An Addendum on Friday Morning’s Scoring Chance Post

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On Friday morning, I took some shots at a particular writer at the PPP community that were misinterpreted. I will be taking the time to make some clarifications here.

The scoring chance tangent of my previous post had everything to do with Greg Cronin’s interview last week with Alec Brownscombe. Cronin explicitly stated that he believed that the Leafs were not out-possessed last season and made a mention that the coaching staff tracked scoring chances. I thought the premise was odd given that scoring chances are generated via shots – more shots, more scoring chances. Unfortunately, we only have one source to track scoring chances. Cam Charron will not be publishing the numbers pulled from last season, so we’re left with using Greg Sinclair’s excellent shot-tracker website.

By the way, apologies to Charron for my persistence about his scoring chance tally. I wasn’t aware he had already posted his reasons for refusing to divulge that information. I was tweeting from my phone and was on my way out the door for the weekend. So confusion aside, I don’t like it, but I understand why he’s refusing to share it. I just wanted to find out what Cronin is talking about.

According to www.somekindofninja.com site the Leafs were out-chanced at even-strength 392 to 355. I had also stated that the discrepancy of the scoring chances were not that significant for this reason from @Taylor_Wright:

That said, I think it’s safe to say that the Leafs were soundly out-possessed at even strength – the shots taken, and not just scoring chances, by their opponents is too significant to ignore. As said before, more shots lead to more chances. However, many members from PPP and MLHS have noted that the Leafs did a fairly good job throughout the season suppressing scoring chances, but the Leafs’ first pass game exacerbated the shots against issue.

SkinnyPPPhish took a look at goals given up at four increments of distance – less than 10 feet, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, and 30+. The chart he provided showed that the Leafs were below the league average in goals given up – e.g., the Leafs were indisputably poor in suppressing scoring chances. Since the cumulative totals suggested that the Leafs were poor defensively, I had this theory that it wasn’t the system, but the goaltender: Ben Scrivens.

A while ago, Anthony Petrielli posited that the system Carlyle had in place was design to not only protect the low defensive comportment of the Leafs defense, but to funnel shots into the goaltender. As we can see, James Reimer played into that theorized system completely:

James Reimer: 34 goals, 262 shots: .870%

But Ben Scrivens didn’t:

Ben Scrivens: 25 goals, 128 shots: .805%

I think it is important to highlight that the Leafs were a totally different team with Reimer in net. For whatever reason, Scrivens lacked the ability to stop scoring chances at or above the league average.

Last season, the Leafs gave up an estimated total of 392 scoring chances. Of those chances given up, they gave up 59 goals for a save percentage of .849. I took the liberty of charting the other 29 team’s even strength scoring chances and goals given up.

Scoring Chances

A few notes from the chart above:

a) Edmonton had the league’s best save percentage, but also the worst at suppressing scoring chances;
b) Chicago was surprisingly one of the worst teams in giving up scoring chances, but somehow managed to keep the puck out of the net;
c) New Jersey was the league’s best at suppressing scoring chances (worth noting that Mark Fraser compared the Leafs defensive system to the Devils;

So to summarize the chart, the Leafs were 8th overall in suppressing scoring chances, at league average in both goals against and save percentage. These numbers do NOT line up with SkinnyPPPhish’s conclusions. While total shots against were definitely an issue, scoring chances were not. If the Leafs wanted to suppress scoring chances, they did an excellent job of it last season.

I thought about the numbers in front of me and theorized that many of the teams who managed to suppress scoring chances and / or prevent resulting goals had a very strong defense – Los Angeles, Chicago, etc. Or had incredible goaltending – New York Rangers, Columbus, etc. Or both. For me, the Leafs result goes back to what Petrielli said about the Leafs’ defensive system: the defense was atrocious and the goaltenders needed to play into the shot funneling. While Reimer played his role, Scrivens did not. This might partially explain why the Leafs traded for upside in Jonathan Bernier.

I’m still not convinced that Cronin was giving us the entire story. We know that the Leafs have their own in-house shot trackers – this is indisputable as every team has some arrangement of video and stat tracking. Carlyle has made a few mentions about the shots against being an issue, but if I am remembering correctly, he inferred that the issue had to do with execution – it may also suggest a personnel issue. Unfortunately, thanks to the many topics on this subject, Google turned up too many results. So until someone finds the article, you’ll have to take my word for it.

