Home Morning Mashup Thursday Morning Mashup: Un-fancy Stat

Thursday Morning Mashup: Un-fancy Stat

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Yesterday morning, I encountered a tweet that looked like this:

So, because it’s the off-season, but also because I’m a little lazy, I skipped the article and asked myself the question, who on Earth is Brenden Dillon? And (after several Google searches), why is a 22 year old defenseman, with 49 games worth of NHL experience, considered a suitable candidate for the Dallas Star’s captaincy?  This might seem absurd to us but what I realized is that it actually gives us a glimpse of how other NHL fans might view Leafs fans whenever we’re off our rockers over a player.

There are many perils that come with marrying yourself to a player. Take Jake Gardiner as an example. After a phenomenal, break-out season where he placed 9th in rookie scoring (7G 23A 75GP), the 2012-2013 campaign turned out to be a trying time for Gardiner and his proponents.  Many Leafs fans are put off by how the coaching staff  handled Gardiner. No matter your opinion of how he was managed, Leafs fans should, and will, be very interested in how Gardiner performs in the upcoming season. If his playoff performance was any indication, Gardiner should be a good candidate for a strong bounce-back performance.

Having said that, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the top-10 rookie scorers, between 2006 and 2010, have fared in cases where the player either experienced, or did not experience, a drop in production in their second year.  I decided to exclude rookies from the past 3 seasons because they had yet to play in enough seasons to be included in the data set.

I began by defining four broad categories of players based on their impact in the NHL; All Star, Impact, Role, and Bust. The former and latter are self-explanatory. Meanwhile, Role players are generally bottom-6, bottom-pairing, players who do not chew up significant minutes or contribute much to the team’s point production. Impact players are typically top-6/top-4 pairing players who play significant roles and drive team production.

Between 2006 and 2010, I observed and tracked the point-per-game (PPG) performance of the top-10 rookie scorers during their sophomore year, and the next three years.  In total, 50 players make up the sample.

Here is a breakdown of the NHL impact of top-10 rookie scorers:

For what it’s worth, defensemen make up 6 (3 All Stars, 2 Impact, 1 Role) of the 50 rookies in the sample. No matter how you interpret this, Gardiner is in good company and his rookie peers likely include future All Stars.

- – -

Morning Links

Top 25 under 25 – Garret Sparks
Sparks slides in at 18 over at PPP.

The Star previews the new Atlantic Division
Will probably never not strike me as odd that the Leafs are in the “Atlantic.”

Taking the late summer temperature of Leaf supporters
Michael asks the following questions – feel free to post your answers both here and over at VLM:

  1. Are the Leafs a sure-fire playoff team?
  2. Who’s the number-one goalie?
  3. What surprise does Nonis have in store for us before October 1?
  4. Whose team is this—Leiweke’s, Carlyle’s, Nonis’, Phaneuf’s, someone else’s?
A graduate student at Columbia University, Aaron is defined by a love of nature, an intense interest in finance, and a passion for the Blue & White. Toronto born and raised, earliest Leaf memories include emulating Joe Bowen calls and carpet mini-stick during HNIC. Former D1 NCAA Tennis player. Aaron can be found on Twitter at https://twitter.com/mapleleafmuse.

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304 comments
Leafs rule
Leafs rule

not a fan anymore lol He s not a leaf,he s out to pasture and outa this mind lol

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

I just listened to the Alfie presser.

Made my ears bleed hearing old Krusty but I persevered.

He actualy said that him and the Sens conspired to cheat the cap by having him retire the last year of his contract, but he wanted to play and Melnyk and company promised they would negotiate in good faith, meaning they would make up for the shortfall 1.5M contract in his last year by paying him very high this new contract, thereby giving him a contract upwards of 7M.When they didn't come close he took Detroits offer.

