

0 for 3 in 2008-09

So... one shootout goal in the last 5 years.  Bozak's got him beat, yeah.