Some of the issues are as followed:

1) The lack of a consistent breakout game absolutely robbed the Leafs of momentum in many games this season. In some sequences, in particular against Boston during the first round, the Leafs were hemmed in their own end unable to move the puck out of their zone;
2) The rotation of the centre in lieu of a defenseman moving to cover the net did not always result in good board coverage. This might be one of the execution issues that Carlyle referred to;
3) Because the Leafs used a variant of a box plus one system, they were usually down one extra break out option;
4) The wingers often broke out of the zone and ahead of the play to beat the defensemen for a scoring chance.

All these issues compounded the shot suppression problem. My hope is that with a full training camp and a positive outcome with Franson’s contract negotiation, with improvements from the defense with Gardiner taking a full time role in the Leafs top-four, the organization can move forward in suppressing shots, while maintaining their proficiency in eliminating scoring chances against.

I hope my explanation clears up Friday morning’s many questions.

  • MLHS_Luke

    Thanks

  • rustynail

    Thanks for the clarificatiom

  • Cam Charron

    There is still no indication that suppressing scoring chances relative to total shots is a team-level talent. That has yet to be shown.
    Some of your conclusions can be explained by arena bias. Arenas track shot locations different. MSG is notorious for putting shots very close to the net. New Jersey had 218 “scoring chances” on the road and just 165 at home. The Rangers had 211 on the road but an amazing 267 at home.
    There just isn’t the consistency in any way of tracking for us to conclude that ANY of this is at all relevant to the future.

    • MLHS_Luke

      Cam Charron In case no one else says it, props for coming in here and being respectful in your debate.  It’s good to get both sides of an argument, as long as it stays classy.

      • Cam Charron

        MLHS_Luke It’s a situation that’s clearly caused a lot of confusion.
        Generally I use scoring chances because they sync up well with possession statistics. It’s a good way to get people involved in analytics since they see how much the data syncs up. Over 48 games… perhaps it didn’t as well as I’d hoped.

        • MLHS_Luke

          Cam Charron MLHS_Luke It would be a great idea for you to write a tutorial article on how you do it, and then follow it up during the season with a post game stats report.  It might be better received at PPP, but I’d read it.

        • Peggy Lee

          Cam Charron 
          You didn’t like that the data didn’t confirm your “hopes” so you canned it.

    • Anthony Petrielli

      Cam Charron What’s the margin of error for the home/road bias overall throughout the league?

      • Cam Charron

        Anthony Petrielli I’m planning on going through it. Haven’t looked into it much, but those were just two examples I pulled because both sites are notorious for having pretty quirky data.
        If somebody ever points out that Martin Brodeur has a real low career save percentage, just point out that they probably under count shots in New Jersey.

        • Anthony Petrielli

          Cam Charron Anthony Petrielli New York in particular is notorious for “interesting” data so I was just curious if any work has been done on that. Thanks.

    • Peggy Lee

      Cam Charron”There is still no indication that suppressing scoring chances relative
      to total shots is a team-level talent. That has yet to be shown.”
      A more accurate statement is “Armed only with the crude measurements available to me, I am not party to evidence that suppressing scoring chances relative
      to total shots is a team-level talent.”
      In the past two weeks we’ve seen two officials from a NHL team armed with superior data collection and analysis opportunities suggest they have such evidence.

  • Doorman

    5-0 Leafs!!!  That,s the stat I care about!!!  lol

    • Mind Bomb

      Doorman Hahhah D man

    • dlb eh

      Doorman 
      list off the Habs games results if you want

  • hometeem

    thanx for the write up…..again solid stuff

  • wendelsfist

    More proof that matches Cronin’s comment on how the leafs both suppressed quality scoring chances against and amplified quality scoring chances for at the team level.    Great write up here.

    • Cam Charron

      wendelsfist No, that’s not quite it.

  • MaxwellHowe

    MorganReilly, couldn’t agree more with the finalpoints raised.  The achilles heel of the Leafs is the inability to move the puck out of their own end.  Whether this is an issue of personnel (it is, in my opinion) or the system employed by coaches, improving this aspect of the game is key to the Leafs future next season.

    • MLHS_Luke

      MaxwellHowe Yea, and the thought of losing Franson doesn’t make me feel any better about that.  Cam wrote a good article about Franson: http://theleafsnation.com/2013/7/29/ruminating-on-cody-fransons-future?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

      • MaxwellHowe

        MLHS_Luke MaxwellHowe I can’t believe it would happen, but if the Leafs are forced to trade Franson it would be a huge failure on the part of Nonis.

