Thursday Morning Mashup: Un-fancy Stat

Thursday Morning Mashup: Un-fancy Stat

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Photo: Getty Images

Yesterday morning, I encountered a tweet that looked like this:

So, because it’s the off-season, but also because I’m a little lazy, I skipped the article and asked myself the question, who on Earth is Brenden Dillon? And (after several Google searches), why is a 22 year old defenseman, with 49 games worth of NHL experience, considered a suitable candidate for the Dallas Star’s captaincy?  This might seem absurd to us but what I realized is that it actually gives us a glimpse of how other NHL fans might view Leafs fans whenever we’re off our rockers over a player.

There are many perils that come with marrying yourself to a player. Take Jake Gardiner as an example. After a phenomenal, break-out season where he placed 9th in rookie scoring (7G 23A 75GP), the 2012-2013 campaign turned out to be a trying time for Gardiner and his proponents.  Many Leafs fans are put off by how the coaching staff  handled Gardiner. No matter your opinion of how he was managed, Leafs fans should, and will, be very interested in how Gardiner performs in the upcoming season. If his playoff performance was any indication, Gardiner should be a good candidate for a strong bounce-back performance.

Having said that, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the top-10 rookie scorers, between 2006 and 2010, have fared in cases where the player either experienced, or did not experience, a drop in production in their second year.  I decided to exclude rookies from the past 3 seasons because they had yet to play in enough seasons to be included in the data set.

I began by defining four broad categories of players based on their impact in the NHL; All Star, Impact, Role, and Bust. The former and latter are self-explanatory. Meanwhile, Role players are generally bottom-6, bottom-pairing, players who do not chew up significant minutes or contribute much to the team’s point production. Impact players are typically top-6/top-4 pairing players who play significant roles and drive team production.

Between 2006 and 2010, I observed and tracked the point-per-game (PPG) performance of the top-10 rookie scorers during their sophomore year, and the next three years.  In total, 50 players make up the sample.

Here is a breakdown of the NHL impact of top-10 rookie scorers:

For what it’s worth, defensemen make up 6 (3 All Stars, 2 Impact, 1 Role) of the 50 rookies in the sample. No matter how you interpret this, Gardiner is in good company and his rookie peers likely include future All Stars.

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Morning Links

Top 25 under 25 – Garret Sparks
Sparks slides in at 18 over at PPP.

The Star previews the new Atlantic Division
Will probably never not strike me as odd that the Leafs are in the “Atlantic.”

Taking the late summer temperature of Leaf supporters
Michael asks the following questions – feel free to post your answers both here and over at VLM:

  1. Are the Leafs a sure-fire playoff team?
  2. Who’s the number-one goalie?
  3. What surprise does Nonis have in store for us before October 1?
  4. Whose team is this—Leiweke’s, Carlyle’s, Nonis’, Phaneuf’s, someone else’s?
171 comments
Leafs rule
Leafs rule

not a fan anymore lol He s not a leaf,he s out to pasture and outa this mind lol

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

I just listened to the Alfie presser.

Made my ears bleed hearing old Krusty but I persevered.

He actualy said that him and the Sens conspired to cheat the cap by having him retire the last year of his contract, but he wanted to play and Melnyk and company promised they would negotiate in good faith, meaning they would make up for the shortfall 1.5M contract in his last year by paying him very high this new contract, thereby giving him a contract upwards of 7M.When they didn't come close he took Detroits offer.

Not only are Ottawa cheap but they are cheaters too. I assume someone from the league will be in touch and they should lose a draft pick, will look good on the bums.

mORRganRielly
mORRganRielly

1. The Leafs are definitely in the mix to be a playoff team.  The question is whether they can fix the shots-against issue.  I believe a full-season of Gardiner, improvements from Kadri and van Reimsdyk, and the steady puck-handling of Bernier will help that.  

2) Reimer.  But I'm curious to see how Bernier fits in with the Leafs.  

3) He will re-sign Kadri and Franson and most of us will express relief.

4) Carlyle's unfortunately.

peterbleafs
peterbleafs

They were smart to plead guilty, and just let this disappear over time.  But I wonder what their family reunions are like?

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@peterbleafs Think of all the ribbing this kid will get from opponents it is going to be fun.

The old man sounds like a fucking lunatic, he needs a headbutt and kick in the gonads.

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Gilbey93 

Kadri>Zibanejad=Galchenyuk

Karlson>Subban>Gardiner

JVR>Pacioetty>Turis

Rielly>Cowan>Tinordi

Price=Reimer>Bernier=Lehner

Kessel>Ryan=Gallagher

Franson> Conacher=Eller=Gryba

Call me a homer, but in a playoff series I have identified the guys I think are better.

But I must admit the teams all have some good players.





Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@Gilbey93 Montreal has two star potential in Subban and Galchenyuk

Ottawa has 1star in Karlsson

Toronto has 3 stars in Kessel, Rielly and Bernier.

Toronto wins.