Not only are Ottawa cheap but they are cheaters too. I assume someone from the league will be in touch and they should lose a draft pick, will look good on the bums.

mORRganRielly
mORRganRielly

1. The Leafs are definitely in the mix to be a playoff team.  The question is whether they can fix the shots-against issue.  I believe a full-season of Gardiner, improvements from Kadri and van Reimsdyk, and the steady puck-handling of Bernier will help that.  

2) Reimer.  But I'm curious to see how Bernier fits in with the Leafs.  

3) He will re-sign Kadri and Franson and most of us will express relief.

4) Carlyle's unfortunately.

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

As far as Cores go which core of players 87 birthday or younger would you rather have

MTL- Subban, Tinordi, Pacioretty, Eller, Galchenyuk, Gallager, Price

TOR- Kadri, Kessel, Gardinar, Rielly, JVR, Bernier, Reimer, Franson

OTT- Zibanejad, Turris,, Conacher, Cowen, Karlsson, Gryba, Lehner, Ryan

peterbleafs
peterbleafs

They were smart to plead guilty, and just let this disappear over time.  But I wonder what their family reunions are like?

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@peterbleafs Think of all the ribbing this kid will get from opponents it is going to be fun.

The old man sounds like a fucking lunatic, he needs a headbutt and kick in the gonads.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Komas Taberle They have to be able to prove it before the Senators get punished, and a players word isn't proof. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@mORRganRielly I think the biggest question when it comes to the playoffs is whether or not hte Leafs can get the 3rd spot in their division. I think if they have to compete with the best of the rest for spot 7 or 8, it iwll be much tougher for them to get in. 

dlb meh
dlb meh

@mORRganRielly 

Carlyle's unfortunately because you're not a fan or RC?  not a fan of the coach dictating to the GM?  disappointed that Nonis hasn't asserted himself more?  wassup?

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Gilbey93 

Kadri>Zibanejad=Galchenyuk

Karlson>Subban>Gardiner

JVR>Pacioetty>Turis

Rielly>Cowan>Tinordi

Price=Reimer>Bernier=Lehner

Kessel>Ryan=Gallagher

Franson> Conacher=Eller=Gryba

Call me a homer, but in a playoff series I have identified the guys I think are better.

But I must admit the teams all have some good players.





Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@Gilbey93 Montreal has two star potential in Subban and Galchenyuk

Ottawa has 1star in Karlsson

Toronto has 3 stars in Kessel, Rielly and Bernier.

Toronto wins.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Gilbey93 The Leafs have the best goaltending now and moving forward. Ottawa has the best D-man and maybe the best defenisve play overall (104 goals against last year was 22 less thent he Habs and 29 less thent he Leafs). Habs would be 2nd with Subban, the Leafs Rielly but its probably mor elikely he becomes more like Subban then Karlsson. I don't think any of the 3 has a sure fire, franchise forward on board. Ryan are Kessel are both pretty prolific goal scorers but I wouldn't build around either, the Habs don't have that though Galchenyuk is probably hte highest potential forward mentioned. Zibanejad is probably #2 ont hat list. 

Each core really its own strengths and weakness. I would say Leafs and Senators are roughly equal while Montreal is step beind, though might catch up depending largely on Galchenyuk. 

The_Irv
The_Irv

This is an awesome question... It's hard to answer without having a complete bias towards the Leafs...

IMO I would rank them as

1.Ott

2. Tor

3. Mtl

I think people in the business would probably be Ott, and then a 50/50 split decision between Toronto and Montreal. Very subjective though. There are some bright spots on all three teams as much as it hurts me to say haha

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

As far as centers go MTL, OTT, TOR

wingers - TOR, MTL, OTT

DMEN- OTT, MTL, TOR

Goalies- TOR, MTL, OTT

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 Depends on Rielly. If he can make the jump with the same level of success as he had in jr., I'd say Leafs. I think Colborne could be part of the core, too. It'd be his first healthy season in 2 years coming into camp. He'll come on as the season progresses and hopefully he can play his way off the 4th line, where he looks to start. Hopefully he can get some PP#2 time to show what he can do offensively. His size-with-skill is going to be helpful, I think.