  • Dink

    huh

    • dlb eh

      @Dink 
      seems the site has died.  i can’t post my 12 cents

      • dlb eh

        oh but this worked…wtf

        • dlb eh

          when we’re watching the game (and not talking to other people…really watching the game) we get the feeling like we’re on our heels, or we’re on the attack. we feel it when the guys can’t take a pass, or make one. we feel it when we’re getting physically dominated, or whatever.
          last year, i felt FAR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, that we were the better team for the better part of most games. there was a lull in there at one point where it felt like we were hanging on, and the goalies played well enough for us to get out of that stretch even steven, or whatever. not a collapse.

        • dlb eh

          so all this shit about us getting out-chanced all year, where is it from? why didn’t the writers here notice that at all? i mean, we were talking about how the Leafs seemed to be a lot tigher defensively than we were used to.
          all the while i was saying how the biggest turnaround to our fortune was a healthy Reimer and his steady play (not spectacular…steady…meaning not a lot of weak ones).

        • dlb eh

          we felt all year that we kept quality chances to a minimum. why are we suddenly using statistics NOW to change the way we felt THEN when we were watching the games with our invested emotions? wouldn’t we be more likely to think the worst back then? WHAT IS GOING ON?

        • dlb eh

          to sum it up.  Cronin said everything in his interview that i thought all year.
          of course there is a lot of room to improve.  but i also remember watching a handful of CHI games as they went undefeated into the 20’s and they were outclassed for 10 minutes a night in almost every game too.
          every team is capable of cranking it up and shitting the bed.
          we’re getting better.  we’re going to crank it up more than shit the bed.  if you want perfect, you aren’t going to get that anywhere, but at least our coaches and our management are thinking like hockey people should.  good enough for me.

  • Optimustic

    I’m not sure about the #s, but there were games that we were out possessed that we didn’t give up a lot of good scoring chances.  There were also some games that we were both out possessed and out chanced. 
      Some games we seemed to be able to keep the shots to the perimeter making easier saves for Reimer and Scrivens, some games we didn’t.  I hope it’s relative to the experience under the new coach and that it’ll get better and more consistent.

    • dlb eh

      Optimustic 
      i agree.  if we were outpossessed too often this place would have lit up.  there was far less negativity here last year than could be explained if there were serious concerns about possession and scoring chances.  things were not bad at all.
      check this stat: of all the members who are always “positive” (appologists?) and all the negative “nancies”, how often did the nancies flood the boards here versus the oblivious happy people?  i mean, after a good night the Simmons weren’t typically here in force.  after the Leafs shit the bed, they were lining up 12 deep to point to all the flaws.
      suck on that stat.

      • Optimustic

        dlb eh Optimustic Sorry for the late response, but I went looking for the GDT’s thinking I could tell by our posts which games we did well in and which games we didn’t do so well in, but all the posts were deleted when we switched from Disqus.

  • dlb eh

    i also believe Cronin was holding something back, or leaving some stuff out.  i’m sure they pay attention to a number of things, and he didn’t want to make it seem like they are stats focused when something visually tells them what they already need to know.  good read today.

    • rustynail

      dlb eh why would they let their competition know what metrics they use?

  • dlb eh

    you know, we can see all you 56 listeners … your webcam is on

    • Optimustic

      dlb eh Ya can’t see Doorman though,  he’s the one behind the bingobabe.

      • Mind Bomb

        Optimustic dlb eh Thanks for the Visual :)
        P

        • Optimustic

          Mind Bomb Optimustic dlb eh I kinda thought he might reply, as he is logged on.

        • Mind Bomb

          Optimustic Mind Bomb dlb eh depends where the Bingo Babe is, he might not be able to type. or speak P

        • Optimustic

          Mind Bomb Optimustic dlb eh Lol,   He may not be able to see the screen for that matter.

      • playoff nut

        Optimustic dlb eh yea I saw the /her shadow over here thought it was Gozilla lmao

        • dlb eh

          playoff nut Optimustic dlb eh 
          that wasn’t a tail you saw.  that godzilla was standing backwards looking over the shoulder at … something …

        • Mind Bomb

          dlb eh playoff nut Optimustic He was playing Pacific Rim Job ?
          :)

        • Optimustic

          playoff nut Optimustic dlb eh ha ha.   Godzilla would be about the right size I’d imagine.

