Game Preview: Sharks at Leafs

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A struggling Leafs team running into a 18-3-4 opponent can go one of two ways – the bloody Jaws-like scene we’re picturing, or the Leafs sensing the urgency of a fin in the water, rising to the level of competition, and icing a respectable showing.

The Sharks are obviously on another level personnel wise; they tick all the boxes required in an elite team with amazing center depth in particular (Thornton, Couture, Pavelski, Marleau in a pinch). It’s a mystery as to why the Sharks organization doesn’t have at least one Cup to show for itself given its regular season successes since 2004. While the Red Wings are popularly described as the paragon of consistency as a winning team that feeds the machine with acute draft day bargain hunting, San Jose has been a winning team that’s been better at the draft without the Cup to show for it.

Great drafting ensures this Sharks will have more opportunities to win its first Cup over this next CBA – a 9th overall pick was used on Logan Couture on and a second round pick on Marc-Edouard Vlasic; two 7th rounders were used to unearth Joe Pavelski and Justin Braun (leading Sharks defence core in minutes played, and leading the league in plus/minus); Tommy Wingels was a sixth-round pick up; Tomas Hertl, looking like pretty damn good value at 17th overall in 2012, is currently leading the Calder race (13 goals and 21 points in 26 games).

In fact, since 2003 no team has produced more games played out of its draftees than the Sharks, and they’ve been a good to great team the entire time.

The painful irony for Leafs fans is that the man who traded the first and second round picks used by the Sharks to trade up for Logan Couture in order to wrangle himself Vesa Toskala is one of the brains behind the scouting operation in San Jose, along with director of scouting Tim Burke, in John Ferguson Jr (at least since 2008). Leafs fans can at least thank Fergie for the excellent 2006 draft and the appointment of Dave Morrison as his Director of Scouting in the same year (Morrison’s results look to be pretty good so far).

Opposites Clash

Sharks coach Todd McLellan has been labeling his the 2013-14 iteration of his group as less of a heavy cycle team than in years previous, but a good possession team nonetheless that emphasizes putting a ton of rubber at the net, winning puck races, and rolling four lines with speed to feed a relentless attack.

[quote_box_center]“We’re talking about putting it in areas where we can go get it. We’re talking about playing more of a north-south game, not slowing it down as much, trying to stay ahead of the curve. That’s where the game is going. Coming out of the last lockout you could delay, look for people and hold on to the puck a little longer. Teams have figured out how to defend that now. You have to advance.”
Todd McLellan
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Consider the following quotes:

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“We’re not a team who likes to skate over the blueline and throw shots at the net, we want to hold onto it and make some plays.”
Joffrey Lupul
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[quote_box_center]
“Our coaches track scoring chances, not shots. A guy crosses centre ice and shoots the puck at the net, it’s a shot. After the game, when they put up the scoring chances, if there’s ever a big disparity in that, it’s going to be an issue with the coaches and with the players. But again, if they get 40 shots and five scoring chances, that doesn’t really matter to us.”?
Joffrey Lupul
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[quote_box_center] 
“You’ve got to shoot the puck. You watch highlights around the league and a lot of goals are scored on second or third chances and that’s how we’ve been getting them, too.”
Logan Couture
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[quote_box_center]
“It shows up more in the third- and fourth-line situations, the ability to roll four lines and maintain the pace. If we were going quick in the past, it kind of fell off as we went down a line or two, so there were hills and valleys. In the game right now, all the lines play a quick game.”
– Todd McLellan
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An amazing set of centers as in San Jose changes the entire complexion of a team, obviously, and Carlyle’s system is partially built around covering up for what isn’t the strongest group of pivots in the League. The Sharks are icing three centers better than the Leafs’ best. But embracing speed as the team’s identity and rolling four lines that looks to quicken the pace and sustain a high-energy game seems like the better approach than what we’ve seen from Carlyle’s Leafs lately.

Finding Hope

While the Leafs amassed a 36-21-5 record over 62 games under Randy Carlyle between January 2013 and November 1, 2013, regression remained a buzzword in Leafland due to some of the foreboding stats underlying their performance. There continues to be merit in those concerns; getting outshot, and out shot-attempted, was and continues to be an indicator that this team isn’t controlling games often enough (or seemingly at all, this season) at 5 on 5.

