Home Analysis Dion Phaneuf Re-Signs for 7 years, $49milllion

Dion Phaneuf Re-Signs for 7 years, $49milllion

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As reported by TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dion Phaneuf have come to terms on a 7-year contract extension valued at $49-million ($7-million AAV).  This keeps the 28 year old Phaneuf in the fold until the end of the 2020-21 season.  Bob McKenzie is reporting that there is some form of NMC/NTC, which is a typical addendum to UFA-year contracts.  The deal is the second-most expensive contract ever signed by the Maple Leafs (Kessel’s 8-year, $64-million dollar deal signed earlier this season is #1).

The Only Man for the Job

The money should come as no surprise.  Back in October, I wrote that the Leafs would likely spend between 47 and 56 million on a 7-8 year deal for the Captain (between 6.7-7 AAV).  Very simply, the Leafs defense is among the most porous in the league, and Phaneuf is one of the few defenders that can play 25+ minutes a night in three zones.  There’s no one else in the system that can provide what Phaneuf does, and this is the going rate for a defenseman of his pedigree.

Due respect to Morgan Rielly, but even if he is a No. 1 defenseman, it won’t be for at least a few seasons.  The prize UFA defender on the horizon is Dan Girardi, though his availability next summer remains uncertain.  Phaneuf was going to get paid by some team, and Leafs GM Dave Nonis chose to deal with the devil he knew instead of trolling the free agent market for unknowns.

Terms and Conditions

Detractors will point to his meagre and falling point totals since coming to Toronto – he has just 15 points through 39 games this season – as reason for concern.  However, as Elliot Saccucci pointed out the other day, in the world of a rising cap Phaneuf’s dollar figure won’t admit much impediment to building a winner.

His cap number will come in at about 10% of the total cap next season.  That sounds high, but will fall as HRR continues to skyrocket and increase the annual salary cap figures league-wide.  The more legitimate concern should be: just how prudent is it to pay a guy $7-million until he’s 36 years old.

Neon Dion

Phaneuf, selected ninth overall in 2003, has played 261 games for Toronto, recording 35 goals and 92 assists for 126 points over the last 5 NHL seasons.  For his career, he’s tallied 110 goals, 245 assists for 355 points in 639 games.  Since entering the league in 2005-06, Phaneuf ranks sixth in points and third in goals by a defenseman.  Phaneuf has been a finalist for both rookie of the year (2006) and the Norris trophy (2008).

Top Point Producing NHL Defenceman Since 2005-2006

Click on column headings to organize or use the search bar.
Rk
Player
From
To
Tm
GP
G
A
PTS
+/-
PIM
EV
PP
SH
S
S%
1Nicklas Lidstrom20062012DET548913254161732384150013526.7
2Dan Boyle20062014TOT585101291392-154445248114477
3Brian Campbell20062014TOT6276130636741145322909216.6
4Zdeno Chara20062014TOT6341122513631368024168317766.3
5Sergei Gonchar20062014TOT54369293362-234242246111366.1
6Dion Phaneuf20062014TOT638109245354118494761117856.1
7Lubomir Visnovsky20062014TOT54694260354262535539010259.2
8Kimmo Timonen20062014TOT63858293351594082330510595.5
9Duncan Keith20062014CHI647622833451194234215513204.7
10Tomas Kaberle20062013TOT54146293339-40150252109255
11Shea Weber20062014NSH563117195312314395756415097.8
12Brian Rafalski20062011TOT4564925930882172222618305.9
13Andrei Markov20062014MTL4556424330726305194237948.1
14Mark Streit20062014TOT52868236304-55270293729417.2
15Chris Pronger20062012TOT44563235298584922439010096.2
16Jay Bouwmeester20062014TOT6576922729624334722012355.6
17Mike Green20062014WSH46897199296513644650111278.6
18Ryan Suter20062014TOT6304225029241438271419864.3
19Marek Zidlicky20062014TOT57457233290-41502174008946.4
20Dennis Wideman20062014TOT60575210285-543972944212446
21Christian Ehrhoff20062014TOT60964217281684233628012535.1
22John-Michael Liles20062014TOT54867212279-402143235010086.6
23Brent Seabrook20062014CHI639592142731074773820110995.4
24Joe Corvo20062014TOT58279193272191873938213066
25Niklas Kronwall20062014DET5325720926650352312608256.9
26Scott Niedermayer*20062010TOT37160204264-5306213907867.6
27Ryan Whitney20062014TOT48050209259-30381252417057.1
28Bryan McCabe20062011TOT42769189258-3470264309657.2
29Joni Pitkanen20062013TOT46449206255-23440351319045.4

The Scientific Method

For those who look for more than just box cars, some advanced metrics are unearthing a lode of information on Dion Phaneuf’s two-way contrbutions to the Maple Leafs.  One such, THoR (Total Hockey Rating, created by Michael Shuckers and Jim Curro) puts Phaneuf in the top ten among NHL defenders over the last two seasons.  It goes on to suggest that Phaneuf’s contributions over a season add up to almost 4 more wins compared to a league-average player.