        • playoff nut

          dlb eh playoff nut Optimustic Lmao at Something? I dont want to know ,run ,run for your lives

    • Alec Brownscombe

      The site is misbehaving right now… I can barely get on. Looking into it.

      • Optimustic

        Alec Brownscombe I’m not having any problems,  Something tells me I better not log off when I leave to pick the boys up though.

  • Jordan29

    ……yawn

    • dlb eh

      Jordan29 
      how’s the weather where you are?

  • happy_gilmour

    to kick off some banter… anyone see this?  http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/22899543/nhl-alltime-teams-toronto-maple-leafs

    • Optimustic

      happy_gilmour Great list, Glad Tim Horton got noticed for something other than coffee.  I think Keon should have been the Centre though.  Just my opinion.  Glad Potvin was mentioned, but Cujo could have been too if he’d have spent more time here.

    • playoff nut

      happy_gilmourThat was a very good read ,Wendel Clark, Rick Vaive, Dave Keon, Darryl Sittler, Bob Pulford, Johnny
      Bower, Felix Potvin, Lanny McDonald, Ron Ellis, Doug Gilmour, Ted
      Kennedy, Red Horner, Charlie Conacher, Babe Dye, Hap Day … I don’t
      think any current-era Leaf is in the conversation but a guy like http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/players/playerpage/1133422/phil-kessel could get there

    • Mattmark

      happy_gilmour
      I never saw Broda play, so I can’t say yes or no about him.  Of the
      Leafs goalies I have seen play, though, Bower was easily the best.  This
      isn’t just nostalgia speaking… years after he retired I watched Bower
      play in an old-timers’ game and he still sparkled!No argument
      with Horton, Salming, Armstrong and Mahavlich–all non-controversial
      picks.  At centre I’d favour Keon and Sittler over Sundin (no knock on
      Sundin–he was terrific), and Gilmour is certainly in the mix.  If these
      four were skating for the current version of Leafs you definitely wouldn’t hear
      any complaints about our lacking a bona fide number one centre!

    • Xxxxxnew

      Keon won four Cups and was awarded the Conn Smyrhe trophy as the best player in the playoffs and was the single biggest difference between the Leafs and other teams in the finals. He was dubbed by Montreal sports writers as the Canadiens killer.

  • playoff nut

    How about them leafs eh ? they beat the Seneturs once last night and tied them the next ,Leafs Tv was working here last night,so was the beer

  • Mattmark

    “The lack of a consistent breakout game absolutely robbed the Leafs of
    momentum in many games this season. In some sequences, in particular
    against Boston during the first round, the Leafs were hemmed in their
    own end unable to move the puck out of their zone.”
    No fan with eyes should need stats to confirm this, but plenty of evidence exists (some of it in this very thread) that some fans manage to remain in denial about it.  There’s vast a difference between chipping the puck out of your own end to relieve the pressure after desperate struggle and emerging from it in an organized way that has the other team scrambling even before you hit their blueline.  The young Leafs have yet to graduate from the first mode to the second, whereas the Bruins do it consistently.  This has less to do with the respective ‘systems’ the two teams employ than with the Bruins ability to execute, which in turn is predicated upon topnotch one-on-one and stickhandling skills.
    Leafs have improved, but they still visibly fall short of the standard that allows very good teams to turn defense into attack the moment they take custody of the puck in their own zone.

  • Biltmore

    I maybe played quite a few years in goal and have a couple thoughts for guys reading all this stuff but have never played net….
    If I have a choice between facing a slapshot from the blue line with a guy screening me, and a shot from 10′ closer but no screen, I’ll take the shot from 10′ closer. If I can see the puck and shooter’s blade, plus his legs, how he’s twisting his torso… all this information is stored in a goalie’s head and all provide information what’s probably about to happen. These stats of scoring distance don’t take into consideration every intangible at play. There gets a point where a guy is shooting from so close that it’s near impossible to stop if he’s accurate. The eyes have to tell the brain what it sees, the brain has to tell the glove or whatever to move and stop the puck. If the shot comes from 3′ away there’s no time to react but just try and block. But like I said, if the shooter is accurate then blocking is out the window and the puck’s in the net. 
    Look at Franson’s effectiveness with his half slapper…. it’s not a 95+ mph shot, but it’s served up with traffic in front, and it’s accurate to the top corners of the net. That type of shot is possibly one of the best scoring scenarios outside of a straight breakaway. Bobby Orr could hit coffee cups in the corners of the net with his point shot, he feasted on this with the same type of half windup. 
    No goalie is going to go shotless in a game, but he will have his preferences on what type of shot he faces. If a team is built where the players are on the same page, it goes a long way to effective defense. 
    Lastly, when hemmed in their own zone teams can flip the puck high over the blueline to clear when there’s no lane on the boards or elsewhere to clear a puck. No need to ice it, just a high flip that will stop before the other team’s blue line.