For that reason, the current 13-game stretch, in which the Leafs have gone 5-6-3, they’re not getting the same benefit of the doubt as maybe another team would that easily qualified for the playoffs last season, started the next season 10-4, and had a poor stretch in the month of November.

For the Leafs, the recent struggles haven’t been attributable to any one or two things. They have regressed in just about every area in November – five on five goals for and against, powerplay, and penalty kill. One area where the struggles have been most pronounced is in the goals department. In the previous 62 games under Carlyle, this team scored 190 goals (3.06/game). They scored just 25 goals in 13 November games (1.92/game).

Much has been made recently of the poor production this team has been receiving from its bottom six forward group. In the interest of finding some positives headed into the toughest month of the Leaf schedule with the team playing arguably as poorly as it ever has under Carlyle, let’s look at some of the individual numbers in November among the top six group.

PlayerPoints in NovNov Points Pace over 82PPG in NovPPG in prev. 69
Kessel6380.461.01
Kadri4330.40.83
JvR7440.540.65
Lupul4330.41.03*
Clarkson4250.310.48*

*Lupul played just 29 out of those 62 games, but did post 67 points the 66 games previous; Clarkson played 52/62 due to the suspension.

It certainly would be nice getting some production from the bottom six when the top 6 is struggling. The intention of this exercise is not to suggest Carlyle doesn’t need to rethink is current bottom six, because he needs to in the worst way. While depth up front is a concern at this point, options with a more offensive capacity to their game are available to Carlyle in Holland and Leivo, as young as they may be. He should probably use them. Jerred Smithson was needed to fill a temporary void at center, but it’s clear one shot in 12 games isn’t going to get him on the board any time soon.

However, for all 5 of these players to be struggling, as they are, over an entire month of the schedule? That’s unusual, and surely it’s not here to stay. Lupul, Kessel, Kadri, JvR playing at sub 40-point paces, all at the same time? Clarkson isn’t of the same offensive talent as the other four, but he should be able to pick it up as well and is bound to heat up at some point. No better time than now.

This team wasn’t going to shoot at 12% all season as they did in October, but surely that group of players isn’t going to stay this quiet for much longer, either.

  • vinoa

    Any word on Franson?

  • sniperstar

    Time to wake up boys. The Sharks in the water and can smell blood. Punch it in the nose.

  • Airfreshener

    sniperstar Thought it was the eye?

  • Burtonboy

    vinoa He will test out his leg this morning . Might be ready for tonight

  • vinoa

    Airfreshener sniperstar Nose. Something about nerve endings i think

  • wendelsway1

    GO LEAFS GO!!!!

  • Jimmie Dorey

    Logan Couture was not a second round pick as he was taken ninth overall in 2007, Traded 2007 first round pick (#13-Lars Eller), 2007 second round pick (#44-Aaron Palushaj), 2008 third round pick (#87-Ian Schultz) to Blues for 2007 first round pick (#9-Logan Couture) on 2007-06-22

  • vinoa

    Yaknowwhat I wish we’d stop dumping the puck in the o-zone for line changes. I see other teams’ d bring the puck back into their own end for changes so why can’t ours?

  • wendelsway1

    Shift_Disturber1 wendelsway1 Sure….why not?….I’m always generous when handing out likes…..only fair   lol  :)

  • Mattmark

    The supposition for the past two years has been that the young players Leafs have would grow into the roles required of them and begin playing a more complete game.  Their performance in the playoffs last spring suggested they were making progress in this direction, but they certainly look a bit lost on the ice right now.   The jury remains very much out on whether this is a temporary regression or whether the team really does need a drastic upgrade in personnel.
    It makes sense to hang onto youngsters who have shown well in flashes–Rielly, obviously, but Gardiner, Franson and Kadri as well–and to competent, reliable players like McClelland and Bolland; but whether it’s equally wise to hang onto Orr, McLaren, Fraser, Gunnarson and even Phaneuf is debatable.  The latter two must be among the slowest ‘first’ pairings in the league.  One of the reasons the top six are struggling is that the defense behind them isn’t doing anything resembling organizing the attack, just struggling mightily (and seemingly interminably) to chip the puck out of the defensive zone.
    I don’t think they aren’t trying hard.  They simply aren’t any better than that… and the notion of lavishing $7 million a year on one of them is preposterous.