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Gilbey93 

good question.  i can only answer that with my Blue and Whites on, though.  ask a Chicago or Minny fan and hope they watch a lot of hockey to know any better.

i wouldn't trade our group for any of the others, even though there are some nice players in those groups...

Komas Taberle
Komas Taberle

@Greg Fenton @Komas Taberle Yes it is, he actualy said the Sens signed him to that contract knowing he would retire, they have enough evidence. Look what the Leafs did to Burke when he traded with TB to circumvent cap so that TB got revenue from league.

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Komas Taberle @dlb eh 

the headline was amusing and i didn't read the article.  just seeing the dog in there trying to be passed off as an African Lion made me tear up

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Kadri is the best of those 3 now, but I certainly wouldn't say he has the highest ceiling. Many/most Leaf fans didn't want the Leafs to land Galchenyuk because he was going to be as good as Kadri. 

Pacioetty has proven more then van Riemsdyk at this point. Unless one or the other takes a big step forward they are roughly equal. 

I wouldn't put Price at the top of the goalie list. Probably hte most proven, but I wouldn't say the best. 

Kessel is not out right better then Ryan. Ryan has a higher GPG then Kessel, and they have the same number of 30+ goal seasons. Kessel is faste rnad more of a playmaker, Ryan is bigger, tougher and has a much better power game. Ryan is a career + player, Kessel a career - player. All things being equal, given their different strengths and weakness, Ryan would probably hte better fit for the Leafs, how they player and the kind of players they like/want. Gallagher is nowhere near either Kessel or Ryan. 

dlb meh
dlb meh

@The_Irv 

let's ask John Davidson.  he's my pick for most unbiased who also has the necessary cred.

Leafs rule
Leafs rule

@-Keon- re So for the Leafs, Kessel in the now category. Kadri,,   what about Lupal ,JVR 

dlb meh
dlb meh

@-Keon-

i looked at it in smaller groups, of players we can "mostly" label now

Ryan, Turris, Karlsson - Kessel,JVR- Pacioretty,Subban

then the guys who we can "mostly" predict

Kadri,Franson,Gardiner,Bernier,Reimer (Gryba, Zibanejad, Conacher vs Eller, Gallager)

and the guys we can dream of

Tinordi doesn't excite me as much as Reilly, and even though Galchenyuk looks very solid i still get more excited about Reily.  those twi be fun to watch, and it could be my Leafs bias there.

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@-Keon- Well Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Price, Subban, and Pac(if you consider him a star)

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 PMDs have as much or more value than any other position in the game right now. I'd give TO the nod ahead of MTL, but behind OTT. Karlsson is unbelievably good as a PMD/4th forward/rover.

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@Jimmy Keating @Gilbey93 I didn't want to add fringe players. Left Colborne off because he could easily play in the minors if Dmag or Ashton come in strong

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Komas Taberle @Greg Fenton And the Senators say they never had that agreement with him. Who is telling the truth?

Its not like whent he Leafs got hit for tampering and they had Wilson on tape, before he could talk about the Sedins talking about the Sedins (I believe thats what cost the tampa bay pick). 

They would need something in writing or a recording or something to implicate the Senators did that. Not just someones word (unless the Senators admit they did.....) 

KulieFTW
KulieFTW

@Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Plus Minus is the worst stat to use to compare two offensive players.

It's more of an indicator than a stat to directly judge a player.

Plus Minus compared to team plus minus, multiplied by some factor 

related to toi, and relative corsi, that'll give you a decent marker for judgement, but until some egghead figures out the math behind it, lets

leave Plus Minus completely out of the discussion on a player's worth.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @Gilbey93And don't kid yourself - NO ONE on here has credibility. Everyone (even me, who uses my real name, but you have no way of KNOWING if I'm telling the truth) here posts anonymously, no one has credentials or a working or experience back ground to really give any weight to our opinions. None of us are held accountable for what we say. Ever find it funny that almost no one who posts about a team online was ever wrong about the team int he past? Everyone KNEW that the prospects who were busts were going to be busts? Funny how that works. Someone can dissapear, make a new name or profile and come back with new opinions......