    • Mattmark

      Biltmore Interesting post, B…. but there’s something you should know about how your body works.  Your brain doesn’t have much to say about what your glove-hand does; your reactions are much more automatic than that.  When you place your hand on a hot stove, for example, a report gets sent to a nerve-centre in your spine that immediately fires back a non-countermandable order to withdraw it.  At the same time, it sends a message to your brain to let it know what happened.  You might think you yanked your hand away because your brain noticed that it was getting hot, but the brain actually receives this report after the reflex action has occurred and plays no role in the decision-making.
      It’s the same story when a violinist runs off a string of thirty-second notes, or when you flash the leather to make a save.  Your brain doesn’t have time to deliberate about such matters, and (fortunately) it doesn’t have to.

  • Jmessih

    Hard to say b/c we have not played yet but, which team is deeper this year or last years edition?

    • Mind Bomb

      Jmessih  Deeper into the Playoffs, or deeper on the Bench ?

      • Jmessih

        Like if you put the 2 rosters head to head which one would you chose which one would you think wins etc…..
        Like our top 12 forwards and our top 6 defencemen, which group is stronger?

        • playoff nut

          Jmessih Gilmore ,clark,armstrong with Horton and salming with Cujo net minding,come on Baaaaaston

        • Mind Bomb

          Jmessih  This years Team will be much stronger. We will have 2 Top notch scoring lines, and a true checking line. Our Goaltending is improved as well. Defense is a Mystery atm.

        • Jmessih

          Ya the defense is a mystery for sure…what I think we all assume is we will see
          Gunner – Dion
          Gardiner – Franson
          Fraser – Ranger
          (Brennen, Holzer)
          Just how and for what are we going to get rid of Liles

        • B_Leaf

          Jmessih 
          I feel very happy with that top six…very strong IMO.

        • Jmessih

          Best group we have had in a while…not that moble tho

  • MLHS_Luke

    Anyone looking for a cheap Phaneuf jersey?

    http://forums.redflagdeals.com/reebok-store-vaughan-mills-35-dion-phaneuf-leaf-jersey-1365057/

  • B_Leaf

    So are we concluding the leafs were out chanced according to these stats? Because scoring chances are more art than science…there are scoring chances and then there are scoring chances. There were a lot of games last year when the leafs gave up time in there own end without a meaningful chance…then they would spend 15 seconds on offense and have a couple good chances. 
    Just from watching, I felt the Leafs out chanced others, but not out shot them. Just me maybe.

    • MLHS_Luke

      B_Leaf I think the problem is if we don’t have hard (ie. undeniable) stats to use, bias comes into play.  Obviously we’re all biased towards the team, and see what we want to see to varying degrees.

    • Xxxxxnew

      Exactly. A wrist shot by Phil Kessel from Phil Kessel from 35 feet is a scoring chance. A shot from the same distance by most other guys, not so much.

      • Jmessih

        Also how do you define scoring chance, I stand by my view that it is subjective and that there is no universal definition for it so it is too difficult to calculated. Also those comparing it to shots are wrong I would say because a breakaway with a missed shot is a massive scoring chance, so you can’t compare scoring chances to shots on goal they jsut don’t match with eachother

        • Xxxxxnew

          Guys like Kessel, Ovechkin, Crosby can shoot from just about anywhere and it’s a scoring chance. Can’t say that about many others. But I’m sure there’s no differentiation in the stats.

        • Jmessih

          for sure, but number cannot differential that….