The_Irv
The_Irv

This is an awesome question... It's hard to answer without having a complete bias towards the Leafs...

IMO I would rank them as

1.Ott

2. Tor

3. Mtl

I think people in the business would probably be Ott, and then a 50/50 split decision between Toronto and Montreal. Very subjective though. There are some bright spots on all three teams as much as it hurts me to say haha

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 Depends on Rielly. If he can make the jump with the same level of success as he had in jr., I'd say Leafs. I think Colborne could be part of the core, too. It'd be his first healthy season in 2 years coming into camp. He'll come on as the season progresses and hopefully he can play his way off the 4th line, where he looks to start. Hopefully he can get some PP#2 time to show what he can do offensively. His size-with-skill is going to be helpful, I think.

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@Greg Fenton @Komas Taberle Yes it is, he actualy said the Sens signed him to that contract knowing he would retire, they have enough evidence. Look what the Leafs did to Burke when he traded with TB to circumvent cap so that TB got revenue from league.

Leafs rule
Leafs rule

@-Keon- re So for the Leafs, Kessel in the now category. Kadri,,   what about Lupal ,JVR 

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 PMDs have as much or more value than any other position in the game right now. I'd give TO the nod ahead of MTL, but behind OTT. Karlsson is unbelievably good as a PMD/4th forward/rover.

KulieFTW
KulieFTW

@Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Plus Minus is the worst stat to use to compare two offensive players.

It's more of an indicator than a stat to directly judge a player.

Plus Minus compared to team plus minus, multiplied by some factor 

related to toi, and relative corsi, that'll give you a decent marker for judgement, but until some egghead figures out the math behind it, lets

leave Plus Minus completely out of the discussion on a player's worth.

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Last year JVR scored 18 goals and 32 points to Bobby Ryans 11 goals and 30 points.

Kessel had 52 points.

Bobby Ryan played with Getzlaf and Perry two elite forwards some of the time.

Maybe you should actually watch Bobby Ryan play before you crown him with all this glory. You lose credibility.

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 yeah i think that is fine if thats all he is. Glad we have him signed long term too b/c if we had to sign him now it would probably cost a lot more b/c that just seems to be how the market is now.

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 guess it depends on what type of player you need. Since we have Lupul, jvr, and Clarkson going to the net we need a kessel type more than a ryan type imo. Also JVR could turn into the next bobby ryan as the similarities are eerie. Both Second overall and play the same style.

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Who would you rather have in a run for the cup? Kadri or the other two?

Totally take JVR over MaxiPat

Agreed on Price...I would rather Reimer myself

As you might know I dont value Kessel to the same degree as others around here, but he still has a tremendous value. Ryan was traded because he lacks intangibles...he is a poor mans power forward. I would take Kessel everytime in that one.

DWCMLHS
DWCMLHS

I'm just saying that anyone who had Galchenyuk rated higher than Rielly before the draft should probably still rate him higher, in terms of potential, because Rielly hasn't really done anything worthy of leap-frogging Galchenyuk since the draft. Galchenyuk is more proven, too. He's at least shown he's an NHLer. Obviously, I do expect Rielly to be a good NHLer, too, he just hasn't shown he can be for sure, yet.

The_Irv
The_Irv

I don't think either player could necessarily be labelled as "better" than the other yet... It is a little premature.

I would argue that it's slightly easier to throw a young forward prospect into the mix before a defenseman. Especially when the defenseman we are talking about had just come off a season ending injury that required surgery and resulted in only 18 games in Junior.

Just based on the media attention alone I think it would have been suicide for the Leafs to let Rielly play in the NHL last year. The media would have ruined him.

Anyways all my thoughts aside, Galy may end up being the better player, but I'm just stating it seems a little premature to think he already IS the better player.

DWCMLHS
DWCMLHS

Everyone learns more about the guy their favorite team drafted after the draft. Rielly hasn't actually done anything since the draft to move him above Galchenyuk, IMO. Galchenyuk actually has shown more than Rielly has, making his NHL team. What - other than bias - could have possibly caused you to put Rielly ahead of Galchenyuk now? Or did you always have him ahead of AG?

The_Irv
The_Irv

Is Galy better than Rielly or was he rated as a higher draft pick.

I'm not arguing he may be the better player down the road, but it's kind of tough to assume that "he's better then Rielly" already just because people wanted him before he was drafted... Everyone on here basically drooled over every centre prospect in that draft because we know how badly we need one.

Yet to be determined who is better!

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 @Jimmy Keating you have to look at Subban's season with a bit of context. He wasn't Norris worthy, IMHO. 

Markov made his season and he played some pretty soft minutes. Regardless, he's a great defenseman. 

Put PK with Holzer and Kostka, up against the best players in the world and lets see how he fairs.

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 @dlb eh @Jimmy Keating He is just a prospect, but should he make the jump, which I think he can, I believe he'll be a really good young piece of the Leafs ever-evolving core. He's not on the list at the moment, just saying that he could make that list this season.