No one has any credibility. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @Gilbey93 Well lets just ignore all past seasons and base everything on 1 season. 

I guess you takes Mike Riberio over John Tavares and Jon Toews. Duchene and Kopitar right? 

Did you ever have credibility? You said in a playoff run you'd play Rielly, who has neer played a single game over Cowen....

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Last year JVR scored 18 goals and 32 points to Bobby Ryans 11 goals and 30 points.

Kessel had 52 points.

Bobby Ryan played with Getzlaf and Perry two elite forwards some of the time.

Maybe you should actually watch Bobby Ryan play before you crown him with all this glory. You lose credibility.

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 yeah i think that is fine if thats all he is. Glad we have him signed long term too b/c if we had to sign him now it would probably cost a lot more b/c that just seems to be how the market is now.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Black_Hawk @Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 And there is NOTHING wrong with van Riemsdyk settling in as a 20-25 goal, 50ish point power forward who can play on the topline, but would probably be a 2nd line by merit. 

Still a good player, still a valuable player, still a player who can help a team win. A player worth signing and having on the team. Hell,there hav ebeen times in the past when the Leafs GM would KILL for that kind of player. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Black_Hawk @Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 In Ryan's first full year  he had 31 goals in 65 games. 

Ryan is a top line power forward. van Riemsdyk is the 2nd line version, and thats probably what he'll stay. I know people hope, want, think every player will improve with time, but it doesn't always work that way. At 24 years old he took a big step last year, every year to believe that was his "big step". 

As I said, van Riemsdyk and Pacioetty are basically the same player. Would you hold your breath on Pacioetty becoming as good or impact as Kessel or Ryan? Probably not, you probably expect him to continue on as the player he has shown he is. I hope its different with van Rimesdyk since he is a Leaf, but I certainly wouldn't count on or expect it. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Black_Hawk @Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 No they don't. They could easily add another power forward (I would argue the Ryan style 30+ goal scorer would fit better with Carlyle and the style he wants the team to play). 

van Riemsdyk would have to take his game to another level to get to that Kessel/Ryan level. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Greg Fenton @Gilbey93 Maybe, hopefully. He is 23 years old, not exactly a kid in hockey player terms. He just had a 30 goal, 75 point season. He may improve on that, or its just as likely he will only play to that level, or less, moving forward. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Greg Fenton @Gilbey93 If we are talking 1 playoff run, forgetting potential and all that....

Galenchyuk actually had mroe PPG int he playoffs then Kadri, but Kadri's whole game is probably better at this moment. 

Pacioetty didn't do well int he playoffs this year, but its still a coin flip between him and van Riemsdyk as they are basically the same player. 

Cowen is the only guy in his group with NHL and playoff experience so clearly he has to be the top player in that group if we are ignoring potential. 

Price has never had a great playoff performance so he shouldn't be the pick there. 

With Kessel and Ryan is still comes down to what style you want and Gallagher still isn't close. 

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

@Greg Fenton @Black_Hawk @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 guess it depends on what type of player you need. Since we have Lupul, jvr, and Clarkson going to the net we need a kessel type more than a ryan type imo. Also JVR could turn into the next bobby ryan as the similarities are eerie. Both Second overall and play the same style.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@B_Leaf @Greg Fenton @Gilbey93 The question was which would you rathe rhave period, which to me indicates taking future and potential into account. 

Cowen has played int he NHL, Rielly hasn't, so if its all about who you'd play in the plyaoffs now, Rielly shouldn't be at the head of that group. 

van Riemsdyk over Max based on what? They the two are very similar players with very similar production, and Max has a better history. 

Kessel and Ryan are pretty close as well. Very different styles, but very close in what they bring and how good they are. 