      • Black_Hawk

        Straight up

  • Xxxxxnew

    This is what amuses me about these stats. One team won the Cup and the other wasn’t in playoffs. Guess which was witch.
    “Chicago was surprisingly one of the worst teams in giving up scoring chances, but somehow managed to keep the puck out of the net;
    New Jersey was the league’s best at suppressing scoring chances (worth noting that Mark Fraser compared the Leafs defensive system to the Devils;”

  • wendelsfist

    More proof that matches Cronin’s comment on how the leafs amplified quality scoring chances for at the team level by showing shooting percentage is repeatable at the team level.  
    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4567740/team-shooting-percentage-actually-it-is-somewhat-repeatable

  • wendelsfist

    Reimer ranked 21st out of top 30 goalie in NHL.  Reimer is severely under rated but that is a good thing as we can resign him on the cheap
    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl–rankings–the-top-30-starting-goalies-in-the-nhl-154114642.html

  • DWCMLHS

    I guess we’ll find out whether or not the Leafs giving up a lower percentage of scoring chances on shots-against than their opponents is a repeatable skill this season. It’s possible. But it really doesn’t matter if the team gets out-shot so badly that they end up being out-chanced anyways. Carlyle’s system wasn’t the reason that Leafs made the playoffs, Reimer being healthy and playing extremely well was. The PK improving was very important too, but Reimer was a big part of that.

    • wendelsfist

      DWCMLHS The key is how coachable the players are and follow the coaching.  The worse case, is if the players care more about individual stats instead of maximizing the team quality scoring chances.

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    https://twitter.com/NHLJetshttps://twitter.com/NHLJets/status/361939705731891200
    The https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NHLJets&src=hash are happy to announce they have agreed to terms with defenceman Zach Bogosian. More details to follow shortly!

    • rustynail

      ingy56 so Fraser may well end up being the only player to actually have an arbitration hearing this season. :)

      • Xxxxxnew

        Still time.

        • rustynail

          Xxxxxnew not if they do not talk

      • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

        rustynail ingy56 Looks that way but the real game of chicken is yet to be played.

      • wiski

        rustynail ingy56 I thought there was three guys left for arbi

        • rustynail

          wiski rustynail ingy56 Zuccarelo and Fraser left

    • wiski

      ingy56 It would be nice to have one of those from the leafs organization

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    https://twitter.com/FAN590https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/361941372724453377
    The Winnipeg https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Jets&src=hash have agreed to terms with defenceman Zach Bogosian on a new seven-year contract worth $36 million.

    • rustynail

      ingy56 whats the odds he finishes that contract in the Peg?

      • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

        rustynail ingy56 Depends on his play, if he sucks, they are stuck with him so it is possible.

  • wiski

    https://twitter.com/JoeYerdonPHThttps://twitter.com/JoeYerdonPHT/status/361941216532758529
    Seven years, $36 million for Bogosian from https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NHLJets&src=hash

    • leafmealone

      wiski Seems like a pretty good deal to me.

    • Black_Hawk

      Wpg getting their guys signed nice to see

  • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

    Might have put Franson’s asking price up a tad.

    • rustynail

      ingy56 not sure how comparable they are

      • Burtonboy

        rustynail ingy56 Thats big bucks for Bogosian . Tops out at 30 points

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy rustynail ingy56 overpayment IMO based on his performance so far, who else do the Jets have on D?

        • Burtonboy

          rustynail Burtonboy ingy56 When your stuck your stuck I guess . He’s a career  minus player too

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy rustynail ingy56 look at the team he has played on though

        • Burtonboy

          rustynail Burtonboy ingy56 He’s not worth that money though Rusty

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy rustynail ingy56 I said it was overpayment. I also doubt he stays with the Jets for the term of that contract

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy rustynail ingy56 who else do they have on D who is close to as good?

        • Burtonboy

          rustynail Burtonboy ingy56 Buff and Enstrom is all they have with Trouba coming . Clitsome is not too bad

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy rustynail ingy56 Buff is kinda scary on D

        • Burtonboy

          -Keon- Good point

        • rustynail

          Burtonboy -Keon- and for those that care he was a 3rd over all pick :)

      • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

        rustynail ingy56 Same kind of numbers, Bogosian’s been in the league a bit longer.

        • Xxxxxnew

          Fraser’s played less than half the NHL games that Bogosian, 143 (less than two complete seasons) yet Bogosian is three years younger. Bogosian picks up a point every three games, Fraser every nine games. Most games Fraser ever played in the NHL in a season was 61 four years ago. Played 21, 6 and then 43 with the Leafs since.

        • rustynail

          Xxxxxnew think we were comparing him with Franson

        • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

          Xxxxxnew I was comparing Bogosian to Franson

        • Xxxxxnew

          Sorry guys. So hard to follow the thread sometimes the way it bounces up and down and around.

        • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

          Xxxxxnew NP

        • rustynail

          Xxxxxnew wait til Franson gets offer sheeted :))))

        • Xxxxxnew

          What’s the return on Franson if he gets offer sheeted? I’ve lost track of the formula since the new CBA.

        • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

          Xxxxxnew If he signs in between 3.5 and 5 million it’s a first and a third.

        • Xxxxxnew

          Hmmmmmm …

        • rustynail

          ingy56 Xxxxxnew when do they play or do they even make the NHL?

        • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

          rustynail ingy56 Xxxxxnew Exactly

        • Xxxxxnew

          Oh, for sure. The only way it comes close to working is if you get a top three pick in a year like this one. Even the it stalls the process. I was reading that only 17% of third rounders end up with more tha 200 NHL games anyway.

    • wiski

      ingy56 He signed a show me deal last time, gonna be interesting.

  • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ DeclanK

    Fraser can go. He’s a replacement level player. Also, in arbitration for this sort of stuff, +/-, hits and blocked shots are not taken into acct. Justin Bourne had info on backhand self about that. Nice story for him, but he’s a 7th d on most teams.

    • rustynail

      DeclanK except now we can’t walk away

      • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ DeclanK

        I know. Sucks. I’d prefer that spot for Blacker. Leafs are asking for a 2 way, so at least he’s buriable.

        • rustynail

          DeclanK 2 way doesn’t matter just salary

      • Black_Hawk

        Really? Why?

    • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ DeclanK

      Must be getting some coaching from his dad, who is a judge.

    • http://i.imgur.com/MyKj5C3.gif ingy56

      DeclanK He’s a Leaf or an expensive Marlie though, unless they can trade him.

      • rustynail

        ingy56 DeclanK if he gets 925 we won;t care?:)

      • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ DeclanK

        Those “we don’t care” signings are adding up.

        • rustynail

          DeclanK its only cash and MLSE has lots of it

        • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ DeclanK

          If he’s a Marlie, who cares. If he’s a Leaf, I’m not in that camp.

        • rustynail

          DeclanK if he’s a Leaf it means he beat somebody else for the job.

    • Xxxxxnew

      My favourite thing I liked about Fraser is it was no risk putting him out against the other team’s 3rd or 4th line grinders.
      I think an arbitration jackpot will be difficult for him because of his small number of NHL games played and the fact it was a 48 game season.

    • jcg_4

      DeclanK I don’t agree; Fraser is the type of player you don’t miss til he’s gone. He keeps the other teams forwards constantly looking over their shoulders. We’ve been looking for that guy since Burke got here and now that we’ve found him people are saying he’s unnecessary.

      • Xxxxxnew

        I don’t disagree, it’s more about Fraser asking for $2 million in a cap reduced season, coupled with the fact he’s never played a full NHL season. He’s trying to play salary catch-up after just 143 NHL games played since being drafted in 2005.

    • Black_Hawk

      Yeah agreed

  • palmspringsleafer

    There needs to be a breakdown of the shots further. We all remember Jason Blake crossing the blue line firing a weak shot into the goalie’s belly. Whistle, line change end of any threat no scoring chance but a shot on goal. I think he led the leafs in shots but struggled to score!!
    Shots aren’t always the best indicator of a game. They can certainly be but they can be deceiving as well.

  • rustynail

    https://twitter.com/capgeekhttps://twitter.com/capgeek/status/361951757888266241
    Cap hit comparables for https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NHLJets&src=hash Zach Bogosian: http://t.co/Sn0MXcjKO9

  • Black_Hawk

    Fine with 3.5

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/capgeek
    That’s the https://twitter.com/search?q=%23NHLJets&src=hash with the league’s 10th highest cap payroll: http://t.co/udOJZqEL1e

    Who would have thunk it

    • Black_Hawk

      They had to overpay to get their rfa’s signed I think

    • Xxxxxnew

      Philly’s $2 million over.

      • Burtonboy

        Xxxxxnew Boston ,Pitt and San Jose are over as well

  • Xxxxxnew

    What’s your ceiling on his salary? I’m struggling with it myself.

    • wiski

      Yaknowwhat Xxxxxnew If you give him 1.2 for 2 years he would take it.

    • wiski

      Yaknowwhat wiski Xxxxxnew Like BB has been saying they may need the arbitration hearing so they can open another buyout window for Liles?

    • Xxxxxnew

      I think I’d agree if his contract came up next year with a higher cap. It’s the short season that I don’t trust, not just with Fraser but with a lot most players who had a jump in their play last year. I’m thinking the arbitrator will probably go $1.3 or thereabouts.