  • vinoa

    Mattmark Ask Crosby and most other top liners how slow Phaneuf is

  • Leafs rule

    wendelsway1 What she said ,yea .Go Leafs Go and hopes a ref gets in the way Of a leaf slapper tonight,boom a nice shot in the nuts would make me happier

  • vinoa

    Yaknowwhat If we paid him now we’d have to pay for the fact that he’s the only real dman we have. In this d corps he’s worthy of Suter money.

  • mlclearwater

    Lose to Columbus and Buffalo and beat the shit out of SJ, sounds about right, GLG

  • wendelsway1

    Time for the Leafs to buckle down and put together some wins…starts tonight…and fuck the Miley music…..HEY HO…LET’S GO!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbDekaqw3lQ

  • vinoa

    Yaknowwhat vinoa Yeah I`d be happy with a 4 year 7.5/year deal. I’m assuming it’s term or $$. If he takes the same kind of deal as his current cap hit then it’ll be for max term.

  • MaxwellHowe

    TheCanucksnaphook Yaknowwhat vinoa I think Nonis should go long on term and try to keep the cap hit down.  Like $50 million over 7-8 years.  Phaneuf’s game seem suited to longetivity.  He doesn’t play a fleet footed game, rather he uses positioning and anticipation and strength to defend.  Every team needs a vet on D – particularly the Leafs with so many great prospects coming up.

  • vinoa

    Yaknowwhat TheCanucksnaphook vinoa To be fair Clarkson doesn’t have the same credentials as Phaneuf. Clarkson was just the top UFA of the year. Dion’s a #1 defenseman on most teams.

  • Mattmark

    TheCanucksnaphook Mattmark He looks great swooping through centre ice, but he’s regularly beat to the outside in our zone and has no hope of withstanding a determined forecheck… can’t make that first move around the forechecker.  He’s regularly tied up in scrums along the boards that a more nimble defender would have evaded.

  • MaxwellHowe

    TheCanucksnaphook He goes out alone to avoid any possiblity of bodily contact with anyone else.  At this point i think the stiff breeze of a passing skater might put him on the LTIR.

  • Leafs rule

    TheCanucksnaphook re Lupes ,I hope he doesnt come back to soon inspite of us needing him desperatley

  • vinoa

    Yaknowwhat vinoa TheCanucksnaphook Yeah he went against the Burke philosophy. I was surprised with 7 years myself but if he can find his game it may not be as bad.

  • Mattmark

    TheCanucksnaphook Mattmark You can’t rate him ahead of Gardiner, Rielly or Franson for mobility.  Who does that leave?  Gunnar, Fraser and Ranger?  Talking about damning with faint praise… 😉

  • vinoa

    Mattmark TheCanucksnaphook And you can’t rate ANY of them over Dion defensively. Why don’t we just ice a bunch of figure skaters since mobility = winning?

  • MaxwellHowe

    Mattmark TheCanucksnaphook I’ve been skeptical of Phaneuf in the past, and no he isn’t an elite puck moving Dman, no one would seriously suggest otherwise, but he’s +12 playing big minutes against the top lines of the opposition.  Nothing else need be said.

  • Mattmark

    vinoa Mattmark TheCanucksnaphook We can’t be watching the same games.  That Dion is ‘an adventure’ in his own zone was well known before he got here.  Mobility doesn’t equal winning, but it’s an essential prerequisite.  ‘Defense’ doesn’t consist of smacking someone against the boards behind your net and collapsing in a heap.  You have to be able to skate the puck out of your own end, and Dion ranks well behind Gardiner, Rielly and arguably even Franson and Gunnar in his ability to do that.