More on THoR from http://statsportsconsulting.com: THoR is a two-way player rating that accounts for the all of the on-ice action events when a players is on the ice as well as their linemates, their opponents and where their shift starts.  Each event is assessed a value according to the chance that it leads to a goal.  THoR uses a statistical model to determine the value of each player’s contribution to the overall outcomes that occur while they are on the ice.  The values for THoR in the columns of the files below are given in wins over an average player for an 82 game season.  Count/Number in the files below is the number of plays that a given players was on the ice.

If that doesn’t float your boat, then there are some more traditional fancy stats to consider.  According to Behind the Net, among defenders with at least 20 games played, Phaneuf faces the hardest Relative Corsi quality of competition, the lowest quality of teammates score, while being twice as likely to start a shift in the defensive zone.

Phaneuf is Phaneuf

What we see every night, Phaneuf shouldering the load against increasingly difficult odds, is confirmed in the above numbers.  And it’s no small part as to why he’s been paid $49-million over the next seven years.  His ability to handle those tough and plentiful minutes as time goes by, while also providing above average offense, will determine whether this deal is a great success or failure.  But the money is market value for 2013, and it’s nowhere near the worst deal Nonis has signed a player to in the last 362 days.

321 comments
HeatherRickAkin
HeatherRickAkin

I just looked at Phaneuf's point stats over his NHL career, and I think it is fair to say he is about a 35 pt. guy/year. He is decent, but not outstanding offensively. The same goes for his defensive work ...good but not outstanding. Having said this, I realize that Dion plays most of his minutes against the other teams top forwards. Is he worth $7 mill a year ? To the Leafs, he clearly is . The most outstanding thing about Phaneuf's play is that he is very tough to play against. The Leafs , as a team, are long on talent, but short on grit. The Gardiners and Riellys are pretty to watch (and ,hey, I think they are future cornerstones) , but if we could add a bit more grit on the blueline, it would help. No talents like Gunnar, Ranger and Fraser need to be replaced. Maybe, just maybe, Gleason has enough gas in the tank to help for a season or two . He is a gritty guy, but, can he still play ?

20 Bobby Pulford
20 Bobby Pulford

Re: Phaneuf's Contract Extension.

I was pleased to read Reilly's comment yesterday that Dion had helped him quite a bit this year in moving to an NHL mindset and teaching him that "playing with confidence" was an important aspect to being a professional (I paraphrase). This is the quiet kind of thing that often gets missed by the so called MSM.

This is what a real captain does. Compare this attitude to Spezza's

Hats off to Dion and his new contract and to the organization for the forward thinking.


ShiftyD
ShiftyD

Shit. We got a game now/again

Black_Hawk
Black_Hawk

WOOOOOOOOOOOO thank goodness we got him signed 

Mcost61
Mcost61

Saving the best for last?

wiski
wiski

yeh haaaaaaaaaaaa

peterbleafs
peterbleafs

Man will these stupid holidays ever end!

peterbleafs
peterbleafs

Canada looks very average, but they do battle.  Boy it would have been nice to see Rielly on this team.

Cameron19
Cameron19

Good to have the biggest piece of our D locked up for a long time. Hopefully by year 2, he finally has a worthy partner in Rielly. 

Tim Horton
Tim Horton

Pouliot is a knucklehead how many minors has he taken.

rustynail
rustynail

@peterbleafs mine are done today have to fly to a conference in Sarasota tomorrow morning early

Mcost61
Mcost61

@Cameron19 I wonder if Gunnarson makes Dion look bad a lot of times...

Cameron19
Cameron19

@Mcost61 @Cameron19 Yea, I think Gunnarsson is out of his element next to Phaneuf. You see this every time we go to OT and suddenly Phaneuf is roving all over the ice.  With a more competent partner, he could play like that in regulation as well. 

ingy56
ingy56

@Murph2417 @ingy56 @Cameron19 The uneducated ones for sure, it's too bad really. I've been hard on him in the past but he really does do a good job. Now to get him a partner...

Airfreshener
Airfreshener

@Murph2417 @ingy56 @Cameron19 or dion and franson shouldn;t play together on the PP and need a puck mover on the line because dion moves the puck so slow it goes backwards!



:P