    • whalz

      too much……….worth 1-1.3 max

  • Black_Hawk

    Bogosian is better then fransom so it should work in our favour yeah

  • Mitch92

    -Keon- Maybe, but I would like to see him doing his “proving” with the Leafs than elsewhere!  I think bigger dollars and longer term is the way to go here.  Franson should be in the top two highest paid defensemen on the team.  So many here expect Gardiner or Rielly to develop into a top pairing d-man but there are no guarantees.  Right now our top four should include Phaneuf, Franson, Liles and Gardiner.  As much respect as I have for Gunnar, he will never be considered for the Norris trophy.  I truly believe Franson could be in the discussion over the next five years.

  • Black_Hawk

    Lol yeah really seems like it

    • Xxxxxnew

      It hurts when I’m reminded about when teams could set their own cap. Detroit was spending $77 million over 10 years ago.

      • Black_Hawk

        Yea now we as fans need to worry about the cap situation of our teams on top of all the on ice stuff. If there were no cap no one would be bitching about the Clarkson deal.

      • Xxxxxnew

        That will disappear after a few games.

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger
    Bogosian: 13-14: $4,000,000 14-15: $4,000,000 15-16: $5,250,000 16-17: $5,250,000 17-18: $5,500,000 18-19: $6,000,000 19-20: $6,000,000

    • whalz

      FRANSON is licking his chops,,,,,,,,,,

      • Black_Hawk

        We’ll see

  • Lescott

    Does the scoring chance count missed shots? Blocked shots? Missed one-T’s? Or is this just shot tracking? Does it take into account who is shooting?
    Stats…

    • Xxxxxnew

      True. A Kulie shot does not equal a Kessel shot except as as a stat.

  • Mind Bomb

    -Keon-  But then Dion goes, what did Bogo just get ? Hmmmm lol, then its not so good

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger
    Bogosian has no move for first 3 UFA years. Modified no trade for final 2 UFA years

  • Black_Hawk

    I think gunner is way more valuable than fraserand imo is just as valuable. As franson but I think franson gets more

    • Black_Hawk

      I got ur point just giving my jus giving my 2 cents

  • Mind Bomb

    Yaknowwhat  Still think Dion will only get 5.5  bro ?

    • rustynail

      Yaknowwhat Mind Bomb so you think he is equivalent to Bogosian

    • Mind Bomb

      Yaknowwhat Mind Bomb  Hmm, man I toss and turn on this one. Their is shit to replace him with ATM. I dont think we can afford to lose him, but 8 years at 7m, 56 mil, that does kinda make me think about offers.

  • n1ck13

    I’ve checked in on this site many times, but never posted.  Been thinking about Franson quite a bit, and think he is a perfect sell high candidate.  He had almost 2 full years in Nashville where he was not anything special, and one full year (albeit spread over 2 years) in TO.  He had a great season and playoff, but last offseason no one knew, or cared for that matter, whether he was coming back from Europe.  I think you sell high and recoup part/most of what was gave up for Bolland.

    • Black_Hawk

      Welcome to the site. And yeah we cud sell high on franson but would only if the offer is really goo d

      • n1ck13

        Black_Hawk How bout a 2 in 2014 and a 2, 3, or 4 in 2015???

        • Mind Bomb

          n1ck13 Black_Hawk Welcome to the Sight, Franson is a 6.5 Right shot Dman who just finnished top 10 in scoring, I would bet any return for Franson would start with a 1st and high end prospect bro :)
          IMHO

        • Black_Hawk

          Picks are nice but I would want something that cud help us now

        • Black_Hawk

          Yeah probably

  • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ Doit4Dougie

    What kind of penalties can the league enforce on teams who start the season over the cap?

    • Black_Hawk

      I don’t think the team can play the season

    • Xxxxxnew

      Fines up to $5 million that count against the cap, loss of draft picks, suspension of team officials including GM, forfeiture of games.

      • http://mapleleafshotstove.com/ Doit4Dougie

        Thanks.

  • rustynail

    https://twitter.com/MapleLeafsHShttps://twitter.com/MapleLeafsHS/status/361961329826869250
    My chat with Leafs VP of Hockey Operations Dave Poulin: http://t.co/ATqjppGPZS https://twitter.com/search?q=%23leafs&src=hash https://twitter.com/search?q=%23tmltalk&src=hash

    • Black_Hawk

      Cool Thxs