  • Burtonboy

    Franson and McClement are both on the ice this morning

  • Mattmark

    MaxwellHowe Mattmark TheCanucksnaphook It would be interesting to see what would happen if Carlyle gave some of those big minutes to Rielly and Gardiner.  The team might spend more time up-ice, and that doesn’t exactly hurt you defensively.

  • rustynail

    https://twitter.com/jonasTSN1050https://twitter.com/jonasTSN1050/status/407894622573449216
    As noted earlier, Cody Franson participating in today’s morning skate. How he feels will determine whether he plays tonight.

  • vinoa

    Mattmark vinoa TheCanucksnaphook I guess we’ll just agree to disagree. As a recently converted Dion believer I can say you need to WATCH the games a bit better. He may not be fast but more often than not he’s in position. It’s what makes Chara what he is. Phaneuf was supposed to be the next Stevens not Lidstrom.

  • rustynail

    https://twitter.com/jonasTSN1050https://twitter.com/jonasTSN1050/status/407894903025197056
    James Reimer starts tonight against the Sharks.

  • wendelsway1

    Mattmark MaxwellHowe TheCanucksnaphook Still think one of Gardiner or Rielly should be partnering Dion, leaving the other to partner Gunnar…..roll these 4 as our top 4 for a few games and see what happens.

  • vinoa

    TheCanucksnaphook Wasn’t the best part of having a Western Conference experienced goalie to play against the best Western teams?

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/DavidAlter590https://twitter.com/DavidAlter590/status/407895697477087232
    Nazem Kadri is missing at morning skate.

  • wendelsway1

    TheCanucksnaphook    LOL…….GO REIMS GO!!!

  • rustynail

    vinoa TheCanucksnaphook Bernier is only 1 and 2 against the Sharks with a SV % of .876

  • Burtonboy

    https://twitter.com/koshtorontosunhttps://twitter.com/koshtorontosun/status/407896073538007040
    Nazem Kadri’s grandfather has passed away in London, Ont. Unsure if it has bearing on Kadri’s status tonight https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Leafs&src=hash

  • rustynail

    TheCanucksnaphook rustynail vinoa Reimer is 1 and 1 with .940 SV%

  • ProfessorRance

    Burtonboy I should call my grandparents. Life is too short.

  • Burtonboy

    So Lupul is still on the ice . Interesting

  • Mattmark

    vinoa Mattmark TheCanucksnaphook I’ve been watching games attentively since 1959, thanks.  Chara skates rings around Dion and, though bigger, is far less ponderous in his movements.
    I have no objection to retaining Dion… I haven’t suggested he doesn’t have a role to play on the team.  The point is that it’s not one worth anything like $7 million.  Dion has far too many limitations to warrant making that kind of investment in him.  If he isn’t willing to play for less, we’re better off using the money to upgrade in other areas and making sure we still have Rielly in five years.

  • Mattmark

    wendelsway1 Mattmark MaxwellHowe TheCanucksnaphook Worth a try.

  • wendelsway1

    TheCanucksnaphook Burtonboy Yeah….guess he didn’t get his groin pulled over the weekend…lol  😉

  • ProfessorRance

    TheCanucksnaphook Burtonboy Hopefully he doesnt try to come back too early and injures it again.

  • MaxwellHowe

    Mattmark MaxwellHowe TheCanucksnaphook Nope.  Some here (cough The Truth Hurts cough) consistently question Grdiner’s hockey IQ because he just carries the puck up the ice with no result.  Well, getting the puck up the ice is actually a positve result on its own.

  • sniperstar

    TheCanucksnaphook Could be an interesting line.

  • MaxwellHowe

    wendelsway1 TheCanucksnaphook Burtonboy Whose hearts are more broken by his groin pull.  Leaf fans or his harem?

  • rustynail

    TheCanucksnaphook rustynail vinoa how did it work against Montreal? :)

  • vinoa

    MaxwellHowe wendelsway1 TheCanucksnaphook Burtonboy Cheryl Burke lol

  • Mattmark

    Bruffins Mattmark vinoa TheCanucksnaphook The record of Crosby, Malkin, Ovetchkin, Nash, etc., against Leafs suggests that other team’s ‘elite players’ aren’t getting shut down by Phaneuf very often.