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Black_Hawk @Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 Some of  the time. But who is to say Ryan wouldn't have done the same with Bozak and Lupul or that Kesselw ould have done any better with Getzlaf and Perry?

I don't watch many Ducks game, but I do know Ryan didn't always play with those 2, sometimes they split those 3 up to spread the scoring around.  

B_Leaf
B_Leaf

@Greg Fenton @B_Leaf @Gilbey93 

Who would you rather have in a run for the cup? Kadri or the other two?

Totally take JVR over MaxiPat

Agreed on Price...I would rather Reimer myself

As you might know I dont value Kessel to the same degree as others around here, but he still has a tremendous value. Ryan was traded because he lacks intangibles...he is a poor mans power forward. I would take Kessel everytime in that one.

dlb meh
dlb meh

nope.  you weren't asking me haha

dlb meh
dlb meh

DWCMLHS part 2

Galy looks good in the NHL at his young age, i admit that, so it's tough to predict Reilly could be better, but i'm a defenseman kinda guy...give me Doughty over Stamkos, for instance.

after Reilly was drafted we got to see him play an international tourney in which he and Yakupov stood out huge to me. Yak was more highly touted than Galy, right or wrong, so seeing Reilly play as well as he did made me think "yeah, we quite possibly just stole the best player in that draft"

there's been no reason to change the way i feel so far, so that impression is what it is

dlb meh
dlb meh

DWCMLHS

i assume you're asking me?

i don't typically get serious about the rating of junior players prior to the draft because i don't get to see them all on equal ground really.  i'll throw out names but it's mostly because i saw something i liked about the kid and not in comparison to the kids i don't know much about.

like this year, Hartman and Rychel were my picks.  i didn't know much about Gauthier but now i'm real happy about that pick.

DWCMLHS
DWCMLHS

I'm just saying that anyone who had Galchenyuk rated higher than Rielly before the draft should probably still rate him higher, in terms of potential, because Rielly hasn't really done anything worthy of leap-frogging Galchenyuk since the draft. Galchenyuk is more proven, too. He's at least shown he's an NHLer. Obviously, I do expect Rielly to be a good NHLer, too, he just hasn't shown he can be for sure, yet.

The_Irv
The_Irv

I don't think either player could necessarily be labelled as "better" than the other yet... It is a little premature.

I would argue that it's slightly easier to throw a young forward prospect into the mix before a defenseman. Especially when the defenseman we are talking about had just come off a season ending injury that required surgery and resulted in only 18 games in Junior.

Just based on the media attention alone I think it would have been suicide for the Leafs to let Rielly play in the NHL last year. The media would have ruined him.

Anyways all my thoughts aside, Galy may end up being the better player, but I'm just stating it seems a little premature to think he already IS the better player.

DWCMLHS
DWCMLHS

Everyone learns more about the guy their favorite team drafted after the draft. Rielly hasn't actually done anything since the draft to move him above Galchenyuk, IMO. Galchenyuk actually has shown more than Rielly has, making his NHL team. What - other than bias - could have possibly caused you to put Rielly ahead of Galchenyuk now? Or did you always have him ahead of AG?

The_Irv
The_Irv

Is Galy better than Rielly or was he rated as a higher draft pick.

I'm not arguing he may be the better player down the road, but it's kind of tough to assume that "he's better then Rielly" already just because people wanted him before he was drafted... Everyone on here basically drooled over every centre prospect in that draft because we know how badly we need one.

Yet to be determined who is better!

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Gilbey93

yeah, it became tedious scrolling up and back, so i though i said enough to get the gist of it.

and we all wanted Galchenyuk because we were all focused on centres and who might be available.

not a lot of us heard about Reilly because TSN didn't talk him up much.  there were, however, a couple people here who DID hope for Reily.

once you get to know someone and learn more about them, you get to form your own opinions.  seeing Reilly for myself, i wouldn't trade him for anyone in that draft.

i admit, Reilly's the Leafs prospect, so they rest don't get the same attention from me.  that's why i think it'll be fun to watch

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@dlb eh @-Keon- Everybody on this wanted Galchenyuk on this site till the Habs drafted him so I'd say he's better then Rielly

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@-Keon- You should also take degree into account. Ottawa really only has Karlsson who is an elite defender. The Habs have Subban who is a star defender. The leafs have Gardiner AND Rielly, but they project out to be more Subban then Karlsson. So whats worth more, 1 Elite Defender or two All-Star ones? Would you trade Crosby for Gaborik and Horton? 

That has to factor in as well. THe single best player among all 3 times is probably Karlsson, which is a significant boost to that team. 

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@dlb eh @Gilbey93 ppl talk life he's a god posting a career .915 in the reg and a .905 in the playoffs. And this guy is going to be on the olympic team pfft

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Gilbey93 @dlb eh 

why are you making me talk up Price?  just move on, i'm not changing my response but i don't want to give a Hab any more love either, come on.

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@dlb eh Carey has had 1 good year the rest have been a little above average and last year was below average. Thats 1 good year every 5 year average

dlb meh
dlb meh

Gilbey, goalies slump.  i would love to see Carey slump until they give up on him, but he's been world class before and has tools to be the cream of this crop...

i'm fine having two kids with big upside, though.  better odds one will work out.  Carey's a groin pull away from leaving the conversation.

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@dlb eh Price doesn't do it for me. He's the most overrated player in the league IMO. Carey has the same save percentage as reimer. and post a .905 playoff save percentage where reimer has a .923 though price obviously has played alot more

dlb meh
dlb meh

Gilbey93

actually, i might.

i think i've seen enough to judge Reimer and Price, but not Lehner or Bernier.  i love James...but...Price...he's a lot more likely to be that guy...

(wash mouth out with soap)

you know, you're a big jerk making us talk like this

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@-Keon- The question is would you trade Bernier and Reimer for price or Lehner

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@-Keon- I'm talking goalies with an 87 birthday or less anderson is 30+

Gilbey93
Gilbey93

@-Keon- I dunno Price just doesnt do it for me. He had terrible stats last year too

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 @Jimmy Keating you have to look at Subban's season with a bit of context. He wasn't Norris worthy, IMHO. 

Markov made his season and he played some pretty soft minutes. Regardless, he's a great defenseman. 

Put PK with Holzer and Kostka, up against the best players in the world and lets see how he fairs.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@dlb eh @Jimmy Keating No one is writing him off, but right now he looks liek a fringe NHLer, a 4th line, MAYBE 3rd line guy. Not a core guy. He has to significant improve his standing within the team and his play and production to be a core player. 

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Jimmy Keating

i'm with you on Colbourne. the few games he played in the playoffs last year gave me reason to feel optimistic about him again.

i say again, because when he returned from injury during the Marlies' playoff run a couple years back, he absolutely dominated one of the games i watched.

there are plenty of big skilled forwards who became core players for their teams in their mid-20's. there's just as much reason to give him a chance than there is to write him off. so pick your side of the fence.

Greg Fenton
Greg Fenton

@Jimmy Keating @Gilbey93 @dlb eh I hav enothing against Colborne, a guy wholooks liek a future 3rd or 4th line plug isn't a "core" player. Maybe/hopefully he can and will be more then that, but to call him a future core player this point......

Ian from Etobicoke
Ian from Etobicoke

@Gilbey93 @dlb eh @Jimmy Keating He is just a prospect, but should he make the jump, which I think he can, I believe he'll be a really good young piece of the Leafs ever-evolving core. He's not on the list at the moment, just saying that he could make that list this season.

dlb meh
dlb meh

@Gilbey93 @dlb eh @Jimmy Keating 

i don't disagree with that.  but if i had to pick one over the other right now i'd take Colbourne.

he still has that unknown about him.  i've seen enough of Eller to be happy we play him regularily.